Strategy 2022: Round 4 Trades

[Bermi]

Sure does, but is it to the detriment of his team.

RE:........to trade out Maginness to J. Mead, to fund Marshall to English.......
Financially wise, trading out Marshall (BE175) to English (BE58) is a good move and trading out Maginness (Avg43 BE30 projected to make only $6,200) to Mead (Avg49 BE-3 projected to make $23,100 NOTE: Mead's 2nd game, he was a Medical Sub and scored only18pts, his last game scored 78, which will influence his future price rises).
Mead is a good player and his immediate job security looks good with Port's injury list.

To get English in @Connoisseur team, and Cash Cows being limited, I don't see my suggestion as being too bad.

 

[Bermi]

View attachment 42368
Until tonight when the teams were announced I was going to trade Lukosius for Skinner and Ward for Green. With Skinner not selected I'm thinking maybe abstinence this round.
Any comments?

Just something for you to think about.
Trade OUT Lukosius -> move Rioli to defence ->move Naish to Forward -> IN J. Mead
then (if Stephens is dropped) OUT Stephens -> IN Green.

 

[Professor]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511652183107768322

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/HoneyballAFL/status/1511652183107768322

 

[Maccas marvels]

Remember how good and structured your team looked, now its threatening to look like a dogs breakfast chasing last weeks points. Take a bit of care, keep in mind making money with our rookies. 2C

Couldn’t agree more….stick with structure and let the rookies blossom…..nothing worse than selling them early…our best rookies are always the ones we start with…..

 

[Maccas marvels]

View attachment 42368
Until tonight when the teams were announced I was going to trade Lukosius for Skinner and Ward for Green. With Skinner not selected I'm thinking maybe abstinence this round.
Any comments?

Have you considered Lukosious to Bowey? Still allows you to build the bank and Bowey will still make plenty of cash this week with that 150 in his 3 round average?
Ward will come good…could stick with him I don’t think skinner is a necessity at this stage….

you could go Ward to Pruess ( via Dixon) which will give you even more cash? ( the move could even wait a week as Pruess isn’t on the bubble yet?

 

[Darkie]

View attachment 42363

Suggestions on which bench player to dump to fund Marshall to English or an alternative proposed. Ideally I would like to open the opportunity whether now or when dual position changes are announced to move a def/fwd to the fwd bench, English to the forward line, Coniglio to the midfield and Daicos to the backline (if he receives def/mid status) which allows me to bring in Preuss as my second ruck which would move one of McCartin/Hinge to the bench.

Berry to Dow, or one of the WC options (Naish or Rioli) were the options that came to mind for me.

I think it’s probably more about who you’re comfortable with as an out in this situation. The in is obviously important, but you’re largely doing a trade you otherwise wouldn’t for funding purposes, so for me it’s primarily about who you’re forgoing to do that.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

Contemplating the following,

Gawn to Pruess
D.Stephens to English (via Rachelle to mid)

Not sure its worth it. My concern with Gawn after seeing 3 games now is his clanger count and his ruck work. Just seems a half step slower, and is giving too many free kicks away in the ruck contest, and seems to be getting beaten in the ruck contest. 22 disposals on the weekend and only a 117. Not sure what his HTA was but im guessing it has been low this season. I wonder whether he can get the big scores this year as a result. Also, not sure I can watch another bulldogs game without having English in my team. No one seems to man up on him so he just roams free picking up possession after possession. Will prob hold tight as I don't like trading premiums generally. Any thoughts on this?

GAWN

Round 3 - 47 Ruck contests with a win rate of 36% and a HTA of 17%. Generally HTA were low for most rucks in that game,

Season average of 3 games for Gawn:

152 Ruck contests for win rate of 45.4% and HTA of 24.6%

Gawn basically like many sides playing Essendon picked up a lot of possessions to compensate for his poor ruck numbers.

 

[bluesbrothers]

GAWN

Round 3 - 47 Ruck contests with a win rate of 36% and a HTA of 17%. Generally HTA were low for most rucks in that game,

Season average of 3 games for Gawn:

152 Ruck contests for win rate of 45.4% and HTA of 24.6%

Gawn basically like many sides playing Essendon picked up a lot of possessions to compensate for his poor ruck numbers.

