Analysis 2023 Preseason Games
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Haha didn't have him but based on 1 match sim game each i am now swapping him in for Titch.... lets see what happens in in game 2. To be fair Green's ownership will probably jump up 10% based on that performance. Looking at last year i wonder why he dropped off so hard. Was it a young player getting tired or did his CBA's drop right off? If it is the later that makes him even more of a lock as he's a perma-mid now with hopper and taranto out. i know hopper didn't play much last year.
Adelaide vs Fremantle
General - Watched 3 quarters. Interesting game, Freo started really hard at it and kind of blew the Crows off the park and then didn't really get cracking from that point on and the Crows slowly worked their way to the front. Both playing relatively strong sides and a good hitout overall. One interesting aspect was the CBA variance, the Crows looked like a team who's not really sure who should be in there while the Dockers looked certain, it definitely showed at times.
Crows - Were just a lot harder for longer which probably is a consequence of more competition for spots, especially through the midfield, but also that most of their midfielders are pure grunts and those types tend to tackle whether it's preseason training, a practice match or a grand final! Missing a couple of guys but not many. Real positive of the televised intra-club game last week is this game serves some confirmation purposes.
Missing - Walker, Jones, McHenry and a few even more fringe guys we probably got an answer on what way they're leaning on.
Keays - Played predominantly half forward again, same as last week. I had his CBA count at 2 through 3 quarters. He played as a high HF and pushed up but he's only relevant once he gets FWD this year and even then I'm not sure.
Berry - Started as a pure mid, played whole game there. He finished last year in this role and it's taken all the value out really, if he had managed to hold onto FWD I'd take him this year, reckon he pushes towards a high 90s type average as he finds the ball well and tackles exceptionally.
Crouch - More nuisance than anything, took a few CBA, had him at 5, playing pretty much exclusively from the bench as far as I could tell. Generally if you're in the 2nd group of mids and not playing another position it's a bad sign for your best 22 place. The only saving grace is Laird does go to the bench a lot for a top line mid so there is that one spot to fill.
Thilthorpe - Was interesting that they chose to ruck Himmelberg over him as the backup given that's his logical role in the best 22, probably suggests those two are in a pretty tight battle for that final spot because Walker and Fog are going to be the main two. He's definitely filled out a bit but still very little impact.
Rachele - He started on ball but I didn't see him back much at all after their early blitz, was basically at 4 in the first 10 minutes and I had at 5 for the game. Not trying to read too much into it but seemed he copped the blame for it and the experiment ended. I'd expect he still gets mid minutes in the real stuff but if the role can fade that quickly it's not a great sign.
Sloane/Hinge - Manned the two wings, barely noticed anyone else out there either, they look pretty set for those two spots.
Pedlar - Started forward, did a couple of decent things, I didn't notice him much at all though, not even sure he was playing by Q3. At his price I think he'd need a lot more job security in that role or a much better role with that job security. There are 3 or 4 guys playing the same role, mostly in better sides, that are in the 120k region.
Dawson - He must have had close to 60 DT points in Q2 alone, uncharacteristically he butchered it that quarter so would have had about half that in SC but if he's finding as much ball as he did this game he's going to score huge. Dockers kicked way too straight but I had him taking half the kick-ins from an insignificant data set. He looks primed for a big year, as someone who was pretty locked into a lot of rookie defenders and not sure of the premium options I have to say that the rookies have thoroughly underwhelmed me so far and all of Stewart, Dawson and Docherty have me doubting that position strongly. I don't expect the Crows to be good but they're combative and the ball going forward will be at messy for opposition sides so Dawson could score enormous this year. I thought it was a firm tick for his starting case.
Soligo - Similar role to Keays, high HF pushing into the midfield. Also got some midfield rotations, his CBA numbers are inflated by Q3 where he went into the main group compared to the first half but he was alright.
Hamill - Playing HB, did nothing wrong, did nothing to demand a spot.
Rankine - Pretty pure anchored HF role today, very different to his intra-club role and much more like his GCS role. I had him at 2 CB and rarely sighted him higher than half way. Not a good fantasy role and given his durability, total lack of scoring history and overwhelming inconsistency it was enough for me to cross him off as a starting option. Those who rate him a lot higher might not be as quick as I am to cross him off. What he did was good but not enough of it for mine.
McAdam - Forward again, was solid. Seems to be the selection as the hybrid 4th marking target guy for them so far.
Worrell - I swear I saw him Q1 but it was only once and I didn't see him again so I might be imaging things, either way he obviously did nothing to stand out as a best case and wasn't even in the side as the worst case
Schoenberg - He was their 3rd mid, albeit a wide open spread around him down to about 8th, not sure what happened over last o***eason but he has gone solidly backwards as a player since then. I should note that Rachele started as the third mid but as mentioned he fell out of it really fast. Schoen has basically just become a really poor man's Berry for them, has just failed to find anything he really does at an above average level unfortunately. Like Crouch, he also seemed to be playing from the bench which isn't a great sign. End of the day I'd think one of Crouch or Schoey can play but I don't see how you can play both and if I was the Crows I'd be trying the Rachele/Soligo/Rankine group for a solid 10 weeks to start the season and see if one can stick as all do more than those two.
