Position 2022: Ruck Discussion
- Thread starter KLo30
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The Ruck line has been interesting one for me this season.
I started with Grundy, Marshall & Jack Hayes (F/R) but I also had Dixon & English in my Fwds. English is the only survivor and you could argue that was a good pick, but it's hurt having to carry him for 7 (probably 8) weeks.
Ryder came in and cruelled Marshall, so I replaced him with Pruess who scored 5/5 tons across rounds 4-9 (one game out suspended). However, that was effectively the end of the line for him – although I carried him all the way to round 15.
In the mean-time Grundy & Hayes went down in round 6 and I brought in Gawn & Sam Hayes. I then decided to grab as many ruckmen as I could and picked Blicavs (now D/R) in R8 and then both Darcy Cameron (now F/R) and Goldstein (F/R) in R9. Those 3 additions have all been really good. Blitz has averaged 100 from 7, Goldy 106/6 and DC 110/6. Anyway at R9 I had ..
DEF – Blicavs
FWD – English, Dixon, Cameron, Goldstein
RUC – Gawn, Preuss, S. Hayes
At R12 Preuss was still unavailable & Hayes was dropped, so I traded him to Darcy – who (so far) hasn’t done enough.
Then Gawn went down after R13 and was supposed to be out for 5-6 weeks so he went for Teakle who lasted one qtr.
So I’m not short of ruck options, but having tried just about everyone I’m left wondering how I missed the highest scorer of the lot, Jarrod Witts – would have been so much easier if I had started with him!!
I started with Grundy, Marshall & Jack Hayes (F/R) but I also had Dixon & English in my Fwds. English is the only survivor and you could argue that was a good pick, but it's hurt having to carry him for 7 (probably 8) weeks.
Ryder came in and cruelled Marshall, so I replaced him with Pruess who scored 5/5 tons across rounds 4-9 (one game out suspended). However, that was effectively the end of the line for him – although I carried him all the way to round 15.
In the mean-time Grundy & Hayes went down in round 6 and I brought in Gawn & Sam Hayes. I then decided to grab as many ruckmen as I could and picked Blicavs (now D/R) in R8 and then both Darcy Cameron (now F/R) and Goldstein (F/R) in R9. Those 3 additions have all been really good. Blitz has averaged 100 from 7, Goldy 106/6 and DC 110/6. Anyway at R9 I had ..
DEF – Blicavs
FWD – English, Dixon, Cameron, Goldstein
RUC – Gawn, Preuss, S. Hayes
At R12 Preuss was still unavailable & Hayes was dropped, so I traded him to Darcy – who (so far) hasn’t done enough.
Then Gawn went down after R13 and was supposed to be out for 5-6 weeks so he went for Teakle who lasted one qtr.
So I’m not short of ruck options, but having tried just about everyone I’m left wondering how I missed the highest scorer of the lot, Jarrod Witts – would have been so much easier if I had started with him!!
^
I think half the people who started Witts got lucky and just won't admit it.
Many people needed a ruck option after Darcy was out and Gawn had already played...
Some went him thinking ''well, if he averages his past best (95) he might make 100k while i see who the best rucks are''
Don't think there was many who said to themselves ''Yep, Jarrod Witts is my man this season. Will score highly, not get injured and be a keeper''
^ Find me a coach who said that and I'll point you out a liar lol.
I think half the people who started Witts got lucky and just won't admit it.
Many people needed a ruck option after Darcy was out and Gawn had already played...
Some went him thinking ''well, if he averages his past best (95) he might make 100k while i see who the best rucks are''
Don't think there was many who said to themselves ''Yep, Jarrod Witts is my man this season. Will score highly, not get injured and be a keeper''
^ Find me a coach who said that and I'll point you out a liar lol.
I think Witts is a teacher of a big lesson for me...
Take the value and deal with it later if it's not value. Whitfield the only real big failure I can think of, who was easily corrected. Rowell wasn't a big win but he did enough to still be a win.
The likes of Neale, Cripps, Sicily, Witts and Hewett are huge wins. Throw in the Gresham, Coniglio and Brodie types and the list gets even longer.
I think the reality is that those highly undervalued guys where the only real genuine "loser" outcome is injury are just too good these days to pass up.
Even more than that, I'm finding it harder to justify paying top dollar on starting picks. It's defenders but the top 10 this year includes Sicily, Sinclair, Hewett, Dale, Saad and Houston that are all value plays. Stewart, Dawson, Docherty and Crisp the left overs from last year.