Thanks for that. Interesting numbers. Out of curiosity do you know his average for last year?

 

[wogitalia]

I find the Marshall trades to be very interesting. Couple of not great games by a guy with a strong history of having not great games being turfed out.

Last year he had scores of 50, 86, 43, 68 and 73 but still averaged 99 at the end of proceedings. His game one the weekend makes his case for being a forward at least on the possible scale, if Ryder plays the next two that moves towards probable or possibly even certain.

Ryder is likely to miss several games which are when he will feast.

I don't know, I guess the question is why you picked the guy and what's changed from the player you picked? Ryder isn't something new or unexpected. Bad games aren't something new or unexpected. Is it Hayes or King? The team has been surprisingly good so far, hard to say that's a reason to trade him.

Always wonder with these trades what the conclusion they're coming to for why you'd make the trade, especially after the drop in price is already in.

I can understand it where there has been some significant unexpected curveball that changes the scenario but I guess I don't see that with Marshall. It's always possible that trading will be the right decision but 3 weeks from a notoriously up and down player seems an awfully short sample size to overrule all the reasons you started him, especially with DPP in play.

 

[Broar]

I don't know, I guess the question is why you picked the guy and what's changed from the player you picked?

Because Gawn/English were already locked out when Darcey wasn't named for round one.....

 

[Feerits Elf]

I don't know, I guess the question is why you picked the guy and what's changed from the player you picked?

 

[wogitalia]

Because Gawn/English were already locked out when Darcey wasn't named for round one.....

I'd still ask why you picked him over the alternatives?

I'm going to guess the main reasons are his average over the last 3 years and his potential for DPP.

The DPP side is stronger than it looked when you picked him, he's now a very decent chance of getting it for round 6, Ryder has come back sooner than expected.

The scoring is not ideal but he's faced probably the two best 2nd ruck combinations in the league in Darcy/Meek and Nank/Soldo for those poor scores and those scores aren't anything surprising given his scoring history.

I just struggle to find the narrative that justifies him as a starting pick that has now changed to justify a trade. Basically the only reason you'd be trading him now is if you didn't think he was a 90+ player when you picked him and that a couple of bad games confirms that belief and honestly if you didn't think he was a 90+ player when you picked him, why the heck did you pick him over all the other options?

There's just a disconnect between any reason to start him, what's happened since and any reason to be trading him.

 

[Gruffles]

I'd still ask why you picked him over the alternatives?

I'm going to guess the main reasons are his average over the last 3 years and his potential for DPP.

The DPP side is stronger than it looked when you picked him, he's now a very decent chance of getting it for round 6, Ryder has come back sooner than expected.

The scoring is not ideal but he's faced probably the two best 2nd ruck combinations in the league in Darcy/Meek and Nank/Soldo for those poor scores and those scores aren't anything surprising given his scoring history.

I just struggle to find the narrative that justifies him as a starting pick that has now changed to justify a trade. Basically the only reason you'd be trading him now is if you didn't think he was a 90+ player when you picked him and that a couple of bad games confirms that belief and honestly if you didn't think he was a 90+ player when you picked him, why the heck did you pick him over all the other options?

There's just a disconnect between any reason to start him, what's happened since and any reason to be trading him.

I would say that people in the situation he mentioned felt like they didn't have any after Darcy, Gawn, English were no longer options.
You either went down to Witts (never averaged over 95) Marshall (seems like the clear 4th best choice) hope for dpp or Pruess who wasn't playing.

FWIW, I did this. Had Darcy & Grundy most of the preseason, had to make the change. Went Marshall hoping for a decent return until dpp (I already had a stuffed forward line with English, Dunks, Heeney, Butters, Cogs).

I understand what you are saying and I think Marshall could still be a really solid pick in the long run if he gets dpp.
People with him are thinking about the here and now though. Do I really wanna hold a guy with a poor games history holding out for a maybe dpp and a Ryder injury when I can just trade say Marshall>Green put English in the rucks then get a good rookie like Martin/Xerri onfield up forward.

I am also concerned about other possible better dpp targets like Bont or Danger ect and having room for them.

 

[Toothless Tigers]

Those contemplating trading in Preuss as R 2 are taking a big risk. Ballsy but gez his injury history is off putting.

What about?

