Position 2023: Midfield Discussion

[James4]

Hi Guys - not a regular poster but am definitely a regular reader. Love the content!

Just wondering what everyone is thinking on Cripps? Is it my Carlton bias that is making me want to pick him?

110+ average in 2022 which includes an injury affected 38 and a mid-season lull caused by him spending more time forward with a clear focus on being a big body in F50 stoppages and creating repeat stoppages. I feel this was mostly a result of losing ruck-dominance while Pittonet was out, so if he is fit I don't see Cripps playing forward as much.

With Walsh out early (and presumably going to take some time to return to a predominately mid role) I see Cripps as the absolute main man in the Carlton midfield setup. Plus he is seemingly hard to tag.

Based on all of this he seems criminally under owned. Particularly with people more interested in a Jack Steele who seems to have many more question marks at a comparable price.

Any thoughts appreciated!

 

[dlanod]

I've considered him and there's a strong chance he ends up in my team. A case could be made that he's underpriced, relatively speaking, by 5-10 points. I don't think he'll suddenly jump to 120+ (there's a chance, but a small one at this stage) given his best years fell marginally short of that.
Steele, by comparison, has broken that 120 mark two years running before last year, and using similar logic would be 10-15 points underpriced. He's a fairly obviously more tempting target.

I think interest in him is suffering by comparison - to me, Steele would be a clear preference in a vacuum (cheaper, higher scores, more recently), and not many team structures would be calling for two relatively expensive "fallen premiums". I love my fallen premiums more than most, but I know I rather my fallen premiums to have prices starting with a 5 .

 

[Athomas]

Just wondering what everyone is thinking on Cripps? Is it my Carlton bias that is making me want to pick him?

Any thoughts appreciated!

Cripps with Hewett: 103 average from 14 games
Cripps with Hewett (taking out injury game): 108 average from 13 games

Cripps without Hewett: 128 average from 7 games

I think it's a pretty big correlation, so I'm happy to leave him out. Kennedy also missed some games last year (Cripps averaged 119 from the 5 games with no Kennedy too) - I think Walsh is less relevant but Cripps did score 132+121 in the two games Walsh missed too.

 

[Herbie66]

Hi Guys - not a regular poster but am definitely a regular reader. Love the content!

Just wondering what everyone is thinking on Cripps? Is it my Carlton bias that is making me want to pick him?

110+ average in 2022 which includes an injury affected 38 and a mid-season lull caused by him spending more time forward with a clear focus on being a big body in F50 stoppages and creating repeat stoppages. I feel this was mostly a result of losing ruck-dominance while Pittonet was out, so if he is fit I don't see Cripps playing forward as much.

With Walsh out early (and presumably going to take some time to return to a predominately mid role) I see Cripps as the absolute main man in the Carlton midfield setup. Plus he is seemingly hard to tag.

Based on all of this he seems criminally under owned. Particularly with people more interested in a Jack Steele who seems to have many more question marks at a comparable price.

Any thoughts appreciated!

Small sample size admittedly, but last season Cripps & Pittonet played 7 games together

Cripps scores :-

Round 1 132
Round 2 162
Round 3 119 (Pittonet subbed off)
Round 6 139 (Pittonet subbed off)
Round 20 146
Round 22 117
Round 23 121

Ave 133.71

 

[James4]

I've considered him and there's a strong chance he ends up in my team. A case could be made that he's underpriced, relatively speaking, by 5-10 points. I don't think he'll suddenly jump to 120+ (there's a chance, but a small one at this stage) given his best years fell marginally short of that.
Steele, by comparison, has broken that 120 mark two years running before last year, and using similar logic would be 10-15 points underpriced. He's a fairly obviously more tempting target.

I think interest in him is suffering by comparison - to me, Steele would be a clear preference in a vacuum (cheaper, higher scores, more recently), and not many team structures would be calling for two relatively expensive "fallen premiums". I love my fallen premiums more than most, but I know I rather my fallen premiums to have prices starting with a 5 .

