Analysis Number 13

[Impromptu]

With the introduction of the consecutive multi-bye rounds (MBRs) last year, the number 13 has become a quietly important yet dangerous creature without creating much exposure. However, I have decided to expose this sneaky litte creature, which has been hiding in the background without us knowing that it has directly and/or indirectly held us to ransom and effected our SuperCoach results.

Why is round 13 the most important round?

While every round is important and we try to select the player who will score the most points in any given round and in total, I believe round 13 is the most important from a team structure point of view. The reason is that you cannot trade in a round 13 player before the end of the MBRs without accepting a mandatory donut. However, players who are from the round 11 or 12 MBRs can be traded in without copping a mandatory donut.

For example, you have a choice between 3 players, where the first player has a bye in round 11, the second in round 12 and the third in round 13. Now we assume that each player will average the same (say 120 ppg) until the conclusion of the MBRs. Let's use Cotchin (round 11), Dal Santo (round 12) and Ablett (round 13) in our example. All things being equal, Ablett is the better choice than Cotchin and Dal Santo as it means that at the round 13 bye, we can trade in Cotchin and/or Dal Santo without having a donut but at the round 12 bye we can only trade in Cotchin but we can't trade in Ablett without accepting a mandatory donut as Ablett has yet to have his bye.

Two Donuts

In the above example of Cotchin (round 11), Dal Santo (round 12) and Ablett (round 13), it could be argued that at the round 12 bye if we trade in Ablett, we could trade out another round 13 player (in lieu of Ablett) when the round 13 bye comes around. However, if the format of SuperCoach 2013 is the same as SuperCoach 2012 then trading in Ablett and then trading out another round 13 player (in lieu of Ablett) will create an extra donut.

The reason is that every trade used during the MBRs in SuperCoach 2012 is required to be a player who has had his bye already. Otherwise, even if you use a trade to trade out another round 13 bye player in place of Ablett, you are actually using a trade that has already been planned to be used to trade in another player who avoids the donut. It is like stealing the trade from Peter to pay Paul. You may need to have a refresher and read my article last year: 'Two Donuts Please' to understand that if you trade in a player who has yet to have a bye, you will get an additional donut. I must confess that I am guilty of doing this in SuperCoach 2012. In hindsight, it was a shocking error, but unfortunately human nature is that we will always try to avoid the donut upfront or in the current round, even though we know we will eventually cop that donut anyway.

Round 13 Bye MIDs and DEFs

In 2013, the following teams have the round 13 MBRs:

• GWS
• Gold Coast
• Adelaide
• Collingwood
• Essendon
• Carlton

Interestingly, the premium SuperCoach MIDs and DEFs that have the round 13 bye include:

[TABLE="class: grid, width: 450"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]&#65279;&#65279;Ablett (1st @ 138ppg)
[/TD]
[TD]Goddard (2nd @101ppg)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Swan (2nd @ 126ppg)
[/TD]
[TD]Shaw (3rd @ 101ppg)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Pendlebury (3rd @ 125ppg)
[/TD]
[TD]Scotland (4th @ 100ppg)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Beams (4th @ 123ppg)
[/TD]
[TD]Carrazzo (6th @97ppg)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Watson (5th @ 121ppg)
[/TD]
[TD]Heppell (84ppg)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dangerfield (7th @ 119ppg)
[/TD]
[TD]Boughton (GCS) (83ppg)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Murphy (113ppg)
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S.Thompson (110ppg)
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sloane (106ppg)
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Stanton (105ppg)
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]&#65279;&#65279;Judd (104ppg)
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

However, we should note that the non round 13 bye players include:

[TABLE="class: grid, width: 450"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]JP Kennedy (6th @120 ppg)
[/TD]
[TD]Deledio (1st @ 117ppg)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Selwood (8th @ 118ppg)
[/TD]
[TD]Waters (5th @ 100ppg)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cotchin (9th @ 116ppg)
[/TD]
[TD]Birchall (7th @ 95ppg)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Enright (8th @ 94ppg)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Duffield (9th @ 93ppg)
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

Now in a perfect world, we would pick the top 6 MIDs and 7 DEFs however it appears that a high portion of these players have the bye in round 13, therefore the question is what do we do? My preliminary assessment is we need to pick a total of 6 players from the round 13 byes for DEFs and MIDs, which will give us the mandatory 2 donuts assuming the format of SuperCoach 2013 is the same of SuperCoach 2012. Let's assume that the locks are: Goddard (DEF) and Ablett (MID), which means we have 4 players to choose from:

