Position 2023: Forwards Discussion
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When he's injured in the preseason?
Honestly, he averaged 115+ (was more like 120) when he last played as a pure midfielder and looks set to do that this year. He managed to play a full season and then goes to the club with the best medical staff in the league so even his biggest negative has firmed up this year.
Basically you're betting on an injury. Not often you have a guy at 108 who looks to be genuinely underpriced with the potential to average 120.
I just don't see the potential reward of fading him.
1. Injury - It's a win but if he's been averaging 120 until the injury, he might have even made cash and you've lost the points. Best case here is an early injury, early in a game that tanks price but then everyone just jumps on the best option with more information of who it is, quite possible you end up a trade ahead and this is your best case.
2. Averages 100ish - Still a keeper, you get him cheaper but you're only ahead if your alternative did better.
3. Averages 120 - Epic fail.
4. Averages 110 - You better have done well on the alternative because that's still a strong pick.
I guess there's a 90 type average argument that could be made but I'm not making it for a guy who has averaged 100+ in bit part roles the past 3 years, that's someone else's task.
Unless you genuinely think he's going to average low 90s or worse then injury is your only genuine win to fading.
I say this as probably his biggest doubter over the past two seasons as a starting pick but this year is just different, all of strengths are highlighted now, the only weakness he's still got is durability and even that has weakened in the past 12 months.
Just lock him in and look for an edge in the other 29 spots
Honestly, he averaged 115+ (was more like 120) when he last played as a pure midfielder and looks set to do that this year. He managed to play a full season and then goes to the club with the best medical staff in the league so even his biggest negative has firmed up this year.
Basically you're betting on an injury. Not often you have a guy at 108 who looks to be genuinely underpriced with the potential to average 120.
I just don't see the potential reward of fading him.
1. Injury - It's a win but if he's been averaging 120 until the injury, he might have even made cash and you've lost the points. Best case here is an early injury, early in a game that tanks price but then everyone just jumps on the best option with more information of who it is, quite possible you end up a trade ahead and this is your best case.
2. Averages 100ish - Still a keeper, you get him cheaper but you're only ahead if your alternative did better.
3. Averages 120 - Epic fail.
4. Averages 110 - You better have done well on the alternative because that's still a strong pick.
I guess there's a 90 type average argument that could be made but I'm not making it for a guy who has averaged 100+ in bit part roles the past 3 years, that's someone else's task.
Unless you genuinely think he's going to average low 90s or worse then injury is your only genuine win to fading.
I say this as probably his biggest doubter over the past two seasons as a starting pick but this year is just different, all of strengths are highlighted now, the only weakness he's still got is durability and even that has weakened in the past 12 months.
Just lock him in and look for an edge in the other 29 spots
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When he's injured in the preseason?
Honestly, he averaged 115+ (was more like 120) when he last played as a pure midfielder and looks set to do that this year. He managed to play a full season and then goes to the club with the best medical staff in the league so even his biggest negative has firmed up this year.
Basically you're betting on an injury. Not often you have a guy at 108 who looks to be genuinely underpriced with the potential to average 120.
I just don't see the potential reward of fading him.
1. Injury - It's a win but if he's been averaging 120 until the injury, he might have even made cash and you've lost the points. Best case here is an early injury, early in a game that tanks price but then everyone just jumps on the best option with more information of who it is, quite possible you end up a trade ahead and this is your best case.
2. Averages 100ish - Still a keeper, you get him cheaper but you're only ahead if your alternative did better.
3. Averages 120 - Epic fail.
4. Averages 110 - You better have done well on the alternative because that's still a strong pick.
I guess there's a 90 type average argument that could be made but I'm not making it for a guy who has averaged 100+ in bit part roles the past 3 years, that's someone else's task.
Unless you genuinely think he's going to average low 90s or worse then injury is your only genuine win to fading.
