Position 2023: Midfield Discussion
- Thread starter KLo30
- Start date
Merrett wasn't injured but did cop some tags and did include a period where they were dicking around with him on a wing a bit.
It was Shiel (8 games total), Caldwell (3 games total), Zaharakis (9 games total) and Langford (17), McGrath (15) and Stringer (19 but early in season) that created the opening that he grasped so brilliantly in 2021.
2022 he just never really got rolling, did cop a couple of tags, was injured himself and struggled a bit in both the injury game and then wasn't quite right the last 4 games he played (16, 21-23).
He averaged 118 over the first 11, was injured the first game after the bye.
I actually think he's a really solid option albeit the new coach is a concern for me as just don't know what he'll see or think with the midfield group. I'd say experienced coaches are more likely to go for bigger changes as well, I know a lot of the media thought a lot of Parish's work was kind of harmless over the last two years and I don't entirely disagree, no idea how Scott feels though.
I really rate Hobbs and think Stringer is so dynamic in there (his best work was when Merrett and Parish were with him and also firing) and then there is Shiel, Caldwell, Perkins and Langford to also squeeze through. I definitely think Essendon are one of the most interesting and hardest to work out sides this year. They've got two very distinct selection groups depending on whether Scott is going development or win mode.
My guess would be that positions are purely champion data based, which includes all games whilst prices are purely SC based which excludes finals. The player ratings do match the SC scores so you could justify using them but that would be the only distinction I can really draw.
It was Shiel (8 games total), Caldwell (3 games total), Zaharakis (9 games total) and Langford (17), McGrath (15) and Stringer (19 but early in season) that created the opening that he grasped so brilliantly in 2021.
2022 he just never really got rolling, did cop a couple of tags, was injured himself and struggled a bit in both the injury game and then wasn't quite right the last 4 games he played (16, 21-23).
He averaged 118 over the first 11, was injured the first game after the bye.
I actually think he's a really solid option albeit the new coach is a concern for me as just don't know what he'll see or think with the midfield group. I'd say experienced coaches are more likely to go for bigger changes as well, I know a lot of the media thought a lot of Parish's work was kind of harmless over the last two years and I don't entirely disagree, no idea how Scott feels though.
I really rate Hobbs and think Stringer is so dynamic in there (his best work was when Merrett and Parish were with him and also firing) and then there is Shiel, Caldwell, Perkins and Langford to also squeeze through. I definitely think Essendon are one of the most interesting and hardest to work out sides this year. They've got two very distinct selection groups depending on whether Scott is going development or win mode.
My guess would be that positions are purely champion data based, which includes all games whilst prices are purely SC based which excludes finals. The player ratings do match the SC scores so you could justify using them but that would be the only distinction I can really draw.
Time for the midfield review, I get a feeling this could be a long one given I rate this group this year. Disclaimer that given I'm generally favourable there could be a negative tone as I look for faults extra hard to try and counter my natural inclination!
I got in the zone and went right through to the start of the rookies, this is going to be long, pretty sure I might have gone at least 4 posts long
Laird - I haven't managed to do a draft without him, he was simply brilliant last year after an interrupted preseason, there's a very real case for 130+ this year, he's an incredible captain option and Adelaide get a lot of rare timeslots that tend to work well for this. Peak age range trending into his absolute prime. Sloane returning is really all I've got against him and it's pretty weak. Durability I guess is a knock in this group with 4 games missed in the last 6 seasons. I will say that if Matt Crouch is fit and firing and back in the mix that would probably be the one genuine change that would move me off Laird.
Oliver - This is basically a ditto for me. His ruck support is somehow even better now, I still think he's got a 140 type season in him and as insane as he's been, he's only just entering his prime age based on history. I get a feeling the Demons are pretty motivated this year after falling apart last year and he's just an animal. Biggest knocks are that he missed a game for the first time since his rookie season last year and that maybe he cops an effective tag and can be had cheaper at some point. Honestly, I think he's as likely to push towards 140 as he is to be available for a significant discount.
Neale - He genuinely could be the best of the lot and somehow he's the only one I'm not really gravitating towards. Strong bounce back last year after his preseason ravaged season in 2021. Can't really ignore that 134 season, although I think it's perhaps a covid outlier. Did cop a lot of tags last year, especially late and didn't handle them great. Dunkley and Ashcroft are definitely the two questions that I think could impact him, they'd all but phased Lyon out by end of last season and I expect Zorko stays outside, which means my gut feel is minimal impact, but for me with the quality around him it's not worth the risk to start him. Even if he returns to 135 he's not that much more expensive
Miller - We all know how I feel about him, I will note he's started the last two years poorly which is definitely in the back of my mind amongst a group of superstars. That said I can't help but feel like he's also got 135 range in him, averaged 128 over the last 11, Rowell and Anderson will get better and provide him more support (beating tags with two kids that are focused on their own games is hard work), Witts provides excellent ruck support. The slow starts are really my biggest concern but it's not often I look at guys at 120 and see genuine 15 point upside potential.
Mills - The first guy I'm genuinely a bit down on. We all know my Horse issues, sadly he decided to use a GF to reaffirm them as strongly as he could with probably the worst coaching performance I've ever witnessed in a GF. Mills has upside but I don't think he gets the chance to truly use it. He will probably be used as a stop gap to fill holes a few times in the year, with Warner and Gulden there's two more dynamic guys to go through the middle and over the back half of last year he was pushed out of the main midfield group to a sweeping wing role so that Rowbottom, Warner and Papley could get more CBA, he averaged 111 over this period and I don't see any reason that this wont continue. I think he's our best clearance midfielder and player but Rowbottom can't do anything else and both Papley and Warner provide pure speed that he can't, he's still elite from the wing but at this level losing 10-15 points is a gamechanger.
Bont - Golden ticket, Dunkley out, Treloar so far unsighted in the preseason means we should expect Treloar back to 2021 type role for the first half of the year and Bont to have a heavy midfield workload. I believe Bailey Smith has also had a heavily interrupted preseason which is only more positives for Bont. Honestly, he's another who really does have a 130 season if he can just avoid getting dinged up and carrying it for 4-6 weeks where he plays heavy forward. Adding Lobb, the development of JUH with Naughton, Darcy and Bruce there's just no good reason for him to rot up forward this year, he kind of reminds me of Danger when he went to Geelong and finally wasn't needed forward and just exploded to 130+ for a couple of years. Bont isn't quite as good but he gets even better CD treatment so that can close the gap and his much better kicking sure doesn't hurt! I'm finding it extremely hard to not pick him.
Macrae - Probably the third guy that I've got at least some uncertainty around. Firstly, he's clearly underpriced if he's playing midfield. For many this is enough and I totally understand that, don't get me wrong, he could easily be the top scoring player in the game this year and he's 15 points underpriced on his best. He also historically starts seasons very strongly, he wrecked me last year! My negative is they've lost Hunter and have no wingers and he spent an inordinate amount of time there last year as he was putting his average down to where it is. His CBA dropped by 7% over the last 11 games and his averaged dropped 11 on the back of that but even when he did get CBA he was flanking out to a wing afterwards with others pushing inside, he became peripheral. He's a 110 guy in that role. Bailey Smith can play wing but I think it's holding him back and highlighting his weak kicking, Macrae is, sadly, a better winger. Libba I think eats the majority of Dunkley's absence. Treloar didn't play any centre work over the back half and is also an obvious replacement inside. McLean of course also an option who has been Dunkley lite when used there. Basically will be watching his role and everyone else's very closely because he's either overpriced or severely underpriced depending on role. My gut feel says he's the obvious loser in their midfield roulette because he's the best player of the lot in all the roles
Petracca - Another I'm very high on. I honestly have no idea what happened from round 3 to 12 other than he looked mortal that period. He averaged 123 the rest of the season without really trying. I still look at him and see a 130+ player every day of the week, he does it all (kicking the big issue but it just doesn't seem technical to me) and I see excellent value here. Maybe he's more tease than anything and he's just going to settle in the one teens but I just expect more. All the team related stuff for Oliver applies here also. Another that I have way more reasons to start than not, perhaps the biggest reason not to is I just can't afford it after I pick everyone above
Merrett - Another that falls in the more down category. Only averaged 124 over his last 8 last year which I feel like I write every off-season, he just never seems to start well and he remains extremely vulnerable to tags, even that 124 includes two 70s when he was tagged and he remains the clear tag target because his kicking is too good to let him roam free. He's another one that I watch and can't believe hasn't put together a 130 season. There's two glaring negatives I have, the first I've mentioned, he's been available for less than 550k for basically half a decade now by the byes, mostly because he melts under tags and he gets them regularly as a result. The second is I just have no clue what Scott will do as coach and he's a wildcard, this is a guy who chased out multiple club legends that were in his best couple of players I assume just because he could, that's a level of volatile that I'm happy to wait for more information on.
