Analysis 2023 Preseason Games
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Swans vs Lions
General - Watched 3 quarters. Both sides relatively close to full strength which was nice as gives good reads, both going relatively hard but definitely not high pressure. Conditions seemed fine and skills were at a higher standard than the other two games overall albeit not at Geelong's pressure free level. Was pretty even for a half but Lions got completely on top in the third.
Swans - Some worrying signs, inability to stop the Lions when they got a run on, a lot of skill errors from players you wouldn't expect it and just a generally dysfunctional forward line, was basically free kicks and midfield goals as the only path. Lot of fringe guys missing but a couple of the missing names are very important.
Missing - McLean, Clarke, Cunningham, Papley, Wicks, Ladhams, Blakey, Hickey, Amartey and Fox.
Warner - Started forward and played a similar role to last year. HF and midfield rotations, not close to the main group in midfield time but was very good at finding the ball when on ball, as with last year, he fades almost entirely out of the game when he goes forward, looks much more likely to kick goals as a mid at this point in his career. Butchered it today, which is not his normal standard. If anything his needle moved in the wrong direction for me to select him.
Stephens - Played wing, was good early, did fade a bit. not relevant.
Heeney - Played almost exclusively forward, went on ball late in Q3 after the horse had bolted to get a few cheapies. Was really solid but role same as last year where it felt like he probably overachieved if anything. Likely to have a few weeks where he gets elite defenders and drops in price which makes him an upgrade target if anything for me.
McDonald - Looks to have added size but had a poor game. Hopefully he can take the leap this year but didn't show any indication today.
Rowbottom - Had a great role, continues to be the Swans version of Worpel. I can't help but feel like he just takes midfield minutes from guys who would actually help us retain the ball and be better. I can't fault his effort, he tries really hard, but he's just so low skilled it's hard to get around him. Especially when it's Warner, Mills, Heeney and Gulden that he's taking midfield minutes from. I just don't get what Horse sees in him, it's not like any of that group of elite players doesn't tackle just as willingly as Rowbottom either. I will say his hands weren't as bad as his kicking or normal today so perhaps that's a positive.
Hayward - Forward, very little impact.
Francis - Really hard to read where he's at because Blakey and Fox both are similar types and were two of our best at the end of last year. He played really well though, have to give him credit for that. I thought he was better than Rampe who is perhaps the most vulnerable best 22 guy in my eyes but his job security would be at best bad if he does make the side round 1. Think he'll actually score pretty well if he can play though.
Florent - Playing HB and took the vast majority of kick-ins, I had him on all but 1 that Lloyd took but I did miss a couple. I don't think he's relevant in classic but could be a solid draft option and is probably an injury from pushing right towards the 90s range.
Mills - Role was poor, started forward and was rotating through the middle, it might be experimental but Gulden basically had swapped roles with him for this game. He played really well but it was almost entirely when he was on ball and the role was dreadful at his price.
Campbell - Played half back and he'd be the first out for Blakey/Fox on this performance. There's so much talent here but he's starting to look shellshocked out there and, sadly, not many come back from that after being hyped talents that get destroyed by a coach, he just looks to have lost all the swagger that made him so exciting.
Reid/Franklin - Reid played H1, Franklin came on for Q3, standard roles.
Gulden - Probably Sydney's best, played a 75/25 midfield role and I had him second only to Parker on CBA count, was high even when forward and was linking up a lot. Definitely moved up in my rankings but I just don't trust Horse to have any consistency or even that the role will be there. I mean it looked like a pretty much normal midfield rotation so that's promising but as much as I rate Gulden and as much as I know Horse doesn't rate Mills, I just can't see the split holding up.
Rampe/McCartin x2 - Standard roles for them.
Parker - Same old for him, led in CBA from my count, role was good. Relevant if he gets really cheap or DPP again, especially if both!
Edwards - I don't think he plays but was playing as a 2nd ruck/forward, wasn't terrible but would hope he's not rucking in the real stuff.
Roberts - Had a very juicy role, I dare say was helped by no Papley but was high HF/wing/midfield with his minutes and was very solid. 123k MID so would be relevant if he plays early in anything resembling that role. Looked his best when playing midfield which is unfortunately the least likely spot he lands but was very solid and definitely looks AFL ready now.
McInerney - Played a pure wing role, nothing to really note.
Lloyd - Didn't take many kick-ins even without Blakey. Didn't see anything from him to suggest he turns back the clock.
McAndrew - He played really solid footy. Definitely don't expect to see him but played ahead of Hickey and Ladhams, for whatever reason, and held up very nicely against both Brisbane rucks. He also looks AFL ready. Don't expect him to play but Hickey is pretty injury prone and Ladhams can turn a coach off real fast so worth throwing on the watch list this year.
