Discussion 2022 AFL: Practice Matches & AAMI Community Series Discussion

[RIAL]

Strongest case against him is that Ablett is the only player I know of who has 5 or more consecutive 120+ seasons.

After that you've got the ridiculous midfield depth that could throw his role around at times.

The other factor to consider is that Treloar and Dunkley both missed chunks of last year and the period that they did both play relatively fit was his worst period. While I'd say those two are such poor durability guys that that outcome seems more likely than not to happen, if it doesn't it could be significant.

But really, these are both pretty weak against arguments.

His for is the proven scoring, proven durability, elite captaincy option, favourable bye (really only Touk, Danger, Laird and Bont right now) and that's a heck of a lot stronger!

Hard to see him not averaging 115+ and being a premium though. I mean that wouldn't be an ideal result but that's still no trade needed.

Another argument I have is that, what does Macrae have to average to actually hurt the non-starters?

For instance, i am looking to start Steele to take advantage that amazing early draw as my captain (alongside Grundy/Gawn/Neale which are all worthy VC/C options to begin with) and look to trade Macrae in mid-season.

Look you might say if Macrae stays at 700k then you are screwed and can never bring him in. But that's literally what I have Rowell for, I mean he was never going to be a keeper right? Let's just say he disappoints and only generate 100k rather than 150k+, that means he rises to mid 450k ish, and at worst Macrae is 250k away?

For me, assuming you have other worthy captaincy options, given the additional trades and a few promising midpricers, Macrae only represents downside to me.

I wouldn't call anything under 125 a pass at his starting price, and a 125 average is a very, very high benchmark.

 

[wogitalia]

Another argument I have is that, what does Macrae have to average to actually hurt the non-starters?

For instance, i am looking to start Steele to take advantage that amazing early draw as my captain (alongside Grundy/Gawn/Neale which are all worthy VC/C options to begin with) and look to trade Macrae in mid-season.

Look you might say if Macrae stays at 700k then you are screwed and can never bring him in. But that's literally what I have Rowell for, I mean he was never going to be a keeper right? Let's just say he disappoints and only generate 100k rather than 150k+, that means he rises to mid 450k ish, and at worst Macrae is 250k away?

For me, assuming you have other worthy captaincy options, given the additional trades and a few promising midpricers, Macrae only represents downside to me.

I wouldn't call anything under 125 a pass at his starting price, and a 125 average is a very, very high benchmark.

There's really only two ways that Macrae punishes non-owners and they probably have to pretty much both happen given one can't really happen without two.

1. Captaincy - If Macrae punches out 160s on all those early games and people can loop him, he's going to be do some damage.

2. He averages ~140, that way he will slightly increase in price and be in a league of his own assuming no one else goes with him.

If he averages 130, he'll be cheaper to upgrade into. If he averages 120, he'll be much cheaper to upgrade into.

The trade boost makes closing those super trade gaps a lot easier. Not only do you have 5 extra trades, which at 100k a trade is 500k which would be enough to basically turn three 550k upgrades into 700k upgrade targets but the boosts make it a lot easier to do it in a single week. You also have the factor that you're less likely to have to miss a strong cash cow target in season with those extra trades which can often be a limiting factor in upgrades.

To be fair, this goes for all the top 4 guys, with Touk the standout for both risk/reward because he's by far the most unique, it sure looks like most people are starting Oliver, Macrae and Steele together.

I'd argue that the trade boost and 5 extra trades probably makes fading those elite midfielders for value premiums elsewhere a stronger option than it's ever been before. It should allow for bigger upgrade targets which makes maximising the starting value and targeting to fill the M1-4 instead of trying to fill the M1-4 to start and filling out with value a more viable strategy.

 

[RIAL]

There's really only two ways that Macrae punishes non-owners and they probably have to pretty much both happen given one can't really happen without two.

1. Captaincy - If Macrae punches out 160s on all those early games and people can loop him, he's going to be do some damage.

2. He averages ~140, that way he will slightly increase in price and be in a league of his own assuming no one else goes with him.

If he averages 130, he'll be cheaper to upgrade into. If he averages 120, he'll be much cheaper to upgrade into.

