Discussion 2022: Rookie Discussion

How many $140,000 to $208,000 players do you currently own?

  • 9+

    Votes: 39 26.4%
  • 8

    Votes: 17 11.5%
  • 7

    Votes: 28 18.9%
  • 6

    Votes: 33 22.3%
  • 5

    Votes: 20 13.5%
  • 4

    Votes: 7 4.7%
  • 3

    Votes: 4 2.7%
  • 2

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 1

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 0

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    148
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Rookie Rankings

Have gone all players below $220,000.

All listed at "highest value" position So R/D/F/M in order this year given so few DEF options.

DEF

1. McCartin - Role was good, rotating in the intercept gig with his brother, took several kick-ins, looks to get involved around the ground. 70 on the high end of his average I think but will have bigger games to balance out the quieter ones.
2. Hinge - Role was stronger than other options but didn't produce for 4 quarters which has become a theme. JS is middling.
3. SDK - Price is a factor here, but he showed good scoring ability and selected alongside all of Blicavs, Henry and Kolo is a good sign. Obviously misses this week though.
4. Gibcus - Scoring a bit more limited but outproduced others and he's the cheapest name left.
5. Sinn - Has to be picked, obviously, but has significantly better scoring potential than all but maybe McCartin and probably him also. I expect he gets first shot at Duursma's spot and has the skill to stick around. No point grabbing until round 4 though barring donuts.
6. Skinner - Expect he and Clurey will fill Aliir/McKenzie spots, potentially good role if he replaces Aliir, which he's the most obvious fit to do as he's shown the most as an intercept player, albeit at SANFL level. Could get a lock-down role and use Jonas though. Senior body and better scoring profile than those below, and cheaper with DPP.
7. DGB - Job security over the other guys but he's a bad option.
8. Smith - Slightly better scoring potential but JS is also very poor.
9. Gardner - Don't.

MID

1. Daicos - Must have. Genuine chance to be a D6 after DPP change. Worst case should make a lot of cash.
2. D. Stephens - Cheaper, great role, played well, JS is solid.
3. JHF - Role is solid, JS is excellent, scoring potential is good. Expensive is his issue.
4. Ward - Role was very good, JS is solid, scoring potential is excellent. Expensive and injury a bit of a worry. JS also could become an issue if he doesn't produce in the role as half their list would like to play that role.
5. Hough - JS is his issue long term but he's cheap, his role was very good and he played very well, despite his size he was one of the most physical Eagles.
6. Davies - Role and price his issue, he scored great on the weekend but played pretty much pure forward and they don't face the worst team in the league every week so will be starved. Wouldn't shock me if this is his highest score for the season. Rate him very highly though and he's an injury from a better role and it all changing (see Martin below...). If he was 123k, he'd be 3rd here though for perspective.
7. Mead - JS will be an ongoing issue, his role was much better than expected which I think was probably largely due to Rozee and Gray being injured and very limited (his role became good after starting bad) so wouldn't expect that to continue. Even with a vastly improved role he still spent most of the game forward and wont score well there. He's cheap though.
8. MacDonald - Role was actually solid but I just can't see how he stays in the side when everyone returns, just can't see any reason to pick him ahead of Day, Impey, Bramble, Breust and Howe when all ready. Can make some cash if he does hang around for 6 or so weeks more.
9. Soligo - Role wasn't bad and the half dozen things he did were actually really good but he only did a half dozen things and that's a concern. Hard to see him playing 22.
10. Sheldrick - He played well but I can't see how he stays in the side this week or long term if he does hold on. At some other clubs he'd be much higher but Papley, Lloyd and Warner all to come back over the next few weeks.
11. Owens - Be surprised if he plays, role was bad and he played even worse. Did do a few things in Q4 at least but doesn't really tick any boxes you want ticked right now.
12. Sharp - Started as sub, didn't do much after coming on and expensive.

Several of the M/F would slot into the top 5 here, imo.

RUCK

1. Hayes - Obvious, he just scored more in one round than the next 3 combined... Did a lot of good things but is going to have to make it as a forward not a ruck in the Saints side and will have to back it up now with a bit more attention against sides with multiple KPD available. This week is the test.
2. Dixon - Cheap, JS is poor to terrible with Darling likely back this week he could well go straight out. Still, the other options cost twice as much.
3. Preuss - He's just better than the other two, Flynn was solid though but they could use a BIG target and midfield dominance is their best path to scoring, imo, so makes sense to play 2 genuine rucks. Of course this is Cameron who has never gone for midfield dominance in his coaching career so...
4. Lynch - I think he was out for McEvoy anyway but now has to get back in but I also think he's a Reeves injury or bad form from #1 ruck chance.
5. Williams - He's just not good, honestly I'd be seeing what Dixon can do in the ruck this week and dropping Williams because Williams struggled to beat Chol, who is in the very worst 2nd rucks going around.

