Discussion 2022: Rate My Team

Meltingpot38 · 9 Mar 2022

Here’s my latest iteration before rookies ruin the plans
Happy to have 3 of the big 4 mids, and Cripps at M5 looks very appealing. To allow that backline D4-6 is a risk, question is whether it is a calculated one. If 3 of the 5 from D4-8 can get games for a while it should be ok.
Would love Rachelle instead of Durdin, may do that if another $123k mid rookie presents and I can downgrade Stephens.
Contingency plans are Cripps > Rowell or Berry to fund rookie upgrades elsewhere.

$27k in bank. Thoughts welcome!

Herbie66 · 9 Mar 2022

stephen said:

Cheers

I am sure once all these < $ 124k players are announced to debut , I will completely change my bench in any case.

Not really convinced on Hinge or Gibcus tbh.

De Koning or Kelly if named would be handy with the McCartin swing.

Can't see Sinn breaking into that Port 22 , could be completely wrong as well.

It's funny 7 has been relatively quiet with the football news so far (not sure if the club's have told them to actually tone it down or not).

From what I have heard/read Hayes will play once Lycett is injured , seems more a ruck-forward so Finlayson was always going to back up Lycett.

If St Kilda Hayes (very good SANFL player , keen to see if he can perform at the next level or not) or Dixon is named Round 1 will pick one of them instead.

Still think I need Macrae (or Steele or the Tuk Tuk).

Only watch 3-4 games a weekend now and actually hate the "modern" game so my opinions/thoughts could be completely way off track now as well.

Just hope I can have a competitive starting team for once and actually try and enjoy the SC season.

Erek22 · 9 Mar 2022

Meltingpot38 said:

Here’s my latest iteration before rookies ruin the plans
Happy to have 3 of the big 4 mids, and Cripps at M5 looks very appealing. To allow that backline D4-6 is a risk, question is whether it is a calculated one. If 3 of the 5 from D4-8 can get games for a while it should be ok.
Would love Rachelle instead of Durdin, may do that if another $123k mid rookie presents and I can downgrade Stephens.
Contingency plans are Cripps > Rowell or Berry to fund rookie upgrades elsewhere.

$27k in bank. Thoughts welcome!
View attachment 40516 View attachment 40517

Midfield is dynamite, I think we are short on one defender rookie at this stage who will hopefully turn up soon

jobeywatto · 9 Mar 2022

Shaunpro1 said:

I really don't see how you can start more than 2 of the uber premiums this year. You're just robbing yourself of the excellent value that the midfield provides. The midfield has the best rookies - JHF, Daicos and Ward can all average 80, which you aren't going to get out of any other rookie. Excellent value in Berry, who is the best of all the 220k-280k picks. Rowell and Cripps, who are both potential 105+ players at a heavy discount (I think Cripps will probably push 110 if he stays fit). Neale, an absolute lock. You need 1 uber premium for captain reasons, but I definitely think you can live without any of the others if you use the money right.

For example, the money saved on going Steele to Rowell allows you to directly upgrade Hinge to Ridley/Short/Ryan types. Assuming Hinge goes at 65 and Ridley/Short/Ryan 105, that's a 40 point gain right there, and one less sketchy rookie on the field. Do you think Steele will outscore Rowell by 40? I don't think so.

Obviously yes, it's going to be a struggle to upgrade to these guys throughout the season, which is why I'm keeping a 2 uber premo team in my back pocket just in case I chicken out. The lack of startable rookies in DEF and FWD means you need to find value somewhere, and this year it's in the mids.

Meltingpot38 · 9 Mar 2022

jobeywatto said:

Fair points, however as you touched on its the upgrade to these Uber premos that will be so hard during the season, especially with lowered cash gen due to more expensive rookies. It’s pretty safe that Touk, Macrae, Oliver and Steele will be in the top 8 midfielders end of season. Seems daunting to have to bring in 3 of these during the season if their consistent scoring keeps up and you may need 2 downgrades to upgrade to 1. Granted, Cripps and Rowell types could be used as a stepping stone.
Defensive and forward premiums more like to throw in a few bad games here and then to make them more accessible. Will be interesting how it plays out.