The trade boost makes closing those super trade gaps a lot easier. Not only do you have 5 extra trades, which at 100k a trade is 500k which would be enough to basically turn three 550k upgrades into 700k upgrade targets but the boosts make it a lot easier to do it in a single week. You also have the factor that you're less likely to have to miss a strong cash cow target in season with those extra trades which can often be a limiting factor in upgrades.

To be fair, this goes for all the top 4 guys, with Touk the standout for both risk/reward because he's by far the most unique, it sure looks like most people are starting Oliver, Macrae and Steele together.

I'd argue that the trade boost and 5 extra trades probably makes fading those elite midfielders for value premiums elsewhere a stronger option than it's ever been before. It should allow for bigger upgrade targets which makes maximising the starting value and targeting to fill the M1-4 instead of trying to fill the M1-4 to start and filling out with value a more viable strategy.

Agree, which is why I am only considering players from that super premium group for captaincy needs.

Much prefer taking 1 - 2 dodgy rookies off the field either in the forward line or down back.

 

[Broar]

Another argument I have is that, what does Macrae have to average to actually hurt the non-starters?

For instance, i am looking to start Steele to take advantage that amazing early draw as my captain (alongside Grundy/Gawn/Neale which are all worthy VC/C options to begin with) and look to trade Macrae in mid-season.

To be honest I think 99% of teams I've seen are starting all of Macrae/Steele/Neale/Grundy and Gawn (or Darcey) some even have an Oliver or Touk as well so I'm going to assume you are paying up for a couple more midpricers instead?

 

[RIAL]

To be honest I think 99% of teams I've seen are starting all of Macrae/Steele/Neale/Grundy and Gawn (or Darcey) some even have an Oliver or Touk as well so I'm going to assume you are paying up for a couple more midpricers instead?

How does having 7 - 8 VC/C options help when you can only utilize 2 on a weekly basis?

Not taking Macrae has allowed me to bring in Stewart down back and Mcgovern up forward, meaning the worst rookies I have on field across all lines are Stephens in the midfield/Mccartin in defence.

If you really want to go for value you can get an additional 2 or more potential keepers with Macrae money (around the Sicily/Cripps/Butters/Thomas/Heeney price range).

 

[Ben's Beasts]

To be honest I think 99% of teams I've seen are starting all of Macrae/Steele/Neale/Grundy and Gawn (or Darcey) some even have an Oliver or Touk as well so I'm going to assume you are paying up for a couple more midpricers instead?

I’m in the 1% then 😱

 

[Rowsus]

To be honest I think 99% of teams I've seen are starting all of Macrae/Steele/Neale/Grundy and Gawn (or Darcey) some even have an Oliver or Touk as well so I'm going to assume you are paying up for a couple more midpricers instead?

Not to be a pedant, but there is not one single player in 70% of teams, so I can't see how any combination of 4 or 5 players can be in even 30% of teams, let alone 99%!

 

[randomcliche]

To be honest I think 99% of teams I've seen are starting all of Macrae/Steele/Neale/Grundy and Gawn (or Darcey) some even have an Oliver or Touk as well so I'm going to assume you are paying up for a couple more midpricers instead?

Not to be a pedant, but there is not one single player in 70% of teams, so I can't see how any combination of 4 or 5 players can be in even 30% of teams, let alone 99%!

Agree 100% that that post should be taken to the cleaners…but you better than anyone would know that picks are correlated! I’d expect there would be high correlation between Daicos, Cogs, Neale, Grundy amongst SCS users. I’d suspect that these 4 will have very high ownership when the top ranked teams come out.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

To be honest I think 99% of teams I've seen are starting all of Macrae/Steele/Neale/Grundy and Gawn (or Darcey) some even have an Oliver or Touk as well so I'm going to assume you are paying up for a couple more midpricers instead?

Not to be a pedant, but there is not one single player in 70% of teams, so I can't see how any combination of 4 or 5 players can be in even 30% of teams, let alone 99%!

Agree 100% that that post should be taken to the cleaners…but you better than anyone would know that picks are correlated! I’d expect there would be high correlation between Daicos, Cogs, Neale, Grundy amongst SCS users. I’d suspect that these 4 will have very high ownership when the top ranked teams come out.

