Analysis 2023 Preseason Games

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Geelong vs Brisbane

General - Watched 3 quarters. Such a stark contrast between this game and the Hawks/Pies game, just a totally different sport and so much better to watch when there's some bruises involved! Cats missing a lot of players, Lions at almost full strength, it wasn't as uneven as the scoreboard either. Good solid hitout with solid indicators of the players involved.

Lions - Was interesting to see them playing such a "slingshot" style of footy, went a heavy defensive flood and then rebounded with speed, particularly interesting because they were so slow out of defensive 50 the last couple of years and it's definitely a big change. Lot of things looking good for them.

Robertson - Played a wing, rotating 3 younger guys through the wings so be interesting to see who wins it and if any of the senior guys will play there at all.

Daniher - He was brilliant, pushing very high up the ground and was 2nd ruck in the first quarter which is more important for OMc than Daniher. Looks set for a big year.

Dunkley - Looked every bit as good as his final score. If anyone can unseat him as the top scoring forward they've had a ripping season or he got injured! Looks primed for a huge season. Will be interesting next year as a pure mid option as think he should push towards 120 this year.

McCluggage - I can't help but be tempted. Again played a pretty pure inside midfield role which he's historically pushed towards the 120 range in also, he's clearly their 3rd mid right now and I don't see who unseats him from that. Not sure where Lyons is at and Zorko will be out a bit and they're the obvious names to look at but Clug is so much more consistently impactful inside so he really should stay, especially if the kids can hold down the wing.

Ashcroft - Was rock solid, his first half score of 37 is most indicative of role/scoring, imo. He played HF with midfield stints in the first half, went into a pure on ball role in the 2nd half and lifted his scoring rate as a result. He's an automatic selection and should be on field, if he plays that role in season he'll even pick up FWD, not that I think that's as useful as it normally would be with us probably needing the midfield rookies more. Should be one of the last rookies upgraded based on junior and preseason evidence.

Neale - Looked to have no ill-effects from either of his injuries last week and was at his glorious best, just taking it easy on his way to a nice ton. He looks cherry ripe also.

Rich - Same old role for him, I think there might be too many chefs this year down back but he should be the top chef.

McCarthy/Cameron/Gunston/Hipwood - All playing forward as expected, Hipwood picked up a big cork and was subbed, he was also 2nd ruck in Q2, again only relevant for OMc.

Rayner - Playing defense, he was actually good early but faded a fair bit, showed plenty though and could be a sneaky good option in draft leagues.

Prior - Was one of 3 young guys rotating through the wings, I'd say he was the most impressive of the three but it wasn't a landslide and he started in 3rd place.

McKenna - Played HB, was really solid, didn't score great but will have games where he scores much better, especially where they get held up and kick sideways a bit more as he was working to space well and finding some dangerous spots, just wasn't needed because Cats were letting them over the top a lot. Looks a solid rookie option, ideally you'd loop him but he's fieldable in a pinch and probably in the top half of rookies on that criteria.

Tunstill - Played a really good game at HF, sure looked like Zorko's role, probably a good sign for the more relevant Wilmot as he had the role that appears available right now as opposed to the one a former captain and star player will almost certainly fill but he played well.

Andrews - He was outstanding, don't think I could pick a KPD but he's underpriced by a lot and wouldn't be a terrible place holding starter type if you were looking for one.

Fort - He only came on after Hipwood went off and then took a decent chunk of the ruck work, looks like they want to go one ruck. IMO that's a much better structure for them.

Bailey - Was the 5th midfielder, got some CBA work. He was solid, definitely scored better than I expected but reckon the DT score was closer to his game and probably his season projection. Ashcroft just looks a better midfielder and then Zorko and Lyons fit in somewhere which says to me he'll get squeezed back into last year's role.

Starce/Payne - Roles as expected, didn't see Payne's injury so can't comment but he was having a great game prior to that.

Wilmot - Role was strong, scoring was not. Found some decent spots but wasn't used, similar to McKenna, he'll have better games where they use the shorter options more but wasn't on in this one. I've seen nothing to suggest he's much more than a strong bench option outside his role and that he gets to good spots in it. I actually think he's a potential on-field guy but he sure hasn't showcased it! Has to get picked obviously and will be one of the sub options I daresay if he is.