Brayshaw - Another that I'm relatively high on, I'd personally say I like all the guys I like above more but he's a ball sloot who works phenomenally hard, this is both on and off field so natural improvement is a generally expected outcome of that trait. My knock is pretty simple, he's neither damaging or contested in what he does, they're the golden ticket and it makes every point that bit harder to get. Now there's been many midfielders like him who add that (Macrae and Laird are both very good examples who've had to add those aspects somewhat) and he's definitely at an age range that it could be expected, especially goal kicking which his gut running should create more of and could quickly add 10 points a week. I think his ceiling is lower than the guys above though, it feels like if he hit 125 that would be an outstanding outcome, getting to the 130+ bracket would take a transformation in game style that I don't think Freo would actually want from him given the other mids they have and thus I think he's probably going to be in the 115-120 bracket. That's a rock solid starting pick but, for me, that's low upside compared to others. He's an absolute lock in DT for me though.
Hewett - I was close to his biggest fan on here, one of my few genuine wins last year and he exceeded even what I thought he'd do but I've go zero interest in him this year. I don't see the upside, the durability is an issue unlike everyone above. He's at 0% selections right now and there's no good reason to be the guy going that unique, there's way more losing outcomes than winners on this.
I got in the zone and went right through to the start of the rookies, this is going to be long, pretty sure I might have gone at least 4 posts long
Laird - I haven't managed to do a draft without him, he was simply brilliant last year after an interrupted preseason, there's a very real case for 130+ this year, he's an incredible captain option and Adelaide get a lot of rare timeslots that tend to work well for this. Peak age range trending into his absolute prime. Sloane returning is really all I've got against him and it's pretty weak. Durability I guess is a knock in this group with 4 games missed in the last 6 seasons. I will say that if Matt Crouch is fit and firing and back in the mix that would probably be the one genuine change that would move me off Laird.
Oliver - This is basically a ditto for me. His ruck support is somehow even better now, I still think he's got a 140 type season in him and as insane as he's been, he's only just entering his prime age based on history. I get a feeling the Demons are pretty motivated this year after falling apart last year and he's just an animal. Biggest knocks are that he missed a game for the first time since his rookie season last year and that maybe he cops an effective tag and can be had cheaper at some point. Honestly, I think he's as likely to push towards 140 as he is to be available for a significant discount.
Neale - He genuinely could be the best of the lot and somehow he's the only one I'm not really gravitating towards. Strong bounce back last year after his preseason ravaged season in 2021. Can't really ignore that 134 season, although I think it's perhaps a covid outlier. Did cop a lot of tags last year, especially late and didn't handle them great. Dunkley and Ashcroft are definitely the two questions that I think could impact him, they'd all but phased Lyon out by end of last season and I expect Zorko stays outside, which means my gut feel is minimal impact, but for me with the quality around him it's not worth the risk to start him. Even if he returns to 135 he's not that much more expensive
Miller - We all know how I feel about him, I will note he's started the last two years poorly which is definitely in the back of my mind amongst a group of superstars. That said I can't help but feel like he's also got 135 range in him, averaged 128 over the last 11, Rowell and Anderson will get better and provide him more support (beating tags with two kids that are focused on their own games is hard work), Witts provides excellent ruck support. The slow starts are really my biggest concern but it's not often I look at guys at 120 and see genuine 15 point upside potential.
Mills - The first guy I'm genuinely a bit down on. We all know my Horse issues, sadly he decided to use a GF to reaffirm them as strongly as he could with probably the worst coaching performance I've ever witnessed in a GF. Mills has upside but I don't think he gets the chance to truly use it. He will probably be used as a stop gap to fill holes a few times in the year, with Warner and Gulden there's two more dynamic guys to go through the middle and over the back half of last year he was pushed out of the main midfield group to a sweeping wing role so that Rowbottom, Warner and Papley could get more CBA, he averaged 111 over this period and I don't see any reason that this wont continue. I think he's our best clearance midfielder and player but Rowbottom can't do anything else and both Papley and Warner provide pure speed that he can't, he's still elite from the wing but at this level losing 10-15 points is a gamechanger.
Bont - Golden ticket, Dunkley out, Treloar so far unsighted in the preseason means we should expect Treloar back to 2021 type role for the first half of the year and Bont to have a heavy midfield workload. I believe Bailey Smith has also had a heavily interrupted preseason which is only more positives for Bont. Honestly, he's another who really does have a 130 season if he can just avoid getting dinged up and carrying it for 4-6 weeks where he plays heavy forward. Adding Lobb, the development of JUH with Naughton, Darcy and Bruce there's just no good reason for him to rot up forward this year, he kind of reminds me of Danger when he went to Geelong and finally wasn't needed forward and just exploded to 130+ for a couple of years. Bont isn't quite as good but he gets even better CD treatment so that can close the gap and his much better kicking sure doesn't hurt! I'm finding it extremely hard to not pick him.
Macrae - Probably the third guy that I've got at least some uncertainty around. Firstly, he's clearly underpriced if he's playing midfield. For many this is enough and I totally understand that, don't get me wrong, he could easily be the top scoring player in the game this year and he's 15 points underpriced on his best. He also historically starts seasons very strongly, he wrecked me last year! My negative is they've lost Hunter and have no wingers and he spent an inordinate amount of time there last year as he was putting his average down to where it is. His CBA dropped by 7% over the last 11 games and his averaged dropped 11 on the back of that but even when he did get CBA he was flanking out to a wing afterwards with others pushing inside, he became peripheral. He's a 110 guy in that role. Bailey Smith can play wing but I think it's holding him back and highlighting his weak kicking, Macrae is, sadly, a better winger. Libba I think eats the majority of Dunkley's absence. Treloar didn't play any centre work over the back half and is also an obvious replacement inside. McLean of course also an option who has been Dunkley lite when used there. Basically will be watching his role and everyone else's very closely because he's either overpriced or severely underpriced depending on role. My gut feel says he's the obvious loser in their midfield roulette because he's the best player of the lot in all the roles
Petracca - Another I'm very high on. I honestly have no idea what happened from round 3 to 12 other than he looked mortal that period. He averaged 123 the rest of the season without really trying. I still look at him and see a 130+ player every day of the week, he does it all (kicking the big issue but it just doesn't seem technical to me) and I see excellent value here. Maybe he's more tease than anything and he's just going to settle in the one teens but I just expect more. All the team related stuff for Oliver applies here also. Another that I have way more reasons to start than not, perhaps the biggest reason not to is I just can't afford it after I pick everyone above
Merrett - Another that falls in the more down category. Only averaged 124 over his last 8 last year which I feel like I write every off-season, he just never seems to start well and he remains extremely vulnerable to tags, even that 124 includes two 70s when he was tagged and he remains the clear tag target because his kicking is too good to let him roam free. He's another one that I watch and can't believe hasn't put together a 130 season. There's two glaring negatives I have, the first I've mentioned, he's been available for less than 550k for basically half a decade now by the byes, mostly because he melts under tags and he gets them regularly as a result. The second is I just have no clue what Scott will do as coach and he's a wildcard, this is a guy who chased out multiple club legends that were in his best couple of players I assume just because he could, that's a level of volatile that I'm happy to wait for more information on.
Brayshaw - Another that I'm relatively high on, I'd personally say I like all the guys I like above more but he's a ball sloot who works phenomenally hard, this is both on and off field so natural improvement is a generally expected outcome of that trait. My knock is pretty simple, he's neither damaging or contested in what he does, they're the golden ticket and it makes every point that bit harder to get. Now there's been many midfielders like him who add that (Macrae and Laird are both very good examples who've had to add those aspects somewhat) and he's definitely at an age range that it could be expected, especially goal kicking which his gut running should create more of and could quickly add 10 points a week. I think his ceiling is lower than the guys above though, it feels like if he hit 125 that would be an outstanding outcome, getting to the 130+ bracket would take a transformation in game style that I don't think Freo would actually want from him given the other mids they have and thus I think he's probably going to be in the 115-120 bracket. That's a rock solid starting pick but, for me, that's low upside compared to others. He's an absolute lock in DT for me though.