[TABLE="class: grid, width: 450"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]&#65279;&#65279;Swan (2nd @ 126ppg)
[/TD]
[TD]Shaw (3rd @ 101ppg)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Pendlebury (3rd @ 125ppg)
[/TD]
[TD]Scotland (4th @ 100ppg)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Beams (4th @ 123ppg)
[/TD]
[TD]Carrazzo (6th @97ppg)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Watson (5th @ 121ppg)
[/TD]
[TD]Heppell (84ppg)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dangerfield (7th @ 119ppg)
[/TD]
[TD]Boughton (GCS) (83ppg)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Murphy (113ppg)
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S.Thompson (110ppg)
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sloane (106ppg)
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Stanton (105ppg)
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]&#65279;&#65279;Judd (104ppg)
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

If, for example only, we pick Beams, Swan, Pendlebury and Shaw with Ablett and Goddard, we cannot trade in any other round 13 before round 13 otherwise we get an additional donut. If we have Cotchin in our team, who appears to be flavour of the month mainly due to his great late form last year and his round 11 bye, it technically means that you could have 6 MIDS or DEF players from the round 13 bye plus Cotchin. However, I feel that having 5 premium MIDs is excessive especially when we might have a few good rookies. Now if we have Cotchin and 3 MID and 3 DEF, then that is plausable.

I strongly recommend that you have a think of how you will structure your team with respect to the round 13 bye players. The question is should you have Cotchin as your starting team if it means that while you get an extra premium in your team with the 6 round 13 bye DEF or MID premiums, you lose the ability to trade Cotchin in.

It's a very early SuperCoach 2013 preseason, but I wanted to point you to the direction that I'm looking at right now.

The fact that all true brand name premiums all have the round 13 bye means you should spend a lot of time thinking about it. Last year, we had Ablett, Judd, Murphy, Dal Santo, Mitchell with the round 13 byes and Beams, Swan, Pendlebury, Watson, S.Thompson with the round 10 or round 11 byes and therefore, if you held back on these players you could actually trade then in after their bye. However, this year it is completely different.

Remember to think about the Number 13 as right now the main objective should be to plan the round 13 bye structure with regard to the 6 premiums from the MID and DEF. Also remember that these MID premiums are very expensive compared to DEF and FWD premiums which could mean that you get one less premiums.

 

[Goodie's Guns]

Another great article Jay, thanks.
Really gets me thinking of the structure and now the best options to go with to fit in with the structure.
As you say planning the round 13 bye will be quite difficult and require a fair bit of planning.

 

[OzRulesFootball]

Accepting the minimum 2 donuts for the MBR's and structuring them to come from rd 13 bye group would seem to be an option many will take.

One thing you seem to not mention here is Gibbs from round 13 bye group. In 2012 season he was not a premium midfielder, however there is every chance that we will see two important changes with him in 2013 season that make him impossible to ignore.
1) He spends more time in midfield which is always the area for increased player supercoach average
and
2) very likely to be categorized as DEF/MID for Supercoach and Dreamteam which means he clearly becomes
an excellent premium defender choice.

I expect if Goddard and Gibbs are both DEF/MID in 2013 they become two of the top three scoring DEF's for Supercoach with the other being Deledio. I would find it near impossible to consider leaving Goddard and Gibbs out.

5 premium midfielders from the start will be very hard to afford so I doubt I will be filling my midfield starting premiums with 4 or 3 from round 13 bye group. Having 3 premiums from round 13 bye group of midfielders is certainly an option but I think there will be a shift in 2013 season in regards to the order of top ten scoring midfielders. I actually expect 3 of the top 4 scoring midfielders of 2012 season will more than likely fail to reach the same average they achieved in 2012 which means I will not be keen to pay top dollar for them. This is where the game become interesting to me. The forecasting of what will happen the next season and choosing my squad to be best bang for buck based on what I think is more likely to happen. I am more than happy to pay top dollar for a Selwood or Cotchin from non round 13 bye group of midfielders because I sense they can average higher in 2013 than they did in 2012. If it is possible to squeeze 3 premium midfielders + Goddard and Gibbs from round 13 bye groups under the salary cap I will do it but I think the salary cap will see me only choosing 2 premium midfielders from round 13 bye group.

