Position 2023: Ruck Discussion
- Thread starter KLo30
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I’m with you on this one. I think Draper makes sense from the “he should improve because he has the raw tools” perspective, but I think he falls down because he’s just actually not a great footballer.
I can make a case for Draper on paper, but then I watch him play and I cant go through with it. He gets beaten up in the ruck too easily, and has games where he can’t get near it. Most rucks have a high ceiling as they are near the ball so much and they can get lucky with HTAs in some games, but to be elite you really need to cut the poor games out.
My best guess is his upside is a soft breakout (100 ave) where he’s not in the best 6 rucks but improves and shows real promise, or he stays the same and we realise his upside is Tom Hickey (career 70-90 player with some fluctuations).
I can make a case for Draper on paper, but then I watch him play and I cant go through with it. He gets beaten up in the ruck too easily, and has games where he can’t get near it. Most rucks have a high ceiling as they are near the ball so much and they can get lucky with HTAs in some games, but to be elite you really need to cut the poor games out.
My best guess is his upside is a soft breakout (100 ave) where he’s not in the best 6 rucks but improves and shows real promise, or he stays the same and we realise his upside is Tom Hickey (career 70-90 player with some fluctuations).
I am in sponge mode at the moment, trying to soak up all the good info from this Forum, it will take a while.
I decided to start with the Rucks, to pick a couple of 'set and forget' players, then move on. Hmmm, no 'set and forgets'.
From what I have read so far, 27yo Marshall looks like my first choice, because he won't have to share his ruck duties with Ryder, good chance he will be the solo ruckman. It doesn't make sense to me to put your best Ruckman to play forward. Played 21 games last year, him getting injured is an unknown. Good chance he makes a profit before getting injured to trade out.
I decided to start with the Rucks, to pick a couple of 'set and forget' players, then move on. Hmmm, no 'set and forgets'.
From what I have read so far, 27yo Marshall looks like my first choice, because he won't have to share his ruck duties with Ryder, good chance he will be the solo ruckman. It doesn't make sense to me to put your best Ruckman to play forward. Played 21 games last year, him getting injured is an unknown. Good chance he makes a profit before getting injured to trade out.
Ryder wasn't mentioned in the previous post, it was the exact same logic as why people picked him last year, that he'd end up the #1 ruck and Ryder wouldn't play et al.
I love Marshall and I do think he's the best value pick of the potential studs but he's got issues and definitely could fail. I don't think he's a no brainer at all. He's never proven he can go 110+ for a full season. In a field that includes 5 guys that have gone 115+, you're banking on him both playing 23 (has never even managed 22) and outproducing his best season or you're banking on no one else getting to the 115+ level.
I actually think that both are reasonable arguments and perhaps it's just the scorch marks from the ruck position over the last two seasons but I'd personally rather an option that lets me see if there are any 115+ guys and then grab them than trying to pick them.
I can make the case for all of Gawn, Witts, English, Darcy, ROB, NicNat, Goldy, Grundy, Marshall, Jackson, Preuss and OMc going 115+ this year without really feeling like I'm stretching. My big problem is that all of them hinge on a pretty huge IF that I have no certainty or ability to project.
Rucks are that rare position where I actually really like the group but when you only get to pick two there's no room for mistakes, I dare say the rucks will be the single most important position this year as there are genuinely 10 guys that can have a very real case made for them and people will be picking two and the likelihood is that only 2 or 3 of those 10 will succeed, especially given the durability issues that most of them have. Doesn't look like there'll be a rookie and doesn't look like there's very much value lying around either.
The hard part is the ruck share dents him. He averaged 79 in the 9 games as a sole ruck and 68 in the 13 he shared. That sole goes up to 85 if you remove the anomalous 34 game where he actually had a very good DT game and obviously just cooked the crap out of his SC (dare say a lot of hitouts sharked which is largely luck), obviously that games possible again but it's one of the few bad ratios he had. He also had two games with Phillips where Phillips only played ~50% of the game and he scored well that inflate the ruck share number a bit.
I wouldn't go near him if I sniff a ruck share situation, fwiw, but I think they've recruited to not be playing two rucks and a big part of it would also be Draper getting to the fitness standard to allow it.
He's far from a lock but he's a guy I'll watch. I do agree the reading the game is a factor, it's why I can't see him being able to go 115+ like his athletic profile should support, he just doesn't position behind the ball or ahead of the ball well, he's going to be a pretty pure stoppage scorer unless that changes. If he did show that ability, and both those things can also be fitness related as you protect your tank, that would be a game changer and make me a lot more certain on the pick.