 

[Slammer]

What about?
View attachment 42378

I guess it depends if you can turn another rookie into a premo.
Yes, it is a risk though .
I am thinking Marshall to Preuss can allow me to go Rachele to Green

 

[Locus Levy Lunacy]

I'd still ask why you picked him over the alternatives?

I'm going to guess the main reasons are his average over the last 3 years and his potential for DPP.

The DPP side is stronger than it looked when you picked him, he's now a very decent chance of getting it for round 6, Ryder has come back sooner than expected.

The scoring is not ideal but he's faced probably the two best 2nd ruck combinations in the league in Darcy/Meek and Nank/Soldo for those poor scores and those scores aren't anything surprising given his scoring history.

I just struggle to find the narrative that justifies him as a starting pick that has now changed to justify a trade. Basically the only reason you'd be trading him now is if you didn't think he was a 90+ player when you picked him and that a couple of bad games confirms that belief and honestly if you didn't think he was a 90+ player when you picked him, why the heck did you pick him over all the other options?

There's just a disconnect between any reason to start him, what's happened since and any reason to be trading him.

I picked Marshall to hopefully be the ruckman that averaged 120 late last year without Ryder. The feeling was, that even when Ryder came back, the achilles (and age) would mean he would see a reduced % ruck-time relative to Marshall.

Round 1, 87% CBA's and scores 124 - all is well.

Round 2, 52% CBA's with no Ryder. Something has happened to him - potentially a flare-up of the rib problem leading into the season. He missed the first practice match due to this. He didn't look to be moving well and couldn't get any separation from the Freo big boys around the ground.

Round 3, Ryder has 22 CBA's to Marshall's 12. Is this what St. Kilda would have had planned preseason? I didn't see any of this game to comment, as I was at the MCG, but it again suggests they may be sheltering him a bit.

It is quite reasonable to offload him if he is not performing the role you expected him to.

 

[Bermi]

.............I can understand it where there has been some significant unexpected curveball that changes the scenario............ short sample size to overrule all the reasons you started him...........

This is what is going through my mind now, regarding trading out Miller to Green.
Curveball changes:
Miller likely to be tagged more often than last year.
Green likely to have a breakout year.

Miller BE173 and Green BE45, the trade will give me an extra $154k to use else where.

Last year I missed the boat on Walsh and Miller and I wasn't happy about that. I fear that I might miss the boat on Green this year.
The problem is that, this is only a small sample and the curve ball changes are only 'likely', so logic says don't trade, gut says trade.

I wish my logic, or gut feeling, was right all the time so I can trust one of them.

 

[Feerits Elf]

Miller likely to be tagged more often than last year.

On what basis?

 

[Montyjnr]

This is what is going through my mind now, regarding trading out Miller to Green.
Curveball changes:
Miller likely to be tagged more often than last year.
Green likely to have a breakout year.

Miller BE173 and Green BE45, the trade will give me an extra $154k to use else where.

Last year I missed the boat on Walsh and Miller and I wasn't happy about that. I fear that I might miss the boat on Green this year.
The problem is that, this is only a small sample and the curve ball changes are only 'likely', so logic says don't trade, gut says trade.

I wish my logic, or gut feeling, was right all the time so I can trust one of them.

What other teams will effectively tag Miller though? GWS is almost the only team that does a brutal hard tag these days...

I would hardly say it is a "likely" outcome.

 

[Connoisseur]

I picked Marshall to hopefully be the ruckman that averaged 120 late last year without Ryder. The feeling was, that even when Ryder came back, the achilles (and age) would mean he would see a reduced % ruck-time relative to Marshall.

Round 1, 87% CBA's and scores 124 - all is well.

Round 2, 52% CBA's with no Ryder. Something has happened to him - potentially a flare-up of the rib problem leading into the season. He missed the first practice match due to this. He didn't look to be moving well and couldn't get any separation from the Freo big boys around the ground.

Round 3, Ryder has 22 CBA's to Marshall's 12. Is this what St. Kilda would have had planned preseason? I didn't see any of this game to comment, as I was at the MCG, but it again suggests they may be sheltering him a bit.

It is quite reasonable to offload him if he is not performing the role you expected him to.

Wouldn’t a more reliable indicator for ruckman be ruck contests attended rather than centre bounce attendances, given both are readily available?