I say this as probably his biggest doubter over the past two seasons as a starting pick but this year is just different, all of strengths are highlighted now, the only weakness he's still got is durability and even that has weakened in the past 12 months.
Just lock him in and look for an edge in the other 29 spots
Honestly, he averaged 115+ (was more like 120) when he last played as a pure midfielder and looks set to do that this year. He managed to play a full season and then goes to the club with the best medical staff in the league so even his biggest negative has firmed up this year.
Basically you're betting on an injury. Not often you have a guy at 108 who looks to be genuinely underpriced with the potential to average 120.
I just don't see the potential reward of fading him.
1. Injury - It's a win but if he's been averaging 120 until the injury, he might have even made cash and you've lost the points. Best case here is an early injury, early in a game that tanks price but then everyone just jumps on the best option with more information of who it is, quite possible you end up a trade ahead and this is your best case.
2. Averages 100ish - Still a keeper, you get him cheaper but you're only ahead if your alternative did better.
3. Averages 120 - Epic fail.
4. Averages 110 - You better have done well on the alternative because that's still a strong pick.
I guess there's a 90 type average argument that could be made but I'm not making it for a guy who has averaged 100+ in bit part roles the past 3 years, that's someone else's task.
Unless you genuinely think he's going to average low 90s or worse then injury is your only genuine win to fading.
I say this as probably his biggest doubter over the past two seasons as a starting pick but this year is just different, all of strengths are highlighted now, the only weakness he's still got is durability and even that has weakened in the past 12 months.
Just lock him in and look for an edge in the other 29 spots
Haha, I've done that the last two years, all the stones I found would have failed if I'd actually picked them
Ultimately if you can find similar production for less, it's a good pick but not having the top scorer on a line really hurts, especially if he goes hard.
Would probably see more options if there was a legitimately safe option durability wise at the top but when Heeney is one of the best for durability you know it's a questionable group.
I do think Dylan Moore is a must watch, I think he could definitely end up in their main midfield group this year and he's shown a real propensity to score when getting up the field. He also hasn't got the horrid injury history of most of the others.
End of the day, I really like this forward group but I keep coming back to Rozee, Taranto, Dunkley and Coniglio. Might change when I see some games but I can't help but see value in all 4, which give all effectively start inside the top 5 from last year is a crazy scenario.
Based on my last few seasons, watch all the premium defenders add 10ppg to their scoring and all the premium forwards fall to pieces while I'm loaded up on the forwards and have none of the defenders
Ultimately if you can find similar production for less, it's a good pick but not having the top scorer on a line really hurts, especially if he goes hard.
Would probably see more options if there was a legitimately safe option durability wise at the top but when Heeney is one of the best for durability you know it's a questionable group.
I do think Dylan Moore is a must watch, I think he could definitely end up in their main midfield group this year and he's shown a real propensity to score when getting up the field. He also hasn't got the horrid injury history of most of the others.
End of the day, I really like this forward group but I keep coming back to Rozee, Taranto, Dunkley and Coniglio. Might change when I see some games but I can't help but see value in all 4, which give all effectively start inside the top 5 from last year is a crazy scenario.
Based on my last few seasons, watch all the premium defenders add 10ppg to their scoring and all the premium forwards fall to pieces while I'm loaded up on the forwards and have none of the defenders
Haha, I've done that the last two years, all the stones I found would have failed if I'd actually picked them
Ultimately if you can find similar production for less, it's a good pick but not having the top scorer on a line really hurts, especially if he goes hard.
Would probably see more options if there was a legitimately safe option durability wise at the top but when Heeney is one of the best for durability you know it's a questionable group.
I do think Dylan Moore is a must watch, I think he could definitely end up in their main midfield group this year and he's shown a real propensity to score when getting up the field. He also hasn't got the horrid injury history of most of the others.
End of the day, I really like this forward group but I keep coming back to Rozee, Taranto, Dunkley and Coniglio. Might change when I see some games but I can't help but see value in all 4, which give all effectively start inside the top 5 from last year is a crazy scenario.
