And if the $500k players do become keepers, you are down a trade from the onset and people can bring in the top-liners for a depreciated price. You are not picking $500k players thinking they will flop, at the very worst the expectation you'll be having is that they wont be top liners but still high scoring enough to be competitive for your side until you have a "completed" team where you can then flip them for the better scorers if need be.
2023: SC Planning Thread
- Thread starter Gruffles
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There's some really good discussion in here atm, really sets this board apart from the likes of BF.
Really important point this - we all say we'll just pick up the uber premiums during the season but in reality it's super hard to do without hurting other areas of the team. Laird was a classic example last season, if you got him early you were miles in front of others, same with Sinclair. This year I'm finding it hard because you could make a case for Laird, Oliver, Neale, Miller, Bont even and possibly Macrae that could fit into this category. Dunkley, Doch and Dawson also without even mentioning Sinclair again or Sicily. There's a lot of future coin and trades to bring these guys in.
These types, add Hopper, Young, Daicos etc can vreate all sorts of issues in a team having too many. There's a bunch of potential trades and dropped cash/points in mid-pricers and whilst you can say it's easy to just sideways or boost to a premium, it rarely is with other issues in a team.
I guess the thing is to have a plan for players not selected as keepers/rookies. I've always been caught out holding mediocre mid-pricers, especially in the middle like that Hopper range.
Really important point this - we all say we'll just pick up the uber premiums during the season but in reality it's super hard to do without hurting other areas of the team. Laird was a classic example last season, if you got him early you were miles in front of others, same with Sinclair. This year I'm finding it hard because you could make a case for Laird, Oliver, Neale, Miller, Bont even and possibly Macrae that could fit into this category. Dunkley, Doch and Dawson also without even mentioning Sinclair again or Sicily. There's a lot of future coin and trades to bring these guys in.
These types, add Hopper, Young, Daicos etc can vreate all sorts of issues in a team having too many. There's a bunch of potential trades and dropped cash/points in mid-pricers and whilst you can say it's easy to just sideways or boost to a premium, it rarely is with other issues in a team.
I guess the thing is to have a plan for players not selected as keepers/rookies. I've always been caught out holding mediocre mid-pricers, especially in the middle like that Hopper range.
I guess the way I am seeing Daicos v Rozee/Taranto as similar price types is that it seems a lot "easier" to become a premium forward than a premium defender.
No guarantee that the 5 x $ 600k + defenders back up last season , but based on players to select 15 of them averaged 95+ , yet on aggregate he is ranked 12th.
Does he get to that 95-100 ppg ?
Then he indeed works.
If Collingwood's midfield ever stayed on the park altogether it could be anything 😀
Not sure who rotates with Titch
JDG & Elliott (from memory) were 1 pair
Adams & Lipinski rotate
Cripps , Daicos , Maynard , Pendles
Sidey will float in and out.
Still would love to see a stat that shows a players points from CBA , seen some players attend CBA's with the sole purpose of being a stopper.
Obviously they have more opportunity at a CB but if it isn't a clear HTA , clean possession , disposal (kick or handball to another) it soon becomes a free for all.
Would have thought their are more around the ground stoppages than CB.
But I digress
Forwards outside of Dunkley , Heeney (forgotten again) & Cogs the premium field looks fairly open.
Next best on average was Moore with 94.6
Who knows who will/won't get DPP added so could completely change , same could be said in defence if the likes of Crisp , Pendles , Short , Whitfield etc get DPP.
Certainly will be interesting to see if the likes of Anderson , Green , LDU , Warner etc do take that next step.
Good point about why we need more than 2 $ 630k + players as VC/C
Like you said they could all be viable starting picks and sideways at Bye time if need be.
6-7 months we will look back and think wow he was such a obvious pick.
Enjoy your posts and your approach/thinking about how to play the game.
I misread the original post and was thinking $ 350k players as mid pricers whereas guys like Allen , Coffield , McLean etc are probably midpricers.
Maybe we should just think in terms of players we hope to keep all season and others that we probably have to trade.
No guarantee that the 5 x $ 600k + defenders back up last season , but based on players to select 15 of them averaged 95+ , yet on aggregate he is ranked 12th.
Does he get to that 95-100 ppg ?
Then he indeed works.
If Collingwood's midfield ever stayed on the park altogether it could be anything 😀
Not sure who rotates with Titch
JDG & Elliott (from memory) were 1 pair
Adams & Lipinski rotate
Cripps , Daicos , Maynard , Pendles
Sidey will float in and out.
Still would love to see a stat that shows a players points from CBA , seen some players attend CBA's with the sole purpose of being a stopper.
Obviously they have more opportunity at a CB but if it isn't a clear HTA , clean possession , disposal (kick or handball to another) it soon becomes a free for all.
Would have thought their are more around the ground stoppages than CB.
But I digress
Forwards outside of Dunkley , Heeney (forgotten again) & Cogs the premium field looks fairly open.
Next best on average was Moore with 94.6
Who knows who will/won't get DPP added so could completely change , same could be said in defence if the likes of Crisp , Pendles , Short , Whitfield etc get DPP.
Certainly will be interesting to see if the likes of Anderson , Green , LDU , Warner etc do take that next step.
Good point about why we need more than 2 $ 630k + players as VC/C
Like you said they could all be viable starting picks and sideways at Bye time if need be.
6-7 months we will look back and think wow he was such a obvious pick.
Enjoy your posts and your approach/thinking about how to play the game.
I misread the original post and was thinking $ 350k players as mid pricers whereas guys like Allen , Coffield , McLean etc are probably midpricers.
Maybe we should just think in terms of players we hope to keep all season and others that we probably have to trade.
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As you said, it is good discussion.
Your bolded versus my unbolded is what makes it so interesting. You are likely right on some, but not on others.