General - Watched 3 quarters. Both sides relatively close to full strength which was nice as gives good reads, both going relatively hard but definitely not high pressure. Conditions seemed fine and skills were at a higher standard than the other two games overall albeit not at Geelong's pressure free level. Was pretty even for a half but Lions got completely on top in the third.
Swans - Some worrying signs, inability to stop the Lions when they got a run on, a lot of skill errors from players you wouldn't expect it and just a generally dysfunctional forward line, was basically free kicks and midfield goals as the only path. Lot of fringe guys missing but a couple of the missing names are very important.
Missing - McLean, Clarke, Cunningham, Papley, Wicks, Ladhams, Blakey, Hickey, Amartey and Fox.
Warner - Started forward and played a similar role to last year. HF and midfield rotations, not close to the main group in midfield time but was very good at finding the ball when on ball, as with last year, he fades almost entirely out of the game when he goes forward, looks much more likely to kick goals as a mid at this point in his career. Butchered it today, which is not his normal standard. If anything his needle moved in the wrong direction for me to select him.
Stephens - Played wing, was good early, did fade a bit. not relevant.
Heeney - Played almost exclusively forward, went on ball late in Q3 after the horse had bolted to get a few cheapies. Was really solid but role same as last year where it felt like he probably overachieved if anything. Likely to have a few weeks where he gets elite defenders and drops in price which makes him an upgrade target if anything for me.
McDonald - Looks to have added size but had a poor game. Hopefully he can take the leap this year but didn't show any indication today.
Rowbottom - Had a great role, continues to be the Swans version of Worpel. I can't help but feel like he just takes midfield minutes from guys who would actually help us retain the ball and be better. I can't fault his effort, he tries really hard, but he's just so low skilled it's hard to get around him. Especially when it's Warner, Mills, Heeney and Gulden that he's taking midfield minutes from. I just don't get what Horse sees in him, it's not like any of that group of elite players doesn't tackle just as willingly as Rowbottom either. I will say his hands weren't as bad as his kicking or normal today so perhaps that's a positive.
Hayward - Forward, very little impact.
Francis - Really hard to read where he's at because Blakey and Fox both are similar types and were two of our best at the end of last year. He played really well though, have to give him credit for that. I thought he was better than Rampe who is perhaps the most vulnerable best 22 guy in my eyes but his job security would be at best bad if he does make the side round 1. Think he'll actually score pretty well if he can play though.
Florent - Playing HB and took the vast majority of kick-ins, I had him on all but 1 that Lloyd took but I did miss a couple. I don't think he's relevant in classic but could be a solid draft option and is probably an injury from pushing right towards the 90s range.
Mills - Role was poor, started forward and was rotating through the middle, it might be experimental but Gulden basically had swapped roles with him for this game. He played really well but it was almost entirely when he was on ball and the role was dreadful at his price.
Campbell - Played half back and he'd be the first out for Blakey/Fox on this performance. There's so much talent here but he's starting to look shellshocked out there and, sadly, not many come back from that after being hyped talents that get destroyed by a coach, he just looks to have lost all the swagger that made him so exciting.
Reid/Franklin - Reid played H1, Franklin came on for Q3, standard roles.
Gulden - Probably Sydney's best, played a 75/25 midfield role and I had him second only to Parker on CBA count, was high even when forward and was linking up a lot. Definitely moved up in my rankings but I just don't trust Horse to have any consistency or even that the role will be there. I mean it looked like a pretty much normal midfield rotation so that's promising but as much as I rate Gulden and as much as I know Horse doesn't rate Mills, I just can't see the split holding up.
Rampe/McCartin x2 - Standard roles for them.
Parker - Same old for him, led in CBA from my count, role was good. Relevant if he gets really cheap or DPP again, especially if both!
Edwards - I don't think he plays but was playing as a 2nd ruck/forward, wasn't terrible but would hope he's not rucking in the real stuff.
Roberts - Had a very juicy role, I dare say was helped by no Papley but was high HF/wing/midfield with his minutes and was very solid. 123k MID so would be relevant if he plays early in anything resembling that role. Looked his best when playing midfield which is unfortunately the least likely spot he lands but was very solid and definitely looks AFL ready now.
McInerney - Played a pure wing role, nothing to really note.
Lloyd - Didn't take many kick-ins even without Blakey. Didn't see anything from him to suggest he turns back the clock.
McAndrew - He played really solid footy. Definitely don't expect to see him but played ahead of Hickey and Ladhams, for whatever reason, and held up very nicely against both Brisbane rucks. He also looks AFL ready. Don't expect him to play but Hickey is pretty injury prone and Ladhams can turn a coach off real fast so worth throwing on the watch list this year.