Hewett - I was close to his biggest fan on here, one of my few genuine wins last year and he exceeded even what I thought he'd do but I've go zero interest in him this year. I don't see the upside, the durability is an issue unlike everyone above. He's at 0% selections right now and there's no good reason to be the guy going that unique, there's way more losing outcomes than winners on this.
Part 2...
Cripps - Honestly, there's a very good case here. Bounced back under a new coach, proving to me it was in fact a coach issue and not a Cripps issue. Likely to get even more favourable judgement now he has a Charlie, Walsh out early means strong case to start big and I still remember happily selecting him at 118 because I saw 130, that's not changed. There is an extremely obvious negative here though and that's durability. As much as I like him as a player, and he's another I was big on last year, I just can't justify him over the other 5+ guys I think have the same kind of explosive potential but don't have the injuries. Wouldn't be at all surprised if he's a top 5 midfielder though and I reckon this is the kind of unique pick that does have great merit.
Walsh - Bad preseason in a field this strong and almost certainly out round one, upgrade target.
Parish - Covered in a post above. I think he's a great potential pick, definitely in that 120+ window. I'm not personally willing to take on Scott as a coach unless there is a very clear sign in preseason games but Parish is right alongside Cripps for mine as the kind of unique pick that makes exceptional sense.
Steele - Obviously underpriced, his ironman status got rocked last year but he's been otherwise great. Preseason talk has been about as bipolar as you could get, he's either got one foot in the grave or the greatest player ever. Will wait for the games but he's a proven 125 scorer with a 15 point discount. If he looks remotely fit and Ross Lyon isn't doing some kind of funky town flex of randomness then he's got to spear right to the top of the list. Honestly, I'd be shocked if his role changed and if it did then I'd basically take it as confirmation of the negative preseason scouting reports because that would be the only logical explanation. Preseason will confirm whether he's the automatic pick or dodge, he should either be in every side or none
Kelly - He has the same two question marks he has every year. Durability and playing for a club who seemingly want to patent doing stupid ****. He's been played mostly out of position for the best part of a decade so that less talented players can find roles to butcher the pill. Two of those players left this year and for the first time in a long time they've got a very clear best 4 midfielders and one of those the whole club seems obsessed with trying to play as an, admittedly great, undersized full forward. They also just traded up for pick 1 to use on a full forward, have Hogan and seemingly want to use their best intercept and rebound defender as an outmatched CHF so there's no good reason for Greene to be there (but he will be) which means realistically they've got an absurdly clear best 3 midfielders. Will that stop them lining up round one with Ward, Ash and Whitfield roving to Briggs, almost certainly not, BUT let's assume that Kingsley actually has a say and is trying to win games, THEN Kelly, Coniglio and Greene are their midfield for as much of the games as those three can manage and Ward, Ash and, logically, Greene, would give them support. In this entirely logical, and thus completely illogical, scenario Kelly is a 125+ guy. If you've read this far then I hope you've picked up that I don't trust this club. Throw in the durability and I just can't do it.
Wines - I got him very cheap last year (so did the eventual winner fwiw) and he was really solid but even then his average just isn't good enough. I actually think he can average 120, he really does everything right and having Butters, Boak and Rozee as guys to use it outside should push him more into the role he scores best in but his kicking is too much of a cap on his scoring and while it wouldn't surprise me at all if he did average 125 I think he's another in that it just doesn't make any sense to be punting on as an ultra unique POD.
Boak - Not for mine, he was the sacrificial lamb for Rozee's explosion and at this point it makes no sense to go back, I expect he's going to get FWD status and be viable at that point but you shouldn't start someone on that punt.
Liberatore - Another that I actually like a lot, like Wines, but I can't justify the risk. If he's fit and his role is perfect he can push the 125 range and with Dunkley out it makes sense for that to happen but there's still the Smith, Treloar and Macrae wildcards, which is too much volatility for a guy who needs perfection.
Parker - Not for mine. Too many extremely dynamic young guns coming through, too good playing forward to not be the obvious sacrifice. Basically the exact same scenario as Boak for mine.
Crouch - Not for mine, durability record is too dreadful, kicking is possibly even worse and a new coach always creates uncertainty.
McCluggage - I promise he wont sucker me in again this year (bet you he does...). With Dunkley and Ashcroft I feel he's a step further away from playing midfield. Similar to Mills or Macrae vibe, he's too good playing wing which no one else can do to play in his own best position.
Brodie - There's upside here, honestly, his gamestyle could easily support a 120 average, Mundy out but JOM probably displaces that and hurts Brodie more as he's more similar to Brodie than Mundy. As much as I can see upside, I can't see enough certainty to justify going beyond that.
LDU - This one is tough, I've loved him since the first preseason game I've seen, it's not light praise but he's closest thing to Judd I've seen in style and movement. He's taken an incredibly long time to build the fitness base needed but it seemed to click last year and honestly he's a flawless SC specimen in style, contested bull that can break clean of stoppages and actually hit targets, can hit the scoreboard. He's the perfect profile but as much as the fitness has improved, it's still a long way off so if you're picking him you're backing him to push it to the level that it needs to be. He's got a 130+ profile stylistically. I don't think 120 is an unreasonable expectation if you're picking him. I do think he's a perfect type to take the risk on. I hate the Clarkson aspect as he's unpredictable and you really want certainty. I'll be watching his preseason. He's the type I pick for 3 years expecting the breakout and then give up for them to go supersaiyan... Right now, strong watchlist.
Anderson - Fundamentally fits into the Brayshaw category for mine. He's a couple of years younger and a bit more contested in nature which is a positive but his kicking is comical at times and a huge hole and they've already got Rowell as a pretty much pure handballer so very hard for Anderson to play that role more which would probably tighten his scoring. Still think he's a strong pick but I'd say if he matched Brayshaw's season last year that would be a very solid season, which means I think you're picking your M8 here and you'll generally find that for less than his starting price in season. Like Brayshaw, I'm going to have a very hard time not selecting him in DT, fwiw.
Keays - If he could kick he's a 130 guy, instead he's a 115, he's probably the worst kicking midfielder in 15 years and the ugliest left foot kick I can recall. If half the league worked as hard as he does they'd be at GAJ level, I respect just how hard he works and I reckon he'd be one of the best teammates in the league but that kicking matters in SC! The injury and/or forward role to close out last season scares me, if it's the OP that's bad, if it's a position move that's probably worse. Like Anderson, I can't justify aiming for an M8 in my starting team that has those question marks.
Guthrie - Sneaky under the radar value here but he also falls into picking your starting M7-8 as your reasonable best case at a price that can generally be bested in season. I do think with all the extra trades though there is a strong case for actually reversing logic and it's a strategy that could win, basically pick the bottom few spots on each line from the value pool and target the top end exclusively with increased information of exactly who they are. If you were trying that I reckon Guthrie would be my go, feel solid about him going 110+ this year.
Short - No interest for mine, his average is actually propped up by his defensive scores, with the additions he should go back but I'll wait and see if he does and grab him then rather than chase it. Also with Rioli and Vlastuin there'll be more sharing there than previously.
B. Smith - Limited preseason is a knock but his upside is crazy high. Another with kicking issues, big time, but does everything else. Role uncertainty and the preseason enough to rule out for me but he's one of the highest upside options for sure. Always a strong chance of getting forward is a nice security for a moon shot also.
Ross - Yeah, nah.
Green - Another huge upside play. See Kelly, Josh for my thoughts. He's cheaper, more one dimensional and perhaps even higher upside, so I like him more. If I could trust the club this would be a lot easier to go with but there's just no good reason he can't average 125, he's as good a contested player as there is, he kicks goals and he uses it pretty well and even adds in contested marking around the ground. Ability to play a whole season at the level required and general fitness to get the TOG have both been his big issues, both are aspects that improve with time. I reckon this is the punt I'd take from this group at this point in time, hopefully preseason will give us some clarity on GWS. He's very high on my watchlist. Unlike most in this price range, I think you can reasonably argue you're picking an M3 level player here which leaves M8 as a very reasonable "failure" point. Having that extreme ceiling gives you so much more room on the pick to still be winning.
Cripps - Honestly, there's a very good case here. Bounced back under a new coach, proving to me it was in fact a coach issue and not a Cripps issue. Likely to get even more favourable judgement now he has a Charlie, Walsh out early means strong case to start big and I still remember happily selecting him at 118 because I saw 130, that's not changed. There is an extremely obvious negative here though and that's durability. As much as I like him as a player, and he's another I was big on last year, I just can't justify him over the other 5+ guys I think have the same kind of explosive potential but don't have the injuries. Wouldn't be at all surprised if he's a top 5 midfielder though and I reckon this is the kind of unique pick that does have great merit.
