Discussion 2022 Round 4: Teams & In Game Discussion
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Port vs Melbourne
General - Feels like a hit job BUT Port were embarrassing, just absolutely pathetic. Hinkley is going to have a very long week because a side under that much pressure to put up that meek and disgraceful an effort deserves to be put under a serious microscope. Melbourne took care of things .
Port - As mentioned, just embarrassing. To be 2nd to the ball all night and still almost lose the tackle count is the real tell tale sign of a coach that has well and truly lost the playing group. They're playing selfish and dumb football, both are bad on their own but together it's devastating. Play that summed it up the best was when Jonas ran past the ball and past Spargo who was going for the ball to make sure his man didn't get the goal, he got lucky that Spargo blew an easy chance but when your captain isn't thinking team first you have to ask questions, to Jonas' credit he had a phenomenal spoil going back with the flight later in the game that was one of their best plays as well. Their game plan genuinely seemed like they did the SWOT analysis only they got the SW and OT mixed up because everything they did was planned meticulously to expose Melbourne's strengths and highlight their own weaknesses...
Boak - Strong junk time from him, can't fault him continually working but would have been good to try a bit harder when the game was on the line. He's such a machine though, just relentless running for 4 quarters. A marvel to still be performing at the level he is at that age.
Bonner/Burton/Jonas/DBJ/Clurey/Houston/Bergman - Junk games from all, just cheap +6 chipping to give Melbourne time to setup behind the ball, honestly seemed like their game plan was to move it slowly sideways until they could create a turnover kick...
Drew - EASY best on field for Port. Really felt like he was the only guy who actually wanted to fight and win the game. Did a stellar job on Petracca. Honestly he should get all of the B&F votes for Port from this game.
Amon - Butchered several chances, his 2nd point was probably the next best example of them as a team, one of their best kicks looked absolutely shell-shocked to have a relatively easy set shot, almost played on 4 or 5 times trying to kick to worse kickers, before panicking and rushing a shot that missed badly. Guy like him you just want to go back and execute the simple shot and he just looked afraid of it. Seems a guy that has copped a spray from the coach and is petrified of doing the wrong thing so he ends up doing everything wrong.
SPP - His tackling was terrible, had multiple kill shots and missed tonight, was one on Harmes where Harmes shouldn't be awake and he just looked afraid to try and tackle hard. Whole game fell apart rapidly after that moment also.
Butters - See above post, was terrible. Only word for his game was soft. Seemed afraid to receive contact, even more afraid to deliver it, was legitimately shirking contests instead of straightlining the ball. One of the worst games I've seen from him. Have to assume he shouldn't have been playing as I've never questioned his attack on the ball or the man from the lack of want perspective, normally it's his over-zealousness that worries me, at least I hope it's that because the other option is it's a young player who thought he was playing mid being relegated after two weeks to a crap role and sulking, last week he was playing stupid and this week soft, both are reactions of someone that's pissed off at the coach!
Mead - Far from their worst but also didn't do anything to demand selection next week. On a positive, there's a half dozen guys below him so he's probably safe outside Ken going full scorched Earth.
Rozee - No idea what happened to him but he's a complete shadow of what he was in his first 5 games, not even compared to what he should be but just as a kid.
Lycett - No idea what their tactic was here, it seemed to be the old "Scott, you find the non-dangerous spot and stand there and let Gawn/Jackson take the dangerous spot and stand there"... He was embarrassed tonight.
Marshall - Turned back into a potato tonight. There's talent there but the whole Bambi persona and softness needs to get crushed yesterday.
Motlop/McEntee/Mayes - Should be the first 3 cut, all were really bad.
Wines - Went off with "nausea", was getting his pulse checked. I don't want to speculate but it's a very common theme across the sporting world over the last 12-18 months. He wasn't terrible but I have no idea how he scored 52, no way he deserved that. Still, one to watch as an upgrade target now when we find out what was actually wrong.
Demons - Best way to describe them was professional. Took all the things Port gave them and took care of business in a game that definitely had danger game potential as you normally expect a wounded animal to fight, luckily for the Demons this wounded animal just pissed and pooped all over itself and then rolled in it... They just look a well coached and confident team, there's that champion swagger of "we've got this" about them right now.
Gawn - I was puzzled why people were talking of trading him, hope not too many around here did as he's still Max. Basically tonight the marks stuck, didn't hurt that Port didn't seem to know he wasn't playing for them and kept letting him waltz into the D50 and take uncontested intercept marks but the big man was excellent. Basically he's a 150+ when he gloves everything, he's 90ish when he gloves nothing and he's 120 when it's somewhere in the middle. This is the Gawn we all know and love. Squashed my plans of getting him really cheap in a few weeks the bastid
Jackson - Keeps scoring, played the SC game perfectly by doing all his work in the time the game was won and then just riding the scaling train home. To be fair, Lycett and Marshall is easy pickings but he keeps rolling and he's looking an outstanding pick, honestly the question is whether it's too late because he's scoring 90+ with ease, outside the Tigers game that he ripped open, he's done nothing noteworthy in his 100+ average but he's not putting up 40s and 50s and looks like he wont.