Your article has shown me that I expect a lot of supercoach teams will be picking 5 or 6 premiums from MID and DEF from the round 13 bye group.

 

[Impromptu]

Accepting the minimum 2 donuts for the MBR's and structuring them to come from rd 13 bye group would seem to be an option many will take.

One thing you seem to not mention here is Gibbs from round 13 bye group. In 2012 season he was not a premium midfielder, however there is every chance that we will see two important changes with him in 2013 season that make him impossible to ignore.

5 premium midfielders from the start will be very hard to afford so I doubt I will be filling my midfield starting premiums with 4 or 3 from round 13 bye group. Having 3 premiums from round 13 bye group of midfielders is certainly an option but I think there will be a shift in 2013 season in regards to the order of top ten scoring midfielders. I actually expect 3 of the top 4 scoring midfielders of 2012 season will more than likely fail to reach the same average they achieved in 2012 which means I will not be keen to pay top dollar for them. This is where the game become interesting to me. The forecasting of what will happen the next season and choosing my squad to be best bang for buck based on what I think is more likely to happen. I am more than happy to pay top dollar for a Selwood or Cotchin from non round 13 bye group of midfielders because I sense they can average higher in 2013 than they did in 2012. If it is possible to squeeze 3 premium midfielders + Goddard and Gibbs from round 13 bye groups under the salary cap I will do it but I think the salary cap will see me only choosing 2 premium midfielders from round 13 bye group.

Your article has shown me that I expect a lot of supercoach teams will be picking 5 or 6 premiums from MID and DEF from the round 13 bye group.

Great comments OZRulesFootball and I completely agree with you.

However, remember my article was simply about round 13 bye 'team structure'.

We will discuss Gibbs and other round 13 bye with respect to 'player selection' when SuperCoach Gold provides the preliminary player prices and positions in mid to late December.

With respect to Selwood and Cotchin, again I agree with you. But that is why I said we assume that Cotchin (round 11), Dal Santo (round 12) and Ablett (round 13) average 120 that is 'all things being equal. I actually had a think about player selection on my way driving my son to swimming this morning and I agree that it is possible that 3 of the 4 top midfielders of 2012 may not reach their average in 2013. I was more thinking about Swan possibly not being the old Super Swan, but I'll have to monitor him as he has proven so many people wrong in the past.

The article was solely about team structure with the magic number 13 in mind.

If we assume Ablett, Murphy, Cotchin, Watson averages and priced the same on a per dollar per points basis, then it is preferable to have the round 13 bye players in your initial team as you can trade in a rd 11 bye player, whereas it doesn't work the other way around.

To illustrate why team structure is important an example such as building a house. If you build a house, you don't decide on what type of TV, oven, colour paint, but rather you decide on how many rooms, how many garages (if any). Look at the macro side of the team first then the micro side, in particular as we don't know what their position will be categorised as.

I actually do think a lot of teams will have 5 or 6 premiums from MID and DEF from the round 13 bye rounds, in particular if they read my articles I'm not saying 'it's a given' rule but I usually start off with team structure rather than player selection, mainly because any player can be injured any time before the first bounce.

 

[OzRulesFootball]

I agree that it is possible that 3 of the 4 top midfielders of 2012 may not reach their average in 2013. I was more thinking about Swan possibly not being the old Super Swan, but I'll have to monitor him as he has proven so many people wrong in the past.

The article was solely about team structure with the magic number 13 in mind.

If we assume Ablett, Murphy, Cotchin, Watson averages and priced the same on a per dollar per points basis, then it is preferable to have the round 13 bye players in your initial team as you can trade in a rd 11 bye player, whereas it doesn't work the other way around.

Yeah, makes sense.
I think I'm going prefer to make my upgrade targets be premiums that are some of high scorers for season but that are NOT the best valued on price structure at start of season. Considering when I'm likely to trade for them and at what price will be crucial. For 2013 that means I'm likely to skip getting Beams from the start as I think he is at the highest end of his average right now but get him at some stage later in season when he has dropped quite a bit in price. So far have not given that aspect as much thought but maybe he might be a later upgrade target after the MBR's. Still, I won't be delaying it simply based on avoiding a donut in round 13 if it means skipping a player for too long.