FWD

1. Martin - You can't predict the one player who is in his way going down in the first few minutes but you have to respect the guy who takes that opportunity and flies with it. He just bought himself a month, the role is now available for ~8 weeks. He's basement priced. The 27 disposals is the more important part of his score, that puts a solid 80+ target on the board. Must have.
2. Xerri - His role was good, his output was good and he should grow. CCJ getting dropped would make things a bit tidier probably but I still don't mind the 3 talls. They seemed to work it out better in the 2nd half also.
3. Durdin - Role was very good, scored very well, ultimately he's 40k cheaper and I think a similar scoring prospect to Rachele.
4. Rachele - JS is now excellent, scoring potential I think he just showed the peak, role is not good and they wont face one of the weaker sides every week. Mostly he's expensive and I still think he's a mid 60s guy as more of a high end target. He'll get a lot more attention defensively also.
5. Naish - I thought he was really solid for the Eagles. His JS is sketch, he's expensive but he's got the best scoring potential of the group left.
6. F. Maginness - This one is hard, he finished well but he was really poor the first 3 quarters, his role was good but similar to Macdonald I don't know how he holds off the same names. Basically though with a strong role and good scoring potential he beats the rest despite that.
7. O. McDonald - Role was sound but expect more lockdown in general, scored well but think that's a high end score for him. JS should be solid if he keeps playing well. Would be higher at 125k.
8/9. Ginnivan/McCreery - I think they're basically the same thing, JS is sound as long as they play well, roles aren't terrible but aren't good, would call it a roaming forward pocket type role but neither had the range of Durdin for example. If they were 125k they'd move up though on JS.
10. Henry - Too expensive but think his JS should be better than most of this list, just a hard role and no real scoring history.
11. Ralphsmith - I just don't see the role for him, didn't make it with Vlastuin out and he's back in a couple, Rioli and Short were two of their better players. His scoring potential at HB is higher than basically anyone on the list but think he plays HF if he plays right now. He's expensive as well.
12. Baldwin - It's a bad role and the JS is terrible, I thought he tried hard in trying circumstances but Francis, Stringer and Jones will be back and he's very much a slow burn type who might not get the chance to burn.
13. Bedford - Sub is a bad sign, he's not a replacement for Salem either long term. Worth watching though, showed some good signs.
14. Lazzaro - I actually really like him as a player but he's 200k, was the sub and the injury was not a type for type so he probably goes back to the sub. Just can't see how he gets a good role.
15. Evans - Sub as well, also not like for like injury, albeit forward for forward at least, but it's a one week injury. Bad role at best.
So I’ve got M1-4 covered with Treloar, Heeney, Butters and Cogs all looking good, also have Hayes, Rachelle and Durdin, this only leaves me with Hollands to swap out with probably either Xerri or Martin (if I wait a week for him to be on the bubble). Any thoughts on who would be best to grab?

Xerri now despite his higher price? Or wait a week for Nic Martin to be on the bubble at $102k?
 
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So I’ve got M1-4 covered with Treloar, Heeney, Butters and Cogs all looking good, also have Hayes, Rachelle and Durdin, this only leaves me with Hollands to swap out with probably either Xerri or Martin (if I wait a week for him to be on the bubble). Any thoughts on who would be best to grab?

Xerri now despite his higher price? Or wait a week for Nic Martin to be on the bubble at $102k?
I'd get Xerri now.
Then trade a Ward/Hough/Owens/Mead type to Martin via DPP next week and switch Rachelle to the midfield.
 
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I'd get Xerri now.
Then trade a Ward/Hough/Owens/Mead type to Martin via DPP next week and switch Rachelle to the midfield.
Cheers, I have Hough, Soligo and Ward on the bench in the mids so that’s definitely an option, although I’d probably keep Ward. Also could move Hayes to the ruck bench and punt Dixon, although I’d prefer to keep him playing as a forward rookie on field.
 
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If you could take one of Stephens or Rachele who would it be?

Might have to fade one
I'd lean Rachele ever so slightly for two reasons. Job security the first and the second is the DPP which is very valuable.

I'd say Rachele is as close to a 10/10 for JS as a rookie can be, he's clearly better than all their other options for that position, I mean he basically outscored all of their other options entire season goal output in his debut.

Stephens isn't getting any DPP and his JS is perform or go out. McInerney and Papley to come back in, I think Papley is for Wicks but Stephens is definitely on the very short list of names that McInerney comes in for and if he doesn't perform whoever it is that goes out when he's back is going to be knocking on the door

I also think that Rachele the midfielder is an experiment that needs to continue for Adelaide, their total lack of dynamism in the midfield is VERY telling and a huge issue for them long term and he's a very obvious answer for it and also played very well in it.

Gun to my head, I'd start Stephens over Rachele when both named but realistically they're both 6+ week rookies because of where they're starting from.

Will say that if ~20k means something for your team that tiebreaker is also very relevant.

So I’ve got M1-4 covered with Treloar, Heeney, Butters and Cogs all looking good, also have Hayes, Rachelle and Durdin, this only leaves me with Hollands to swap out with probably either Xerri or Martin (if I wait a week for him to be on the bubble). Any thoughts on who would be best to grab?

Xerri now despite his higher price? Or wait a week for Nic Martin to be on the bubble at $102k?
As @Montyjnr said I'd be getting Xerri for sure. He's got low chance keeper potential if his role holds up, there's not really anything that guys like Ceglar, McEvoy, Stanley, Flynn or Lycett do that he hasn't already shown similar ability to do and those guys were all ~90 averages last year which is definitely a potential F6 level from his starting point. I think he's a must have as long as things continue how they currently project, he's been R1 in both games now to confirm the preseason role.

I'd be grabbing Martin as well, even if it meant benching a Rachele or moving Brodie/Dunkley to the mids and fielding them there because his role should continue. Merrett out only firms his role as competitors go to replace him inside leaving that glorious wing/HF role wide open that he fed on. Even if it's a "sideways" move of a Hough/Soligo/Owens/Durdin to do it (barring one of them putting up 100 this week obviously).