Lions - Were solid for 2 quarters and turned it on in Q3 and Sydney couldn't go with them. They'd be mostly happy with things and had plenty of positives, very strong side to my eye, I'm not sold that anyone but Zorko and Lyons are best 22 (Adams also but might be done) and even Lyons I'm not as certain on.
Missing - Ah Chee, Zorko, Lyons, Adams, Gardiner, Lester, Mathieson and Answerth
Robertson - Played HF, I didn't notice any genuine midfield minutes.
Daniher - Looked really switched on, not sure how to take it but he laid probably the 3 best tackles of the game so there's that...
Dunkley - Just lock him in, pure midfield role and looked great. Wouldn't be at all shocked if he averaged 125 this year.
McCluggage - Also had a really pure midfield role which was interesting, there was some experimenting going on with their wings, which is where his fantasy game goes to die but he was the clear 3rd banana in the mids and he was solid. That interesting guy who is a 115+ type in this role but falls to a 90s type in all the other roles he can and does play. Will watch again next week, I don't think I can do it but it wouldn't shock me at all he heads to premium land, so much talent.
Berry - Pure wing role.
Ashcroft - Just lock him in also, clearly their 4th mid today in role, probably their 2nd mid in output. He's basically a 2nd Lachie Neale out there for them, classy, moves first at stoppages and reads it so clearly, was probably the cleanest by hands at the stoppages and then tackles everything that moves on the rare occasion that someone beats him to the ball. I actually think his skillset and performance is the main reason to not pick McCluggage, basically he wont be needed inside if he keeps this up. Also interesting where Lyons fits in, he basically can already do everything he does and all the things he can't as well. Easy on field rookie choice based on this game and role.
Neale - Picked up a knock early in Q3, he ran it off but definitely wasn't moving as freely after it, not sure if it was ankle or cork but not ideal at his price. On a positive, prior to that and even after it he was racking it up and prior to it was moving great. Pure midfield role. Definitely a strong option but worth watching how he pulls up from whatever it was.
Rich - I think he played pretty sparingly, took all kick-ins while he was out there and same old for him. I got burned last year so not as appealing but he probably deserves more attention as a pick.
McCarthy/Cameron/Hipwood/Gunston - All played the exact roles you would think they did, all played well.
Rayner - Played defense as expected, didn't really do anything of note in a good or bad way, just basically did the job. Took the Heeney matchup for extended stints and did a mostly good job on him. Didn't look out of his depth but also didn't look like he'd found his feet to turn it into a fantasy goldmine either.
Coleman - Role was same as last year, looked good, just not sure where he can find the 20 points he needs, think it's a when Rich is gone proposition right now, otherwise they probably just eat into each other's scores.
Prior - Came on in the 2nd half and went to half back, suggests he's behind in the race to me. Replaced Tunstill to my eye. Tunstill was the better for mine but did get a half compared to a quarter.
Sharp - Same story as Prior, replaced Wilmot as far as I could tell. Definitely feel like there's a battle between all 4. Sharp I think did more than Wilmot but also butchered it so there's that. Sharp has definitely filled out and looks like an AFL player now, one to watch.
McKenna - Role as expected at HB, very few touches and a fair bit of rust on those he had. I didn't notice him being beaten defensively, so that's the positive as locking the job down is the main part. He's cheap enough that even with a few bad games he'll make plenty of cash, it's mostly about locking down the spot. None of the competition was better and I don't think anyone missing really takes his slot except maybe Answerth who never really impressed me last year.
Tunstill - I thought he played very well, I didn't notice him in Q3, albeit the ball was very rarely in their defense, was playing HB and did the job well. I think there's a spot for him but it's a fierce competition and I don't think his JS could be trusted. Looked the goods as far as being able to hold it if he wins it though but at 190k, just needs better JS and scoring potential.
Andrews/Payne - Locked down the KPD spots and both played well. Don't think Buddy got a touch on Payne in Q3 and none of our KPF really had impact in H1.
Fort - Remained a pest in OMc's side, took far too much ruck work and annoying he was there at all. Not a good sign for the real stuff that they persisted with the two rucks thing.
Bailey - Was their other midfielder in a tight unit, was clearly number 5 in the group which makes sense, he's easily the best forward and worst mid in the mix. He played a really good game. I feel like there's a big season in him but I'm too broken by him to try and find it and will just join the masses if it happens.
Starcevich - Same old. Got a bit of it as he can sometimes but nothing else flashed.
Wilmot - Did disturbingly little in his minutes, wasn't a great game for the wings in general as none of them for either side really did much but definitely didn't seize his opportunity, if that's what this was. Positive is neither did Sharp, albeit Sharp found more of it.
McInerney - As mentioned in Fort, his presence is enough to end the dream if it continues. He played ok but you'd want a lot more against a kid and a KP type in the ruck. As someone desperately looking for a ruck to put their hand up all I got was another with an X next to their name unfortunately.