Anyway, best leave that for a later time as you say the article is really just on structure of numbers of premiums rather than specifics.

 

[BC]

Great article jay, in regards to our cashcows/rookies making us $$$, obviously we should be basing them on performance cos the better they score the more money they make but should we also be taking into account there bye rounds too so we have cover for our 22 on the field throug the bye rounds

 

[johno686]

Hope it all pans out unlike last year with all that happen. It hard to plan from the start of the year for the byes

 

[Impromptu]

Hope it all pans out unlike last year with all that happen. It hard to plan from the start of the year for the byes

Yes, but you can't include injuries and/or bad player selection (ie me) when assessing the Bye Strategy.

The Bye Strategy is on an 'all things being equal' basis and with the SC premium midfielders that have round 13 byes, you should be embracing the Bye Strategy this year more than last year.

 

[Zim^zuM]

I would be interested to see some numbers from last season.

Some tried to get a good score each round but one theory I saw many people do was concede one round in order to score reallt well for two. I would be interested to see the 3 round totals of each approach.

 

[Rowsus]

I would be interested to see some numbers from last season.

Some tried to get a good score each round but one theory I saw many people do was concede one round in order to score reallt well for two. I would be interested to see the 3 round totals of each approach.

I started the season with "bye-strategy", and through bad trading changed to "sacrifice one round" strategy. No need to tell you, it ended up fairly disastrous! Two reasons. First, I changed strategy too late to do it properly. Second, like most people I was hard hit with injuries, suspensions and resting players during the 3 bye rounds. From memory I ended up with around 8 or 9 donuts during the byes. "Sacrifice" only works if you are playing for league glory. "Bye-strategy" is unquestionably better for over all status.

 

[OzRulesFootball]

I started the season with "bye-strategy", and through bad trading changed to "sacrifice one round" strategy. No need to tell you, it ended up fairly disastrous! Two reasons. First, I changed strategy too late to do it properly. Second, like most people I was hard hit with injuries, suspensions and rsting players. From memory I ended up with around 8 or 9 donuts during the bye. "Sacrifice" only works if you are playing for league glory. "Bye-strategy" is unquestionably better for over all status.

Yeah, it's got to be done. However as everyone found out , a bunch of injuries, suspensions and late withdrawals can mean the effect of structuring up to minimise the donuts through the byes may get made to appear like there is no real positive benefit. However, it may be the difference for someone in top 10 at end of season in 2013 winning the overall prize or just missing out.

 

[johno686]

It also depends on what they change with less players on the ground or more bench. Plus being able to have a sub for each line.

 

[Zim^zuM]

Me

Round 11: 1294
Round 12: 2031
Round 13: 1746
TOTAL: 5071

A guy that went for one round:

Round 11: 1337
Round 12: 2458
Round 13: 1099
TOTAL 4894

How did others go? Or more importantly how did Chewy go these rounds?. For me to beat this year if I sacrificed one round and got an average of 2200 in the good rounds i'd only need 671 to break even lol. But I only finished 5146th. What I'm trying to get at is we should find a target cumulative score we should aim for. Then try reach that target while leaving our squad how we want it rather than having a few premiums we didn't really want but it suited byes.

if 6200 is our target then it doesn't matter if it's 3 scores of around 2066 or two scores of 2500 and a 1200. And a good reference point to start would be the top 10 teams.

 

[benderiffic]

Hey guys,

I have been having a play around with the team planner for a little while now and did manage to put together a fairly solid initial team. The fixture then came out and a few of my ideas didn't quite fit so again I had a play to make it fit the multi round byes.

Essentially though, the team we start with will not be the team we have come round 11. Yes, we hopefully will still have all our premium guns on the field but ideally by the mid way point of the season our rookies we would have started with will be upgraded or cashed in for players on the bubble.

So how many guns should we be looking at starting with for rounds 11,12 and 13? Rookies seem irrelievant in my opinion, just as long as they are playing round 1.

If I am mistaken could someone else please explain...thanks

 

[BuddyLove]

Me

Round 11: 1294
Round 12: 2031
Round 13: 1746
TOTAL: 5071

A guy that went for one round:

Round 11: 1337
Round 12: 2458
Round 13: 1099
TOTAL 4894

How did others go? Or more importantly how did Chewy go these rounds?. For me to beat this year if I sacrificed one round and got an average of 2200 in the good rounds i'd only need 671 to break even lol. But I only finished 5146th. What I'm trying to get at is we should find a target cumulative score we should aim for. Then try reach that target while leaving our squad how we want it rather than having a few premiums we didn't really want but it suited byes.

if 6200 is our target then it doesn't matter if it's 3 scores of around 2066 or two scores of 2500 and a 1200. And a good reference point to start would be the top 10 teams.

