Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus

Are you back for another year? I am hoping so as your responses often provide good "re think " material.

Assuming you are back, I am after your thoughts on 2 players.

1 - Luke Jackson - Can he average enough to become a keeper (as a forward)
2- Tom Powell - Breakout potential?

Cheers

Hi Mudflap,
second one first. Tom Powell. Too early for him to breakout, really. For every Clayton Oliver, there are probably 40-50 "could he jump to Keeper level in his 2nd year?" that just disappoint you. At $368,500 he pretty much needs to reach Keeper level to be called a successful pick. To be a successful Stepping Stone he needs to reach around $470k, and if he does that, he's close enough to a F6 Keeper. One of the rules of picking your starting team, and even early trading, is don't get players who your highest/best hope is, that they will fill a season ending D6/F6/M7-8. It causes problems for the selections above them if you do that. How, some may ask? The safety net for your starting Keepers is, that if they fail to reach expectations, they might still fill a D5-6/F5-6/M6-8. If you already are filling those positions, then you either have no safety net, or you will end up with a team with for example M1, M2, M3, M4, M5, M8, M8, M8 trying to compete with Coaches who have a full, and proper Midline, M1-8.

Dogga has to be a chance, but it comes with a side warning. If Jackson does get to being a good, consistent SC scorer, it will probably come at the expense of Gawn. It's very hard to see both Jackson and Gawn being good picks.
Jackson Rounds 1-19 - 17 games 10 HO's/game, 0.53 Goals, SC 66.9
Jackson Rounds 20-GF - 7 games 12.1 HO's/game, 1.0 Goals, SC 84.9
Gawn Rounds 1-19 - 18 games, 32.3 HO's/game, 0.44 Goals, SC 120.5
Gawn Rounds 20-GF - 7 games, 31.6 HO's/game, 1.1 Goals, SC 120.6
So while we saw Jackson increase his SC by 18 in the last 7 games, and Gawn maintained his, it should be noted that Gawn's Goals increased, what I would call significantly. Of course, most of that is the 5 he kicked in one game. If you are looking for Jackson to get into that high 90's area, you would think at least part of that increase has to come from eating some of Gawn's SC pie. At $389,800 he, like Powell, is too expensive to be a Stepping Stone. Unlike Powell, his DPP has a more direct effect. M/F is handy, R/F might be gold, if the time comes you need it!
Can he do it? Yes, no doubt. Will he do it? I'm thinking he will look like he is there, in patches, but ultimately, will come up just short, of what you might hope for. I think his success might hinge on, if you ended up using him as Ruck coverage for 2-3 games. If yes, bingo, he's a success. If no, he probably leaves you feeling a bit meh. I'll be cheering for him, but likely not starting him.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus, do the extra trades mean it is now a reasonable play to include injury prone players with big upside like Fyfe,Josh Kelly and others?

Hi Socrates2,
the simple answer is no. This game is largely comparative. We start with the same salary, the same number of trades etc. The triple risk in starting a Fyfe are injury scores, prolonged outs ie. He will miss 1 week (so you hold him), then it turns out he misses the next week as well, and now you have a BIG dilemma. Finally, the near inevitable season ending need to trade him out. You still end up largely a trade behind, and depending on the timing of the need to trade him out, an upgrade behind the teams around you. Having the 5 extra trades this year doesn't fix those 2 problems. Comparatively, you are still worse off, than those that didn't start him . Like every season, you just have to decide, will you get enough from them, will they get deep enough into the season, to make the risk of starting them worth it? Each to their own, but I won't be starting Fyfe, and to me, he is the new poster boy for "Start them, or forget them" players.

 

[Rowsus]

I'll jump in. Having to trade out an injured player still puts you behind those who are building their teams and gathering points. I would still focus on durable players so you can use the extra trades to upgrade earlier or continue to upgrade when others have run out of trades.

Agreed. You still have to compare your progress, to the progress of the teams around you, irrespective of the extra trades.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,
I'm looking forward to your comments again this year.

Good to read that Denmark will end all Covid restrictions on Feb 1. Not surprised, as Denmark emerges from the pandemic with one of the best records of handling Covid in Europe.

I'm considering starting my own 'Questions For' Thread to help SuperCoaches to make decisions, using the link below:
Wheel Generator | Random Name Picker | Spin Wheel

I'm sure it would do well! Don't forget the Wall Street Journal did a monkey test, and the monkeys throwing darts outperformed the experts 39% of the time. What the WSJ didn't report was, the long term result, after they finished publishing there experiment, was closer to 50/50!!! So if monkeys can outperform experts 40% of the time, I'm sure a spinning wheel would be just as successful!

 

[Beg2Differ]

Not many consulting the oracle so far so thought I better remedy that situation.

