Strategy 2022: Round 5 Trades

[Locus Levy Lunacy]

I am torn with what to do. Be aggressive or conservative.

Some who be aggressive will get it wrong, but not all. How do you catch the ones who get it right?

You can use the maximum number of trades for 10 of the next 11 weeks (25) and still have one per week left after the byes. I'm assuming here that in a perfect world you wouldn't trade leading into the first bye in round 12.

Those numbers don't suggest sitting on your hands do they?

 

[Courtesans]

Leaning towards Cripps + Bowey out for Sinclair + Jackson. Lots of uncertainty around Cripps and how long he will be out for, and the timing seems to work well to push out Bowey and bring in Jackson.

Going to have a team full of RUC/FWDs at this rate with English, Dixon, Hayes, Jackson and Xerri.

Going to have a full team of rucks, Gawn, Grundy, English, Xerri, Hayes and possibly Preuss in a couple weeks.

 

[jaca]

I am torn with what to do. Be aggressive or conservative.

Same same. Feel it would need to be a genuine premo in, and many feel like they’ve got more room to fall.

Macrae and Neale my only other premo kids.

 

[AngryAnt]

Hinge and Cripps only missing one game then it'll just be a single trade to get odriscoll in for one of the dead mid rookies

 

[Ricky Bobby]

I'm thinking of downgrading Xerri to O'Driscoll (via SDK). Nets 150k in the bank & gives me back the McCartin/SDK Def-Fwd swingset. Xerri will still be decent onfield, but a b/e of 58 seems like a decent time to trade, if i'm going to to do it. Already have Gawn, Grundy, Dixon & Hayes, so not really important if/when Xerri has dpp ruck/fwd status. Thoughts?

I like it as I’m considering the same trade for the same reasons.

 

[BarginHunter]

When we had 20 trades wouldn’t even consider trading a likely one week injury. 30 trades keep. 35 trades probably a 50/50 call.

Its a keep from me.

Yeahh its too hard to say no to holding especially since i worked so hard to get him into my team

Looks like Im leaning towards holding, just hope this hasnt ruined his form

 

[wogitalia]

NOD the sensible target.

Ridley, Whitfield and Rowell are in the rage gun ready to be fired into a wall, at this point will accept a bag of peanuts in return.

Cripps I think I'll hold.

Macrae next week remains the plan with Oliver/Steele in the couple of weeks to follow also targets. Gawn can wait with Preuss/Dixon/Xerri/English capable of filling that R2 spot.

 

[nath_99]

Could potentially go

Cripps to NOD
DPP magic, Gibcus out, NOD up to DEF, Rachele to mids and bring in Heeney..

Cripps to Heeney feels like one injury prone player for another lol. Not sure of Heeneys role without Buddy 🤔

 

[SGG]

Thinking of going Rowell to Tom Mitchell and swinging Mitchell forward when/if he gets dpp.

Based on the stats prior to Sunday’s game, Mitchell wouldn’t have qualified for FWD status and he spent the majority of the game this week playing midfield. I doubt he will get DPP at all this year. I expect the Hawthorn rookies will play less midfield as the season progresses and they tire and Titch and the older heads will pick up he slack.

 

[American Doggie]

Someone who knows more than me: What led to Xerri's 46? Was that a one-off or is it something to worry about?

Also had underperforming weeks from Cogs, Cripps and Rowell - when is it time to hit the panic button?

 

[pizza safety]

Why has 27yo Sinclair jumped up in scoring, averaging 116, when his past 7 seasons highest avg was 86?

I'll make the bold claim that Sinclair is likely a trap for anyone getting on board right now. He's turning 27 this year and has several years of averaging 86 or less and he will likely to see some pretty big regression from these early scores. He has had a role change but it's not totally clear cut, he has had 32%, 71%, 51% and 0% CBA's in the first four games. In 2020 he had four games with 40%+ CBA's and only averaged 81.5 in those games. In round 11 last year he had 38% CBA's and only scored 75. https://www.dfsaustralia.com/afl-cbas/

I have a hard time getting on board with a breakout at this stage in someones career even with a position change to inside midfield (which also seems unclear), I've only usually seen players moving to play down back maintain a big spike year from nowhere this late in a career. Even if he does work on some level I'm not sure it will be 100+, probably more around 95 from here.

 

[whiteTiga2k]

Someone who knows more than me: What led to Xerri's 46? Was that a one-off or is it something to worry about?

Also had underperforming weeks from Cogs, Cripps and Rowell - when is it time to hit the panic button?

I don't know much... but I'd suspect the small ground with less room to get free and find open space contributed to it.

He's not really a contested marking juggernaut from what I've seen. Feel free to completely destroy my theory.

I'd expect him to do a lot better next game

 

[Lgndhen23]

I'll make the bold claim that Sinclair is likely a trap for anyone getting on board right now. He's turning 27 this year and has several years of averaging 86 or less and he will likely to see some pretty big regression from these early scores. He has had a role change but it's not totally clear cut, he has had 32%, 71%, 51% and 0% CBA's in the first four games. In 2020 he had four games with 40%+ CBA's and only averaged 81.5 in those games. In round 11 last year he had 38% CBA's and only scored 75. https://www.dfsaustralia.com/afl-cbas/

I have a hard time getting on board with a breakout at this stage in someones career even with a position change to inside midfield (which also seems unclear), I've only usually seen players moving to play down back maintain a big spike year from nowhere this late in a career. Even if he does work on some level I'm not sure it will be 100+, probably more around 95 from here.

he was reformed as a defender last year, running off half back

ended up averaging 86 for the year, yet the second half of year went 95+

id say after playing a year in the role, that natural progression wouldve seen him quite clearly a breakout contender, in fact i had him as a top 10 defender this year.

many think the midfield role is why hes scoring well, although it may have been a factor, 0% cba last week shows he is clearly no amateur in the half back role

i can see him dropping off a bit because current scoring probably not sustainable, but a 100 avg definilty possible and i am really mad i took him out the day of the first game

 

[EyeloveRichmond]

I like it as I’m considering the same trade for the same reasons.