Cripps with Hewett: 103 average from 14 games
Cripps with Hewett (taking out injury game): 108 average from 13 games

Cripps without Hewett: 128 average from 7 games

I think it's a pretty big correlation, so I'm happy to leave him out. Kennedy also missed some games last year (Cripps averaged 119 from the 5 games with no Kennedy too) - I think Walsh is less relevant but Cripps did score 132+121 in the two games Walsh missed too.

Small sample size admittedly, but last season Cripps & Pittonet played 7 games together

Cripps scores :-

Round 1 132
Round 2 162
Round 3 119 (Pittonet subbed off)
Round 6 139 (Pittonet subbed off)
Round 20 146
Round 22 117
Round 23 121

Ave 133.71

Thanks All - great responses!

So it seems that it almost comes down to considering who we think impacts Cripps more, Hewett (negative) or Pittonet (positive)….

My immediate thought is that Hewett was there and prominent at the stoppages in those early rounds that Cripps dominated. Maybe I’m just trying to sell myself on the pick?

 

[Herbie66]

R Laird since move to midfield in RD9 of 2020:
93, 120, 185, 77, 120, 102, 122, 136, 108, 102, 121, 95, 105, 94, 111, 75, 125, 120, 123, 92, 144, 132, 109, 129, 123, 104, 178, 102, 119, 105, 149, 93, 140, 120, 123, 116, 123, 142, 105, 118, 136, 114, 156, 130, 125, 154, 140, 144, 145, 97 and 133.

100+= 43/51
120+= 29/51

I am too lazy to work it out manually but do you have his AO average handy in that time period ?

Career wise 102.9 (from 96) , expect it would be considerably higher since the midfield move.

4 of their first 5 @ AO

 

[Feerits Elf]

I am too lazy to work it out manually but do you have his AO average handy in that time period?

120.3

I should point out that that average is dragged up by the mammoth 185 he scored against Collingwood in Rd 11 2020 (Laird being more of a 120-150 kinda guy). Eliminate that and the AO average drops to 115.8.

 

[Locus Levy Lunacy]

Thanks All - great responses!

So it seems that it almost comes down to considering who we think impacts Cripps more, Hewett (negative) or Pittonet (positive)….

My immediate thought is that Hewett was there and prominent at the stoppages in those early rounds that Cripps dominated. Maybe I’m just trying to sell myself on the pick?

We had our full midfield early in the year, except Walsh in round 1.

Cripps averaged 140 for his first 6 games, excluding the 38 where he came off at quarter time.

I personally think losing Pittonet hurt him a lot more than whatever the midfield mix was. As TDK started to tire, it affected Cripps in 2 ways. One, he didn't get the same service from the ruckmen (undersized Silvagni being the other) and two, he had to use his bigger body in the ruck himself to negate the opposition ruckmen. He is not going to score points as a ruckman and was basically sacrificing his game for the team.

When all the ruckmen were available again for the last 4 rounds, he averaged 122.

 

[Herbie66]

120.3

I should point out that that average is dragged up by the mammoth 185 he scored against Collingwood in Rd 11 2020 (Laird being more of a 120-150 kinda guy). Eliminate that and the AO average drops to 115.8.

Just had a look on FanFooty

2022 Ave 124.54 from 11 games , 7 x 120+
2021 Ave 123.54 from 11 games , 5 x 120+

 

[TeeButOne]

Gets brought up most years, I know, but any value in temporarily starting Dunkley in the MID (at about M4) to allow an extra FWD premium pick? Means you have less worry about loading up on viable FWD premiums, and still leaving room to either bring him back FWD, or bring in a newly-created M/F DPP in several rounds time.

 

[Feerits Elf]

Just had a look on FanFooty

2022 Ave 124.54 from 11 games , 7 x 120+
2021 Ave 123.54 from 11 games , 5 x 120+

Very true, I'd missed 2 games

With those games accounted for it's 121 at AO over the period (27 matches) down to 118.5 with the outlier 185 eliminated

Versus Richmond: 108 and 120
Versus Port: 125 and 93
Versus Fremantle: 94

 

[NT.Thunder]

Gets brought up most years, I know, but any value in temporarily starting Dunkley in the MID (at about M4) to allow an extra FWD premium pick? Means you have less worry about loading up on viable FWD premiums, and still leaving room to either bring him back FWD, or bring in a newly-created M/F DPP in several rounds time.