Herbie66 · 9 Mar 2022

Macrae , Steele , Neale , Cripps , Rowell , Berry , JHF , Daicos would be the midfield I would love to start.

Now I end up with Sicily @ D1 🤔

Sicily , Hewett * , Blakey , Chapman , Bowey , Gibcus (?) / McCartin * , SDK *

BC · 9 Mar 2022

Feels like a touk short but yeh happy with this. Hope Xerri doesn't play tbh so I can afford Dean to Gibcus if need be without having to downgrade someone. Really hoping Brodie is worth the $$$

Herbie66 · 9 Mar 2022

BC said:

Nick Stevens or Cooper Stephens ?

No JHF.

Dunkley - Butters - then 4 is interesting , allows a stronger defence.

Herbie66 · 9 Mar 2022

stephen said:

Might be better to start with Comben or Edwards as R3 if we are expecting Xerri to get R status added , ideal link.

Shaunpro1 · 9 Mar 2022

jobeywatto said:

I really don't see how you can start more than 2 of the uber premiums this year. You're just robbing yourself of the excellent value that the midfield provides. The midfield has the best rookies - JHF, Daicos and Ward can all average 80, which you aren't going to get out of any other rookie. Excellent value in Berry, who is the best of all the 220k-280k picks. Rowell and Cripps, who are both potential 105+ players at a heavy discount (I think Cripps will probably push 110 if he stays fit). Neale, an absolute lock. You need 1 uber premium for captain reasons, but I definitely think you can live without any of the others if you use the money right.

For example, the money saved on going Steele to Rowell allows you to directly upgrade Hinge to Ridley/Short/Ryan types. Assuming Hinge goes at 65 and Ridley/Short/Ryan 105, that's a 40 point gain right there, and one less sketchy rookie on the field. Do you think Steele will outscore Rowell by 40? I don't think so.

Obviously yes, it's going to be a struggle to upgrade to these guys throughout the season, which is why I'm keeping a 2 uber premo team in my back pocket just in case I chicken out. The lack of startable rookies in DEF and FWD means you need to find value somewhere, and this year it's in the mids.

Have to take into account when you are trying to get those ubers you didnt start in other people will be adding to the ones they already have, that advantage you gain early in the season can very quickly disappear.

BC · 9 Mar 2022

Herbie66 said:

something had to give when I went Caldwell to Rowell.

jobeywatto · 9 Mar 2022

Meltingpot38 said:

While that's true, the midfield value picks could make up for it by being more consistent and higher scorers, and generating more money . Say you have to start an extra backline rookie to fit in 2 of the uber premos. Unless they produce a spike game at the right time, I don't see Gibcus or McCartin scoring well enough to get to 300k in price in time for upgrades. Say they max out at 250k-275k, you're going to need to find another 250k to upgrade them to a 105 defender. If Daicos/JHF/Ward max out at 350k (given their scoring potential and starting prices, it's what you'd hope for), then you'll also need roughly 250k to get to an uber premo. So it can balance out.

Of course it's more likely that a Crisp-type premium puts in a stinker and drops to a juicy price than it is for an uber premium midfielder, but it's also more likely that a Gibcus/McCartin rookie puts in a stinker and has their price rise stall, meaning they could become just as hard to upgrade, with the added downside of having to wear their bad scores on-field.

In the end it's going to come down to how you use the money. For me, getting a risky DEF or FWD rookie off the field is worth the risk of going with a Rowell instead of a Miller/Oliver.

Woodsey · 9 Mar 2022

Herbie66 said:

BC said:

The 2-0-4 FWDs is what I’m running with at the moment. Actually think it might end up quite a popular structure. Risky having the 3 200k (excluding Cogs from the risk assessment) fwd players but I think having 3 on field def rookies is riskier.

It’s a trade off I’m happy with at the moment. The plan is though that if a couple extra mid rookies are named ill drop a mid premo, run Neale @M2 and upgrade Xerri.

Herbie66 · 9 Mar 2022

Woodsey said:

Something has to give , just need to work out which line.

Do like all 3 of Dunkley , Heeney & Butters though so it might be a case of starting Dunkley as a mid.

Coniglio looks a given , so then weighing up 3 of Brodie , Curnow , McGovern & Xerri.

3 onfield defender rookies , I can't find one I would be confident in fielding.