OMc - Really poor scoring outing but everything else about his game was good if anyone is looking his way. Hard to pick him after that obviously but the role/structure was what you want in the main part of the game. Tough sell though for an unproven guy who isn't that underpriced despite the Fort issue last year.
 
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Cats - Much better than the scoreboard, definitely missing that Cameron/Hawkins factor, they actually locked the ball in their F50 and I daresay if they'd had Hawk to ruck they'd have kicked bags from it, instead they had Danger wasting everyone's time playing pretends up there. Were good out of the middle and some good signs. The amount of times they got wiped over the back will definitely be a concern, seemed too easy for the Lions for the most part. No Blicavs basically a strong explanation though, effectively lost half their field coverage without him.

Stanley/Ceglar - Split ruck duties, neither really demanded the spot.

Tuohy - Played wing, was solid, took a couple of kick-ins when he was in the area, stock standard.

Parfitt - Strong midfield role with forward stints in 1st half, I didn't notice him in Q3 but wasn't watching as closely that quarter or for him in general.

Bruhn - Very good role, started HF and then pushed on ball for large stints. Hard to gauge how much is Danger not playing a lot of midfield time and how much is Bruhn being a preferred option. He definitely put his hand up, thought his DT would be better to be honest. God he's an unlikeable player though, has a face like Jake Melksham that you just want to punch, loves to Selwood for free kicks and has that Toby Greene arrogant twat prance about him as well, I dare say he's going to be the Cats player that opposition fans love to hate now that Selwood has exited a throne he's held since basically day dot! Very strong fantasy option though as most of that stuff is a positive for SC :LOL:

Holmes - Pure wing role today from what I saw, I didn't have a single CBA for him. Needs that role, imo but looked good otherwise. Score was about on par with eye test, maybe slightly better even.

Whyte - Looked really solid after coming on in Q3, looks very close to getting games physically and skill wise, might take an injury or two but one to watch if he breaks in, took kick-ins after he came on.

SDK/Kolo/Bews/Zuthrie - All playing defense and roles as expected, SDK went forward in Q3 again, I dare say just learning versatility for now.

Ratugolea - Hard to judge this one, his positioning behind the ball and intercept work was excellent, thought he'd scored much better to be honest (joys of KPD I guess), used it fairly well to my eye also. Negative is that he gave Daniher a lot of leg-rope and that was used quite often to get linking ball and then kick it over the top to dangerous spots. Needs to find the balance better between intercept and stopping his man. His intercept skills are actually really strong so far though. He'll have games where he scores poorly but he's also going to have games where he scores very well. Definitely a bench type for mine though ideally. Not dissimilar to SDK/McCartin/Gibcus last year.

Stengle/Myers/Close - Same old for them, look the clear preferred options for the small forward roles.

Dempsey - Played at HF, he's obviously close to their best 22 to start this game but I can't help but feel like he's the very first to go out for a long list of names not playing. He did some nice things though.

Guthrie - Really solid game, didn't really look to get out of 2nd gear and still a good score and strong game. Role was excellent. He's a sneaky good option at his price.

Atkins - Really strong role in the first half, I had him 2nd on CBA for them and role was pretty pure midfield, albeit defensive sweeper role which is very Blicavs like and wouldn't surprise me if he makes way a bit for him. He did plenty of nice things and was just rock solid. I reckon those on the cliff here would probably have liked a bit more before jumping but he's definitely one of the best options in his price range, doesn't mean it will work but he ticks more boxes than just about anyone else, imo.

Danger - Lot of time forward, has lost a half step and was getting caught or tugged a fair bit by guys you wouldn't expect to be able to reach him. Not for mine, although he will make a bit of cash and probably get FWD so not an awful pick.

Henry - Forward, played poorly. Will struggle to hold his spot when Cameron and Hawkins are both back, imo, basically battling Rohan who was much better tonight.

Simpson - Was interesting to see him play, he was alright but not great and probably needed to be great with the names they've got out.

O'Connor - In defense, was solid.

Stewart - Was brilliant as usual, just cut off so much play. There's lots of reasons to not start him but he definitely gave several to pick him tonight. Like Sicily, I'd bet he's within +/- 5 points of his starting price at season's end and a top liner. Looked great.

