So have gone through my annual process of rating the rookies, tweaked it a bit this year but same basic system...
Essentially I give my personal projection, this is generally on the "things go right" end of things, which I then compare to their starting price, generally anything above 30 is very good, anything above 20 is pretty decent option, especially if they show some kind of spike scoring ability.
Alongside this I table their job security and their scoring potential, the potential is more their ceiling than expected score, so guys I think can produce in the 70+ range from their starting price would get a 10 here, those I think aren't very likely to go big rank lower. Job security is basically a 5 out of 10 indicates they're a chance to play, 10 is for injury is their only obstacle, most will be 3 or better here because I've already filtered those who aren't at all likely, it's also somewhat forward looking, McVee for example would be a 7.5 for round one but is a 2 because I doubt he plays when Salem is back.
By position (DPP are in DEF/FWD in that order), will do my top 10 for each. With a brief explanation.
I've set the rookie cutoff at 280k, this is much higher than most will use but there were several very important guys that I look at purely as cash generators that I wanted to fit in.
DEF
1. Constable - Has my highest variance between projected and starting and highest scoring potential given role and propensity to seek the pill. Long term JS is his issue but has a few weeks most likely to cement a best 22 spot and do his job for us.
2. C. McKenna - Proven scoring history bumps his projection certainty and has solid job security and scoring potential.
3. Li. Jones - I have a couple with higher projection gaps but he's got the 10 for JS and has a very high ceiling for price spikes.
4. Ginbey - JS is probably more about the vest right now, he looks the goods but scoring projection unsighted is always more unreliable.
5. Bowes - I think his JS will be good if he's fit for round one, elite scoring potential especially for spike scores separates him but will likely be relying on it.
6. Crozier - Assuming he's fit, dislocated finger normally minor but can be severe also, proven scoring potential again a big helper.
7. Goater - Scoring potential is hard to rate, job security is among the better here.
8. Cole - Job security again the strength as well as some proven scoring to bank on.
9. Chesser - I think he'll play early but probably cop his share of vests, is going to take a while to make cash most likely
10. Cowan/Cincotta - Only one looks likely, whoever loses will be breathing down the neck but possession and laws. They're cheaper than the next two, so ahead but I think all 4 are similar prospects.
11. Wilmot/Fahey - They tied for mine, if they're playing round one I think they're both pretty equal prospects.
Others included Darcy, La. Jones, Perez, Parnell, Stocker and McKenzie (scoring gap issues) and then the McVee, Michalanney, Weddle, Young and Bergman group with job security issues. Coffield is the wild card.
MID
1. Ashcroft - I think some of the others have higher projection gaps but he's got JS and a big ceiling.
2. Mackenzie - Hard to project but such a talentless midfield and he was brilliant, showing serious scoring ability.
3. Callaghan - Basically just needs so many more points at his price but JS and scoring potential both very high.
4. Phillips - Job security strong again, scoring potential is good in his role, also cheaper.
5. Baker - Job security falls off rapidly in this group, he's cheaper than most of the group and has good scoring potential. JS his issue but should get a shot after his game.
6. O'Halloran - Role was great, no one obviously missing to change it, there's always a bolter with new coach, this is the point where a lot of the DPP guys are better, imo.
7. Duursma - Most wouldn't be looking here I'm sure, but he's averaged 74 multiple times and with Amon gone there's a spot to be had. (I didn't see his latest game but numbers are even better than I projected). It's his spot to lose which is ahead of the rest where they need to get a spot.
8. Hollands - He shoots up a bit here if he wins the job as he should score well in it but will be an all or nothing choice because he either kills it or is out of the side.
9. Culley - Has to win a spot, has to score amazing, not for mine after his preseason, durability an early question.
10. C. Stephens - The fact he's even here says it all about this group. Same as Mackenzie basically, any team that's playing Worpel as a main midfielder has multiple openings for a guy like him to slot into and he'll score well. Don't pick him
Bytel the best of the rest but I don't see him playing with a decent role, they had multiple guys out and it still took an injury. Hustwaite, Johnson, Roberts, Wardlaw, Green, Tunstill and Clark I can't see playing, the last two the most likely but roles will be temporary.
FWD
Honestly, there's so many options here I'm going to list my top 10 and then I'm just naming everyone else I considered as I think they're all roughly equal and it's basically a decision between JS, scoring potential and price for who you prefer, issues in order in the (). Honestly from 4 onward I think they're all much of a muchness, which should make it chaotic and fun.
1. McLean - He's scored well in every role he's played, his JS is better than most and he's cheaper than basically everyone who beats him on either criteria.
2. Sheezel - He's hard because he's got multiple roles and they're very different, if they go with the "get him near the ball" approach he's probably first. I think he plays as many games as possible and they will largely get him near the ball.
3. Allen - Job security is important, he has the best of anyone. More of a spike score pick than a reliable push.
4. Flanders - His job security looks sound, his role is questionable but he scored well in his likely role, difficult though.
5. Greene - Job security should be good, can play but the role is pretty terrible in a bad side. Like Allen, spike score chasing.
6. Ratugolea - JS is an issue, scoring could be also, his R/F adds a lot of value though, imo, as he can save trades for injury/suspension in the rucks.
7. King - JS is just better than anyone else and at this point you're chasing spike scorers, Suns a much better side than when he last played and he has a lot more help up forward.
8. Phillipou - Not too different to Sheezel only in a team that will at least be trying to win early on and will select and play as such. They lack class though so should get chances and can play.
9. Ugle-Hagan - I'm actually very bullish on him, will get the 3rd best defender, even 4th at times, dominant midfielder and should be free to roam where he can use his size as an outlet target. He's a spike score play though still but think he can push towards 70 as an average.
10. Windhager - Hard to judge him, scoring is the big question, especially if tagging but JS looks really good and his role has potential above others.
Davey (JS/scoring), Humphrey (JS), Sturt (JS), Berry (scoring/JS), Stone (JS/scoring), Chandler (JS/scoring), A. Jones (JS/scoring), Bruce (JS), Menzie (JS/scoring), Caminiti (scoring/JS), Clarke (price/JS), Walla (Fitness/scoring/price), Henry (price/scoring/JS), Davies (price/scoring/JS), Fantasia (price), Owens (price/scoring), Pedlar (price/scoring) and Comben (scoring)
