Position 2022: Ruck Discussion

[Buddy Starmart]

 

[Santoz]

Anyone else ready to talk about the Grundy pick?

Concerned regarding he had that shoulder/neck injury a year ago & whether it was the same shoulder he was dumped onto late, basically went straight off & didn't return?

 

[Shannon]

Ruck contests attended today for GWS:

Matt Flynn 45
Braydon Preuss 27

 

[The Saltshaker]

Anyone considered this tactic for rucks? Just appeared for me while i was shuffling a few guys around

View attachment 40235

Be careful with those glitches, i was able to choose Luke Ryan as a fwd last year in team picker and saved my team with him up fwd. When SC went live i went to create my team it kept saying Luke Ryan can not be picked for that position and wouldnt allow me to pick my team. Had to create new email account

 

[The Night Manager]

Is 35% an actual rule or just a guide? Surely Marshall would've hit 35% last year. Even when Ryder didn't play, St Kilda played a 2nd ruck in most games, plus he had a couple games where they eased him back from injury in the forward line. Yet no DPP. Petracca and Fyfe are two others who would've hit 35% forward time but no DPP.

On the other hand, Taranto only went forward in the last month and received DPP, and Coleman played one home and away match as a defender and also was given DPP.

These are only a few examples, I'm sure there are many more.

Rule.
He didn't.
They didn't.

 

[Tranterpants]

Thanks for your thoughts.

I am uncertain who my 2nd Ruck will be. Having trouble trying to split Marshall and McInerney. Because of the 'unknowns', it is hard to lock one in.
If going by history, then McInerney is the one likely to play more games, therefore, by missing less games, should be the better scorer in the long run. But who knows.

Not sure why McInerney's average score was low pre-Bye (78), but after the Bye, he averaged 110.
Last year was only McInerney's 4th year playing AFL, maybe after the Bye last year, he has now evolved into a good ruckman???

McInerney's last 7 games, he averaged 117 playing against top Ruckmen (MEL, WCE, COL). From 3 years ago, he played 19, 17 and 21 games.
Marshall's last 7 games, he averaged 114 playing against only one top Ruckman (COL). From 3 years ago, he played 20, 17 and 13 games.

EDIT:
just read .......Marshall is wearing the no contact Fluro cap at Saints training today......... Got word from a Saints player on the weekend, some sort of issue with his ribs............

Mate, I'm 100% in the same boat here... Thought Marshall was good on the weekend, same as Big O and loved his back end of the year... Think the cash saved by geting these two can help with the debarcle down back...
Leaning Big O... Just!

 

[Uncle Drew]

Rule.
He didn't.
They didn't.

Thanks for your concise reply, I guess I was mistaken. Are player positional percentages from last year available? Would be good to see who is close to making the cut.

 

[The Night Manager]

Thanks for your concise reply, I guess I was mistaken. Are player positional percentages from last year available? Would be good to see who is close to making the cut.

If there is a spreadsheet available, I haven't seen it. That sort of info might have been available back when the Prospectus was around. Every now and then CD release the actual % for a particular player on social media or NewsLtd articles when a specific player not getting DP doesn't make sense/ is questioned but generally each seasons DP's are released during pre-season without breakdown %s

 

[Bermi]

Mate, I'm 100% in the same boat here... Thought Marshall was good on the weekend, same as Big O and loved his back end of the year... Think the cash saved by geting these two can help with the debarcle down back...
Leaning Big O... Just!

As I said, I am still undecided who is going to be my 2nd ruckman. Grundy, looks to me, the safest 1st ruckman selection.

I currently have Gawn and McInerney as my top choices for the 2nd ruckman.
I see Gawn as a safe selection, but am paying for what he is worth. He is $148k more expensive than McInerney.
I see McInerney, who is currently priced to average 94, will increase in price.

I'm waiting to see how many low priced Rookies are going to play round 1 before I make my final selection.
If I can use the $148k to upgrade a Mid-priced Player to a Gun, then McInerney I will select.
If the $148k is not needed, then I will select Gawn.

One reason I like both players, is that they are low injury risk players. I don't trust Marshall or Darcy.

 

[Blue Bloods]

Preuss got a one match suspension, makes it hard to select him R3 now.

 

[RIAL]

In 2021,

75% of Gawn's 150+ scores come from games with <70% CBA
100% of Gawn's 140+ scores come from games with <80% CBA

Gawn's games with the highest ruck minutes were as follows:

• Round 1 - 87% CBA - 93 points
• Round 2 - 88% CBA - 137 points
• Round 4 - 88% CBA - 135 points
• Round 9 - 96% CBA - 117 points
• Round 19 - 88% CBA - 125 points

When Gawn receives >80% CBA, he had an average of 121.4 compared to a seasonal average of 120.8.