Walsh - Bad preseason in a field this strong and almost certainly out round one, upgrade target.
Parish - Covered in a post above. I think he's a great potential pick, definitely in that 120+ window. I'm not personally willing to take on Scott as a coach unless there is a very clear sign in preseason games but Parish is right alongside Cripps for mine as the kind of unique pick that makes exceptional sense.
Steele - Obviously underpriced, his ironman status got rocked last year but he's been otherwise great. Preseason talk has been about as bipolar as you could get, he's either got one foot in the grave or the greatest player ever. Will wait for the games but he's a proven 125 scorer with a 15 point discount. If he looks remotely fit and Ross Lyon isn't doing some kind of funky town flex of randomness then he's got to spear right to the top of the list. Honestly, I'd be shocked if his role changed and if it did then I'd basically take it as confirmation of the negative preseason scouting reports because that would be the only logical explanation. Preseason will confirm whether he's the automatic pick or dodge, he should either be in every side or none
Kelly - He has the same two question marks he has every year. Durability and playing for a club who seemingly want to patent doing stupid ****. He's been played mostly out of position for the best part of a decade so that less talented players can find roles to butcher the pill. Two of those players left this year and for the first time in a long time they've got a very clear best 4 midfielders and one of those the whole club seems obsessed with trying to play as an, admittedly great, undersized full forward. They also just traded up for pick 1 to use on a full forward, have Hogan and seemingly want to use their best intercept and rebound defender as an outmatched CHF so there's no good reason for Greene to be there (but he will be) which means realistically they've got an absurdly clear best 3 midfielders. Will that stop them lining up round one with Ward, Ash and Whitfield roving to Briggs, almost certainly not, BUT let's assume that Kingsley actually has a say and is trying to win games, THEN Kelly, Coniglio and Greene are their midfield for as much of the games as those three can manage and Ward, Ash and, logically, Greene, would give them support. In this entirely logical, and thus completely illogical, scenario Kelly is a 125+ guy. If you've read this far then I hope you've picked up that I don't trust this club. Throw in the durability and I just can't do it.
Wines - I got him very cheap last year (so did the eventual winner fwiw) and he was really solid but even then his average just isn't good enough. I actually think he can average 120, he really does everything right and having Butters, Boak and Rozee as guys to use it outside should push him more into the role he scores best in but his kicking is too much of a cap on his scoring and while it wouldn't surprise me at all if he did average 125 I think he's another in that it just doesn't make any sense to be punting on as an ultra unique POD.
Boak - Not for mine, he was the sacrificial lamb for Rozee's explosion and at this point it makes no sense to go back, I expect he's going to get FWD status and be viable at that point but you shouldn't start someone on that punt.
Liberatore - Another that I actually like a lot, like Wines, but I can't justify the risk. If he's fit and his role is perfect he can push the 125 range and with Dunkley out it makes sense for that to happen but there's still the Smith, Treloar and Macrae wildcards, which is too much volatility for a guy who needs perfection.
Parker - Not for mine. Too many extremely dynamic young guns coming through, too good playing forward to not be the obvious sacrifice. Basically the exact same scenario as Boak for mine.
Crouch - Not for mine, durability record is too dreadful, kicking is possibly even worse and a new coach always creates uncertainty.
McCluggage - I promise he wont sucker me in again this year (bet you he does...). With Dunkley and Ashcroft I feel he's a step further away from playing midfield. Similar to Mills or Macrae vibe, he's too good playing wing which no one else can do to play in his own best position.
Brodie - There's upside here, honestly, his gamestyle could easily support a 120 average, Mundy out but JOM probably displaces that and hurts Brodie more as he's more similar to Brodie than Mundy. As much as I can see upside, I can't see enough certainty to justify going beyond that.
LDU - This one is tough, I've loved him since the first preseason game I've seen, it's not light praise but he's closest thing to Judd I've seen in style and movement. He's taken an incredibly long time to build the fitness base needed but it seemed to click last year and honestly he's a flawless SC specimen in style, contested bull that can break clean of stoppages and actually hit targets, can hit the scoreboard. He's the perfect profile but as much as the fitness has improved, it's still a long way off so if you're picking him you're backing him to push it to the level that it needs to be. He's got a 130+ profile stylistically. I don't think 120 is an unreasonable expectation if you're picking him. I do think he's a perfect type to take the risk on. I hate the Clarkson aspect as he's unpredictable and you really want certainty. I'll be watching his preseason. He's the type I pick for 3 years expecting the breakout and then give up for them to go supersaiyan... Right now, strong watchlist.
Anderson - Fundamentally fits into the Brayshaw category for mine. He's a couple of years younger and a bit more contested in nature which is a positive but his kicking is comical at times and a huge hole and they've already got Rowell as a pretty much pure handballer so very hard for Anderson to play that role more which would probably tighten his scoring. Still think he's a strong pick but I'd say if he matched Brayshaw's season last year that would be a very solid season, which means I think you're picking your M8 here and you'll generally find that for less than his starting price in season. Like Brayshaw, I'm going to have a very hard time not selecting him in DT, fwiw.
Keays - If he could kick he's a 130 guy, instead he's a 115, he's probably the worst kicking midfielder in 15 years and the ugliest left foot kick I can recall. If half the league worked as hard as he does they'd be at GAJ level, I respect just how hard he works and I reckon he'd be one of the best teammates in the league but that kicking matters in SC! The injury and/or forward role to close out last season scares me, if it's the OP that's bad, if it's a position move that's probably worse. Like Anderson, I can't justify aiming for an M8 in my starting team that has those question marks.
Guthrie - Sneaky under the radar value here but he also falls into picking your starting M7-8 as your reasonable best case at a price that can generally be bested in season. I do think with all the extra trades though there is a strong case for actually reversing logic and it's a strategy that could win, basically pick the bottom few spots on each line from the value pool and target the top end exclusively with increased information of exactly who they are. If you were trying that I reckon Guthrie would be my go, feel solid about him going 110+ this year.
Short - No interest for mine, his average is actually propped up by his defensive scores, with the additions he should go back but I'll wait and see if he does and grab him then rather than chase it. Also with Rioli and Vlastuin there'll be more sharing there than previously.
B. Smith - Limited preseason is a knock but his upside is crazy high. Another with kicking issues, big time, but does everything else. Role uncertainty and the preseason enough to rule out for me but he's one of the highest upside options for sure. Always a strong chance of getting forward is a nice security for a moon shot also.
Ross - Yeah, nah.
Green - Another huge upside play. See Kelly, Josh for my thoughts. He's cheaper, more one dimensional and perhaps even higher upside, so I like him more. If I could trust the club this would be a lot easier to go with but there's just no good reason he can't average 125, he's as good a contested player as there is, he kicks goals and he uses it pretty well and even adds in contested marking around the ground. Ability to play a whole season at the level required and general fitness to get the TOG have both been his big issues, both are aspects that improve with time. I reckon this is the punt I'd take from this group at this point in time, hopefully preseason will give us some clarity on GWS. He's very high on my watchlist. Unlike most in this price range, I think you can reasonably argue you're picking an M3 level player here which leaves M8 as a very reasonable "failure" point. Having that extreme ceiling gives you so much more room on the pick to still be winning.
Part 3...
Viney - Nope.
Warner - See Mills for my Horse trust issues but this is another absurd upside play. He's got the potential to be the best midfielder I've seen at Sydney since Paul Kelly, heck I'd even say that Paul Kelly is the best comparison I have for him, if you take my word on anything, take my word that a Paul Kelly comparison is about as high a praise as I could ever give, honestly he was basically the perfect midfielder for anyone I've gone too deep on the time frame for comparisons! So the negatives are easy, Horse position roulette and tags, he broke a couple, died under a couple in the last 10 weeks. He averaged 114 over the last 8 (dips a bit with the Melbourne final if including those but was outstanding in the other two). Durability has to date been good, admittedly limited reference points. He's that ultra rare midfielder that wins contested ball, breaks from contest and is in the elite of the elite kicking it. Needs to tackle more but another preseason should help with that and guys who are as game breaking at stoppages as him will always be lower in that area because they're the primary moving target. He's the one young gun I'm genuinely happy and support getting midfield minutes over Mills and Heeney. He genuinely could win a Brownlow this year, he's that good. He needs to get more pill, tackle more and would be nice if he'd spread better from contests to get more easy ball in space and, honestly, that's the perfect group of "weaknesses" you want in ridiculous break outs. For what it's worth that was basically Dangerfield's list before he went supersaiyan. Given he's probably the best kick in the team (we've got Mills, Gulden, Campbell and Blakey so that's not hollow praise) and that he is nigh on uncatchable when on the run it makes zero sense that his entire preseason wouldn't be focused on how to break from stoppages to remain dangerous. If he jumps to 28 touches, adds a couple of marks and a tackle, that's 120+ with how he uses and his ability to kick goals if he gets the ball within 120m of goal. Ok, so the potential is absurd but time to temper that, I think he ends up more likely in the 110-115 range, you've got to account for Horse, he'll do random stuff, there'll be a month where he experiments, load manages or whatever he does, I think tags are going to be a huge issue and that this year will be spent working through them and how to beat them, this is a positive long term as the things he needs to add to break them are the same things that will allow him to average 135 and be the best midfielder in the league, this is the year that will test him on whether that is the goal or if he's happy with being really, really good. He's another one who is an exceptional breakout pick, perfect season for him is probably 130, he should push towards 110, which is an M8 failure point, he's cheap enough you wont do much better in season on that 110 outcome. I can't fault anyone who goes this pick and I honestly hope you've nailed it!