Thanks for the feedback bobby, much appreciated 👍

 

[wogitalia]

I'll make the bold claim that Sinclair is likely a trap for anyone getting on board right now. He's turning 27 this year and has several years of averaging 86 or less and he will likely to see some pretty big regression from these early scores. He has had a role change but it's not totally clear cut, he has had 32%, 71%, 51% and 0% CBA's in the first four games. In 2020 he had four games with 40%+ CBA's and only averaged 81.5 in those games. In round 11 last year he had 38% CBA's and only scored 75. https://www.dfsaustralia.com/afl-cbas/

I have a hard time getting on board with a breakout at this stage in someones career even with a position change to inside midfield (which also seems unclear), I've only usually seen players moving to play down back maintain a big spike year from nowhere this late in a career. Even if he does work on some level I'm not sure it will be 100+, probably more around 95 from here.

Actually not a dissimilar path to Cam Guthrie, fwiw.

I liked him to maintain his 95+ average with a little upside for the Coffield injury but didn't project the midfield move which has been very lucrative through 4 rounds. I've criticised Ratten many times for his odd obsession with one paced butchers in the midfield so I obviously think that Sinclair is an outstanding move by him but I tend to agree that it's probably temporary while Jones, Clark and Billings are all out. Interestingly from what I saw of the game they were using Windhager in there this week.

Personally I like him but I'd probably want a bit more data on him, I think he's got high regression to the mean, which I still think is 95ish if the role changes.

Also could be a great jump if the role holds up though or just the scoring.

 

[pizza safety]

Actually not a dissimilar path to Cam Guthrie, fwiw.

I liked him to maintain his 95+ average with a little upside for the Coffield injury but didn't project the midfield move which has been very lucrative through 4 rounds. I've criticised Ratten many times for his odd obsession with one paced butchers in the midfield so I obviously think that Sinclair is an outstanding move by him but I tend to agree that it's probably temporary while Jones, Clark and Billings are all out. Interestingly from what I saw of the game they were using Windhager in there this week.

Personally I like him but I'd probably want a bit more data on him, I think he's got high regression to the mean, which I still think is 95ish if the role changes.

Also could be a great jump if the role holds up though or just the scoring.

Guthrie is a fair comparison and there one or two players who can pop up late and put out this sort of average, but I think usually they regress for one reason or another and for that reason they're more likely to be a trap than not a trap. He can work but he has the odds against him.

A couple of key differences to Guthrie though is that Guthrie had previous season averages of 97 and 103 (if we're talking about getting him last year) and Guthrie had clearly got a new role as an inside mid from 2020 (without tagging), Sinclair's role change is a bit less clear. O CBA's last week, and 32% in round one, he seemingly spent some time down back last week because he had 2 kick ins, maybe someone who watched him can say but I'm guessing he played half-back and wing ?

Some other players who have recently looked like having a late breakout in the midfield who haven't managed to maintain the high end scoring include Ed Curnow in 2018, Ziebell in 2019 and Cunnington in 2019, some got on Curnow and Cunnington around mid year because they looked like they were going to continue to average 110, but both regressed and averaged 100 (if you got on them they would have averaged sub 95 for your side), some got on Ziebell when he went on a hot patch as well but that didn't last either. Even with Guthrie the fact he hasn't backed it up this year shows that for players who emerge late there is usually only a limited amount of time where they can maintain the form. Also compared to these players Sinclair has got less runs on the board than they did when they looked they were gonna break out, or in Guthrie's case, did break out.

 

[OnTopBar]

Someone who knows more than me: What led to Xerri's 46? Was that a one-off or is it something to worry about?

Also had underperforming weeks from Cogs, Cripps and Rowell - when is it time to hit the panic button?

Came off for quite a while in the 3rd quarter with a knock that opened up a cut on his noggin, got 23 hitouts but I don't think that any were HTA's

 

[OnTopBar]

Who to trade for O'Driscoll? Xerri or Minge or Ward?

 

[Bermi]

Who to trade for O'Driscoll? Xerri or Minge or Ward?

You chose a Forward, Defender and a Midfielder as a trade out. I would look at your team to see which line's structure would benefit the most after trading out one of those players.

 

[Herbie66]

Why has 27yo Sinclair jumped up in scoring, averaging 116, when his past 7 seasons highest avg was 86?

From what I have read he is their main distributor/rebounder from HB and next man in at stoppages.

No idea how many points he scores direct from stoppages v CBA though (and every other player to be honest).

People get carried away out on here because players attend/don't attend CBA's , actually means diddly squat if they are not getting direct possessions from the CBA , someone like Keays for example will attend CBA with the sole purpose of negating/stopping the opposition's main mid and no intent at all on winning his own ball , perfect example latest game when he went to Parish to try and stop Draper hitting 10 o'clock to him , so then Essendon X & Y become more important.

Would love to see a stat showing % of HO to particular players (especially who does Gawn/Jackson target) and then what that player does with the ball eg disposal , held up , dispute etc etc

Again though who wins the ball though direct and what they do with it , if it just becomes a immediate ball up flankers & wingers are all in around the stoppage in any case so they then might become the target and not necessarily the 3 who started the CBA.

Same as around the ground , multiple stoppages , players that are winning the ball here may not be the ones that attend the majority of CBA's.

Probably more stoppages during a game than actual CBA's in any case.