Strategy 2023: Round 2 Trades

[Brettthejett]

lol, Laird is like a Bricky, doesn't like to work if it's too hot, too cold, too windy or if there is a smudge on his jumper!

I resent this statement, I don’t like to work at all 😂

 

[Montyjnr]

Thank you - I may need to ponder this further.

The way I’m thinking about it at this stage, if we use one boost ahead of R3, it delays one upgrade from R10 to R11. Let’s say it’s a 50 point upgrade, so that costs us 50 points.

My gut feel is that I can make a 50 point better decision if I trade in R3 than R2 … it’s equivalent to about 2.5 points per round, or $13k in cash terms, which both seem pretty manageable with the benefit of expanding out sample size (arguably doubling it in the case of a new coach, or a Bruhn type at a new club/rookie on debut).

Those differences could potentially be achievable in identifying which of the c. $500k defenders is going to be the slightly better scorer, getting a comparable scorer $13k cheaper, having a week to see which of your mid pricers have the worst role or possibly even get injured between the R2 and R3 cuto***, etc.

I’m a fan of using the boosts aggressively in upgrade season though. I suspect it may be almost a requirement this year.

I saw this tweet from last year's winner that I found interesting.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1637609271889383424

It sounds like he won the 50K boosting Rounds 2, 3 & 4 before upgrade season?

 

[Vicwood]

I've finally caught up on this thread after being in the fetal position for the best part of 48 hours, so I wanted to touch on some of the Daicos tag chat. (Just another supporter opinion, don't have any inside info).

A couple of things make me bullish on Daicos when it comes to tags:
1) One key thing I've noticed watching the Pies live compared to watching on TV is the sheer amount of gut running Daicos does. This checks out - he is frequently in the top 5 on the GPS tracker during games, and was top of Pies time trial this pre-season. He is an endurance beast, and when you see him on the TV it's easy to come to the conclusion he is receiving a cheap touch, when the reality is he's more often than not busted a gut to get that cheap touch. This isn't to say he is untaggable, but the number of players in the league that could match that output to make the tag effective is perhaps lower than most are suggesting. In theory this means the number of times this season he is kept to a 70ish is lowered.
2) Perhaps starting to get into some Marbo territory here, but as far as his character goes he comes across as someone who is conscious of the fact that talent alone won't be enough to have a successful AFL career and he needs to work on his craft constantly (maybe helps having a high performance dad). We often talk about season-to-season improvement for younger players, but in Pendles and Titch he has two excellent mentors who will be feeding him advice on how to deal with and break tags, and I think as long as Daicos takes that opportunity to learn the capacity for him to improve as the season goes on is quite high.

I'm sure I write the above with a good whack of rose tint in my glasses but take it as you will.

The kid is really good and heading towards greatness as an AFL Player. Has had a hard off season returning stronger with improved endurance and i want to tear my team apart to get him in as D3.

Only avenue to #35 is Laird to LDU and Fyfe to Sheezel and i can just squeeze #35 in.

After a poor start i want to have at least one Magpie in my line up.

 

[Old Big 'Ead]

The kid is really good and heading towards greatness as an AFL Player. Has had a hard off season returning stronger with improved endurance and i want to tear my team apart to get him in as D3.

Only avenue to #35 is Laird to LDU and Fyfe to Sheezel and i can just squeeze #35 in.

After a poor start i want to have at least one Magpie in my line up.

Can I ask why you feel you need to trade Laird out? One bad game doesn't mean he won't finish in top 2-3 midfielders?

I can understand Fyfe - I am contemplating that myself, but am reluctant, given Fremantle play NM and WCE in the next 2 games, but I cannot understand why anyone would trade Laird out?

Daicos is a good player, but wouldn't you want to see how he goes against PA and a possible tag first?

 

[Vicwood]

What about Coniglio (BE 60) who will have greater presence in the midfield with GWS injuries and provide a forward link?

Yes COGS a better trade as you know he will be top 6 FWD at years end, Mitchell due to a great last 1/4 just did enough, but i cannot see Titch being top 10 MID by years end.

 

[Vicwood]

Is Sheezel a must have?

How many games will North win this year?
How many times will he come up against a side like West Coast?

People worry about N Daicos being tagged off half back but not the same worry with Sheezel and Ziebell?

3 of the 4 North players to score 100+ supercoach point were half backs, Sheezel, Ziebell and McDonald.

My view on Sheezel is that he is a watch with 2 points:
- How will he cope with harder teams?
- How will he fit in if Hall comes back in?

At HB Role yes. The kid played like it was his 100th game. Then Rd 6 you can move him into the DEF line. Will not score 100 every week but i expect close to 80+ avg.

