Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[DeliciousJedi]

Thanks, that's great reading.

Actually just a quick thought on Mitchell (I've decided not to go with him) but has there been any analysis on 2nd year players who averaged high (say 80+) and what they achieved the next season? Zorko's 12/13 is obvious example of someone who regressed and Daniel Rich is an example of a player who's plateaued since but any data on the group as a whole?

 

[SonOfGod]

Sorry Rowsus, one more question.

Franklin v Mitchell v Parker?

I'm still a bit worried about Buddy. These days he needs a bag of goals to really inflate his scores, whereas in the past he would also get a bit of the ball.

I don't even know what my gut says, it's so hard to pick one out of those three. I can see some major upside in picking one of Parker or Mitchell, but buddy has the runs on the board.

 

[Rowsus]

Sorry Rowsus, one more question.

Franklin v Mitchell v Parker?

I'm still a bit worried about Buddy. These days he needs a bag of goals to really inflate his scores, whereas in the past he would also get a bit of the ball.

I don't even know what my gut says, it's so hard to pick one out of those three. I can see some major upside in picking one of Parker or Mitchell, but buddy has the runs on the board.

It's one of the toughest questions in SC this season. 90% of teams will have one of them. I ended up on Mitchell, after having Franklin for months, but honestly there is not a lot between the three of them.

 

[Rowsus]

Thanks, that's great reading.

Actually just a quick thought on Mitchell (I've decided not to go with him) but has there been any analysis on 2nd year players who averaged high (say 80+) and what they achieved the next season? Zorko's 12/13 is obvious example of someone who regressed and Daniel Rich is an example of a player who's plateaued since but any data on the group as a whole?

You'd think I would have thought of that by now!
It's a good question, I will put it on my to do/look at list - which is all too late really for this season....... maybe!

 

[Courtesans]

Hi Rowsus,
Am going Liam Shiels over Thomas as M 5. Seems to have flown under the radar a little, was great in the NAB having been released from the tagging role of 2013, Wright like you could say. Now that Sewell is down for a while may assist his prospects. Am I off on a frolic

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,
Am going Liam Shiels over Thomas as M 5. Seems to have flown under the radar a little, was great in the NAB having been released from the tagging role of 2013, Wright like you could say. Now that Sewell is down for a while may assist his prospects. Am I off on a frolic

Slightly. Maybe not frolicking, but lost in a bit of a daydream. Not many sides run hard tags in the NAB, so taggers all of a sudden look more productive. It's a huge risk to assume a new role on NAB form. As usual, it comes down to, does the risk match the potential reward? My answer is no, but I can understand if your answer is yes.
Look at the players available to be picked as Mids in Hawthorns team last year, and what they returned:
Mitchell 104, Hodge 97, Lewis 97, Rioli 87, Burgoyne 85 - that's the 5 highest!!!!
Hawthorn have a "share the ball and the load" type game plan.
To take someone at Shiels Price I would want them to average 100, at the least. That would make him Hawthorn's 2nd best Mid on last seasons figures.

 

[Courtesans]

Slightly. Maybe not frolicking, but lost in a bit of a daydream. Not many sides run hard tags in the NAB, so taggers all of a sudden look more productive. It's a huge risk to assume a new role on NAB form. As usual, it comes down to, does the risk match the potential reward? My answer is no, but I can understand if your answer is yes.
Look at the players available to be picked as Mids in Hawthorns team last year, and what they returned:
Mitchell 104, Hodge 97, Lewis 97, Rioli 87, Burgoyne 85 - that's the 5 highest!!!!
Hawthorn have a "share the ball and the load" type game plan.
To take someone at Shiels Price I would want them to average 100, at the least. That would make him Hawthorn's 2nd best Mid on last seasons figures.

Thanks Rowsus, sensible advice. Cheers.

 

[dyii]

Hey Rowsus, got two questions

1. Based on your calculated figures of price drops, why don't you think Rockliff can improve on last year's average? The obvious case would be that if he's played in the mids all year he will score elite, but I'm not too sold on that. Could you give me your justifications on why Rockliff is/isn't a solid pick?

2. There's a rule about not trading premiums, but what are your thoughts on 'sideways' trading premiums especially in the early rounds? Minson comes to mind, for me between Minson and Mumford, Mumford will maybe average 5-10 less, but is 110k cheaper. This would allow me to upgrade say Suckling to Swallow, and just free up cash.

Thanks for the help Rowsus, appreciate it

 

[HirdofMe?]

Hi Rowsus, another last minute question from me!