Wouldn't be getting Martin until he's on the bubble though. Always injury or suspension that can derail you going early even if he looks very safe for a few weeks on the job security front.
 
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I'd lean Rachele ever so slightly for two reasons. Job security the first and the second is the DPP which is very valuable.

I'd say Rachele is as close to a 10/10 for JS as a rookie can be, he's clearly better than all their other options for that position, I mean he basically outscored all of their other options entire season goal output in his debut.

Stephens isn't getting any DPP and his JS is perform or go out. McInerney and Papley to come back in, I think Papley is for Wicks but Stephens is definitely on the very short list of names that McInerney comes in for and if he doesn't perform whoever it is that goes out when he's back is going to be knocking on the door

I also think that Rachele the midfielder is an experiment that needs to continue for Adelaide, their total lack of dynamism in the midfield is VERY telling and a huge issue for them long term and he's a very obvious answer for it and also played very well in it.

Gun to my head, I'd start Stephens over Rachele when both named but realistically they're both 6+ week rookies because of where they're starting from.

Will say that if ~20k means something for your team that tiebreaker is also very relevant.



As @Montyjnr said I'd be getting Xerri for sure. He's got low chance keeper potential if his role holds up, there's not really anything that guys like Ceglar, McEvoy, Stanley, Flynn or Lycett do that he hasn't already shown similar ability to do and those guys were all ~90 averages last year which is definitely a potential F6 level from his starting point. I think he's a must have as long as things continue how they currently project, he's been R1 in both games now to confirm the preseason role.

I'd be grabbing Martin as well, even if it meant benching a Rachele or moving Brodie/Dunkley to the mids and fielding them there because his role should continue. Merrett out only firms his role as competitors go to replace him inside leaving that glorious wing/HF role wide open that he fed on. Even if it's a "sideways" move of a Hough/Soligo/Owens/Durdin to do it (barring one of them putting up 100 this week obviously).

Wouldn't be getting Martin until he's on the bubble though. Always injury or suspension that can derail you going early even if he looks very safe for a few weeks on the job security front.
Cheers mate, thanks for the reply.
 
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Let's do the rookie rankings :)

Note I didn't see the entirety of Hawks vs Port (watched about 85%) and I watched Freo vs St Kilda live and heavily distracted but they basically had one rookie anyway so not a big influence.

I'm not going to bother with the Eagles fill-ins until they're on the bubble but Black is a very good option if he hangs around.

Using 220k again.

DEF

1. McCartin - No change here, role is good, scoring is good, job security is very good.
2. Hinge - No change except he scored this week. McCartin is his equal but cheaper with better JS.
3. SDK - No change, assuming he comes back in otherwise he's a floating donut :LOL: He's cheap with DPP and scored well while playing in R1, puts him ahead of the others.
4. Gibcus - It's going to be a long haul but he'll have a strong game or two where he scores well. JS is good and he'll grow. Also on the bubble which is more valuable than other options.
5. Wanganeen-Milera - Scored pretty well, role was pretty good, cheaper than most of the other names and they won, so that helps likelihood of playing again.
6. Skinner - DPP and cheaper than Sinn and scored better in first hitout, mature body and has a role for a while though Clurey is looming somewhere and a bad loss doesn't help.
7. O'Driscoll - Showed enough in his quarter to earn another game I think but not a like for like injury so it's a hard play. At this point there's not much on offer.
8. Smith - On the bubble so higher but he's a 50 point scorer with bad job security priced at 177k, I can't see any real reason to grab him though, just pay extra for Bowey.
9. Sinn - Hard to see him staying in after a poor performance in an awful loss and he's at a premium. Wouldn't bite until bubble.
10. DGB/Gardner/Joyce - No, just find the extra for Bowey.

Kreuger would be in there at 5 for mine but injury is TBC.

I'd be finding the cash for Bowey if at all possible for everyone below SDK on this list this week if making a move (Gibcus only because he's close in price).

MID

1. Daicos - No change, best role, best scoring potential, genuine keeper potential with DPP coming.
2. JHF - Moves up because the Thomas and LDU injuries should open a very lucrative role for him this week in the all important 3rd game score, he played genuine midfield for the 2nd half last week and scored/played very well, maybe Phillips comes in but reckon he's ahead of him. Could also have it in round 4 for Thomas depending on that injury.
3. Stephens - Did nothing to change my opinion, his spot in the 22 is his issue. Role and scoring potential are very good as long as he holds in the 22.
4. Ward - Role was excellent this week, better than last and I genuinely considered moving him ahead of Stephens, only reason I didn't is Stephens already has one exit score banked and thus can be in and out faster if anyone is looking for a trade target. If his role continues, and given how well he played in the 2nd half it should, he will probably move to 2nd on this list (first once Daicos goes to the backs!). I see a lot of people thinking of trading him out when I think people should be looking to trade him in. He's a very strong chance to be the second best cash generator behind Daicos of all the rookies.
(Rachele/Naish are here)
5. Davies - If he was cheaper he'd be right alongside the others but his role isn't quite as good as the others with a more forward based role. Did get limited midfield burn but not enough to really shift the equation. He's at that "I'd be happy to have him but not want to burn a trade to get" level. Positive is he should get FWD DPP and he's got two good scores on the board. Has the potential for big scores and I think he's an injury from a very good role, basically same place as JHF moved into this week.
(HRS here)
6. MacDonald - He's cheap and it's hard to make big changes after a win like that but I still don't like the JS, he played much better this week though. He's mostly relevant as a sideways bailout for Hough/Owens/Soligo if needed and can't get anyone higher on this list. If he can hang around the threshold is so low he'll be good but the doubts for making it to round 6 remain, he's a quiet game in a loss from going out.
(Maginness here)
7. Mead/Soligo - I wouldn't be trading in either, if they get named I'd be debating if you trade them out, if they're your weak link then you should, they're ahead of the others as on bubble.
8. Sharp - Two games, two bad scores and he's expensive, be very surprised if he holds his spot.
9. Sheldrick/Cook/Owens/Hough - Cook/Hough the pick but would wait until on the bubble before thinking about any.