I am interested in you assessment of the Ruck situation this year. I am really struggling to find even one selection I am comfortable with.

Gawn - Jackson factor and wonder if we will see a bit of a Cotchin decline with him.
Grundy - Was poor to finish last year (after I traded him back in). Don't think he is great in the centre square and not doing as much around the ground as he was.
Darcy - Injury history and durability concerns. Not cheap.
NicNat - low TOG and relies on centre bounce for most points. Doesn't score a lot around the ground.
Goldy - Aging and declining steadily (still love him).
Marshall - Might get stuck forward when Ryder plays.
ROB - appears to have stagnated and even dropped a little.
English - Still very speculative
Jackson - Unproven and it is a big jump to an acceptable keeper score
Witts - Don't mind at the price but won't likely score well enough to be a keeper.
Preuss - Don't think you can rely on him on field due to durability issues and Flynn/Briggs lingering about.

Maybe we have just been spoiled in recent years with stand out rucks scoring at historically unprecedented levels and now we are seeing a bit of a regression to the mean and a lot more uncertainly like we see in all other positions.

I would be very interested in your thoughts and the direction you might be taking.

 

[Bermi]

Not many consulting the oracle so far so thought I better remedy that situation.

I am interested in you assessment of the Ruck situation this year. I am really struggling to find even one selection I am comfortable with.

Gawn - Jackson factor and wonder if we will see a bit of a Cotchin decline with him.
Grundy - Was poor to finish last year (after I traded him back in). Don't think he is great in the centre square and not doing as much around the ground as he was.
Darcy - Injury history and durability concerns. Not cheap.
NicNat - low TOG and relies on centre bounce for most points. Doesn't score a lot around the ground.
Goldy - Aging and declining steadily (still love him).
Marshall - Might get stuck forward when Ryder plays.
ROB - appears to have stagnated and even dropped a little.
English - Still very speculative
Jackson - Unproven and it is a big jump to an acceptable keeper score
Witts - Don't mind at the price but won't likely score well enough to be a keeper.
Preuss - Don't think you can rely on him on field due to durability issues and Flynn/Briggs lingering about.

Maybe we have just been spoiled in recent years with stand out rucks scoring at historically unprecedented levels and now we are seeing a bit of a regression to the mean and a lot more uncertainly like we see in all other positions.

I would be very interested in your thoughts and the direction you might be taking.

Please include McInerney.

 

[Herbie66]

Please include McInerney.

Ssshhh (but interested in reading his response)

 

[donnybuang]

Not many consulting the oracle so far so thought I better remedy that situation.

I am interested in you assessment of the Ruck situation this year. I am really struggling to find even one selection I am comfortable with.

Gawn - Jackson factor and wonder if we will see a bit of a Cotchin decline with him.
Grundy - Was poor to finish last year (after I traded him back in). Don't think he is great in the centre square and not doing as much around the ground as he was.
Darcy - Injury history and durability concerns. Not cheap.
NicNat - low TOG and relies on centre bounce for most points. Doesn't score a lot around the ground.
Goldy - Aging and declining steadily (still love him).
Marshall - Might get stuck forward when Ryder plays.
ROB - appears to have stagnated and even dropped a little.
English - Still very speculative
Jackson - Unproven and it is a big jump to an acceptable keeper score
Witts - Don't mind at the price but won't likely score well enough to be a keeper.
Preuss - Don't think you can rely on him on field due to durability issues and Flynn/Briggs lingering about.

Maybe we have just been spoiled in recent years with stand out rucks scoring at historically unprecedented levels and now we are seeing a bit of a regression to the mean and a lot more uncertainly like we see in all other positions.

I would be very interested in your thoughts and the direction you might be taking.

I will too.

Thoughts on Cripps Rowsus. Can he return to a 110+ average?

 

[Rumbler]

Heya Rows! Hope you're well.

Probably a left-field question but what do you think of Ollie Wines as a starting pick? Just something I've been kinda mulling over...

 

[MC's Mix]

Hi Rowsus,

I'm interested in your thoughts on the following players, for both this year and next as well. Obviously picking breakout players is challenging enough, let alone being any more specific!
*Disclaimer - interested in these players for my SC draft keeper league, either to keep or to grab in the draft this year.

Tom Green
Lachie Ash
LDU
Luke Jackson
Tarryn Thomas
Errol Gulden

Thanks in advance

 

[Rowsus]

Not many consulting the oracle so far so thought I better remedy that situation.

I am interested in you assessment of the Ruck situation this year. I am really struggling to find even one selection I am comfortable with.