Really good Q's and thinking - here are mine, Chewy and RockDiggity's bye scores

Me
11: 1885
12: 2308
13: 1693

Total 5886


Chewy
11: 1858
12: 2089
13: 1912

Total 5859

RockDiggity
11: 1729
12: 2258
13: 1939

Total 5926

 

[Creeker]

Very interesting thread. You can make up so much ground during the byes with some planning.
For me, I had planned for the byes although round 12 was going to be my downfall, but round 12 ended up my highest score. (still don't know how that happened)
At the start of round 11 my overall ranking was 3829 and when round 13 was completed I had moved up to 1048 in the rankings.

Round 11. 1687
Round 12. 1911
Round 13. 1694

Total. 5292.

 

[Impromptu]

A great mix of conflicting comments in this thread. I've always been of the view that difference of view doesn't necessarily mean the conflicting views are correct or incorrect, but rather it could be the subjective views of the person who provides it. Beauty is in the eye-be-holder.

However, my view is, and I reiterate that the 'Bye Strategy' is on an 'All Things Being Equal' basis. For example and just to recap 2012, I could have chosen Beams and/or Dangerfield to trade in at round 11 (Dangerfield) or round 12 (Dangerfield/Beams) after their Byes, but I chose not too as I didn't expect them to continue to do well (and more likely because of 'my pigheadedness'). I also chose not to make some trades and rather accepted zeros during the MBRs as my ship was sinking, again it had nothing to do with the MBRs.

'Bye Strategy' should not affect your player selection. To be honest, I was going to choose Ablett and Pendles in 2013 and the fact they have round 13 byes, makes my decision much easier, pretty much a lock for me. You cannot include injuries in the MBRs to assess the Bye Strategy as injuries is a random event (naturally some people are more injury prone than others). Therefore, the fact that I had Pendlebury who gave an extra donut/s over Swan due to injuries again has nothing to do with the Bye strategy.

Tto assess the worth of the Bye Strategy, you need to look at where would you be if you chose a different strategy over the Bye strategy, which can be a bit complex to work out with 'what if' scenarios.

I'll just highlight that I strongly believe the 2013 Bye Strategy will give you more of an advantage than 2012 Bye Strategy. In 2012, I actually chose Boomer/Sidebottom over Dangerfield/Beams who coincidentally have the same byes, but just bad player selection

PS - Naturally, your total scores/movement in rankings is important in the assessment but it's not a direct relationship.

 

[BuddyLove]

I'll just highlight that I strongly believe the 2013 Bye Strategy will give you more of an advantage than 2012 Bye Strategy. In 2012, I actually chose Boomer/Sidebottom over Dangerfield/Beams who coincidentally have the same byes, but just bad player selection

Assuming that VS keeps the rules the same as 2012 - why do you believe that 2013 will be more important than 2012?
Are you referring to the glut of premiums in Round13? I believe that 2013 bye strategy will hold exactly the same amount of importance as in 2012 eg. LOTS

 

[Impromptu]

Assuming that VS keeps the rules the same as 2012 - why do you believe that 2013 will be more important than 2012?
Are you referring to the glut of premiums in Round13? I believe that 2013 bye strategy will hold exactly the same amount of importance as in 2012 eg. LOTS

Yes, it's the sheer amount of MID and DEF which we would consider top tier premiums in round 13 byes. Actually you are correct that Bye Strategy 2012 and 2013 are equally as important, but 2013 makes it easier to select top 5/6 round 13 Bye MID or FWD rather try to trade them in such as Watson, Swan and Pendles in 2012.

 

[Courtesans]

Really good Q's and thinking - here are mine, Chewy and RockDiggity's bye scores

Me
11: 1885
12: 2308
13: 1693

Total 5886


Chewy
11: 1858
12: 2089
13: 1912

Total 5859

RockDiggity
11: 1729
12: 2258
13: 1939

Total 5926

Courtesans (me)
11: 1466
12: 2143
13: 1738
Total: 5347
Very interesting....