For mine, the top 6 are worth having and MacDonald is probably only that if you already have or can't find a better option for Soligo/Owens/etc.

RUCK

1. Hayes - Nothing to change this.
2. Preuss - He'll play eventually, if he's named this week as R1 I'd hold, if he's named with Flynn I'd consider, if he's not named I'd be moving him to one of the other options, Hayes to me isn't a reliable on field option so no issue having him at R3, Xerri with DPP in R7 will free him as well and Preuss would be available for Hayes as a downgrade around then probably.
3. B. Williams - Bubble and in this range but I wouldn't bother, he didn't great as the #1, didn't look good doing it and NicNat is back this week most likely. If he was 120k it would be a different equation but he needs to score at the level he hit at R1 this week against one of the weaker rucks.
4. Dixon - If he comes back...
5. Jamieson/Lynch - Maybe if they get to the bubble but don't like either because of JS/Role/Everything and price for Lynch.

FWD

1. Martin - Scoring potential and cash generation BUT I wouldn't be grabbing him this week unless you need to field him badly.
2. Xerri - He strongly reaffirmed my feelings on him this week and role is even better. Must have and would be my highest priority this week if you don't have him, of all rookies to be clear because he's got low end keeper potential in his role.
3. Rachele - More Durdin moving down than him moving up, played very well again and his midfield move should stick, at least partially, they need him there. I wouldn't be moving heaven and earth to get him but he's definitely someone to get if it's possible. JS is elite, can score well.
4. Naish - Very strong game on the weekend. JS is an issue and it's so hard to read when they have 10 players out but he'd be very unlucky to get dropped, in their best few on the weekend and is the one fill-in who plays a position they genuinely need.
5. Durdin - Still the best "cheap" option after Martin, JS is solid and he can score, especially when they face a few of the weaker sides.
6. Ralphsmith - This is a very hard slot, his role is probably short term as Rioli outperformed him on the weekend, but as long as he has it he'd be right near the top of this list, this is kind of the balance for thinking it wont last. No idea when Vlastuin returns but he's a major issue.
7. Ginnivan - His role is ok, he's very expensive but he's got 119 in his rolling average for 2 weeks and that puts him very high on this list. JS is good. If he was 120k he'd be near the top but that 80k+ lost gain hurts him as he needs to keep scoring big, I rate the Pies higher than most but Geelong is a big challenge this week.
8. McCreery - Same story basically, more expensive and with a worse score and a very similar role.
9. Maginness - Job security is a problem, imo, and at a premium that's an issue. Another on the fine if you have them but wouldn't trade them in list.
10. Henry - He played very well on the weekend and scored 50, his role/scoring potential at 220k is a major problem. JS is good right now though.
11. Lazzaro - He played better than his score but that's two terrible scores at a steep premium.
12. Pedlar/Gollant/Bedford/Dow/Baldwin/Evans - Wait for bubble, I don't think any present strong options but a big 2nd game could change the equation.

Oscar McDonald would be in the middle somewhere based on how he's played and scored but injury update needed and wouldn't be grabbing on that at his price.

Given most people's structures I'd be surprised if many are going beyond #4 on this list and like Bowey down back I think you try and find the cash for Brodie and possibly even Curnow if targeting the HRS/Ginnivan options, albeit there are worse options and neither of those would shock me as a strong outcome pick, it's just I think they're just as likely to bust as boom and you prefer to take a more limited safe bet on rookies generally.

*EDIT* - Noticed I'd left Durdin off, so added him :)
 
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As @Montyjnr said I'd be getting Xerri for sure. He's got low chance keeper potential if his role holds up, there's not really anything that guys like Ceglar, McEvoy, Stanley, Flynn or Lycett do that he hasn't already shown similar ability to do and those guys were all ~90 averages last year which is definitely a potential F6 level from his starting point. I think he's a must have as long as things continue how they currently project, he's been R1 in both games now to confirm the preseason role.
Just to play devil's advocate, Xerri was in 13/23 CBA's Round 1 and 12/22 CBA's in Round 2. I think he's in a pretty clear 50/50 ruck share, more like a Nank/Soldo share than any of the examples above.

Not sure you can read into anything from the game against West Coast without NicNat. The Round 1 game is probably more indicative of his scoring (61 DT / 79 SC) and even that was against a ruck in his 6th game (who lost his relief ruck very early into the game)

I am very confident he won't be a forward keeper or average anywhere near 90 (even if Goldy gets injured, but he'd be closer in that example)

The 120 in his cycle though almost makes him worth of the trade in, same logic with Bowey.
 