Kennedy - I like him but his durability is terrible and I can't see how he goes to a higher level barring injuries to others.
Treloar - Preseason issues dent what could have been a very interesting play if he'd claimed the Dunkley role. I think he probably starts forward as they ease him in and becomes viable as a result at round 6.
Titch - I have absolutely no read on him. He's got his issues, I don't think the Pies style suits him, his defensive work definitely slipped last year, I'm not entirely sold the Hawks phased him out of the guts purely just to give the kids minutes. On the flipside, he's exactly what the Pies need inside, his best role by so much it's not funny, with Pendles, Sidey, Daicos x2, Maynard and Crisp there's a lot of smooth moving outside types for him to create scoring chains through, his scoring history is impeccable in the right role, his durability has been excellent, albeit has been banged up a few times. Honestly, I'm going to find it hard to not pick him if he busts out a big preseason score, you could argue that all the negatives I listed on him have applied his whole career. There's definitely a concern that none of the Pies mids scored well last year given Macrae is a Richmond disciple and it's unavoidable that they played a similar style last year of chaos ball. Honestly, I don't want to pick him so I'm hoping he gives me that 95 type score that allows me to but of all the players I want to avoid on this list, he's the one giving me the most Sicily vibes (aka the prick that will ruin my season entirely this year when I don't pick them, Sicily is just the latest and actually one of the few I didn't like, normally it's someone like Mitchell that I have a soft spot for!). Honestly, he's hard to argue against.
Crisp - Not for mine, if he goes back, scores well and all that, then he'll get DPP but I'm not picking a guy I don't think can hit M8 levels on those grounds.
Perryman - Nope.
Prestia - Nope, durability, new horses, Richmond, etc.
Shiel - Nope.
Amon - No one will pick him but when I look at the Hawks list he's quite clearly their best midfielder and I love Newcombe and Wingard but he's just so much better in creating space and using up territory than Newcombe and he's just way more reliable than Wingard. He's not as good a kick as he looks but he's got serious ability to find the ball when used as a midfielder, which was incredibly infrequent at Port where they're loaded in that area with what are just better players in Boak, Wines, Rozee and Butters especially but he fits the Hawks style well. The question for me though is do they use him on a wing, where they've got so many other options, or do they throw him inside and unleash him. He could easily average 115+ on the latter, he's a few points underpriced only on the latter role. Mitchell mostly did things that made sense last year, I personally thought he was clear coach of the year so I rated what he did so unlike some other coaches I have faith here. Not enough to take the punt on Amon but honestly, of the 0% guys he's absolutely the one I'd pick if his role looks good.
Cerra - Not for mine, may start hot while Walsh is out but I can't see the role, like a McCluggage, he's the guy who's excellent on a wing in a midfield group of, excellent, grunts.
Lyons - He looked to have been phased out last year, obviously if he wasn't and there was something wrong and he's back in the guts he's a must watch. He's right at the prime range for you're not likely to beat this starting price for your M8 in season and he's a proven 117 scorer, that's higher than M8 potential. Dunkley and Ashcroft and the way he finished last year would take some serious convincing for mine but he's still a must watch.
Simpkin - I don't know why but I still like him, he's so close to that, "He is what he is" declaration and I can't even really say why I expect he could score 115 other than I actually don't understand why he doesn't already. He's really good at basically everything you'd want but just doesn't seem to roll over to the next level to be great. Part of it is a terrible team but others have overcome that. I mean I'm not even going to bother here but one year I expect he'll have that season and I'll feel good on the inside!
Serong - Yet another who can have a brilliant case made, in a weird way he's already on the Simpkin path where he's kind of been a notch below what I expect each year and yet still really good. JOM is super unfortunate, from a fantasy perspective he's just a thorn in all the relevant guys' sides. Honestly, I love Serong as a player but there's nothing he does right now that makes me go 120+ potential, he may yet add those traits but I think he struggles to push past 110, probably good for an M8 pick at his price but, broken record, I think there's higher upside options than that target unless you're genuinely trying a left field strategy on that.
M. Crouch - I think I've moved on from this guy getting me every preseason, just. If the word of an exceptional and perfect preseason came out and he tore the preseason to shreds then maybe he'd drag me back into our toxic relationship like that ex we all screw up and go back to after one drink too many and just like we regret that, I will regret if I start Crouch again and yet... At this point I think he's more a reason to not pick Laird than he's an option himself.
Rowell - Wouldn't shock me at all if he averaged 115, not one bit. I'm not going near it as it wouldn't surprise me if he played 4 games, dropped 50k and needed a trade and I can't find a strong case for option A being more likely than option B. Seriously though, this isn't a bad value play here. He still spent a lot of time last year doing defensive jobs and experimental running patterns and unrewarded positioning, not even bad spots but just options that a good team uses and a bad team ignores, aka he does things at levels that a lot of his teammates aren't looking for. He tackles a lot, he uses the ball well despite the ugly kicking action and he refuses to not make everything contested. Not dissimilar to Warner in that the areas to improve are the "easy" areas to improve. He needs to work to space and demand the ball more, just get more easy pill in general and for Rowell, hit the scoreboard (a lot more). They're the easiest aspects to improve when targeting a breakout and a lot of it is just going to come from confidence and improved fitness bases. I'm not picking him but I actually really like his breakout candidacy and he's another of those super unique plays that I think is actually a very good one.
Viney - Nope.
Warner - See Mills for my Horse trust issues but this is another absurd upside play. He's got the potential to be the best midfielder I've seen at Sydney since Paul Kelly, heck I'd even say that Paul Kelly is the best comparison I have for him, if you take my word on anything, take my word that a Paul Kelly comparison is about as high a praise as I could ever give, honestly he was basically the perfect midfielder for anyone I've gone too deep on the time frame for comparisons! So the negatives are easy, Horse position roulette and tags, he broke a couple, died under a couple in the last 10 weeks. He averaged 114 over the last 8 (dips a bit with the Melbourne final if including those but was outstanding in the other two). Durability has to date been good, admittedly limited reference points. He's that ultra rare midfielder that wins contested ball, breaks from contest and is in the elite of the elite kicking it. Needs to tackle more but another preseason should help with that and guys who are as game breaking at stoppages as him will always be lower in that area because they're the primary moving target. He's the one young gun I'm genuinely happy and support getting midfield minutes over Mills and Heeney. He genuinely could win a Brownlow this year, he's that good. He needs to get more pill, tackle more and would be nice if he'd spread better from contests to get more easy ball in space and, honestly, that's the perfect group of "weaknesses" you want in ridiculous break outs. For what it's worth that was basically Dangerfield's list before he went supersaiyan. Given he's probably the best kick in the team (we've got Mills, Gulden, Campbell and Blakey so that's not hollow praise) and that he is nigh on uncatchable when on the run it makes zero sense that his entire preseason wouldn't be focused on how to break from stoppages to remain dangerous. If he jumps to 28 touches, adds a couple of marks and a tackle, that's 120+ with how he uses and his ability to kick goals if he gets the ball within 120m of goal. Ok, so the potential is absurd but time to temper that, I think he ends up more likely in the 110-115 range, you've got to account for Horse, he'll do random stuff, there'll be a month where he experiments, load manages or whatever he does, I think tags are going to be a huge issue and that this year will be spent working through them and how to beat them, this is a positive long term as the things he needs to add to break them are the same things that will allow him to average 135 and be the best midfielder in the league, this is the year that will test him on whether that is the goal or if he's happy with being really, really good. He's another one who is an exceptional breakout pick, perfect season for him is probably 130, he should push towards 110, which is an M8 failure point, he's cheap enough you wont do much better in season on that 110 outcome. I can't fault anyone who goes this pick and I honestly hope you've nailed it!