All of those named (bar maybe Ridley if he has to play KPD) are likely to increase their average. There is no obvious reasons why they would go backwards, barring injury. Yes, Daicos is a second year risk, but he did do the pre-season in 2020/21 with Collingwood (and they said he was ready then), so he is a bit different to most players.
Your bolded versus my unbolded is what makes it so interesting. You are likely right on some, but not on others.
All of those named (bar maybe Ridley if he has to play KPD) are likely to increase their average. There is no obvious reasons why they would go backwards, barring injury. Yes, Daicos is a second year risk, but he did do the pre-season in 2020/21 with Collingwood (and they said he was ready then), so he is a bit different to most players.
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His only useful role is around the stoppages as much as possible. That's why they chased him presumably. He is the master of giving it and demanding it back and I can't see McRae trying to reinvent him.
He has averaged over the 113 for 4 of the past 5 years. Last year's drop off was purely coach related (fully understandable from Sam M. though).
He has averaged over the 113 for 4 of the past 5 years. Last year's drop off was purely coach related (fully understandable from Sam M. though).
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I'm warming to Titch, reading a few training reports he's back in all the stoppages and has also been seen linking up around the ground, good signs. I think he's got something to prove and if JDG, Daicos, TayAdams and Titch remain fit, that's a pretty well balanced and dangerous midfield midfield especially when you have Crisp that'll likely be more a defensive midfielder and Jamie Elliot pushing through there. Add Josh Daicos who is one of the elite wingman of the comp and still young, I think he'll improve on his priced average for sure.
This doesn't allow for Goals after the siren, nor stoppages where no hitouts were recorded, but ....
Hitouts recorded in 2022 = 14,835
Less 209 games x 4 Qtrs = 836 CB's to start each Qtr
Less 5003 Goals kicked
CB Stoppages = 5,839
Other Stoppages = 8,936
To be honest, I thought the CB's of 39.4% of stoppages would have been a lot lower.
Hitouts recorded in 2022 = 14,835
Less 209 games x 4 Qtrs = 836 CB's to start each Qtr
Less 5003 Goals kicked
CB Stoppages = 5,839
Other Stoppages = 8,936
To be honest, I thought the CB's of 39.4% of stoppages would have been a lot lower.
Collingwood run and gun they dont stuff around with pointless one two's and switches of play that were a staple of Titch's scoring in his big seasons, they can obviously adjust with different personnel but would be surprised if they made too drastic of a change after they lost a QF by under a kick to the eventual premiers and were very unlucky to get rolled in the Prelim.
We all know what he can do at the coalface but I'll be watching for his involvement in transition and general post stoppage play, if that isn't there its very hard to see 110+ happening the way the Pies play.
We all know what he can do at the coalface but I'll be watching for his involvement in transition and general post stoppage play, if that isn't there its very hard to see 110+ happening the way the Pies play.
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Interesting to see.
Does other stoppages include boundary throw ins (I assume it would) , remember watching a Eagles game a few years ago and NicNat definitely had set plays he used for them , was actually good watching some of the mids basically decoy running , so he could hit either to player or into free space.
Melbourne would be interesting to see the % of who Gawn taps too out of Oliver & Petracca.
Their advantage might completely change with Grundy.
Does other stoppages include boundary throw ins (I assume it would) , remember watching a Eagles game a few years ago and NicNat definitely had set plays he used for them , was actually good watching some of the mids basically decoy running , so he could hit either to player or into free space.
Melbourne would be interesting to see the % of who Gawn taps too out of Oliver & Petracca.
Their advantage might completely change with Grundy.
Question for those in this very interesting discussion.
What % of expensive players do you think turn out to be happy or neutral picks, and what % turn out to be disappointing?
Everyone has a different definition and expectation of what is happy/neutral/disappointing.
Using the following definition, give your answer.
Happy pick - played 20+ games - averaged 3+ more than last season
Neutral pick - played 19+ games - averaged between +2 and -10 on last seasons average
Disappointing - played 18 games or less, and/or scored more than 10 less than last season.
I will be very interested to see what peoples expectations are. The talk of "safe" picks etc. has me intrigued as to whether your expectations meet the reality.
What % of expensive players do you think turn out to be happy or neutral picks, and what % turn out to be disappointing?
Everyone has a different definition and expectation of what is happy/neutral/disappointing.
Using the following definition, give your answer.
Happy pick - played 20+ games - averaged 3+ more than last season
Neutral pick - played 19+ games - averaged between +2 and -10 on last seasons average
Disappointing - played 18 games or less, and/or scored more than 10 less than last season.
I will be very interested to see what peoples expectations are. The talk of "safe" picks etc. has me intrigued as to whether your expectations meet the reality.
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There sometimes seems to be a presumption that players are immune to unforeseen fluctuations if they cost more than $600K though.
Look at Miller's start last year, Macrae's finish, Neale 2 years ago, Steele last year, Grundy last year, Cripps for 2020 and 21.
Oliver has a bung thumb and will be roving to a ruckman he is unfamiliar with. Is he guaranteed 127?
Look at Miller's start last year, Macrae's finish, Neale 2 years ago, Steele last year, Grundy last year, Cripps for 2020 and 21.
Oliver has a bung thumb and will be roving to a ruckman he is unfamiliar with. Is he guaranteed 127?
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Yes, but it's still pickinig the right one that's the issue. I have no doubt one or more of the big 5-6 will fall to a tasty price but it's somewhat pot luck who that is to fade. Laird ultra-consistant, Oliver and Miller both prone to runs of big scores, Neale can go bang early in a season, Bont could be a huge winner from Dunks leaving, Macrae can put good numbers together - these are the guys IMO that can make a big difference in starting a season in the top 2000 or bottom 30000.
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