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Just to play devil's advocate, Xerri was in 13/23 CBA's Round 1 and 12/22 CBA's in Round 2. I think he's in a pretty clear 50/50 ruck share, more like a Nank/Soldo share than any of the examples above.

Not sure you can read into anything from the game against West Coast without NicNat. The Round 1 game is probably more indicative of his scoring (61 DT / 79 SC) and even that was against a ruck in his 6th game (who lost his relief ruck very early into the game)

I am very confident he won't be a forward keeper or average anywhere near 90 (even if Goldy gets injured, but he'd be closer in that example)

The 120 in his cycle though almost makes him worth of the trade in, same logic with Bowey.
Oh no doubt, he's a very low end chance, I'd be far more surprised if he made it than if he didn't, but there's definitely a scenario where he can do it. He just needs the confidence to really do what he can do, he's a very good player especially in the follow up at stoppages which certainly helps but it's more that he has that bit of a chance, combined with the cash generation on the table, that make me say he's pretty much a must have. He could fail miserably from here but if that happens you go down with everyone, if he does hit keeper and you don't have him, good luck!
 
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Let's do the rookie rankings :)

Note I didn't see the entirety of Hawks vs Port (watched about 85%) and I watched Freo vs St Kilda live and heavily distracted but they basically had one rookie anyway so not a big influence.

I'm not going to bother with the Eagles fill-ins until they're on the bubble but Black is a very good option if he hangs around.

Using 220k again.

DEF

1. McCartin - No change here, role is good, scoring is good, job security is very good.
2. Hinge - No change except he scored this week. McCartin is his equal but cheaper with better JS.
3. SDK - No change, assuming he comes back in otherwise he's a floating donut :LOL: He's cheap with DPP and scored well while playing in R1, puts him ahead of the others.
4. Gibcus - It's going to be a long haul but he'll have a strong game or two where he scores well. JS is good and he'll grow. Also on the bubble which is more valuable than other options.
5. Wanganeen-Milera - Scored pretty well, role was pretty good, cheaper than most of the other names and they won, so that helps likelihood of playing again.
6. Skinner - DPP and cheaper than Sinn and scored better in first hitout, mature body and has a role for a while though Clurey is looming somewhere and a bad loss doesn't help.
7. O'Driscoll - Showed enough in his quarter to earn another game I think but not a like for like injury so it's a hard play. At this point there's not much on offer.
8. Smith - On the bubble so higher but he's a 50 point scorer with bad job security priced at 177k, I can't see any real reason to grab him though, just pay extra for Bowey.
9. Sinn - Hard to see him staying in after a poor performance in an awful loss and he's at a premium. Wouldn't bite until bubble.
10. DGB/Gardner/Joyce - No, just find the extra for Bowey.

Kreuger would be in there at 5 for mine but injury is TBC.

I'd be finding the cash for Bowey if at all possible for everyone below SDK on this list this week if making a move (Gibcus only because he's close in price).

MID

1. Daicos - No change, best role, best scoring potential, genuine keeper potential with DPP coming.
2. JHF - Moves up because the Thomas and LDU injuries should open a very lucrative role for him this week in the all important 3rd game score, he played genuine midfield for the 2nd half last week and scored/played very well, maybe Phillips comes in but reckon he's ahead of him. Could also have it in round 4 for Thomas depending on that injury.
3. Stephens - Did nothing to change my opinion, his spot in the 22 is his issue. Role and scoring potential are very good as long as he holds in the 22.
4. Ward - Role was excellent this week, better than last and I genuinely considered moving him ahead of Stephens, only reason I didn't is Stephens already has one exit score banked and thus can be in and out faster if anyone is looking for a trade target. If his role continues, and given how well he played in the 2nd half it should, he will probably move to 2nd on this list (first once Daicos goes to the backs!). I see a lot of people thinking of trading him out when I think people should be looking to trade him in. He's a very strong chance to be the second best cash generator behind Daicos of all the rookies.
(Rachele/Naish are here)
5. Davies - If he was cheaper he'd be right alongside the others but his role isn't quite as good as the others with a more forward based role. Did get limited midfield burn but not enough to really shift the equation. He's at that "I'd be happy to have him but not want to burn a trade to get" level. Positive is he should get FWD DPP and he's got two good scores on the board. Has the potential for big scores and I think he's an injury from a very good role, basically same place as JHF moved into this week.
(HRS here)
6. MacDonald - He's cheap and it's hard to make big changes after a win like that but I still don't like the JS, he played much better this week though. He's mostly relevant as a sideways bailout for Hough/Owens/Soligo if needed and can't get anyone higher on this list. If he can hang around the threshold is so low he'll be good but the doubts for making it to round 6 remain, he's a quiet game in a loss from going out.
(Maginness here)
7. Mead/Soligo - I wouldn't be trading in either, if they get named I'd be debating if you trade them out, if they're your weak link then you should, they're ahead of the others as on bubble.
8. Sharp - Two games, two bad scores and he's expensive, be very surprised if he holds his spot.
9. Sheldrick/Cook/Owens/Hough - Cook/Hough the pick but would wait until on the bubble before thinking about any.

For mine, the top 6 are worth having and MacDonald is probably only that if you already have or can't find a better option for Soligo/Owens/etc.