Kennedy - I like him but his durability is terrible and I can't see how he goes to a higher level barring injuries to others.
Treloar - Preseason issues dent what could have been a very interesting play if he'd claimed the Dunkley role. I think he probably starts forward as they ease him in and becomes viable as a result at round 6.
Titch - I have absolutely no read on him. He's got his issues, I don't think the Pies style suits him, his defensive work definitely slipped last year, I'm not entirely sold the Hawks phased him out of the guts purely just to give the kids minutes. On the flipside, he's exactly what the Pies need inside, his best role by so much it's not funny, with Pendles, Sidey, Daicos x2, Maynard and Crisp there's a lot of smooth moving outside types for him to create scoring chains through, his scoring history is impeccable in the right role, his durability has been excellent, albeit has been banged up a few times. Honestly, I'm going to find it hard to not pick him if he busts out a big preseason score, you could argue that all the negatives I listed on him have applied his whole career. There's definitely a concern that none of the Pies mids scored well last year given Macrae is a Richmond disciple and it's unavoidable that they played a similar style last year of chaos ball. Honestly, I don't want to pick him so I'm hoping he gives me that 95 type score that allows me to but of all the players I want to avoid on this list, he's the one giving me the most Sicily vibes (aka the prick that will ruin my season entirely this year when I don't pick them, Sicily is just the latest and actually one of the few I didn't like, normally it's someone like Mitchell that I have a soft spot for!). Honestly, he's hard to argue against.
Crisp - Not for mine, if he goes back, scores well and all that, then he'll get DPP but I'm not picking a guy I don't think can hit M8 levels on those grounds.
Perryman - Nope.
Prestia - Nope, durability, new horses, Richmond, etc.
Shiel - Nope.
Amon - No one will pick him but when I look at the Hawks list he's quite clearly their best midfielder and I love Newcombe and Wingard but he's just so much better in creating space and using up territory than Newcombe and he's just way more reliable than Wingard. He's not as good a kick as he looks but he's got serious ability to find the ball when used as a midfielder, which was incredibly infrequent at Port where they're loaded in that area with what are just better players in Boak, Wines, Rozee and Butters especially but he fits the Hawks style well. The question for me though is do they use him on a wing, where they've got so many other options, or do they throw him inside and unleash him. He could easily average 115+ on the latter, he's a few points underpriced only on the latter role. Mitchell mostly did things that made sense last year, I personally thought he was clear coach of the year so I rated what he did so unlike some other coaches I have faith here. Not enough to take the punt on Amon but honestly, of the 0% guys he's absolutely the one I'd pick if his role looks good.
Cerra - Not for mine, may start hot while Walsh is out but I can't see the role, like a McCluggage, he's the guy who's excellent on a wing in a midfield group of, excellent, grunts.
Lyons - He looked to have been phased out last year, obviously if he wasn't and there was something wrong and he's back in the guts he's a must watch. He's right at the prime range for you're not likely to beat this starting price for your M8 in season and he's a proven 117 scorer, that's higher than M8 potential. Dunkley and Ashcroft and the way he finished last year would take some serious convincing for mine but he's still a must watch.
Simpkin - I don't know why but I still like him, he's so close to that, "He is what he is" declaration and I can't even really say why I expect he could score 115 other than I actually don't understand why he doesn't already
. He's really good at basically everything you'd want but just doesn't seem to roll over to the next level to be great. Part of it is a terrible team but others have overcome that. I mean I'm not even going to bother here but one year I expect he'll have that season and I'll feel good on the inside!Serong - Yet another who can have a brilliant case made, in a weird way he's already on the Simpkin path where he's kind of been a notch below what I expect each year and yet still really good. JOM is super unfortunate, from a fantasy perspective he's just a thorn in all the relevant guys' sides. Honestly, I love Serong as a player but there's nothing he does right now that makes me go 120+ potential, he may yet add those traits but I think he struggles to push past 110, probably good for an M8 pick at his price but, broken record, I think there's higher upside options than that target unless you're genuinely trying a left field strategy on that.
M. Crouch - I think I've moved on from this guy getting me every preseason, just. If the word of an exceptional and perfect preseason came out and he tore the preseason to shreds then maybe he'd drag me back into our toxic relationship like that ex we all screw up and go back to after one drink too many and just like we regret that, I will regret if I start Crouch again and yet... At this point I think he's more a reason to not pick Laird than he's an option himself.
Rowell - Wouldn't shock me at all if he averaged 115, not one bit. I'm not going near it as it wouldn't surprise me if he played 4 games, dropped 50k and needed a trade and I can't find a strong case for option A being more likely than option B. Seriously though, this isn't a bad value play here. He still spent a lot of time last year doing defensive jobs and experimental running patterns and unrewarded positioning, not even bad spots but just options that a good team uses and a bad team ignores, aka he does things at levels that a lot of his teammates aren't looking for. He tackles a lot, he uses the ball well despite the ugly kicking action and he refuses to not make everything contested. Not dissimilar to Warner in that the areas to improve are the "easy" areas to improve. He needs to work to space and demand the ball more, just get more easy pill in general and for Rowell, hit the scoreboard (a lot more). They're the easiest aspects to improve when targeting a breakout and a lot of it is just going to come from confidence and improved fitness bases. I'm not picking him but I actually really like his breakout candidacy and he's another of those super unique plays that I think is actually a very good one.
Part 4... It definitely went longer than planned
S. Berry - I think he's a sneaky good option, to be fair probably more of a draft league guy as his limitations I think cap him a bit below the level I'd want but I do think he's capable of a 105 type season. Crouch/Sloane issues are very real but he was brilliant last year and like a lot of the young guys all the things he really needs to improve are mostly extra preseasons, unlike a few of the others though disposal is an issue for him and that one is why I think he's capped unless he can fix it.
Newcombe - Another sneaky good option. He's their clear #1 midfielder returning this season and he does a bit of everything. I'd actually liken him a fair bit to Steele as a player, this is going to seem absurd but I don't see any reason he can't push towards 120 this year. He's one of those excellent kicks who kicks badly, 3rd year and he should be more composed and make better decisions which is his issue rather than technical limitations, imo. Towards the end of last year he added mor spread and upped his possession levels but it came at a bit of a sacrifice on his grunt work. Realistically he's a guy who should be trying to get about 28 touches, 5-6 marks, 7-8 tackles and kick a goal a game this year, imo, fwiw those are basically Steele numbers. I'm not confident enough in their setup with so many changes to actually go for him, but if someone did it's the kind of pick that deserves kudos even if it doesn't end up working because all the pieces of the puzzle are ready to go.
Whitfield - I just want to thank CD for giving him MID only and removing any inclination to ride this disaster again. Good riddance. Please quote this to me when he averages 110 and gets DPP at round 6 and I think about boarding the train to nowhereville.
Shuey - Too much durability risk to go further.
De Goey - I'll watch but I can't justify the risk, even if I think he's got the potential to go huge, perhaps similar to Whitfield I should be grateful he's not tempting me in the forwards for once!
Dangerfield - I mean it's an interesting price point, isn't it. I'm backing that they manage him through the season again, so putting a strike through him but wouldn't shock me if he has a huge season. Durability another issue these days.
Billings - I'd need to see something special in the preseason and I might be the last person on Earth who still rates him but a new coach brings hope he can get out of the hellish positions that Ratten put him in the last few years. I still think he's an elite inside midfielder who has been masquerading as a winger/forward pocket under a coach who seemed to think butchering the ball was a core skill to play midfield for him. There's not a single way anyone can convince me that Dunstan, Ross, Crouch, Byrnes, Jones, Windhager, Owens, Wood, Hanners, Bytel, Clark or anyone not named Steele, Gresham or Sinclair should have had more CBA than him over the last two years. Honestly, he got treated like he cheated on Ratten's daughter with his wife... I don't know what I expect from Ross to be honest and Billings might be so broken from playing out of position this long it's over but I'll never give it up
Hunter - I can't see the ceiling to justify it and I still think his covid season was among the biggest outliers of them all with the system not being able to correct but you have to mention a guy priced at 71 with a 115 in his history.
Holmes - We've entered that weird window where he's cheap enough to work without being a keeper, I want to see the position personally and I think it might still be too much of a jump, I do rate him though.