He's highly speculative but he's probably got the easiest path to making cash of any of the ruck options right now and it's more a "I have no idea on the field" type of play, it's an attempt at generating what cash and value you can from a position and avoiding disaster play, not a good play but if I can sidestep using a dozen trades in the rucks by starting a Draper type, I will
You didn't mention Ryder at all and many picked him thinking he'd be the #1 anyway and was primed for a huge breakout after being underpriced from the previous season. If they played Campbell he could be the same issue as Ryder as well.
Again, it's not that I don't like Marshall, I definitely do, but let's not pretend he doesn't bring a lot of uncertainty as a selection. He's never managed 22 games and now has to play 23, he get's dinged up in games constantly and has a long list of serious injuries that have recurrence issues, he's never scored at 115+ which could quite easily be the threshold this year. The fact I think he's probably the best option says a lot about how uncertain I am on the rucks.
He definitely might be the right choice this year but anyone saying he's a lock or obvious choice is either ignoring the rest of the field or crazy!
For what it's worth, he's in a very similar position to where Grundy was entering last year who was a "lock" for most and Grundy had a much more bankable history behind him, still failed miserably!
Personally, I want to try and tread water in the rucks, measure twice and cut once. They've genuinely derailed back to back seasons for me and every good season I've had included ruck harmony so I could focus on other areas.
I love Marshall and I do think he's the best value pick of the potential studs but he's got issues and definitely could fail. I don't think he's a no brainer at all. He's never proven he can go 110+ for a full season. In a field that includes 5 guys that have gone 115+, you're banking on him both playing 23 (has never even managed 22) and outproducing his best season or you're banking on no one else getting to the 115+ level.
I actually think that both are reasonable arguments and perhaps it's just the scorch marks from the ruck position over the last two seasons but I'd personally rather an option that lets me see if there are any 115+ guys and then grab them than trying to pick them.
I can make the case for all of Gawn, Witts, English, Darcy, ROB, NicNat, Goldy, Grundy, Marshall, Jackson, Preuss and OMc going 115+ this year without really feeling like I'm stretching. My big problem is that all of them hinge on a pretty huge IF that I have no certainty or ability to project.
Rucks are that rare position where I actually really like the group but when you only get to pick two there's no room for mistakes, I dare say the rucks will be the single most important position this year as there are genuinely 10 guys that can have a very real case made for them and people will be picking two and the likelihood is that only 2 or 3 of those 10 will succeed, especially given the durability issues that most of them have. Doesn't look like there'll be a rookie and doesn't look like there's very much value lying around either.
The hard part is the ruck share dents him. He averaged 79 in the 9 games as a sole ruck and 68 in the 13 he shared. That sole goes up to 85 if you remove the anomalous 34 game where he actually had a very good DT game and obviously just cooked the crap out of his SC (dare say a lot of hitouts sharked which is largely luck), obviously that games possible again but it's one of the few bad ratios he had. He also had two games with Phillips where Phillips only played ~50% of the game and he scored well that inflate the ruck share number a bit.
I wouldn't go near him if I sniff a ruck share situation, fwiw, but I think they've recruited to not be playing two rucks and a big part of it would also be Draper getting to the fitness standard to allow it.
He's far from a lock but he's a guy I'll watch. I do agree the reading the game is a factor, it's why I can't see him being able to go 115+ like his athletic profile should support, he just doesn't position behind the ball or ahead of the ball well, he's going to be a pretty pure stoppage scorer unless that changes. If he did show that ability, and both those things can also be fitness related as you protect your tank, that would be a game changer and make me a lot more certain on the pick.
He's highly speculative but he's probably got the easiest path to making cash of any of the ruck options right now and it's more a "I have no idea on the field" type of play, it's an attempt at generating what cash and value you can from a position and avoiding disaster play, not a good play but if I can sidestep using a dozen trades in the rucks by starting a Draper type, I will
You didn't mention Ryder at all and many picked him thinking he'd be the #1 anyway and was primed for a huge breakout after being underpriced from the previous season. If they played Campbell he could be the same issue as Ryder as well.
Again, it's not that I don't like Marshall, I definitely do, but let's not pretend he doesn't bring a lot of uncertainty as a selection. He's never managed 22 games and now has to play 23, he get's dinged up in games constantly and has a long list of serious injuries that have recurrence issues, he's never scored at 115+ which could quite easily be the threshold this year. The fact I think he's probably the best option says a lot about how uncertain I am on the rucks.
He definitely might be the right choice this year but anyone saying he's a lock or obvious choice is either ignoring the rest of the field or crazy!
For what it's worth, he's in a very similar position to where Grundy was entering last year who was a "lock" for most and Grundy had a much more bankable history behind him, still failed miserably!
Personally, I want to try and tread water in the rucks, measure twice and cut once. They've genuinely derailed back to back seasons for me and every good season I've had included ruck harmony so I could focus on other areas.