May - Took basically all the kick-ins and was very solid again.
Petracca - Brilliantly tagged by Drew, still scored 90ish, that's a big result for his owners. Not many will tag him to that level, not many can. If he hadn't gone clanger happy he'd probably have got 110 as well, albeit part of that was Drew's hard work. I'd say there's a pretty strong correlation between Drew's 9 tackles and Petracca's 9 clangers.
Oliver - Someone just booked their spot on the upgrade target express, albeit he's got some ritzy company right now. Barring some monsters he's going to be awfully cheap in a couple of weeks given what he offers. Was a real going through the motions game for him, with the game over partway through the 2nd quarter they seemed to give the Sparrow/Harmes/Jordon/ANB guys a bit more burn today.
Bowey - Lever back definitely hurts him, he was playing a bit of a quasi Lever/Salem role the past couple of weeks, roaming to the contest and then impacting aerially or rebounding away. Today he felt much more disciplined to his man with Lever and May taking the majority of that. Being at less contests makes scoring harder.
Brayshaw - Started like a house on fire, couldn't tell if Port put work into him after that but definitely went quiet. Still seems to be filling Salem's primary rebounding role the last two weeks which is a lucrative role but I'd be careful that it's not fool's gold before targeting him if anyone was thinking about it after last week's bonanza.
General - Feels like a hit job BUT Port were embarrassing, just absolutely pathetic. Hinkley is going to have a very long week because a side under that much pressure to put up that meek and disgraceful an effort deserves to be put under a serious microscope. Melbourne took care of things .
Port - As mentioned, just embarrassing. To be 2nd to the ball all night and still almost lose the tackle count is the real tell tale sign of a coach that has well and truly lost the playing group. They're playing selfish and dumb football, both are bad on their own but together it's devastating. Play that summed it up the best was when Jonas ran past the ball and past Spargo who was going for the ball to make sure his man didn't get the goal, he got lucky that Spargo blew an easy chance but when your captain isn't thinking team first you have to ask questions, to Jonas' credit he had a phenomenal spoil going back with the flight later in the game that was one of their best plays as well. Their game plan genuinely seemed like they did the SWOT analysis only they got the SW and OT mixed up because everything they did was planned meticulously to expose Melbourne's strengths and highlight their own weaknesses...
Boak - Strong junk time from him, can't fault him continually working but would have been good to try a bit harder when the game was on the line. He's such a machine though, just relentless running for 4 quarters. A marvel to still be performing at the level he is at that age.
Bonner/Burton/Jonas/DBJ/Clurey/Houston/Bergman - Junk games from all, just cheap +6 chipping to give Melbourne time to setup behind the ball, honestly seemed like their game plan was to move it slowly sideways until they could create a turnover kick...
Drew - EASY best on field for Port. Really felt like he was the only guy who actually wanted to fight and win the game. Did a stellar job on Petracca. Honestly he should get all of the B&F votes for Port from this game.
Amon - Butchered several chances, his 2nd point was probably the next best example of them as a team, one of their best kicks looked absolutely shell-shocked to have a relatively easy set shot, almost played on 4 or 5 times trying to kick to worse kickers, before panicking and rushing a shot that missed badly. Guy like him you just want to go back and execute the simple shot and he just looked afraid of it. Seems a guy that has copped a spray from the coach and is petrified of doing the wrong thing so he ends up doing everything wrong.
SPP - His tackling was terrible, had multiple kill shots and missed tonight, was one on Harmes where Harmes shouldn't be awake and he just looked afraid to try and tackle hard. Whole game fell apart rapidly after that moment also.
Butters - See above post, was terrible. Only word for his game was soft. Seemed afraid to receive contact, even more afraid to deliver it, was legitimately shirking contests instead of straightlining the ball. One of the worst games I've seen from him. Have to assume he shouldn't have been playing as I've never questioned his attack on the ball or the man from the lack of want perspective, normally it's his over-zealousness that worries me, at least I hope it's that because the other option is it's a young player who thought he was playing mid being relegated after two weeks to a crap role and sulking, last week he was playing stupid and this week soft, both are reactions of someone that's pissed off at the coach!
Mead - Far from their worst but also didn't do anything to demand selection next week. On a positive, there's a half dozen guys below him so he's probably safe outside Ken going full scorched Earth.
Rozee - No idea what happened to him but he's a complete shadow of what he was in his first 5 games, not even compared to what he should be but just as a kid.