Z. Jones - Same as Holmes, with history of hitting the level. I think there's far better options at this price in other positions though.
J. Ward - I love him but probably a year too early if not two or three.
Menegola - He's probably done but Selwood is an opening and he's got some really strong scoring history. So I'll watchlist him.
Ash - Used almost exclusively as a tagger but has shown some really piglet traits when actually let to run and he's got elite speed and strong kicking to be able to score from it if he does find the pill. When I look at their team and remove Greene from the mix, he's the 4th midfielder that keeps surfacing. Again, better options but could make a big jump and I think a really solid draft league option if it did shape out that way.
Hopper - Discussed already in this thread but I like the pick. Only needs 95 to work well and while I'd rather target this price range in other positions where keeper levels are much more attainable, I'd have said after his 97 season he was poised to push towards the 110 region, outside of horrific kicking he does everything you could want SC wise. Always reminded my of Wines and I think he can absolutely push towards his scoring history which would make him a rock solid choice. I get the Richmond concerns but I think they're overplayed to an extent, Prestia when fit has been a solid 100+ guy, Cotchin has had multiple 100+ seasons including a 116 and Martin likewise with a 120, I don't think he's at the latter two's level but he's a more natural SCer than Prestia and I think he should score. To be fair, GWS have also historically not been great for midfielders (different reasons but still) and he pushed the level he needs both the previous two seasons when he was fit. There's enough M8 potential capping very solid cash cow status to justify this pick.
Sheed - I feel less certain here. I don't think he's got the M8 potential, albeit Redden out certainly helps as does everyone else getting old. Durability had been good prior to last year but his prior two years were not good enough at his price so you're needing improvement. Eagles could go two ways here and prioritise the young talent or the old guys, one is obviously good for him and one is terrible. I know what I'd do and Sheed is the most "average" of the old guys whilst also being a sufficiently mediocre HFF to justify playing him there. I don't love this pick but let's see what the preseason throws out positionally for him.
Worpel - Another I've covered. Another with a season good enough to justify picking him but that was 4 years ago and Mitchell seemed to view him similarly to me last year. He's utterly one dimensional as a player and I think they've got other guys who can give them 85% of what he does in that one dimension while providing other things. Can't play forward effectively, which to me is the thing he needs to do if he wants to last much longer because you can't carry midfielders that can't kick, offer nothing around the ground outside stoppages and can't play other positions. Basically he needs to add more clubs to his bag and the problem is that I'm not sure he can score well enough even if he does find those clubs because he's so one tracked in his scoring, he tackles it if it moves and goes 110% at every contested ball and hopes his rush handballs/kicks find a teammate when he wins it. This is a very interesting one for Mitchell because he is their best at doing that but I'd be going with Wingard, Day, Bramble, Newcombe, Amon, Ward and Stephens ahead of him personally. Watch list though, if he does come out ahead of that group for the #1 bull role, he's very relevant.
Culley - Definitely on my watch list. From what I saw of him I think he should be in their first midfield group and that he can push 100 region. Only needs an 85 average from his price range to push the 200k cash generation and I think that's a very reasonable expectation. His tackling and contested skills both make him capable of huge spike games as well, imo. I'll be watching him super closely in preseason. Again, I'd rather this price range in other positions but I don't see our Coniglio, Ziebell or Brodie keeper types this year yet at those spots so it's more about taking the best cash generators. I think he's close enough to rookie priced to strongly consider.
C. Stephens - I'll be watching, I know the Cats liked him a lot, I think he's a very reasonable pickup and there's definitely midfield minutes at the Hawks to be had. Like Culley, I'd be looking at him as a rookie option. As always I'd prefer the 120k guy if they're there but it's good to have the contingency options ready.
Callaghan - As above, pretty sure he can be a special player and the rapid midfield openings sure don't hurt. Watchlist.
Sharp - Again, I've got no idea what went wrong last year, he looked set to go boom heading into last season and it was more puff of dust than anything. He's genuinely rookie priced so I'll be watching, I considered him at 350k last year and drafted him in all my draft leagues, I don't do that for guys I didn't see something pretty awesome from the year before. If he's not there it's an easy decision but I'm watching.
S. Berry - I think he's a sneaky good option, to be fair probably more of a draft league guy as his limitations I think cap him a bit below the level I'd want but I do think he's capable of a 105 type season. Crouch/Sloane issues are very real but he was brilliant last year and like a lot of the young guys all the things he really needs to improve are mostly extra preseasons, unlike a few of the others though disposal is an issue for him and that one is why I think he's capped unless he can fix it.
Newcombe - Another sneaky good option. He's their clear #1 midfielder returning this season and he does a bit of everything. I'd actually liken him a fair bit to Steele as a player, this is going to seem absurd but I don't see any reason he can't push towards 120 this year. He's one of those excellent kicks who kicks badly, 3rd year and he should be more composed and make better decisions which is his issue rather than technical limitations, imo. Towards the end of last year he added mor spread and upped his possession levels but it came at a bit of a sacrifice on his grunt work. Realistically he's a guy who should be trying to get about 28 touches, 5-6 marks, 7-8 tackles and kick a goal a game this year, imo, fwiw those are basically Steele numbers. I'm not confident enough in their setup with so many changes to actually go for him, but if someone did it's the kind of pick that deserves kudos even if it doesn't end up working because all the pieces of the puzzle are ready to go.
Whitfield - I just want to thank CD for giving him MID only and removing any inclination to ride this disaster again. Good riddance
. Please quote this to me when he averages 110 and gets DPP at round 6 and I think about boarding the train to nowhereville.Shuey - Too much durability risk to go further.
De Goey - I'll watch but I can't justify the risk, even if I think he's got the potential to go huge, perhaps similar to Whitfield I should be grateful he's not tempting me in the forwards for once!
Dangerfield - I mean it's an interesting price point, isn't it. I'm backing that they manage him through the season again, so putting a strike through him but wouldn't shock me if he has a huge season. Durability another issue these days.
Billings - I'd need to see something special in the preseason and I might be the last person on Earth who still rates him but a new coach brings hope he can get out of the hellish positions that Ratten put him in the last few years. I still think he's an elite inside midfielder who has been masquerading as a winger/forward pocket under a coach who seemed to think butchering the ball was a core skill to play midfield for him. There's not a single way anyone can convince me that Dunstan, Ross, Crouch, Byrnes, Jones, Windhager, Owens, Wood, Hanners, Bytel, Clark or anyone not named Steele, Gresham or Sinclair should have had more CBA than him over the last two years. Honestly, he got treated like he cheated on Ratten's daughter with his wife... I don't know what I expect from Ross to be honest and Billings might be so broken from playing out of position this long it's over but I'll never give it up
Hunter - I can't see the ceiling to justify it and I still think his covid season was among the biggest outliers of them all with the system not being able to correct but you have to mention a guy priced at 71 with a 115 in his history.
Holmes - We've entered that weird window where he's cheap enough to work without being a keeper, I want to see the position personally and I think it might still be too much of a jump, I do rate him though.
Z. Jones - Same as Holmes, with history of hitting the level. I think there's far better options at this price in other positions though.
J. Ward - I love him but probably a year too early if not two or three.
Menegola - He's probably done but Selwood is an opening and he's got some really strong scoring history. So I'll watchlist him.
Ash - Used almost exclusively as a tagger but has shown some really piglet traits when actually let to run and he's got elite speed and strong kicking to be able to score from it if he does find the pill. When I look at their team and remove Greene from the mix, he's the 4th midfielder that keeps surfacing. Again, better options but could make a big jump and I think a really solid draft league option if it did shape out that way.
Hopper - Discussed already in this thread but I like the pick. Only needs 95 to work well and while I'd rather target this price range in other positions where keeper levels are much more attainable, I'd have said after his 97 season he was poised to push towards the 110 region, outside of horrific kicking he does everything you could want SC wise. Always reminded my of Wines and I think he can absolutely push towards his scoring history which would make him a rock solid choice. I get the Richmond concerns but I think they're overplayed to an extent, Prestia when fit has been a solid 100+ guy, Cotchin has had multiple 100+ seasons including a 116 and Martin likewise with a 120, I don't think he's at the latter two's level but he's a more natural SCer than Prestia and I think he should score. To be fair, GWS have also historically not been great for midfielders (different reasons but still) and he pushed the level he needs both the previous two seasons when he was fit. There's enough M8 potential capping very solid cash cow status to justify this pick.