Based on my last few seasons, watch all the premium defenders add 10ppg to their scoring and all the premium forwards fall to pieces while I'm loaded up on the forwards and have none of the defenders
Ultimately if you can find similar production for less, it's a good pick but not having the top scorer on a line really hurts, especially if he goes hard.
Would probably see more options if there was a legitimately safe option durability wise at the top but when Heeney is one of the best for durability you know it's a questionable group.
I do think Dylan Moore is a must watch, I think he could definitely end up in their main midfield group this year and he's shown a real propensity to score when getting up the field. He also hasn't got the horrid injury history of most of the others.
End of the day, I really like this forward group but I keep coming back to Rozee, Taranto, Dunkley and Coniglio. Might change when I see some games but I can't help but see value in all 4, which give all effectively start inside the top 5 from last year is a crazy scenario.
Based on my last few seasons, watch all the premium defenders add 10ppg to their scoring and all the premium forwards fall to pieces while I'm loaded up on the forwards and have none of the defenders
Definitely difficult to fit them all in.
Ziebell goes to DEF, so that eases one slot. Can probably pick a couple in the mids if you really wanted but once you've got 6 you're even picking them expecting them to fail or you're pretty damn certain they're top 6 worthy.
I think with the premiums, who all offer value imo, you can feel good about top 6. I don't think the Ziebell/Cunnington/Fyfe picks feel nearly as safe for that, albeit you can make a case for all of them that's very strong that they can be.
Ultimately rookies dictate things, Ashcroft seems to be locking himself in, after that it's wild and he's so expensive that he doesn't help the rookie balance that much.
Ziebell goes to DEF, so that eases one slot. Can probably pick a couple in the mids if you really wanted but once you've got 6 you're even picking them expecting them to fail or you're pretty damn certain they're top 6 worthy.
I think with the premiums, who all offer value imo, you can feel good about top 6. I don't think the Ziebell/Cunnington/Fyfe picks feel nearly as safe for that, albeit you can make a case for all of them that's very strong that they can be.
Ultimately rookies dictate things, Ashcroft seems to be locking himself in, after that it's wild and he's so expensive that he doesn't help the rookie balance that much.
Looks good, expect he'll play Round 1, should get nice midfield minutes, even if not big CBA's.
It will probably be unclear where he is as Treloar/Smith have had interrupted pre-seasons. Be better if they both play Round 1 so we get a better indication of his job security/role. Hard to ignore though even if one of them miss Round 1.
It will probably be unclear where he is as Treloar/Smith have had interrupted pre-seasons. Be better if they both play Round 1 so we get a better indication of his job security/role. Hard to ignore though even if one of them miss Round 1.
Little annoyed Motlop is at a very awkward 243k, in a role that isn’t super SC friendly but from all reports he’s the one who has been turning the most heads this preseason. Would very much be on my radar if he was under the 200k price point, but don’t think I can have both Motlop and Allen. A watch for pre season at this stage
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K Chandler:
Price: $123,900
Position: Fwd
Team: Melbourne
https://www.afl.com.au/news/874461/...eash-out-of-contract-speedster-in-engine-room
“Kade Chandler has played ten games across four seasons at the club, but been the medi-sub on eight occasions – four times unused – and is set to be rewarded with greater opportunity following a strong summer.”
2019: 60 from 1
2020: DNP
2021: 1.4 from 5
2022: 4.8 from 4
Price: $123,900
Position: Fwd
Team: Melbourne
https://www.afl.com.au/news/874461/...eash-out-of-contract-speedster-in-engine-room
“Kade Chandler has played ten games across four seasons at the club, but been the medi-sub on eight occasions – four times unused – and is set to be rewarded with greater opportunity following a strong summer.”
2019: 60 from 1
2020: DNP
2021: 1.4 from 5
2022: 4.8 from 4