Opinion 2022: Rookie Roulette

Joined
24 Mar 2015
Messages
4,154
Likes
14,751
AFL Club
North Melb.
Cogs or Nick Martin? Will bench one of them for Butters.

Cogs lifting for the coach send off/Martin cramped at the SCG? :unsure:
 
Joined
29 Jan 2020
Messages
43
Likes
115
AFL Club
Carlton
Does anyone know what Hugh Dixon's chances of being sub are like?

I looped Butters with McCartin, but to take Butters' score I need to field Dixon.
 
Joined
10 Feb 2014
Messages
11,375
Likes
21,228
AFL Club
Essendon
So many possible variations:

Def: 2 of - Gibsus, SDK, Daicos. Can loop via Ridley (McCartin could switch back and put SDK forward)
Mid: 1 of Mcomb, Clark, Long, N. Martin (Loop via Hamilton)
Fwd: Rioli, McCartin, Long - SDK, N. Martin.

Going to have to a closer look at the game sequencing. Back in a minute.

So I think:

Def: Gibcus (onfeild), loop: McCartin, Daicos.

Forward: Loop, SDK (if SDK scores well, leave Hamilton fwd as donut - if not I can either play Rioli, Long or Martin fwd)

Mid: loop: McComb (if he scores more than SDK, play one of Martin, Rioli, Long, Martin. fwd. in mids, or swinging fwd)

All too hard. There's opening up looping options and then there's having almost way to many permutations. Will be helpful in the buys.

Anyone like puzzles?

1653038362331.png
 
Last edited:
Joined
29 Jan 2020
Messages
43
Likes
115
AFL Club
Carlton
I can take McCartin's 85 over:

Nick Martin - 4/9 scores higher than 85 in 2022
Zak Butters - 5/9 scores higher than 85 in 2022
Darcy Cameron - 100% of scores higher than 85 since taking over #1 ruck role, but the Cox inclusion is a different threat than Begg has been.

Finding this a tough decision, but my gut is suggesting that Butters might have a tough day against Geelong at GMHBA.

Any further thoughts out there?
 
Joined
10 Feb 2014
Messages
11,375
Likes
21,228
AFL Club
Essendon
Would you take Durdin’s 74 over Nic Martin or Clark?
I think so. What do we expect Martin and Clark to score?

They've scored well, but expecting much more from 80 from any rookie, especially when the second half of the season hits they often taper off -and the opposition has more intel on them - not that this seems to matter against Essendon or West Coast much. Might get a few more points from one or the other, but could easily get a 30 or 40.

I'd like to know others thoughts on what we expect from Martin vs Clark, as I can either field one or both, moving Martin forward.

Other loop options being - McComb, Rioli, SDK and Long. Will put the E on SDK and go from there. Are Martin and Clark the best options out of that lot?
 
Last edited:
Joined
10 Feb 2014
Messages
11,375
Likes
21,228
AFL Club
Essendon
Take Rosas 51 or roll the dice with Maurice Rioli?
I don't know, but against Essendon Rioli's pressure could result in a bag. Even I'm considering playing him ahead of Martin and Clark. I think I'll stick with Martin though.

I'd probably risk him and roll the dice, but after a 7 in a fairly big win last week who knows?
 
Last edited:
Joined
24 Mar 2015
Messages
4,154
Likes
14,751
AFL Club
North Melb.
Looking ahead to tomorrow...
Ben Hobbs 73 or Greg Clark?

Hough is the loop and there's a chance he becomes the sub - if so that's decision made: take the 73.

But if not, would you roll the dice?
 

Darkie

Leadership Group
Joined
12 Apr 2014
Messages
25,401
Likes
65,467
AFL Club
Collingwood
@Leroy @Termin8er789

I would probably take Clark over 73, and 78 over Clark. That probably seems a bit precise, but you have to draw the line somewhere.

To me it also indicates that you both face a very close call in expected value terms.
 

Tamuhawk

Leadership Group
Joined
4 Feb 2013
Messages
23,423
Likes
66,317
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Didn't think I needed to play this game anymore being 1 premo away from completion but with Bazlenka now out I'm forced to.

Clark vs McComb? No option to loop with both playing against each other.
 
Top