Murray - I definitely saw him but it wasn't much more than I saw Worrell. He seemed to come on in Q2 as never noticed him in Q1. He also did very little.
Laird - Ticked the boxes. He must have had 5 tackles in Q1, won plenty of clearances, was clean, especially going I50 and just a solid game. I don't think he'd have changed any minds with this game, basically those already on the wagon got what they needed to confirm it, those not on the wagon didn't get a commanding "pick me or die" performance. I'm personally very happy to be on the wagon.
Milera - Same feeling as last week for mine, if he was 250k I'd be picking him and I think he can still do well from his price but there's got to be better options around it for mine. What he did was good but Dawson is the clear #1 and Smith will be the clear #2 in my eyes, so there's just not enough ball in the role for what he needs to score. I don't think he's a terrible pick by any means but I'd be very surprised if he's in the best 4 in that 300-360k range and I don't see how many can take more than that. Certain to get DPP if he plays 5 games though, role seems pretty locked in.
Fogarty - He was brilliant, probably their best for mine. Looks really locked in, he's giving me hope for Braeden Campbell being able to recover from looking like a shellshocked mess to become a really good AFL player as one of the few who looks like doing it. He broke out end of last year but he's gone from strength to strength over the o***eason and another commanding performance. Honestly wouldn't be surprised if he's their top forward by season's end and I'm not expecting it's because Tex falls off. I doubt he's fantasy relevant still, 100k cheaper and I dare say he would be.
Smith - Same old.
Himmelberg - Was the 2nd ruck, that surprised me with TT in the side. Not relevant.
Parnell - I thought he played really well but I rate him and it's probably confirmation bias at play. Thought he soundly outplayed Hamill and even Milera and Smith today. Was very sound defensively and he just looks composed with ball. I've highlighted him because he's cheap enough as a defender to be considered, I don't think he is likely to push high enough but he might. He's basically got the tools to be good. The problem is obviously Dawson, Milera and Smith are going to eat a lot of ball.
Doedee - Same old, no signs of a huge season or role usurping from the captain.
Butts - Got a bath from Taberner in Q1, was really solid from that point on. Not showing any of the rebound of last week, almost like he got told to shelve that!
ROB - I'd be interested to see the stats but it felt like he got annihilated out there. The half dozen or so times he actually got clean hitouts all seemed to go to Dockers players and the rest of the time he was just getting beaten up. Darcy is a quality ruck but ROB needs to show a lot more for mine in that area as it's the spot in the game where he leaks points to genuine premiums and he doesn't do enough other things to make up for it. Basically his next 10 points come from ruck work and to watch him get destroyed doesn't help make a case for picking him.
General - Watched 3 quarters. Interesting game, Freo started really hard at it and kind of blew the Crows off the park and then didn't really get cracking from that point on and the Crows slowly worked their way to the front. Both playing relatively strong sides and a good hitout overall. One interesting aspect was the CBA variance, the Crows looked like a team who's not really sure who should be in there while the Dockers looked certain, it definitely showed at times.
Crows - Were just a lot harder for longer which probably is a consequence of more competition for spots, especially through the midfield, but also that most of their midfielders are pure grunts and those types tend to tackle whether it's preseason training, a practice match or a grand final! Missing a couple of guys but not many. Real positive of the televised intra-club game last week is this game serves some confirmation purposes.
Missing - Walker, Jones, McHenry and a few even more fringe guys we probably got an answer on what way they're leaning on.
Keays - Played predominantly half forward again, same as last week. I had his CBA count at 2 through 3 quarters. He played as a high HF and pushed up but he's only relevant once he gets FWD this year and even then I'm not sure.
Berry - Started as a pure mid, played whole game there. He finished last year in this role and it's taken all the value out really, if he had managed to hold onto FWD I'd take him this year, reckon he pushes towards a high 90s type average as he finds the ball well and tackles exceptionally.
Crouch - More nuisance than anything, took a few CBA, had him at 5, playing pretty much exclusively from the bench as far as I could tell. Generally if you're in the 2nd group of mids and not playing another position it's a bad sign for your best 22 place. The only saving grace is Laird does go to the bench a lot for a top line mid so there is that one spot to fill.
Thilthorpe - Was interesting that they chose to ruck Himmelberg over him as the backup given that's his logical role in the best 22, probably suggests those two are in a pretty tight battle for that final spot because Walker and Fog are going to be the main two. He's definitely filled out a bit but still very little impact.
Rachele - He started on ball but I didn't see him back much at all after their early blitz, was basically at 4 in the first 10 minutes and I had at 5 for the game. Not trying to read too much into it but seemed he copped the blame for it and the experiment ended. I'd expect he still gets mid minutes in the real stuff but if the role can fade that quickly it's not a great sign.
Sloane/Hinge - Manned the two wings, barely noticed anyone else out there either, they look pretty set for those two spots.