Ever since watching Mumford and to a lesser extent Pyke post solid scores, I am having second thoughts about splashing the premium price on Minson. My theory is that if I went Minson down to Lobbe, either Lobbe will perform and he could possible become a keeper, or he could be easily sideway traded to one of Mumford/Pyke/Jacobs/Ryder/McEvoy depending on their performances as I expect at least one of them to possibly become a keeper.

I could then use the extra cash to upgrade Higgins as I am having second thoughts on him to Dahlhaus/Darling/Wright.

Would you consider that a smart move, or do you think I am making an irrational late decision?

Thanks again!

 

[dyii]

In the exact same spot as you mate^ ! Except I'm thinking Suckling>Swallow with the cash.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus, another last minute question from me!

Ever since watching Mumford and to a lesser extent Pyke post solid scores, I am having second thoughts about splashing the premium price on Minson. My theory is that if I went Minson down to Lobbe, either Lobbe will perform and he could possible become a keeper, or he could be easily sideway traded to one of Mumford/Pyke/Jacobs/Ryder/McEvoy depending on their performances as I expect at least one of them to possibly become a keeper.

I could then use the extra cash to upgrade Higgins as I am having second thoughts on him to Dahlhaus/Darling/Wright.

Would you consider that a smart move, or do you think I am making an irrational late decision?

Thanks again!

No, you are trading down to what is perceived to be a lesser Ruck, but not upgrading your other player to a Keeper. While I'm not in the Higgins camp, I really don't think Dahlhaus, Darling or Wright will score high enough to be carried through the season. Stay where you are.

In the exact same spot as you mate^ ! Except I'm thinking Suckling>Swallow with the cash.

Don't knee-jerk on the back of one game, especially as you haven't seen Suckling play yet. Remember Howlett from last season. One game doesn't mean Swallow has arrived!

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus, got two questions

1. Based on your calculated figures of price drops, why don't you think Rockliff can improve on last year's average? The obvious case would be that if he's played in the mids all year he will score elite, but I'm not too sold on that. Could you give me your justifications on why Rockliff is/isn't a solid pick?

2. There's a rule about not trading premiums, but what are your thoughts on 'sideways' trading premiums especially in the early rounds? Minson comes to mind, for me between Minson and Mumford, Mumford will maybe average 5-10 less, but is 110k cheaper. This would allow me to upgrade say Suckling to Swallow, and just free up cash.

Thanks for the help Rowsus, appreciate it

1.Just personal opinion. I think he will be just below last season, and will score better in the 2nd half of the season than the first. Mainly based on Brisbanes tougher draw, and the perception they will win less games this season.

2.It sounds like you are committing 2 trades on the back of 1 games eveidence. I would hold off, and stick with your original thoughts.

 

[HirdofMe?]

Thanks again Rowsus, good point. What about if I could get the cash to get Petrie instead? Maybe by downgrading Tyson to Aish or Michie?

 

[Rowsus]

Thanks again Rowsus, good point. What about if I could get the cash to get Petrie instead? Maybe by downgrading Tyson to Aish or Michie?

So it becomes:

Minson, Higgins, Tyson

v

Lobbe, Petrie, Aish/Michie

That is more tempting, and you could go either way. The 2nd one has 2 potential Keepers, so that's good. The first one has one that we are assuming will be a top 3 Ruck. It's a real line ball call, maybe the 2nd one.

 

[Maso]

having the urge to put wingard into my side good call or bad call

 

[Nk29]

having the urge to put wingard into my side good call or bad call

Bad call. Don't change up your team at the last minute.

 

[Rowsus]

having the urge to put wingard into my side good call or bad call

I think he'll do well this season, and I have him. Having said that, if you didn't rate him high enough before now, I don't think you should change your team now.

 

[Goodie's Guns]

having the urge to put wingard into my side good call or bad call

Bad call. Don't change up your team at the last minute.

I think he'll do well this season, and I have him. Having said that, if you didn't rate him high enough before now, I don't think you should change your team now.

Exactly right fellas, if he wasn't in your planning all preseason then no point changing now.
I personally think he'll have a good year and comfortably be in the top bracket of FWD's.

 

[Maso]

was in and out of fwd line couldnt fit him in but managed to take him over wright with a little rejigging breaking rules early lol

 

[DeliciousJedi]

You'd think I would have thought of that by now!
It's a good question, I will put it on my to do/look at list - which is all too late really for this season....... maybe!

Actually, getting back to this - how would I go about getting the data to figure this out myself?