Sheed - I feel less certain here. I don't think he's got the M8 potential, albeit Redden out certainly helps as does everyone else getting old. Durability had been good prior to last year but his prior two years were not good enough at his price so you're needing improvement. Eagles could go two ways here and prioritise the young talent or the old guys, one is obviously good for him and one is terrible. I know what I'd do and Sheed is the most "average" of the old guys whilst also being a sufficiently mediocre HFF to justify playing him there. I don't love this pick but let's see what the preseason throws out positionally for him.
Worpel - Another I've covered. Another with a season good enough to justify picking him but that was 4 years ago and Mitchell seemed to view him similarly to me last year. He's utterly one dimensional as a player and I think they've got other guys who can give them 85% of what he does in that one dimension while providing other things. Can't play forward effectively, which to me is the thing he needs to do if he wants to last much longer because you can't carry midfielders that can't kick, offer nothing around the ground outside stoppages and can't play other positions. Basically he needs to add more clubs to his bag and the problem is that I'm not sure he can score well enough even if he does find those clubs because he's so one tracked in his scoring, he tackles it if it moves and goes 110% at every contested ball and hopes his rush handballs/kicks find a teammate when he wins it. This is a very interesting one for Mitchell because he is their best at doing that but I'd be going with Wingard, Day, Bramble, Newcombe, Amon, Ward and Stephens ahead of him personally. Watch list though, if he does come out ahead of that group for the #1 bull role, he's very relevant.
Culley - Definitely on my watch list. From what I saw of him I think he should be in their first midfield group and that he can push 100 region. Only needs an 85 average from his price range to push the 200k cash generation and I think that's a very reasonable expectation. His tackling and contested skills both make him capable of huge spike games as well, imo. I'll be watching him super closely in preseason. Again, I'd rather this price range in other positions but I don't see our Coniglio, Ziebell or Brodie keeper types this year yet at those spots so it's more about taking the best cash generators. I think he's close enough to rookie priced to strongly consider.
C. Stephens - I'll be watching, I know the Cats liked him a lot, I think he's a very reasonable pickup and there's definitely midfield minutes at the Hawks to be had. Like Culley, I'd be looking at him as a rookie option. As always I'd prefer the 120k guy if they're there but it's good to have the contingency options ready.
Callaghan - As above, pretty sure he can be a special player and the rapid midfield openings sure don't hurt. Watchlist.
Sharp - Again, I've got no idea what went wrong last year, he looked set to go boom heading into last season and it was more puff of dust than anything. He's genuinely rookie priced so I'll be watching, I considered him at 350k last year and drafted him in all my draft leagues, I don't do that for guys I didn't see something pretty awesome from the year before. If he's not there it's an easy decision but I'm watching.
Haha, did you read what I wrote. I have zero faith in anything to do with that side
I just don't think he's worth the risk in this midfield group personally but logic says the Giants should really just play Greene, Green, Kelly and Coniglio to me. 2 of them are endurance beasts, Coniglio isn't bad and Green is an absolute clearance monster to make up for not being an endurance beast but I'll be shocked if Greene actually plays midfield, I'd bet it will be Ward instead, so basically reduce your forward supply significantly to please a guy who really should have retired last year.
There's a huge gap in talent from their top 4 to their 5th, which is either Ward or Ash at this point.
If I was them it would be easy. It would be Greene/Coniglio should play maximum TOG rotating forward/midfield, Kelly however high TOG he can play which should be ~90%, Green however high he can play with Greene/Coniglio picking up his slack. Whitfield and Perryman on the wings. Preuss is clearly their best ruck and should be #1, I wouldn't be going a 2nd ruck personally for them, just ruck Ward who should play forward when not rucking. That 4 matches just about anyone in the league, imo.
I must add, that's exactly what I would have done last year and probably the year before also (Greene not ready yet then so go Taranto/Hopper) and they've never done it.
Trying to apply logic, sense or any kind of rationale to GWS is a fool's errand. Just let Kelly go and if he hits 125 this year just nod to yourself knowing you were right all these years and Cameron is complete twit and let that be the win. I'm pretty sure he's torched me for half a decade now so I'll be there nodding along as a tear rolls down my face also...
I just don't think he's worth the risk in this midfield group personally but logic says the Giants should really just play Greene, Green, Kelly and Coniglio to me. 2 of them are endurance beasts, Coniglio isn't bad and Green is an absolute clearance monster to make up for not being an endurance beast but I'll be shocked if Greene actually plays midfield, I'd bet it will be Ward instead, so basically reduce your forward supply significantly to please a guy who really should have retired last year.
There's a huge gap in talent from their top 4 to their 5th, which is either Ward or Ash at this point.
If I was them it would be easy. It would be Greene/Coniglio should play maximum TOG rotating forward/midfield, Kelly however high TOG he can play which should be ~90%, Green however high he can play with Greene/Coniglio picking up his slack. Whitfield and Perryman on the wings. Preuss is clearly their best ruck and should be #1, I wouldn't be going a 2nd ruck personally for them, just ruck Ward who should play forward when not rucking. That 4 matches just about anyone in the league, imo.
I must add, that's exactly what I would have done last year and probably the year before also (Greene not ready yet then so go Taranto/Hopper) and they've never done it.
Trying to apply logic, sense or any kind of rationale to GWS is a fool's errand. Just let Kelly go and if he hits 125 this year just nod to yourself knowing you were right all these years and Cameron is complete twit and let that be the win. I'm pretty sure he's torched me for half a decade now so I'll be there nodding along as a tear rolls down my face also...
Kelly and Guthrie have been unmoved in my side for the last month, wogi im unsure whether your write up reaffirms my decision or makes me ask myself whether one day I won't put myself through this pain
I think both have very strong cases. I'd only go both if you're very high on Kelly because I think Guthrie is an M8 target so you need Kelly to be a firm M6+ type target. Worst possible scenario with those two is having to sideways trade them out.
Haha, glad to have increased your uncertainty
I think both have very strong cases. I'd only go both if you're very high on Kelly because I think Guthrie is an M8 target so you need Kelly to be a firm M6+ type target. Worst possible scenario with those two is having to sideways trade them out.
I think both have very strong cases. I'd only go both if you're very high on Kelly because I think Guthrie is an M8 target so you need Kelly to be a firm M6+ type target. Worst possible scenario with those two is having to sideways trade them out.
Just looking at Laird's scores from last season :-
In his first game of the season in round 3 he scored 93 - coming back earlier than expected after a broken hand.
In 18 of the next 19 games he scored 100+ , seven in excess of 140 The 1 time he went under 100 was 97 so very close anyway.
He ranked first in the league for disposals, second for tackles, third for ground balls, fourth for clearances.
For whatever reason, he never seems to get a hard tag or maybe his style is such that coaches don't think he can be effectively tagged. Dawson is the crow teams want to shutdown with his elite/damaging kicks so guessing teams are loathe to deploy 2 taggers - moving too far away from the way they want to play.
29 years old so still in his prime, great reports on his preseason so far, doesn't get a hard tag.... hard to see him not going 120+ again tbh
Then I looked at his fixtures - 4 of his first 5 at home including Richmond in round 2 which give up big numbers to elite mids from opposing teams/don't tag under Hardwick.
As @wogitalia pointed out, his fixture works out well for VC/Capt purposes. In the first 6 rounds his draw works out well with Oliver for example if going for those 2 as your preferred VC/Capt combo.
703K is a lot to pay but for the above reasons I am very keen to get him in...only 10% ownership currently further adds to his appeal
In his first game of the season in round 3 he scored 93 - coming back earlier than expected after a broken hand.
In 18 of the next 19 games he scored 100+ , seven in excess of 140
The 1 time he went under 100 was 97 so very close anyway.He ranked first in the league for disposals, second for tackles, third for ground balls, fourth for clearances.
For whatever reason, he never seems to get a hard tag or maybe his style is such that coaches don't think he can be effectively tagged. Dawson is the crow teams want to shutdown with his elite/damaging kicks so guessing teams are loathe to deploy 2 taggers - moving too far away from the way they want to play.
29 years old so still in his prime, great reports on his preseason so far, doesn't get a hard tag.... hard to see him not going 120+ again tbh
Then I looked at his fixtures - 4 of his first 5 at home including Richmond in round 2 which give up big numbers to elite mids from opposing teams/don't tag under Hardwick.
As @wogitalia pointed out, his fixture works out well for VC/Capt purposes. In the first 6 rounds his draw works out well with Oliver for example if going for those 2 as your preferred VC/Capt combo.
703K is a lot to pay but for the above reasons I am very keen to get him in...only 10% ownership currently further adds to his appeal