RUCK

1. Hayes - Nothing to change this.
2. Preuss - He'll play eventually, if he's named this week as R1 I'd hold, if he's named with Flynn I'd consider, if he's not named I'd be moving him to one of the other options, Hayes to me isn't a reliable on field option so no issue having him at R3, Xerri with DPP in R7 will free him as well and Preuss would be available for Hayes as a downgrade around then probably.
3. B. Williams - Bubble and in this range but I wouldn't bother, he didn't great as the #1, didn't look good doing it and NicNat is back this week most likely. If he was 120k it would be a different equation but he needs to score at the level he hit at R1 this week against one of the weaker rucks.
4. Dixon - If he comes back...
5. Jamieson/Lynch - Maybe if they get to the bubble but don't like either because of JS/Role/Everything and price for Lynch.

FWD

1. Martin - Scoring potential and cash generation BUT I wouldn't be grabbing him this week unless you need to field him badly.
2. Xerri - He strongly reaffirmed my feelings on him this week and role is even better. Must have and would be my highest priority this week if you don't have him, of all rookies to be clear because he's got low end keeper potential in his role.
3. Rachele - More Durdin moving down than him moving up, played very well again and his midfield move should stick, at least partially, they need him there. I wouldn't be moving heaven and earth to get him but he's definitely someone to get if it's possible. JS is elite, can score well.
4. Naish - Very strong game on the weekend. JS is an issue and it's so hard to read when they have 10 players out but he'd be very unlucky to get dropped, in their best few on the weekend and is the one fill-in who plays a position they genuinely need.
5. Durdin - Still the best "cheap" option after Martin, JS is solid and he can score, especially when they face a few of the weaker sides.
6. Ralphsmith - This is a very hard slot, his role is probably short term as Rioli outperformed him on the weekend, but as long as he has it he'd be right near the top of this list, this is kind of the balance for thinking it wont last. No idea when Vlastuin returns but he's a major issue.
7. Ginnivan - His role is ok, he's very expensive but he's got 119 in his rolling average for 2 weeks and that puts him very high on this list. JS is good. If he was 120k he'd be near the top but that 80k+ lost gain hurts him as he needs to keep scoring big, I rate the Pies higher than most but Geelong is a big challenge this week.
8. McCreery - Same story basically, more expensive and with a worse score and a very similar role.
9. Maginness - Job security is a problem, imo, and at a premium that's an issue. Another on the fine if you have them but wouldn't trade them in list.
10. Henry - He played very well on the weekend and scored 50, his role/scoring potential at 220k is a major problem. JS is good right now though.
11. Lazzaro - He played better than his score but that's two terrible scores at a steep premium.
12. Pedlar/Gollant/Bedford/Dow/Baldwin/Evans - Wait for bubble, I don't think any present strong options but a big 2nd game could change the equation.

Oscar McDonald would be in the middle somewhere based on how he's played and scored but injury update needed and wouldn't be grabbing on that at his price.

Given most people's structures I'd be surprised if many are going beyond #4 on this list and like Bowey down back I think you try and find the cash for Brodie and possibly even Curnow if targeting the HRS/Ginnivan options, albeit there are worse options and neither of those would shock me as a strong outcome pick, it's just I think they're just as likely to bust as boom and you prefer to take a more limited safe bet on rookies generally.

*EDIT* - Noticed I'd left Durdin off, so added him :)
Wow!
 
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Let's do the rookie rankings :)

Note I didn't see the entirety of Hawks vs Port (watched about 85%) and I watched Freo vs St Kilda live and heavily distracted but they basically had one rookie anyway so not a big influence.

I'm not going to bother with the Eagles fill-ins until they're on the bubble but Black is a very good option if he hangs around.

Using 220k again.

DEF

1. McCartin - No change here, role is good, scoring is good, job security is very good.
2. Hinge - No change except he scored this week. McCartin is his equal but cheaper with better JS.
3. SDK - No change, assuming he comes back in otherwise he's a floating donut :LOL: He's cheap with DPP and scored well while playing in R1, puts him ahead of the others.
4. Gibcus - It's going to be a long haul but he'll have a strong game or two where he scores well. JS is good and he'll grow. Also on the bubble which is more valuable than other options.
5. Wanganeen-Milera - Scored pretty well, role was pretty good, cheaper than most of the other names and they won, so that helps likelihood of playing again.
6. Skinner - DPP and cheaper than Sinn and scored better in first hitout, mature body and has a role for a while though Clurey is looming somewhere and a bad loss doesn't help.
7. O'Driscoll - Showed enough in his quarter to earn another game I think but not a like for like injury so it's a hard play. At this point there's not much on offer.
8. Smith - On the bubble so higher but he's a 50 point scorer with bad job security priced at 177k, I can't see any real reason to grab him though, just pay extra for Bowey.
9. Sinn - Hard to see him staying in after a poor performance in an awful loss and he's at a premium. Wouldn't bite until bubble.
10. DGB/Gardner/Joyce - No, just find the extra for Bowey.

Kreuger would be in there at 5 for mine but injury is TBC.

I'd be finding the cash for Bowey if at all possible for everyone below SDK on this list this week if making a move (Gibcus only because he's close in price).