In many ways, you are all right. When we consider all teams, it typically is about 70% used as the benchmark, rather than 100%.

Those list of players are very common.

When looking at the % ownership it does appear quite a few teams running with 4 mid premiums +650k, are they realistic those teams with rookies that will not play or just going with weak rookies. Will Kelly is one that is cheap, just looks like a 40 role. These a re the type of players we typically trade early.

Shocking
Remember watching that famous ball v Gatting like it was yesterday.

So sad, hadn't realised until these posts. I remember watching that ball and that series.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

I’m in the 1% then 😱

Where the difference Ben? R2 with a Witts or other choice?

 

[Tex]

I feel genuinely more comfortable starting Macrae than Steele.
I would love all 3 but one has to give way to present a good structure across the lines enabling a couple of $200k - $300k pics.
I have Macrae & Oliver then Neale and Cripps for value. The first week makes my vc choice difficult as Melbourne play the the Bulldogs but after that it's all systems go.

 

[donnybuang]

How does having 7 - 8 VC/C options help when you can only utilize 2 on a weekly basis?

Not taking Macrae has allowed me to bring in Stewart down back and Mcgovern up forward, meaning the worst rookies I have on field across all lines are Stephens in the midfield/Mccartin in defence.

If you really want to go for value you can get an additional 2 or more potential keepers with Macrae money (around the Sicily/Cripps/Butters/Thomas/Heeney price range).

Anyone ever tried using just the same two as VC C loop each week, all year?

 

[tso]

I have Crae, Steele, Oliver, Cripps, Neale, Dunks, Treloar, Butters, Cogs, Berry, Gawndy, Whitfield,
Sicily, Hewett, JFH, Daicos, Rochelle, Brodie as locks.
3 cheap defender spots up for grabs. Hinge, Gibcus, Sinn as tentative picks so far.

 

[Shaunpro1]

Agree 100% that that post should be taken to the cleaners…but you better than anyone would know that picks are correlated! I’d expect there would be high correlation between Daicos, Cogs, Neale, Grundy amongst SCS users. I’d suspect that these 4 will have very high ownership when the top ranked teams come out.

I think his point was valid to be honest, its not the pure ownership numbers that count its the percentage of the top 1000 that owns a player, theres plenty of people that have no idea playing this game.

 

[Shaunpro1]

I have Crae, Steele, Oliver, Cripps, Neale, Dunks, Treloar, Butters, Cogs, Berry, Gawndy, Whitfield,
Sicily, Hewett, JFH, Daicos, Rochelle, Brodie as locks.
3 cheap defender spots up for grabs. Hinge, Gibcus, Sinn as tentative picks so far.

Got a similar squad, relying on 3 defender rookies that all seem to have pretty dodgy JS or durability seriously worries me, likely being able to swing Daicos and McGovern at Round 6 provides some comfort though.

 

[Eagling]

Nothing wrong with not starting Macrae; whilst he is absolutely elite you have to personally decide on how many premium mids you're starting; if it's one or two, then any of Steele, Oliver, Miller, Neale or even Titch might be prioritized by an individual coach over Macrae.

 

[Juzzo]

Anyone ever tried using just the same two as VC C loop each week, all year?

Probably came close one year with Gawndy.

 

[Professor]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499866775982424066

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/HoneyballAFL/status/1499866775982424066

 

[Professor]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499840855141539844

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/HoneyballAFL/status/1499840855141539844

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499844378680037377

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/HoneyballAFL/status/1499844378680037377

 

[Juzzo]

Got a similar squad, relying on 3 defender rookies that all seem to have pretty dodgy JS or durability seriously worries me, likely being able to swing Daicos and McGovern at Round 6 provides some comfort though.

When these players gain DPP in the mids/for (Daicos, Gov), I'm not sure what the plan is to swap lines. Is it trading out say an underperforming rookie who has made bugger all cash or just swapping them from def to mid/for, eg. Kelly, O'Driscoll, McCartin. Or is it your first up/down trade? Serious question, just wondering.