No, not IMO. I've had a couple of structures with a FWD premium in the mids

 

[Locky27]

Forward premiums are easier to chase during the season. Start with high priced mid premo instead, and aim to bring in whichever of Rozee/Taranto/Coniglio you aren't starting.

 

[Connoisseur]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1627420134259462144

 

[Connoisseur]

Cripps averaged 140 for his first 6 games, excluding the 38 where he came off at quarter time.

12 goals in those six games and 13 including the 38 match. Previous season high for goals was 13 in 2021 and 2019. All six also involved 30 disposals or more.

 

[Russty_]

Hi Guys - not a regular poster but am definitely a regular reader. Love the content!

Just wondering what everyone is thinking on Cripps? Is it my Carlton bias that is making me want to pick him?

110+ average in 2022 which includes an injury affected 38 and a mid-season lull caused by him spending more time forward with a clear focus on being a big body in F50 stoppages and creating repeat stoppages. I feel this was mostly a result of losing ruck-dominance while Pittonet was out, so if he is fit I don't see Cripps playing forward as much.

With Walsh out early (and presumably going to take some time to return to a predominately mid role) I see Cripps as the absolute main man in the Carlton midfield setup. Plus he is seemingly hard to tag.

Based on all of this he seems criminally under owned. Particularly with people more interested in a Jack Steele who seems to have many more question marks at a comparable price.

Any thoughts appreciated!

I'm not a number cruncher like many others on here and I know they've already helped you out with some good data but my two cents is if he's one of your favourite players and plays for your team it's always enjoyable to have them in your SC side. I've had Jack Steele in my side ever since Ratts released him from the run with role he got stuck in under Richo.
This year I'll hopefully enjoy having Steele, Marshall, Coffield and Phillipou in my side

 

[Toothless Tigers]

I'm not a number cruncher like many others on here and I know they've already helped you out with some good data but my two cents is if he's one of your favourite players and plays for your team it's always enjoyable to have them in your SC side. I've had Jack Steele in my side ever since Ratts released him from the run with role he got stuck in under Richo.
This year I'll hopefully enjoy having Steele, Marshall, Coffield and Phillipou in my side

Do you expect Coffield to play, or are you chasing

 

[Russty_]

Do you expect Coffield to play, or are you chasing

Why wouldn't Marshall play?..Coffield is a wait and see, I think they're just easing him into it.

 

[donnybuang]

12 goals in those six games and 13 including the 38 match. Previous season high for goals was 13 in 2021 and 2019. All six also involved 30 disposals or more.

He was my captain that day 😪

 

[wogitalia]

Gets brought up most years, I know, but any value in temporarily starting Dunkley in the MID (at about M4) to allow an extra FWD premium pick? Means you have less worry about loading up on viable FWD premiums, and still leaving room to either bring him back FWD, or bring in a newly-created M/F DPP in several rounds time.

In short, almost certainly no.

The only time it actually means anything is if all your forward rookies, especially the on field ones, don't have DPP and thus you're using Dunkley in the mids to field those FWD only rookies over the mid rookies.

If you've got a DPP rookie then all you're doing playing Dunkley in the mids is starting a forward rookie over a mid rookie and could obtain the exact same result starting a rookie DPP in the mids.

I'm ignoring the absurd scenario where there are 6 forwards, not including Dunkley, who are outscoring the top mids and that Dunkley is only viable as a midfielder because it's never been even remotely close to happening.

It quite simply doesn't change the amount of FWD premiums you're starting, where you hide them doesn't change that.

DPP in starting sides is literally just about what rookies you choose to start where, outside the rucks where a DPP guy can be taken as a stopgap to work out *** is happening there