MID

1. Daicos - No change, best role, best scoring potential, genuine keeper potential with DPP coming.
2. JHF - Moves up because the Thomas and LDU injuries should open a very lucrative role for him this week in the all important 3rd game score, he played genuine midfield for the 2nd half last week and scored/played very well, maybe Phillips comes in but reckon he's ahead of him. Could also have it in round 4 for Thomas depending on that injury.
3. Stephens - Did nothing to change my opinion, his spot in the 22 is his issue. Role and scoring potential are very good as long as he holds in the 22.
4. Ward - Role was excellent this week, better than last and I genuinely considered moving him ahead of Stephens, only reason I didn't is Stephens already has one exit score banked and thus can be in and out faster if anyone is looking for a trade target. If his role continues, and given how well he played in the 2nd half it should, he will probably move to 2nd on this list (first once Daicos goes to the backs!). I see a lot of people thinking of trading him out when I think people should be looking to trade him in. He's a very strong chance to be the second best cash generator behind Daicos of all the rookies.
(Rachele/Naish are here)
5. Davies - If he was cheaper he'd be right alongside the others but his role isn't quite as good as the others with a more forward based role. Did get limited midfield burn but not enough to really shift the equation. He's at that "I'd be happy to have him but not want to burn a trade to get" level. Positive is he should get FWD DPP and he's got two good scores on the board. Has the potential for big scores and I think he's an injury from a very good role, basically same place as JHF moved into this week.
(HRS here)
6. MacDonald - He's cheap and it's hard to make big changes after a win like that but I still don't like the JS, he played much better this week though. He's mostly relevant as a sideways bailout for Hough/Owens/Soligo if needed and can't get anyone higher on this list. If he can hang around the threshold is so low he'll be good but the doubts for making it to round 6 remain, he's a quiet game in a loss from going out.
(Maginness here)
7. Mead/Soligo - I wouldn't be trading in either, if they get named I'd be debating if you trade them out, if they're your weak link then you should, they're ahead of the others as on bubble.
8. Sharp - Two games, two bad scores and he's expensive, be very surprised if he holds his spot.
9. Sheldrick/Cook/Owens/Hough - Cook/Hough the pick but would wait until on the bubble before thinking about any.

For mine, the top 6 are worth having and MacDonald is probably only that if you already have or can't find a better option for Soligo/Owens/etc.

RUCK

1. Hayes - Nothing to change this.
2. Preuss - He'll play eventually, if he's named this week as R1 I'd hold, if he's named with Flynn I'd consider, if he's not named I'd be moving him to one of the other options, Hayes to me isn't a reliable on field option so no issue having him at R3, Xerri with DPP in R7 will free him as well and Preuss would be available for Hayes as a downgrade around then probably.
3. B. Williams - Bubble and in this range but I wouldn't bother, he didn't great as the #1, didn't look good doing it and NicNat is back this week most likely. If he was 120k it would be a different equation but he needs to score at the level he hit at R1 this week against one of the weaker rucks.
4. Dixon - If he comes back...
5. Jamieson/Lynch - Maybe if they get to the bubble but don't like either because of JS/Role/Everything and price for Lynch.

FWD

1. Martin - Scoring potential and cash generation BUT I wouldn't be grabbing him this week unless you need to field him badly.
2. Xerri - He strongly reaffirmed my feelings on him this week and role is even better. Must have and would be my highest priority this week if you don't have him, of all rookies to be clear because he's got low end keeper potential in his role.
3. Rachele - More Durdin moving down than him moving up, played very well again and his midfield move should stick, at least partially, they need him there. I wouldn't be moving heaven and earth to get him but he's definitely someone to get if it's possible. JS is elite, can score well.
4. Naish - Very strong game on the weekend. JS is an issue and it's so hard to read when they have 10 players out but he'd be very unlucky to get dropped, in their best few on the weekend and is the one fill-in who plays a position they genuinely need.
5. Durdin - Still the best "cheap" option after Martin, JS is solid and he can score, especially when they face a few of the weaker sides.
6. Ralphsmith - This is a very hard slot, his role is probably short term as Rioli outperformed him on the weekend, but as long as he has it he'd be right near the top of this list, this is kind of the balance for thinking it wont last. No idea when Vlastuin returns but he's a major issue.
7. Ginnivan - His role is ok, he's very expensive but he's got 119 in his rolling average for 2 weeks and that puts him very high on this list. JS is good. If he was 120k he'd be near the top but that 80k+ lost gain hurts him as he needs to keep scoring big, I rate the Pies higher than most but Geelong is a big challenge this week.
8. McCreery - Same story basically, more expensive and with a worse score and a very similar role.
9. Maginness - Job security is a problem, imo, and at a premium that's an issue. Another on the fine if you have them but wouldn't trade them in list.
10. Henry - He played very well on the weekend and scored 50, his role/scoring potential at 220k is a major problem. JS is good right now though.
11. Lazzaro - He played better than his score but that's two terrible scores at a steep premium.
12. Pedlar/Gollant/Bedford/Dow/Baldwin/Evans - Wait for bubble, I don't think any present strong options but a big 2nd game could change the equation.

Oscar McDonald would be in the middle somewhere based on how he's played and scored but injury update needed and wouldn't be grabbing on that at his price.

Given most people's structures I'd be surprised if many are going beyond #4 on this list and like Bowey down back I think you try and find the cash for Brodie and possibly even Curnow if targeting the HRS/Ginnivan options, albeit there are worse options and neither of those would shock me as a strong outcome pick, it's just I think they're just as likely to bust as boom and you prefer to take a more limited safe bet on rookies generally.

*EDIT* - Noticed I'd left Durdin off, so added him :)
Great analysis there and hard to disagree with your rankings (y)

I notice you rate Ward quite highly, so I am interested to know whether you would see any merit in a Ward & Gibcus > Hayes & Bowey/Caldwell "cash cow correction" double trade? Or is this too sideways?