So to summarize, my conclusion is that when Gawn plays fewer ruck minutes, his ceiling is much higher, but the volatility also increases. In terms of seasonal average, he doesn't seem to be affected by Jackson playing more ruck at all.

 

[Toothless Tigers]

Is Witts a viable R2 with Preuss as an R3?

 

[dlanod]

Is Witts a viable R2 with Preuss as an R3?

I'd do this but have a definite plan to upgrade. With his history of topping out at an average of 90-100, even if he improves because the Suns' mids are better and can convert HOs to HTAs I can't see him competing with the top handful. However that could still get him to ~$500k+ and set up an upgrade to whoever ends up the form ruck, which is a nice return when you can spend that money elsewhere in your starting team.

 

[NT.Thunder]

I'd do this but have a definite plan to upgrade. With his history of topping out at an average of 90-100, even if he improves because the Suns' mids are better and can convert HOs to HTAs I can't see him competing with the top handful. However that could still get him to ~$500k+ and set up an upgrade to whoever ends up the form ruck, which is a nice return when you can spend that money elsewhere in your starting team.

I agree, I also think that English forward provides a level of security which really negates a need to run Preuss for the extra coin and gives solid cover if he gets injured and flexibility if an early trade is needed.

 

[PressurePoint]

Is Witts a viable R2 with Preuss as an R3?

Really impressive score from 54% game time. Wish he wasn't playing NickNat and Gawn for the first two games as we won't get anywhere near as many HTAs like last night, still more changes to consider

 

[mwross91]

In 2021,

75% of Gawn's 150+ scores come from games with <70% CBA
100% of Gawn's 140+ scores come from games with <80% CBA

Gawn's games with the highest ruck minutes were as follows:

• Round 1 - 87% CBA - 93 points
• Round 2 - 88% CBA - 137 points
• Round 4 - 88% CBA - 135 points
• Round 9 - 96% CBA - 117 points
• Round 19 - 88% CBA - 125 points

When Gawn receives >80% CBA, he had an average of 121.4 compared to a seasonal average of 120.8.

So to summarize, my conclusion is that when Gawn plays fewer ruck minutes, his ceiling is much higher, but the volatility also increases. In terms of seasonal average, he doesn't seem to be affected by Jackson playing more ruck at all.

This is amazing insight. I think he's a must have.

I'm leaning towards Marshall at R2. The extra cash is really difficult to part with with limited rookies and i'm enjoying a 4-4-2(if marhsall is premo)-2 structure

I think without Ryder, he scores 100+ and with Ryder he almost has more of a chance of going big with the prospect of kicking a few bags. Risk is injury but that's the same with most big men really.

 

[Connoisseur]

In 2021,

75% of Gawn's 150+ scores come from games with <70% CBA
100% of Gawn's 140+ scores come from games with <80% CBA

Gawn's games with the highest ruck minutes were as follows:

• Round 1 - 87% CBA - 93 points
• Round 2 - 88% CBA - 137 points
• Round 4 - 88% CBA - 135 points
• Round 9 - 96% CBA - 117 points
• Round 19 - 88% CBA - 125 points

When Gawn receives >80% CBA, he had an average of 121.4 compared to a seasonal average of 120.8.

So to summarize, my conclusion is that when Gawn plays fewer ruck minutes, his ceiling is much higher, but the volatility also increases. In terms of seasonal average, he doesn't seem to be affected by Jackson playing more ruck at all.

Wouldn’t a better indicator for the overall picture be ruck contests attended rather than centre bounce attendances?

 

[RIAL]

Wouldn’t a better indicator for the overall picture be ruck contests attended rather than centre bounce attendances?

I see where you are coming from, but I think the answer is no.

A lot of the times rucks engage in contests out of convenience rather than genuinely playing as the #1 ruck in that timeframe.

E.g. Gawn could be playing behind the ball as a sweeper, and if the ball enters D50, he will take the ruck contest even though Jackson would've been rucking for that period.

 

[Connoisseur]

This is amazing insight. I think he's a must have.

Which achieves the intended purpose. It is dependent on the user not being able to differentiate between what a centre bounce attendance and a ruck contest attended is and their importance and correlation to scoring.

Centre Bounce Attendance: Starting inside the centre square at a centre bounce, either as the ruckman or as one of three midfielders.
Ruck Contest Attended: Starting as one of the two ruckmen competing for the ball at a stoppage.

It also relies on the assumption that ruck minutes are solely formed by the % of centre bounces attended rather than the % of ruck contests attended.

 

[Professor]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500987154956447744

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/HoneyballAFL/status/1500987154956447744