Lycett - No idea what their tactic was here, it seemed to be the old "Scott, you find the non-dangerous spot and stand there and let Gawn/Jackson take the dangerous spot and stand there"... He was embarrassed tonight.
Marshall - Turned back into a potato tonight. There's talent there but the whole Bambi persona and softness needs to get crushed yesterday.
Motlop/McEntee/Mayes - Should be the first 3 cut, all were really bad.
Wines - Went off with "nausea", was getting his pulse checked. I don't want to speculate but it's a very common theme across the sporting world over the last 12-18 months. He wasn't terrible but I have no idea how he scored 52, no way he deserved that. Still, one to watch as an upgrade target now when we find out what was actually wrong.
Demons - Best way to describe them was professional. Took all the things Port gave them and took care of business in a game that definitely had danger game potential as you normally expect a wounded animal to fight, luckily for the Demons this wounded animal just pissed and pooped all over itself and then rolled in it... They just look a well coached and confident team, there's that champion swagger of "we've got this" about them right now.
Gawn - I was puzzled why people were talking of trading him, hope not too many around here did as he's still Max. Basically tonight the marks stuck, didn't hurt that Port didn't seem to know he wasn't playing for them and kept letting him waltz into the D50 and take uncontested intercept marks but the big man was excellent. Basically he's a 150+ when he gloves everything, he's 90ish when he gloves nothing and he's 120 when it's somewhere in the middle. This is the Gawn we all know and love. Squashed my plans of getting him really cheap in a few weeks the bastid
Jackson - Keeps scoring, played the SC game perfectly by doing all his work in the time the game was won and then just riding the scaling train home. To be fair, Lycett and Marshall is easy pickings but he keeps rolling and he's looking an outstanding pick, honestly the question is whether it's too late because he's scoring 90+ with ease, outside the Tigers game that he ripped open, he's done nothing noteworthy in his 100+ average but he's not putting up 40s and 50s and looks like he wont.
May - Took basically all the kick-ins and was very solid again.
Petracca - Brilliantly tagged by Drew, still scored 90ish, that's a big result for his owners. Not many will tag him to that level, not many can. If he hadn't gone clanger happy he'd probably have got 110 as well, albeit part of that was Drew's hard work. I'd say there's a pretty strong correlation between Drew's 9 tackles and Petracca's 9 clangers.
Oliver - Someone just booked their spot on the upgrade target express, albeit he's got some ritzy company right now. Barring some monsters he's going to be awfully cheap in a couple of weeks given what he offers. Was a real going through the motions game for him, with the game over partway through the 2nd quarter they seemed to give the Sparrow/Harmes/Jordon/ANB guys a bit more burn today.
Bowey - Lever back definitely hurts him, he was playing a bit of a quasi Lever/Salem role the past couple of weeks, roaming to the contest and then impacting aerially or rebounding away. Today he felt much more disciplined to his man with Lever and May taking the majority of that. Being at less contests makes scoring harder.
Brayshaw - Started like a house on fire, couldn't tell if Port put work into him after that but definitely went quiet. Still seems to be filling Salem's primary rebounding role the last two weeks which is a lucrative role but I'd be careful that it's not fool's gold before targeting him if anyone was thinking about it after last week's bonanza.
You have such command over the English language. Another great review.
Terrible night for Bluth Lodge but god I love this game sometimes. Lots of teams very similar this year but still plenty going on and plenty of room to play. Last night looked like it would be pretty inconsequential but then Gawn going huge (and Oliver and Butters and Bowey bad) really spices things up. Good luck to all who held and all who traded. Plenty to play out yet.
You've missed one very big, basic factor in your critique. Everyone should have had an opinion on what those players might average coming into the season. So the "if you thought....." is totally justified!
Gawn last 3 seasons 121, 140, 128. I used 120. If I used his last season average of 121, close enough to bang on 160!
Lycett last 3 seasons 94, 97, 101. I used 96, if I had used last seasons average, it would have been even closer!!!
Not sure why you have a problem with the 120 and 96!!!!
What was your opinion on those 2 players, prior to Round 1?
Gawn last 3 seasons 121, 140, 128. I used 120. If I used his last season average of 121, close enough to bang on 160!
Lycett last 3 seasons 94, 97, 101. I used 96, if I had used last seasons average, it would have been even closer!!!
Not sure why you have a problem with the 120 and 96!!!!
What was your opinion on those 2 players, prior to Round 1?
Butters is interesting one , I wonder if we all should have given more thought to who could get DPP (or is that looking too far into the future ? for our starting forwards).
Hindsight after 3 rounds would suggest we probably should have started Dunkley + Cogs & Brodie , Gresham , D Rioli , Xerri types with English as a starting ruck.
If (and pure conjecture & speculation at this stage) Bont , Danger , Parker , Smith etc all get F status added might be a lot of sideways trades happening in the next few rounds.