Ward & Gibcus are sitting on most people’s benches currently and this double trade would add a fieldable option in Bowey/Caldwell.
 
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Great analysis there and hard to disagree with your rankings (y)

I notice you rate Ward quite highly, so I am interested to know whether you would see any merit in a Ward & Gibcus > Hayes & Bowey/Caldwell "cash cow correction" double trade? Or is this too sideways?

Ward & Gibcus are sitting on most people’s benches currently and this double trade would add a fieldable option in Bowey/Caldwell.
It's always tough on trades like that.

I'm very high on Ward because his role is very strong and he played much better than his score last game, he was unlucky that he had a couple of early clangers that really tanked his ratio and his slow start in general but he was exceptional in the 2nd half and really grew into the game but there wasn't a lot of points on the table by that point, I mean Mitch Lewis kicked 5.0 but because most of it was "junk time" he also didn't get much of a ratio going on the back of it. Ward's got class so I'm not worried about the disposal, same way I wasn't at all worried by Daicos.

Ultimately I would say that if you've got Gibcus/Ward getting splinters and unlikely to play and that Bowey/Caldwell is going to be a significant on-field upgrade and you think the cash generation is equal then the trades are justifiable.

I'd break it down into the three areas that really matter...

1. Cash generation - What are your projections here? One thing I don't love about the Hayes target is his big score is only one week's worth and I think this week was much more reflective of how he's likely to score, as well as the Ryder aspect but he's also super cheap and half his gain is this week.

For mine I'm going to go with the following:

Hayes - 65 average, will assume he plays the next 5(if Ryder plays that average drops) =$200k by round 8
Ward - 70 average = $145k by round 8
Gibcus - 50 average, with an 80 spike game = 85k by round 8
Bowey - 85 average = $160k by round 8.

Value of a trade is always difficult but I personally like to use 100k, so you're looking at somewhere in the 230k (no trade) vs 160k range for the outcome. Obviously adjust to where you see guys averaging, much higher/lower on anyone changes this equation rapidly. I'd also say that the cash gen of the Hayes/Bowey combination is a lot more bankable right now, they've already got most of those rises in their averages and they're more likely to be done at round 8, this can be both a good or a bad thing.

2. On-field points - Who goes on field, how much does it gain? If Bowey is replacing a 60 average for example, that 25 points is probably worth the 70k difference above on it's own. Assigning a value is very hard but generally if you're getting similar cash and significant points, the trades worth doing.

3. Keeper - I don't think it's relevant here, Bowey is time limited as his role will diminish when Lever and Salem return so I can't foresee a keeper outcome and none of the others come close (Caldwell either). Obviously not relevant in this trade but for mine, the keeper element basically cancels out the cost of the trade because you're getting back another trade on the other end.
 
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It's always tough on trades like that.

I'm very high on Ward because his role is very strong and he played much better than his score last game, he was unlucky that he had a couple of early clangers that really tanked his ratio and his slow start in general but he was exceptional in the 2nd half and really grew into the game but there wasn't a lot of points on the table by that point, I mean Mitch Lewis kicked 5.0 but because most of it was "junk time" he also didn't get much of a ratio going on the back of it. Ward's got class so I'm not worried about the disposal, same way I wasn't at all worried by Daicos.

Ultimately I would say that if you've got Gibcus/Ward getting splinters and unlikely to play and that Bowey/Caldwell is going to be a significant on-field upgrade and you think the cash generation is equal then the trades are justifiable.

I'd break it down into the three areas that really matter...

1. Cash generation - What are your projections here? One thing I don't love about the Hayes target is his big score is only one week's worth and I think this week was much more reflective of how he's likely to score, as well as the Ryder aspect but he's also super cheap and half his gain is this week.

For mine I'm going to go with the following:

Hayes - 65 average, will assume he plays the next 5(if Ryder plays that average drops) =$200k by round 8
Ward - 70 average = $145k by round 8
Gibcus - 50 average, with an 80 spike game = 85k by round 8
Bowey - 85 average = $160k by round 8.

Value of a trade is always difficult but I personally like to use 100k, so you're looking at somewhere in the 230k (no trade) vs 160k range for the outcome. Obviously adjust to where you see guys averaging, much higher/lower on anyone changes this equation rapidly. I'd also say that the cash gen of the Hayes/Bowey combination is a lot more bankable right now, they've already got most of those rises in their averages and they're more likely to be done at round 8, this can be both a good or a bad thing.

2. On-field points - Who goes on field, how much does it gain? If Bowey is replacing a 60 average for example, that 25 points is probably worth the 70k difference above on it's own. Assigning a value is very hard but generally if you're getting similar cash and significant points, the trades worth doing.

3. Keeper - I don't think it's relevant here, Bowey is time limited as his role will diminish when Lever and Salem return so I can't foresee a keeper outcome and none of the others come close (Caldwell either). Obviously not relevant in this trade but for mine, the keeper element basically cancels out the cost of the trade because you're getting back another trade on the other end.
Thanks for the detailed response.

Bowey would be replacing Hinge, and Caldwell would be replacing Dylan Stephens on field - which probably provides slight upgrades.

Gibcus is really relying on a spike game, because otherwise he is overpriced at 171K and is taking up the spot of a cash cow that could make more money.
 
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