A week to keep changing & tinkering.

jobeywatto · 9 Mar 2022

Shaunpro1 said:

True. But while you're worrying about how to upgrade your 60 average Hinge/Gibcus, I'm chilling with my 105 Ridley and 105 Rowell. If Berry, JHF, Ward, Daicos and Rowell continue to score like they have in pre-season, they'll be much easier to upgrade.

The worst case scenario would be Cripps or Rowell (or both) just completely failing and only averaging <95 while everyone else is enjoying a 120 Steele/Oliver/Miller instead. That would cause some headaches.

Shaunpro1 · 9 Mar 2022

jobeywatto said:

Everyone will have Berry,JHF,Ward and Daicos so Im not sure how you're seeing that as an advantage in any strategy.

jobeywatto · 9 Mar 2022

Shaunpro1 said:

Everyone starts with the same rookies, but we use them in different ways. Say in your example, you start with an uber premium mid and I don't. When it comes time to upgrade Ward, I need to bring in Steele whereas you can trade Ward for a fallen J.Kelly for, say, $100k less, because you started with an extra must-have uber premium that I didn't. So, same rookie, but you're 100k ahead of me now, right? But I will make back this value later on when you have to upgrade Hinge to Ridley and I don't, because I already have him, because I started Rowell instead of Steele, who scores much better than Hinge (more than the difference between Steele and Ridley) and makes just as much money.

My point is that, given the scoring potential of the mid rookies, it's going to be easier to turn a mid rookie into an uber premium than it is to turn a DEF or FWD rookie into a premium. So, given the abundance of value in the mids this year, I think going with 1 less uber premium and starting a value pick like Cripps or Rowell to get a DEF or FWD rookie off the field is worth it. Usually I'd start the safe 120 premo mid and the 60 rookie, but the rookies outside the MID are so bad this year I don't think you want to be starting any more than you have to. I think having to bring in an extra uber premo mid using Rowell is easier than having to bring in an extra DEF premium given how bad the DEF rookies are. I'd rather have to upgrade Rowell to Steele than Hinge to Ridley, for example. And I think the Rowell/Ridley combo wins points-wise too.

And Hinge is now a doubt for Round 1 so the DEF rookie selections get even worse.

Juzzo · 9 Mar 2022

Can start any 2 of Macrae, Steele, Touk and Oliver.
Starting Touk and Oliver gives a more even bye spread:
4 premos/keepers missing R12; 5 missing R13; 4 missing R14

wogitalia · 9 Mar 2022

Shaunpro1 said:

I don't know why you'd be comparing them to be honest.

If someone has those 3 premiums then the person with Cripps and Rowell should still have two of them and those two as well as ~5 points a week invested somewhere else for the Macrae coach to be able to get a 123k rookie in for the extra slot.

So assuming Macrae averages 130 and the M8 rookie you replace averages 65 you've got 195 on field points.

If Cripps and Rowell are healthy, admittedly that's some IF, then you're targeting 115 and 105, which is 220, plus the 5 points extra cash, is 225 a week, so 30 points better off over those 10 rounds, still have two of the ultra premiums to captain and you're not picking the scrap pile rookie mid at M11 so you'd hope that leads to better cash generation as well.

If that equation plays out, I'm pretty damn happy to have paid 800k for my M6 and M8 most likely.

Now combining two guys with dirty durability records is a treacherous path that only the bravest walk and the need for contingency plans is pretty extreme here.

I'd say you probably have about 85% of simulations actually ending in neutral or in the Macrae pick's favour fwiw. I'd say even the most optimistic coach has got to have it at 50% that Rowell gets hurt and 50% that Cripps gets hurt, that's 25% chance both get hurt which is a trainwreck outcome. They probably need 10 games to actually make enough cash to start getting into the breakeven scenarios where they're not keepers but they're not failures either. Whereas the evidence says Macrae is maybe a 15% chance of getting hurt and a 5% chance of a major injury, probably similar odds of averaging less than 120 or a severe drop (say 105ish).

If Rowell and Cripps works, they're owners wont even notice the player they don't have... but there are so many scenarios where it blows up in their faces as well

NT.Thunder · 9 Mar 2022

There's a strong narrative around Cripps and Rowell working, but what if?