Gawn - Jackson factor and wonder if we will see a bit of a Cotchin decline with him.
Grundy - Was poor to finish last year (after I traded him back in). Don't think he is great in the centre square and not doing as much around the ground as he was.
Darcy - Injury history and durability concerns. Not cheap.
NicNat - low TOG and relies on centre bounce for most points. Doesn't score a lot around the ground.
Goldy - Aging and declining steadily (still love him).
Marshall - Might get stuck forward when Ryder plays.
ROB - appears to have stagnated and even dropped a little.
English - Still very speculative
Jackson - Unproven and it is a big jump to an acceptable keeper score
Witts - Don't mind at the price but won't likely score well enough to be a keeper.
Preuss - Don't think you can rely on him on field due to durability issues and Flynn/Briggs lingering about.

Maybe we have just been spoiled in recent years with stand out rucks scoring at historically unprecedented levels and now we are seeing a bit of a regression to the mean and a lot more uncertainly like we see in all other positions.

I would be very interested in your thoughts and the direction you might be taking.

Now that we have had the Community series, the picture is slightly clearer, but still not transparent.
Gawn - he's looking leaner (if that's possible), and he's moving a little faster (ran Cripps down from behind!) as well as covering ground better. I don't think we got the full picture of how Jackson is going to affect him, and one thing I haven't heard mentioned is, that in the Community game there was no Petty or May playing, meaning structurally, Gawn pretty much had to drop back, to take intercept Marks. I think he scores more doing that, than going Forward, and with those two back he'll likely play a little more Forward, than he did in that Carlton game. The fact he looks even fitter, and is moving so well convinced me to put him in my team, after I was avoiding him.
NicNat - Can't have him. Getting older, not as good below his knees as he once was. WC Midfield decimated. Can't see an upside to him.
Grundy - I think I read somewhere the new Coach wants him to have a greater Midfield impact, and with that in mind, they worked on his fitness/endurance over the summer. New Coach could inspire him to recapture his old ways. He's currently in my team.
Marshall - if we remove Round 4 from last season, which was his first game back after a stress fracture in his foot, then he averaged 121 without Ryder in the team, and about 90 with Ryder. I wouldn't touch him as a Ruck until the Ryder picture is clearer, but if he gets DPP, and Ryder struggles, then he comes right into calculations.
Goldy - too old, starting to get a partner to help him out. Pass.
RO'B - looked bigger and slower. Can't see him taking that next step, which is what you'd want, if you started him.
English - DPP puts him on the table, for sure! Would be surprised if he ended up a top 2 or 3 Ruck, but could end up a decent Fwd, and save youpoints in 2 or 3 Rounds, with his DPP. Not out of the question he gets into my Fwd line. Not there as we speak though.
Jackson - will look the goods at some stage of the season, but I can't see him being a non-selection you'll hugely rue!
Witts - definitely a potential Stepping Stone, if that's the direction you want to take. Not for me though.
Preuss - I just can't have him. 18 games in 5 seasons. If you can get him to string 6 or 7 games together, then he'll likely make around $180-$200k. But it's a big IF! In 5 seasons he has never played 5 consecutive games!

Good luck working out the right answer!

 

[Rowsus]

Please include McInerney.

I think he'll have some really good scores, but then he'll throw in a few flakey ones too. I'm just not sure he can push into the top tier, given that flakiness. At $500k, I'd want a bit of consistency, that I think he'd lack.

 

[Rowsus]

I will too.

Thoughts on Cripps Rowsus. Can he return to a 110+ average?

Before the Comminity series game, I'd have said 90/10 No.
After that game I'll say 50/50. I'll be pretty surprised if he can go say 21/115. Forced to put numbers on him, I'll say 19-20/106-108. At his price, a good number of people will call that a win!

 

[Rowsus]

Heya Rows! Hope you're well.

Probably a left-field question but what do you think of Ollie Wines as a starting pick? Just something I've been kinda mulling over...

Heya Rumb,
hit a new high last season. Given it was his 9thseason, and 8/game higher than his previous best, add in Brownlow Medalists don't have a great record of increasing or even holding their SC average, he's a pass from me. Has spike season written all over it, but what an amazing season it was!

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

I'm interested in your thoughts on the following players, for both this year and next as well. Obviously picking breakout players is challenging enough, let alone being any more specific!
*Disclaimer - interested in these players for my SC draft keeper league, either to keep or to grab in the draft this year.

Tom Green
Lachie Ash
LDU
Luke Jackson
Tarryn Thomas
Errol Gulden

Thanks in advance

Hi MC's Mix,
sorry for the late reply, you have probably had your draft already.
Thomas was in my early teams for SC, but no longer have any early interest in him.
The problem with rating players for Drafts, is knowing how deep your draft goes!
Is it 8 Coaches Drafting 30 players each, or 12 Coaches drafting more than that?
In the first scenario half your players don't get picked.
Really, it dpends a lot on structure etc, but I'll Thomas, Green, LDU, in that order, but I wouldn't be going too early on any of them.
Sorry I wasn't much help.