 

[Vicwood]

Can I ask why you feel you need to trade Laird out? One bad game doesn't mean he won't finish in top 2-3 midfielders?

I can understand Fyfe - I am contemplating that myself, but am reluctant, given Fremantle play NM and WCE in the next 2 games, but I cannot understand why anyone would trade Laird out?

Daicos is a good player, but wouldn't you want to see how he goes against PA and a possible tag first?

Talk of a tag RD1 didnt happen. Drew will try to handcuff DeGoey who goes to #35.?

 

[Russty_]

Really struggling this week to determine who to trade, and how many. Trying to be conscious of not just jumping on bandwagons and trying to maintain a POD where I can. Possible players up for trade include

- Day (was a POD, but got 22 possessions with 8 CBA's and 73% DE, and still only managed 60) - so I think he just has to go
- Jones - As long as he is named, I think I will play him, with all jumping off him, and playing against the Saints
- Laird - Definitely no trade there
- Flanders - Up against the Bombers in Melbourne - just don't think he will get enough of the ball
- Fyfe - As pointed out on this thread, it would be silly to trade him out when I got him for his easy draw. Just have to hope that Fremantle change the way they play this week.

At this stage, I think Day and Flanders are the most likely candidates to go. I just don't want to go for Daicos, JHF, Ziebell, etc. Have Sheezel, Ginbey, Constable, Callaghan etc

Hoping someone can assist with what they think from the above is worth getting rid of. Cheers

I agree on Day and Flanders, I have Day but not Flanders, don't know how much cash you have left but who would you replace Day with?
Not sure if you mostly play for overall ranking or Leagues but you could give them both another week to see if they score better.
If you could afford Day to Young or Rioli, they're both pods and could serve you well. Young is an elite ball user and so cool with his decisions.
I've also got Fyfe but will have one more look at him, (he'd better redeem himself this week or he's gone).
I think when we pick guys like Jones and Fyfe, we hope they'll go well but the truth is, they're both in the twilight of their careers and Fyfe has been injury prone for several years now, it was a bit of a gamble.
At least there are guys in the price range to replace him with eg JHF, Ziebell, if JHF explodes this year and you don't have him you could get left behind points-wise.
I was thinking of going conservative with trades to start the season but think I'd actually prefer to go hard early to correct mistakes now and get the right people into my side and then take a few weeks off with the trading.

 

[Vicwood]

Re: Laird
To play in 35-40 degrees not only affected his performance on the day, but I think it will also make harder his recovering for the next game.

Cogs 143
Green 134

Slaone Rocelle Keays all ran through MID at times. Different stye of play from the Crows in RD1. Rory will hemerage cash if below 100pts this week. RD2 you need to best Rookies. At this time i am only missing Sheezel. BYe Fyfe

Rory can blame the heat if he wants to, but it was the same for every one else. It will be a big call to FLIP trade to LDU this early.?

 

[Old Big 'Ead]

Talk of a tag RD1 didnt happen. Drew will try to handcuff DeGoey who goes to #35.?

PA have said that they will be looking at it.

Don't know who will tag him - Don't know the PA side well enough, but he won't be allowed to run around like he did against Geelong. If I am wrong, I'll hop on in Rd 3, but don't trade Laird out to get him - IMO, that is going backwards

 

[Backbone]

Will give him another week to see if he’s worth buying but anyone else thinking of fielding Philips at m8 in the future now he’s shown that 65 on the weekend? Or still too much risk of the sub? I’m shattered he went so well after having him all pre season and moving over to Hollands

 

[Old Big 'Ead]

I agree on Day and Flanders, I have Day but not Flanders, don't know how much cash you have left but who would you replace Day with?
Not sure if you mostly play for overall ranking or Leagues but you could give them both another week to see if they score better.
If you could afford Day to Young or Rioli, they're both pods and could serve you well. Young is an elite ball user and so cool with his decisions.
I've also got Fyfe but will have one more look at him, (he'd better redeem himself this week or he's gone).
I think when we pick guys like Jones and Fyfe, we hope they'll go well but the truth is, they're both in the twilight of their careers and Fyfe has been injury prone for several years now, it was a bit of a gamble.
At least there are guys in the price range to replace him with eg JHF, Ziebell, if JHF explodes this year and you don't have him you could get left behind points-wise.
I was thinking of going conservative with trades to start the season but think I'd actually prefer to go hard early to correct mistakes now and get the right people into my side and then take a few weeks off with the trading.

Thanks for the feedback Russty.

Think I am going to give Day another go. Callaghan, on the other hand I might trade.

Thing I cannot understand re Day is the following - how did he score 60 last week, when he scored 91 in Rd 23 last season with very similar stats. He even had a Goal Assist last week as well??