Ryder wasn't mentioned in the previous post, it was the exact same logic as why people picked him last year, that he'd end up the #1 ruck and Ryder wouldn't play et al.
I love Marshall and I do think he's the best value pick of the potential studs but he's got issues and definitely could fail. I don't think he's a no brainer at all. He's never proven he can go 110+ for a full season. In a field that includes 5 guys that have gone 115+, you're banking on him both playing 23 (has never even managed 22) and outproducing his best season or you're banking on no one else getting to the 115+ level.
I actually think that both are reasonable arguments and perhaps it's just the scorch marks from the ruck position over the last two seasons but I'd personally rather an option that lets me see if there are any 115+ guys and then grab them than trying to pick them.
I can make the case for all of Gawn, Witts, English, Darcy, ROB, NicNat, Goldy, Grundy, Marshall, Jackson, Preuss and OMc going 115+ this year without really feeling like I'm stretching. My big problem is that all of them hinge on a pretty huge IF that I have no certainty or ability to project.
Rucks are that rare position where I actually really like the group but when you only get to pick two there's no room for mistakes, I dare say the rucks will be the single most important position this year as there are genuinely 10 guys that can have a very real case made for them and people will be picking two and the likelihood is that only 2 or 3 of those 10 will succeed, especially given the durability issues that most of them have. Doesn't look like there'll be a rookie and doesn't look like there's very much value lying around either.
The hard part is the ruck share dents him. He averaged 79 in the 9 games as a sole ruck and 68 in the 13 he shared. That sole goes up to 85 if you remove the anomalous 34 game where he actually had a very good DT game and obviously just cooked the crap out of his SC (dare say a lot of hitouts sharked which is largely luck), obviously that games possible again but it's one of the few bad ratios he had. He also had two games with Phillips where Phillips only played ~50% of the game and he scored well that inflate the ruck share number a bit.
I wouldn't go near him if I sniff a ruck share situation, fwiw, but I think they've recruited to not be playing two rucks and a big part of it would also be Draper getting to the fitness standard to allow it.
He's far from a lock but he's a guy I'll watch. I do agree the reading the game is a factor, it's why I can't see him being able to go 115+ like his athletic profile should support, he just doesn't position behind the ball or ahead of the ball well, he's going to be a pretty pure stoppage scorer unless that changes. If he did show that ability, and both those things can also be fitness related as you protect your tank, that would be a game changer and make me a lot more certain on the pick.
He's highly speculative but he's probably got the easiest path to making cash of any of the ruck options right now and it's more a "I have no idea on the field" type of play, it's an attempt at generating what cash and value you can from a position and avoiding disaster play, not a good play but if I can sidestep using a dozen trades in the rucks by starting a Draper type, I will
You didn't mention Ryder at all and many picked him thinking he'd be the #1 anyway and was primed for a huge breakout after being underpriced from the previous season. If they played Campbell he could be the same issue as Ryder as well.
Again, it's not that I don't like Marshall, I definitely do, but let's not pretend he doesn't bring a lot of uncertainty as a selection. He's never managed 22 games and now has to play 23, he get's dinged up in games constantly and has a long list of serious injuries that have recurrence issues, he's never scored at 115+ which could quite easily be the threshold this year. The fact I think he's probably the best option says a lot about how uncertain I am on the rucks.
He definitely might be the right choice this year but anyone saying he's a lock or obvious choice is either ignoring the rest of the field or crazy!
For what it's worth, he's in a very similar position to where Grundy was entering last year who was a "lock" for most and Grundy had a much more bankable history behind him, still failed miserably!
Personally, I want to try and tread water in the rucks, measure twice and cut once. They've genuinely derailed back to back seasons for me and every good season I've had included ruck harmony so I could focus on other areas.
I love Marshall and I do think he's the best value pick of the potential studs but he's got issues and definitely could fail. I don't think he's a no brainer at all. He's never proven he can go 110+ for a full season. In a field that includes 5 guys that have gone 115+, you're banking on him both playing 23 (has never even managed 22) and outproducing his best season or you're banking on no one else getting to the 115+ level.
I actually think that both are reasonable arguments and perhaps it's just the scorch marks from the ruck position over the last two seasons but I'd personally rather an option that lets me see if there are any 115+ guys and then grab them than trying to pick them.
I can make the case for all of Gawn, Witts, English, Darcy, ROB, NicNat, Goldy, Grundy, Marshall, Jackson, Preuss and OMc going 115+ this year without really feeling like I'm stretching. My big problem is that all of them hinge on a pretty huge IF that I have no certainty or ability to project.
Rucks are that rare position where I actually really like the group but when you only get to pick two there's no room for mistakes, I dare say the rucks will be the single most important position this year as there are genuinely 10 guys that can have a very real case made for them and people will be picking two and the likelihood is that only 2 or 3 of those 10 will succeed, especially given the durability issues that most of them have. Doesn't look like there'll be a rookie and doesn't look like there's very much value lying around either.