 

[The Saltshaker]

Gday Rowsus, interestingly i just read an article on movie lines that suffer from "The Mandela Effect"

Apparently the line from Jaws is "Youre going to need a bigger boat"

Im with you mate i always thought it was "we're" 🤔

There were a few there that threw me off like Field of Dreams - "if you build it HE will come" (not they?)

Pfft 👎


Just dropped in to say gday knackers, hope youre well 🤘

 

[Beg2Differ]

Now that we have had the Community series, the picture is slightly clearer, but still not transparent.
Gawn - he's looking leaner (if that's possible), and he's moving a little faster (ran Cripps down from behind!) as well as covering ground better. I don't think we got the full picture of how Jackson is going to affect him, and one thing I haven't heard mentioned is, that in the Community game there was no Petty or May playing, meaning structurally, Gawn pretty much had to drop back, to take intercept Marks. I think he scores more doing that, than going Forward, and with those two back he'll likely play a little more Forward, than he did in that Carlton game. The fact he looks even fitter, and is moving so well convinced me to put him in my team, after I was avoiding him.
NicNat - Can't have him. Getting older, not as good below his knees as he once was. WC Midfield decimated. Can't see an upside to him.
Grundy - I think I read somewhere the new Coach wants him to have a greater Midfield impact, and with that in mind, they worked on his fitness/endurance over the summer. New Coach could inspire him to recapture his old ways. He's currently in my team.
Marshall - if we remove Round 4 from last season, which was his first game back after a stress fracture in his foot, then he averaged 121 without Ryder in the team, and about 90 with Ryder. I wouldn't touch him as a Ruck until the Ryder picture is clearer, but if he gets DPP, and Ryder struggles, then he comes right into calculations.
Goldy - too old, starting to get a partner to help him out. Pass.
RO'B - looked bigger and slower. Can't see him taking that next step, which is what you'd want, if you started him.
English - DPP puts him on the table, for sure! Would be surprised if he ended up a top 2 or 3 Ruck, but could end up a decent Fwd, and save youpoints in 2 or 3 Rounds, with his DPP. Not out of the question he gets into my Fwd line. Not there as we speak though.
Jackson - will look the goods at some stage of the season, but I can't see him being a non-selection you'll hugely rue!
Witts - definitely a potential Stepping Stone, if that's the direction you want to take. Not for me though.
Preuss - I just can't have him. 18 games in 5 seasons. If you can get him to string 6 or 7 games together, then he'll likely make around $180-$200k. But it's a big IF! In 5 seasons he has never played 5 consecutive games!

Good luck working out the right answer!

Thanks Rowan

The community series has helped. I have gone from not knowing who to pick to not knowing who to leave out.

Gawn looks a safe bet now and don’t think Jackson will have a huge impact. You do make a good point regarding May and Petty missing though.

Still unconvinced by Grundy but betting against him will be a big risk. Not sure I am prepared to take it.

Don‘t mind the Preuss R2/3 with a swinging English option either. Gives you the option of eventually getting the Ruck you missed (like a Darcy).

Lots to overthink in a week.

 

[warewolves]

G'day Rowsus.
There is a widespread yardstick that this forum applies to rookie & value picks in SC.
Namely that they have to make a profit of $150K to be deemed a success.
I don't remember ever seeing the logic behind this golden rule, but I have a recollection that it is somehow tied to the value of a trade.
Now we have 5 extra trades, you would think each trade wasn't as precious as before, so I am wondering whether 150K needs a recalibration - perhaps to around 130K (150K *30 / 35)

 

[The Saltshaker]

Rowsus,

Remember a thread you started on players over 28yrs old scores dropping off from peak

Not sure how pressed for time you are but you think you can recreate the magic with last years top performers or last 2years as well as a few top picks this year? Any exemptions? Any goldilocks zones players

Reason i ask this is one of the great things about supercoach scores was the analysis and stat crunching you RARELY got anywhere else - still lotta great coaches, contributors, but many of the sides looking similar (eye test, pricing and scores obviously contribute to this) and opinion. I fear some of us (cough cough myself included may be falling into some old habits traps) that a genius like yourself might be able to share that we can all benefit from.


In fact, any of your old work that you really like/holds true that you can dust off for these tired eyes with some fresh players lists, rules, or umpiring changes analysis etc im pretty sure i and others would appreciate.

Even an index of some links you may have to some of your gems please post away - im sure the community has a few faves they in turn could find and share/request ❤️

Apologies for the broad request (but you know what i mean get rowdy 😉👍)

Cheers

Saltshaker 🤘

 

[The Saltshaker]

Strangely enough my Facebook page just brought up something I shared

"theres a theory about not having any premiums in your side that has the first bye (Rd 12) --- the idea being that you trade them in for round 13"

I dont know where i read that?

Thoughts?