Rucks might be even more pronounced where the top 10 includes English, Witts, ROB, Nank, Blicavs and Preuss who all were value options and the other 4 are Gawn, Darcy, Grundy and NicNat, of whom only Gawn isn't at least 10ppg down on starting point.
The mids feel slightly different with a very high carryover.
Forwards I think aren't worth starting heavy in at all now with position changes. Of the top 10 forwards 4 of them weren't available to start there, 1 is Dunkley (who was a value play himself) and the other 5 were pure value plays. So basically hunt underpriced premium plays and then jump on the mids who get it (happens every year from AFLF experience).
Take the value and deal with it later if it's not value. Whitfield the only real big failure I can think of, who was easily corrected. Rowell wasn't a big win but he did enough to still be a win.
The likes of Neale, Cripps, Sicily, Witts and Hewett are huge wins. Throw in the Gresham, Coniglio and Brodie types and the list gets even longer.
I think the reality is that those highly undervalued guys where the only real genuine "loser" outcome is injury are just too good these days to pass up.
Even more than that, I'm finding it harder to justify paying top dollar on starting picks. It's defenders but the top 10 this year includes Sicily, Sinclair, Hewett, Dale, Saad and Houston that are all value plays. Stewart, Dawson, Docherty and Crisp the left overs from last year.
Rucks might be even more pronounced where the top 10 includes English, Witts, ROB, Nank, Blicavs and Preuss who all were value options and the other 4 are Gawn, Darcy, Grundy and NicNat, of whom only Gawn isn't at least 10ppg down on starting point.
The mids feel slightly different with a very high carryover.
Forwards I think aren't worth starting heavy in at all now with position changes. Of the top 10 forwards 4 of them weren't available to start there, 1 is Dunkley (who was a value play himself) and the other 5 were pure value plays. So basically hunt underpriced premium plays and then jump on the mids who get it (happens every year from AFLF experience).
Started with Gawn, Witts and Hayes mate, Witts 133, Hayes 127 round 1! so yeah Neil and Gruffles I felt very lucky, picking the ones who end up scoring early and not getting injured and especially rookies, gives you a huge leg up early on.
As far as Witts goes for me round 1, it was a risk I was willing to take but could've easily backfired also, leaving me short of the cash to get a premo replacement.
As far as Witts goes for me round 1, it was a risk I was willing to take but could've easily backfired also, leaving me short of the cash to get a premo replacement.
Value is definitely something we can't pass up. But spotting the real deal from the fools gold is still much much easier with hindsight...
Woggies point about taking the value then turfing what doesn't work out having much less risk involved then trying to pick and choose though is something I will lock into my brain for next year, perhaps making my first comment points moot lol.
Woggies point about taking the value then turfing what doesn't work out having much less risk involved then trying to pick and choose though is something I will lock into my brain for next year, perhaps making my first comment points moot lol.
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From ‘the vibe of it’, I’d be shocked if on any reasonable metric that this year isn’t bonkers good for successful cheap and mid priced picks. Cheap rookies, well I feel that’s another story…
Witts I feel is a product of injures to opposition, I still expect mean reversion as this season wears on. Cash him in owners.
The extra trades and boost function are crazy useful. This year it allowed me to kinda keep up with a horrible run of injuries, rucks included. I suspect this wears off as people optimise this better.
Position changes are great, additional DPP flex is useful and leaving the forward line open is now critical.
I think the strike rate on mid pricers is unsustainable. The higher average round scoring shows this I believe.
Witts I feel is a product of injures to opposition, I still expect mean reversion as this season wears on. Cash him in owners.
The extra trades and boost function are crazy useful. This year it allowed me to kinda keep up with a horrible run of injuries, rucks included. I suspect this wears off as people optimise this better.
Position changes are great, additional DPP flex is useful and leaving the forward line open is now critical.
I think the strike rate on mid pricers is unsustainable. The higher average round scoring shows this I believe.
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Last year was also though, where this year may be a bit more unique is perhaps how popular they were and how the pricing seemed to almost force our hands a bit towards them meaning we experienced them a lot more.
And I dare say that the trade boosts have fundamentally shifted the entire game in this regard. Having 9 trades available from round 3-5 to correct means you really shouldn't miss too many.