Hindsight after 3 rounds would suggest we probably should have started Dunkley + Cogs & Brodie , Gresham , D Rioli , Xerri types with English as a starting ruck.
If (and pure conjecture & speculation at this stage) Bont , Danger , Parker , Smith etc all get F status added might be a lot of sideways trades happening in the next few rounds.
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I tend to jump to conclusions quickly on premos - be it slight role shift, less time in mids/rucks, potential injury, etc. So I'm holding Butters but he's gone from locked status to monitor status.
He is frustrating to own. His football IQ is 200 one minute then negative 10 the next minute. Yet to see the CBAs but they took him out the middle for the most part until junk time. When he was around the stoppage he was hanging outside the pack instead of going inside. Port are also a complete mess.
Without trying to sound like a sour Gawn trader, Port's game style was chip and switch it then kick it long allowing Gawn to set up behind play all night, or force a stoppage where they had no chance against him in the ruck (injured lycett/marshall). Not sure I recall a worse coaching performance, Mr Bean would have done a better job. I will concede, it looks like using Gawn's money to sort other lines out was a mistake and should have been held.
He is frustrating to own. His football IQ is 200 one minute then negative 10 the next minute. Yet to see the CBAs but they took him out the middle for the most part until junk time. When he was around the stoppage he was hanging outside the pack instead of going inside. Port are also a complete mess.
Without trying to sound like a sour Gawn trader, Port's game style was chip and switch it then kick it long allowing Gawn to set up behind play all night, or force a stoppage where they had no chance against him in the ruck (injured lycett/marshall). Not sure I recall a worse coaching performance, Mr Bean would have done a better job. I will concede, it looks like using Gawn's money to sort other lines out was a mistake and should have been held.
You're using the figures to retrofit what your expectations should have been.
What would have been your guess on Hickey? Because his results this year don't align with previous years' averages.
And Lycett's end score (53, not 58) means that it only works if you thought he'd average 80. You got the mid-90s based off his previous seasons - that's miles off. Using your adjustments Lycett's scores overall have either been based off an 80 average or a 100 average. That's a broad range.
As per my previous post, I don't think this is without value. I just don't think that using it to forecast results based off prior assumptions, not data, is a valid claim.
What would have been your guess on Hickey? Because his results this year don't align with previous years' averages.
And Lycett's end score (53, not 58) means that it only works if you thought he'd average 80. You got the mid-90s based off his previous seasons - that's miles off. Using your adjustments Lycett's scores overall have either been based off an 80 average or a 100 average. That's a broad range.
As per my previous post, I don't think this is without value. I just don't think that using it to forecast results based off prior assumptions, not data, is a valid claim.
OMG, you are totally not understanding the purpose of this table, and not answering, or dodging my questions.
First let me answer yours. My opinion on Hickey prior to the season was 17-18/93-95.
This table is not meant to be a bang, spot on predictive tool, it is meant to give an indication of when a player might have an advantage, from a SC perspective, or might be facing a tough week. You are trying to read far too much into this! Yes, I pointed out it was reasonably/pretty accurate in this game. But I also pointed out it was based off a limited data sample.
Now, back to my questions you seemingly skipped over. Without last night's score shading your answers, what was your expectations for Gawn and Lycett prior to Round 1?
You seem to have a problem with me using previous seasons data to inform my opinion. Therefore I assume you ignore those previous seasons. What do you base your preseason opinions on?
First let me answer yours. My opinion on Hickey prior to the season was 17-18/93-95.
This table is not meant to be a bang, spot on predictive tool, it is meant to give an indication of when a player might have an advantage, from a SC perspective, or might be facing a tough week. You are trying to read far too much into this! Yes, I pointed out it was reasonably/pretty accurate in this game. But I also pointed out it was based off a limited data sample.
Now, back to my questions you seemingly skipped over. Without last night's score shading your answers, what was your expectations for Gawn and Lycett prior to Round 1?
You seem to have a problem with me using previous seasons data to inform my opinion. Therefore I assume you ignore those previous seasons. What do you base your preseason opinions on?
Sigh. My sole point, and the only part I was calling into question, was the suggestion that this method could be used for predictive results based off SC player opinions. It's not the data sample that's the problem there. I've mentioned several times that it's useful information and suggested better ways to use it in a more empirical fashion.
I skipped it because I'm really not sure of the point since people's predictions on averages are ultimately just educated guesses. *shrug* Since you seem passionately attached to this part - Lycett probably would've been similar given his consistent output and not predicting Port to crater; Gawn about 110-115.
I skipped it because I'm really not sure of the point since people's predictions on averages are ultimately just educated guesses. *shrug* Since you seem passionately attached to this part - Lycett probably would've been similar given his consistent output and not predicting Port to crater; Gawn about 110-115.