Missing - Ah Chee, Zorko, Lyons, Adams, Gardiner, Lester, Mathieson and Answerth
Robertson - Played HF, I didn't notice any genuine midfield minutes.
Daniher - Looked really switched on, not sure how to take it but he laid probably the 3 best tackles of the game so there's that...
Dunkley - Just lock him in, pure midfield role and looked great. Wouldn't be at all shocked if he averaged 125 this year.
McCluggage - Also had a really pure midfield role which was interesting, there was some experimenting going on with their wings, which is where his fantasy game goes to die but he was the clear 3rd banana in the mids and he was solid. That interesting guy who is a 115+ type in this role but falls to a 90s type in all the other roles he can and does play. Will watch again next week, I don't think I can do it but it wouldn't shock me at all he heads to premium land, so much talent.
Berry - Pure wing role.
Ashcroft - Just lock him in also, clearly their 4th mid today in role, probably their 2nd mid in output. He's basically a 2nd Lachie Neale out there for them, classy, moves first at stoppages and reads it so clearly, was probably the cleanest by hands at the stoppages and then tackles everything that moves on the rare occasion that someone beats him to the ball. I actually think his skillset and performance is the main reason to not pick McCluggage, basically he wont be needed inside if he keeps this up. Also interesting where Lyons fits in, he basically can already do everything he does and all the things he can't as well. Easy on field rookie choice based on this game and role.
Neale - Picked up a knock early in Q3, he ran it off but definitely wasn't moving as freely after it, not sure if it was ankle or cork but not ideal at his price. On a positive, prior to that and even after it he was racking it up and prior to it was moving great. Pure midfield role. Definitely a strong option but worth watching how he pulls up from whatever it was.
Rich - I think he played pretty sparingly, took all kick-ins while he was out there and same old for him. I got burned last year so not as appealing but he probably deserves more attention as a pick.
McCarthy/Cameron/Hipwood/Gunston - All played the exact roles you would think they did, all played well.
Rayner - Played defense as expected, didn't really do anything of note in a good or bad way, just basically did the job. Took the Heeney matchup for extended stints and did a mostly good job on him. Didn't look out of his depth but also didn't look like he'd found his feet to turn it into a fantasy goldmine either.
Coleman - Role was same as last year, looked good, just not sure where he can find the 20 points he needs, think it's a when Rich is gone proposition right now, otherwise they probably just eat into each other's scores.
Prior - Came on in the 2nd half and went to half back, suggests he's behind in the race to me. Replaced Tunstill to my eye. Tunstill was the better for mine but did get a half compared to a quarter.
Sharp - Same story as Prior, replaced Wilmot as far as I could tell. Definitely feel like there's a battle between all 4. Sharp I think did more than Wilmot but also butchered it so there's that. Sharp has definitely filled out and looks like an AFL player now, one to watch.
McKenna - Role as expected at HB, very few touches and a fair bit of rust on those he had. I didn't notice him being beaten defensively, so that's the positive as locking the job down is the main part. He's cheap enough that even with a few bad games he'll make plenty of cash, it's mostly about locking down the spot. None of the competition was better and I don't think anyone missing really takes his slot except maybe Answerth who never really impressed me last year.
Tunstill - I thought he played very well, I didn't notice him in Q3, albeit the ball was very rarely in their defense, was playing HB and did the job well. I think there's a spot for him but it's a fierce competition and I don't think his JS could be trusted. Looked the goods as far as being able to hold it if he wins it though but at 190k, just needs better JS and scoring potential.
Andrews/Payne - Locked down the KPD spots and both played well. Don't think Buddy got a touch on Payne in Q3 and none of our KPF really had impact in H1.
Fort - Remained a pest in OMc's side, took far too much ruck work and annoying he was there at all. Not a good sign for the real stuff that they persisted with the two rucks thing.
Bailey - Was their other midfielder in a tight unit, was clearly number 5 in the group which makes sense, he's easily the best forward and worst mid in the mix. He played a really good game. I feel like there's a big season in him but I'm too broken by him to try and find it and will just join the masses if it happens.
Starcevich - Same old. Got a bit of it as he can sometimes but nothing else flashed.
Wilmot - Did disturbingly little in his minutes, wasn't a great game for the wings in general as none of them for either side really did much but definitely didn't seize his opportunity, if that's what this was. Positive is neither did Sharp, albeit Sharp found more of it.
McInerney - As mentioned in Fort, his presence is enough to end the dream if it continues. He played ok but you'd want a lot more against a kid and a KP type in the ruck. As someone desperately looking for a ruck to put their hand up all I got was another with an X next to their name unfortunately.
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Patience! @wogitalia will share his thoughts once he reviews the games.
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