I think it's also a lot easier to pick them than it used to be. 5 years ago it was basically "player moving into the midfield" which was always a complete minefield on incomplete preseason information and load management on stars. I think that one is still the hardest to pick but the move to HBF or the move to ruck are both very easy to pick/see and very lucrative and most teams aren't going to waste minutes in those roles if they're not to play there, ruck synergy is too important to waste on the VFL ruck, the back 6 synergy and kick-in strategy is also too important to waste on someone playing elsewhere. The returning from injury with a history of premium scoring is also very easy to pick, especially if you target "spike scoring" more than average.
Picking the breakout guys is still really hard, especially midfield based, picking a Green over a Caldwell for example is definitely a coin flip (albeit, Caldwell still a very decent cash cow pick), a lot of people picked Butters, albeit his durability is his biggest issue, picking a Sinclair or Houston (as someone who has picked Houston several times) over a May, Heppell or Hind type who regresses is a crapshoot, the breakout backs just seems so random most of the time.
If you apply 3 rules though:
1. Structural position change
2. Premium spike scoring history
3. New club, specific role
I think with the above 3 you'd nail 95% of the past couple of years value picks. It's not foolproof, Whitfield absolutely fits into rule 2 for example but you'd hit far more often than not.
I also don't think there will be as many value plays next year, one of the things that has been more unique the past two years, imo, is the amount of much cheaper value plays. Whitfield priced at 90 odd is 15 points undervalued but also has no scope outside pure premium. Caldwell at 266 is solid enough and makes 150k. Take 5 of Caldwell and have 3 make 125k, 1 push premium levels and 1 bust and you've done brilliantly out of that initial investment. The past two years it's been insane having Brodie, Ziebell, Coniglio, Dale, Gresham, Curnow, Hind, Cumming and a few others put up often genuine premium numbers is over the top but there will always be one or two of them.
And I dare say that the trade boosts have fundamentally shifted the entire game in this regard. Having 9 trades available from round 3-5 to correct means you really shouldn't miss too many.
I think it's also a lot easier to pick them than it used to be. 5 years ago it was basically "player moving into the midfield" which was always a complete minefield on incomplete preseason information and load management on stars. I think that one is still the hardest to pick but the move to HBF or the move to ruck are both very easy to pick/see and very lucrative and most teams aren't going to waste minutes in those roles if they're not to play there, ruck synergy is too important to waste on the VFL ruck, the back 6 synergy and kick-in strategy is also too important to waste on someone playing elsewhere. The returning from injury with a history of premium scoring is also very easy to pick, especially if you target "spike scoring" more than average.
Picking the breakout guys is still really hard, especially midfield based, picking a Green over a Caldwell for example is definitely a coin flip (albeit, Caldwell still a very decent cash cow pick), a lot of people picked Butters, albeit his durability is his biggest issue, picking a Sinclair or Houston (as someone who has picked Houston several times) over a May, Heppell or Hind type who regresses is a crapshoot, the breakout backs just seems so random most of the time.
If you apply 3 rules though:
1. Structural position change
2. Premium spike scoring history
3. New club, specific role
I think with the above 3 you'd nail 95% of the past couple of years value picks. It's not foolproof, Whitfield absolutely fits into rule 2 for example but you'd hit far more often than not.
I also don't think there will be as many value plays next year, one of the things that has been more unique the past two years, imo, is the amount of much cheaper value plays. Whitfield priced at 90 odd is 15 points undervalued but also has no scope outside pure premium. Caldwell at 266 is solid enough and makes 150k. Take 5 of Caldwell and have 3 make 125k, 1 push premium levels and 1 bust and you've done brilliantly out of that initial investment. The past two years it's been insane having Brodie, Ziebell, Coniglio, Dale, Gresham, Curnow, Hind, Cumming and a few others put up often genuine premium numbers is over the top but there will always be one or two of them.
So who's the ruck for me out of:
Witts; Gawn; Darcy; R'OB, Goldy... I've got English. Gawn might be a bit pricey, need to do some maths.
Edit: Actually turns out I can afford Gawn and Mills in the next two weeks to finish off my team with 3 trades left over. So I guess I've got a number of variables to consider.
Witts; Gawn; Darcy; R'OB, Goldy... I've got English. Gawn might be a bit pricey, need to do some maths.
Edit: Actually turns out I can afford Gawn and Mills in the next two weeks to finish off my team with 3 trades left over. So I guess I've got a number of variables to consider.
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#ClusterRuck