Pedlar - Started forward, did a couple of decent things, I didn't notice him much at all though, not even sure he was playing by Q3. At his price I think he'd need a lot more job security in that role or a much better role with that job security. There are 3 or 4 guys playing the same role, mostly in better sides, that are in the 120k region.
Dawson - He must have had close to 60 DT points in Q2 alone, uncharacteristically he butchered it that quarter so would have had about half that in SC but if he's finding as much ball as he did this game he's going to score huge. Dockers kicked way too straight but I had him taking half the kick-ins from an insignificant data set. He looks primed for a big year, as someone who was pretty locked into a lot of rookie defenders and not sure of the premium options I have to say that the rookies have thoroughly underwhelmed me so far and all of Stewart, Dawson and Docherty have me doubting that position strongly. I don't expect the Crows to be good but they're combative and the ball going forward will be at messy for opposition sides so Dawson could score enormous this year. I thought it was a firm tick for his starting case.
Soligo - Similar role to Keays, high HF pushing into the midfield. Also got some midfield rotations, his CBA numbers are inflated by Q3 where he went into the main group compared to the first half but he was alright.
Hamill - Playing HB, did nothing wrong, did nothing to demand a spot.
Rankine - Pretty pure anchored HF role today, very different to his intra-club role and much more like his GCS role. I had him at 2 CB and rarely sighted him higher than half way. Not a good fantasy role and given his durability, total lack of scoring history and overwhelming inconsistency it was enough for me to cross him off as a starting option. Those who rate him a lot higher might not be as quick as I am to cross him off. What he did was good but not enough of it for mine.
McAdam - Forward again, was solid. Seems to be the selection as the hybrid 4th marking target guy for them so far.
Worrell - I swear I saw him Q1 but it was only once and I didn't see him again so I might be imaging things, either way he obviously did nothing to stand out as a best case and wasn't even in the side as the worst case
Schoenberg - He was their 3rd mid, albeit a wide open spread around him down to about 8th, not sure what happened over last o***eason but he has gone solidly backwards as a player since then. I should note that Rachele started as the third mid but as mentioned he fell out of it really fast. Schoen has basically just become a really poor man's Berry for them, has just failed to find anything he really does at an above average level unfortunately. Like Crouch, he also seemed to be playing from the bench which isn't a great sign. End of the day I'd think one of Crouch or Schoey can play but I don't see how you can play both and if I was the Crows I'd be trying the Rachele/Soligo/Rankine group for a solid 10 weeks to start the season and see if one can stick as all do more than those two.
Murray - I definitely saw him but it wasn't much more than I saw Worrell. He seemed to come on in Q2 as never noticed him in Q1. He also did very little.
Laird - Ticked the boxes. He must have had 5 tackles in Q1, won plenty of clearances, was clean, especially going I50 and just a solid game. I don't think he'd have changed any minds with this game, basically those already on the wagon got what they needed to confirm it, those not on the wagon didn't get a commanding "pick me or die" performance. I'm personally very happy to be on the wagon.
Milera - Same feeling as last week for mine, if he was 250k I'd be picking him and I think he can still do well from his price but there's got to be better options around it for mine. What he did was good but Dawson is the clear #1 and Smith will be the clear #2 in my eyes, so there's just not enough ball in the role for what he needs to score. I don't think he's a terrible pick by any means but I'd be very surprised if he's in the best 4 in that 300-360k range and I don't see how many can take more than that. Certain to get DPP if he plays 5 games though, role seems pretty locked in.
Fogarty - He was brilliant, probably their best for mine. Looks really locked in, he's giving me hope for Braeden Campbell being able to recover from looking like a shellshocked mess to become a really good AFL player as one of the few who looks like doing it. He broke out end of last year but he's gone from strength to strength over the o***eason and another commanding performance. Honestly wouldn't be surprised if he's their top forward by season's end and I'm not expecting it's because Tex falls off. I doubt he's fantasy relevant still, 100k cheaper and I dare say he would be.
Smith - Same old.
Himmelberg - Was the 2nd ruck, that surprised me with TT in the side. Not relevant.
Parnell - I thought he played really well but I rate him and it's probably confirmation bias at play. Thought he soundly outplayed Hamill and even Milera and Smith today. Was very sound defensively and he just looks composed with ball. I've highlighted him because he's cheap enough as a defender to be considered, I don't think he is likely to push high enough but he might. He's basically got the tools to be good. The problem is obviously Dawson, Milera and Smith are going to eat a lot of ball.
Doedee - Same old, no signs of a huge season or role usurping from the captain.
Butts - Got a bath from Taberner in Q1, was really solid from that point on. Not showing any of the rebound of last week, almost like he got told to shelve that!
ROB - I'd be interested to see the stats but it felt like he got annihilated out there. The half dozen or so times he actually got clean hitouts all seemed to go to Dockers players and the rest of the time he was just getting beaten up. Darcy is a quality ruck but ROB needs to show a lot more for mine in that area as it's the spot in the game where he leaks points to genuine premiums and he doesn't do enough other things to make up for it. Basically his next 10 points come from ruck work and to watch him get destroyed doesn't help make a case for picking him.