 

[Russty_]

Thanks for the feedback Russty.

Think I am going to give Day another go. Callaghan, on the other hand I might trade.

Thing I cannot understand re Day is the following - how did he score 60 last week, when he scored 91 in Rd 23 last season with very similar stats. He even had a Goal Assist last week as well??

View attachment 54365

That is a bit baffling isn't it?....maybe a different team of people from SC watching the games and adding up the points?
Those stats look like those 2 scores should be reverse, 91 for last week's game and 60 for last year's round 23 game.

 

[Vicwood]

Can I ask why you feel you need to trade Laird out? One bad game doesn't mean he won't finish in top 2-3 midfielders?

I can understand Fyfe - I am contemplating that myself, but am reluctant, given Fremantle play NM and WCE in the next 2 games, but I cannot understand why anyone would trade Laird out?

Daicos is a good player, but wouldn't you want to see how he goes against PA and a possible tag first?

I Watch the Crows game again and believe Crows will run different structures around stoppages. Forget CBA laird will still have a high count. If Laird goes under 100pts this week will hemerage cash which i dont want this early in the year. I am miles behind the leaders and need to make some calculated changes without upsetting struture. Thinking LDU looks stronger and faster on his feet this year and allows #35 to move into D3

Fyfe was a player i really didnt want, originally had Bruhn but got doubts when Parfitt named on the bench. JHF was considered but went with Fyfe due to ownership. Fyfe Sheezel this week.

#35 is that good and plays for the PIES and i want himm in my team. Watching the game live ii did think he had a 150pt game.

This year i trading hard ealry, watch the cows fatten round 3 to 7 then trade hard again leading up to the bye rounds then burn the 3 remaining boosts.

Good Luck

 

[Shannon]

Looking at going Kelly > Cogs, not sure on anything else yet till teams drop. Cogs looks a top 6 fwd for sure, role was perfect on Sunday & looks set for a big year - Kelly's role was great (ball use surprisingly wasn't in the first half) but I do worry about the long term effects of his concussion/ giants have a great early draw so getting his teammate really appeals. Getting Cogs essentially sets my fwd line up long term (possibly 5 fwd premiums if Gulden continues on his trajectory + the best fwd rookie who can be fielded with his half back role) along with my rucks so can focus my trading on the mids & defence (expect for any injuries).

Current team :-



Prefer to give Bruhn another week, I have real concerns especially with Bowes now in the team. If he fails to fire then a flip to Worpel next week (same price almost) & moving Cogs into the fwd line is on the cards.

Jones is just a wait & see - Have a look at Cowan's score tonight, then see if Jones is playing. If he doesn't & Cowan scores poorly then I might have to sideways him to Tom Cole.

Flanders is another big watch, junked hard to get 64 - certainly a trade option next week if another low score.

Open to suggestions

 

[Goodie's Guns]

Thanks for the feedback Russty.

Think I am going to give Day another go. Callaghan, on the other hand I might trade.

Thing I cannot understand re Day is the following - how did he score 60 last week, when he scored 91 in Rd 23 last season with very similar stats. He even had a Goal Assist last week as well??

View attachment 54365

Three turnovers vs. six, and only two contested possessions (20 uncontested) vs. 9 contested (12 uncontested. Tighter game in Rd 23 last year, so touch of scaling adjustment probably goes in his favour there, compared to the complete blowout over the weekend.

60 feels a touch harsh for the stat line, but the above helps identify where the differences come from.

 

[Brookesy]

Talk of a tag RD1 didnt happen. Drew will try to handcuff DeGoey who goes to #35.?

I'd say Lachie Jones is quite likely, but might not make the cut with Boak back, so possibly SPP.

 

[Crowls]

The kid is really good and heading towards greatness as an AFL Player. Has had a hard off season returning stronger with improved endurance and i want to tear my team apart to get him in as D3.

Only avenue to #35 is Laird to LDU and Fyfe to Sheezel and i can just squeeze #35 in

After a poor start i want to have at least one Magpie in my line up.

Even a Daicos is probably one wood too many.....
From a bombers supporter who had to be dragged kicking and screaming to put Riddler back in when Yeo failed to start!

 

[Vicwood]

I'd say Lachie Jones is quite likely, but might not make the cut with Boak back, so possibly SPP.

Does SPP have the engine to keep up with #35.?

 

[Vicwood]

Even a Daicos is probably one wood too many.....
From a bombers supporter who had to be dragged kicking and screaming to put Riddler back in when Yeo failed to start!

Well look at you the Bombers get up over a bttom 4 team and you have visions of the flag this year.

CARN THE PIES.