The hard part is the ruck share dents him. He averaged 79 in the 9 games as a sole ruck and 68 in the 13 he shared. That sole goes up to 85 if you remove the anomalous 34 game where he actually had a very good DT game and obviously just cooked the crap out of his SC (dare say a lot of hitouts sharked which is largely luck), obviously that games possible again but it's one of the few bad ratios he had. He also had two games with Phillips where Phillips only played ~50% of the game and he scored well that inflate the ruck share number a bit.
I wouldn't go near him if I sniff a ruck share situation, fwiw, but I think they've recruited to not be playing two rucks and a big part of it would also be Draper getting to the fitness standard to allow it.
He's far from a lock but he's a guy I'll watch. I do agree the reading the game is a factor, it's why I can't see him being able to go 115+ like his athletic profile should support, he just doesn't position behind the ball or ahead of the ball well, he's going to be a pretty pure stoppage scorer unless that changes. If he did show that ability, and both those things can also be fitness related as you protect your tank, that would be a game changer and make me a lot more certain on the pick.
He's highly speculative but he's probably got the easiest path to making cash of any of the ruck options right now and it's more a "I have no idea on the field" type of play, it's an attempt at generating what cash and value you can from a position and avoiding disaster play, not a good play but if I can sidestep using a dozen trades in the rucks by starting a Draper type, I will
You didn't mention Ryder at all and many picked him thinking he'd be the #1 anyway and was primed for a huge breakout after being underpriced from the previous season. If they played Campbell he could be the same issue as Ryder as well.
Again, it's not that I don't like Marshall, I definitely do, but let's not pretend he doesn't bring a lot of uncertainty as a selection. He's never managed 22 games and now has to play 23, he get's dinged up in games constantly and has a long list of serious injuries that have recurrence issues, he's never scored at 115+ which could quite easily be the threshold this year. The fact I think he's probably the best option says a lot about how uncertain I am on the rucks.
He definitely might be the right choice this year but anyone saying he's a lock or obvious choice is either ignoring the rest of the field or crazy!
For what it's worth, he's in a very similar position to where Grundy was entering last year who was a "lock" for most and Grundy had a much more bankable history behind him, still failed miserably!
Personally, I want to try and tread water in the rucks, measure twice and cut once. They've genuinely derailed back to back seasons for me and every good season I've had included ruck harmony so I could focus on other areas.
Because your comment applied equally to last year and it blew up completely, was more to question the logic that he is a no brainer if the exact same thing you said applied last year to him and it provenly failed. I could easily have used Grundy as my example but didn't seem necessary.
Basically I'd be questioning how you've got to "no brainer" if you've also included the words injury history as the very next thing and then potential as the #1 selling point.
Grundy an even better example, he had proven scoring history as a top two and still failed miserably because that injury history thing matters a lot.
Marshall is a solid option but you should definitely not be ignoring all the other options or his issues. Basically, he's not a no brainer and if you've got to that level on him, I'd be questioning how and why and my original response was simply to trigger that.
Basically I'd be questioning how you've got to "no brainer" if you've also included the words injury history as the very next thing and then potential as the #1 selling point.
Grundy an even better example, he had proven scoring history as a top two and still failed miserably because that injury history thing matters a lot.
Marshall is a solid option but you should definitely not be ignoring all the other options or his issues. Basically, he's not a no brainer and if you've got to that level on him, I'd be questioning how and why and my original response was simply to trigger that.
Looking at Ratugolea as a FWD bench option
Do those with an eye on the cattery see him getting more consistent game time?
Would be handy as an emergency ruck option for a week or 2 if he was getting regular games.
Do those with an eye on the cattery see him getting more consistent game time?
Would be handy as an emergency ruck option for a week or 2 if he was getting regular games.
I'd be surprised if he plays 10 more games for the club full stop to be honest.
Yeah Rat seems like that perfect "if **** hits the fan" player. He can ruck, poorly, play forward, even worse and allegedly now can play in defense (probably the best as much easier position) but I just can't see how or why he'd play unless there's an emergency, really they've already got cover for each of those spots, so he's kind of the 2nd cover option to all of them.
His ability to play defence is severely overrated, played one game against West Coasts rabble where the ball hardly went down there (gave up 27 inside 50s for the whole game) and his direct opponent still kicked goals on him the rest is a handful of games against VFL journeymen who he really should be beating, the two games SDK missed Blicavs played defence, hell get a game or two when they manage for the sake of managing but hes a mile off the best 22, dont think he's best 30 tbh would be surprised if he wasnt low key filthy that the trade request was blocked.
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