Lot of key Cats out tonight in Cameron, Smith, Bowes, Duncan, Hawkins, Menegola, J. Henry and Blicavs who could all be best 22 when available and drastically change things. Blicavs and Duncan in particular will change things.
 
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Don’t think anyone could pick Lycett after that performance. He looked terrible, Darcy gave him an absolute bath. Dixon looked more competitive against Darcy. Port have a real conundrum with their ruck situation, it will be interesting to see which way they go.
 
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What are peoples thoughts on Young after todays game?
Let's coach in style, let's coach for a while
40,000th can wait, we're only watching this guy
Hoping for the best, but expecting the worst
Is he gonna drop a 79 or not?

Let us ragequit in week 5 or let us play forever
We don't have a true def premo, but we never say never
Sitting at the PC, 2023's a short trip
Fantasy football's for the sad man

Can you imagine when this game is won?
Turn our golden faces into the sun
Condemning Champion Data, we're getting screwed
The scores must be worked out by a madman

For Hayden Young, don't wanna go
For Hayden Young
Do you really wanna go for Hayden?
For Hayden?
For Hayden?

For Hayden Young, don't wanna go
For Hayden Young
Do you really wanna go for Hayden?
For Hayden?
For Hayden?
 
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Don’t think anyone could pick Lycett after that performance. He looked terrible, Darcy gave him an absolute bath. Dixon looked more competitive against Darcy. Port have a real conundrum with their ruck situation, it will be interesting to see which way they go.
They may aswell just run Finlayson, will get smashed in the Ruck whoever they go with but at least hes strong around the ground.
 
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Let's coach in style, let's coach for a while
40,000th can wait, we're only watching this guy
Hoping for the best, but expecting the worst
Is he gonna drop a 79 or not?

Let us ragequit in week 5 or let us play forever
We don't have a true def premo, but we never say never
Sitting at the PC, 2023's a short trip
Fantasy football's for the sad man

Can you imagine when this game is won?
Turn our golden faces into the sun
Condemning Champion Data, we're getting screwed
The scores must be worked out by a madman

For Hayden Young, don't wanna go
For Hayden Young
Do you really wanna go for Hayden?
For Hayden?
For Hayden?

For Hayden Young, don't wanna go
For Hayden Young
Do you really wanna go for Hayden?
For Hayden?
For Hayden?
Sung to the tune of....?
 
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How many midpricers is too many? Yeo and Hopper are basically locks. To include a 3rd in the Bruhn/Ziebell/Fyfe/Worpel range you pretty much have to drop down to 11 true premiums. Going to be hard to squeeze all the right players in.
I think you can have 11 premiums with 3 of them and 10 premiums with 5 of those players. Premium includes Green, Daicos etc as they are keepers in your side, however, premium numbers and quality will vary a bit if you decide to fade them.

$200k to $600k outside of Yeo seems like a complete dead zone this season. Was really hoping to get Coffield.
Whaaaattttt? I am GnR person and the area in between looks richer than ever before.

Richards?
460K - big finish to last year, Daniel out of the backline now
This to me has always been the dead zone, trying to pick a $400-500k breakout defender. Always failed. Sicily was an injured premium and Hewett had a change of role to mids and had scoring history at the Swans as a mid, question was would he be used as a tagger.
 
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12 actual premiums, or are we counting guys like Daicos/Green/Cameron/Cunnington as "premiums"?
Arbitrarily anyone over 500k + has been a premium year on year out.

500k + is premium
250-500k is mid price
<250k is a rookie / returning injured player.

Doesn’t really matter who it is, premium is defined by the price you pay for them (a premium).
 
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Had 14 just wasnt any good
Cheers, AFL app had listed zero when I checked.


Richards?
460K - big finish to last year, Daniel out of the backline now
Correlation does not equal causation, but by my calcs:
With Duryea in the team - 13 @76
Without Duryea in the team - 7 @101*

*Ignoring the injury sub game
 
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How many midpricers is too many? Yeo and Hopper are basically locks. To include a 3rd in the Bruhn/Ziebell/Fyfe/Worpel range you pretty much have to drop down to 11 true premiums. Going to be hard to squeeze all the right players in.
If you're worried about squeezing in 3, maybe I should be terrified about currently owning 5 and trying to find room for number 6.
 
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