Strategy 2023: Round 4 Trades

[Brookesy]

Agree, but the risk is huge! I am so torn about whether to trade him or give him another chance. His BE is so high and I think LDU is less riskier and more consistent for the value he can return compared to JHF.

I agree and don't want to convince you either way, because if I didn't think that English is a much better ruck option than Grundy I would probably trade JHF to LDU, but the 45 v the Pies cycles out after next week and he scored 93 v Sydney at the SCG for North in Round 4 last year.

 

[Darkie]

Poll added!

 

[HoleyFrijole$]

I agree and don't want to convince you either way, because if I didn't think that English is a much better ruck option than Grundy I would probably trade JHF to LDU, but the 45 v the Pies cycles out after next week and he scored 93 v Sydney at the SCG for North in Round 4 last year.

I too brought in JHF after round 1. Am considering trading him to Phillips this week (if he is picked), which provides heaps of cash and puts Mackenzie or chandler on the field….but I’m also worried the week I move him on he goes huge. He killed it in round 1, was horrible in round 2, and was on track for a really good score in round 3 before fading. I almost hope Phillips gets dropped to avoid the decision.

 

[stephen]

Gladly. This is my untouched side from the end of R3 View attachment 55157

Good advice already given and I agree this is a team that could benefit from a boost. I haven't don't proper calculations but I think Anderson, Rowell, Cameron can become Oliver, LDU, Hopper? I'd do that.

 

[Vicwood]

Is the rank the sole or key reasoning for the “crazy moves” and is it relevant at this early stage of the season?

Cash Generation. After my 50K ranking i need cash. Get PREMO MID Upgrades ASAP to make up for slow start.

Gulden BE 88 next few weeks not much growth expected. He was sort of a holding pick in the FWD line but with Sheezel pumping out hundreds i am confident with Sheezel at F4.

LDU Is expected to make 60K next 3 weeks and could be a cheap keeper option. LDU Slots into M5 with targets of Touk Neale and Millls to complete the midfield.

Hopper Cash Generation. Concern is Knee complaint this early in the season.
Setters just looks real good, missed the first price rise is my concern.
Day was in and out of the team before RD1 but now could be another oppertunty for a cash grab and gets me closer to Stewart.

At this time

Callaghan - Phillips/ BYtel/ Hewett ??
Gulden - LDU

 

[XabiFernando]

Still not sure what to do about DC this week.

I faded English for Darcy at the start of the season on the basis of durability more than anything else, so after 3 rounds I'm still a bit reluctant to bring him in for that reason (especially at a higher price). On the flipside, if he stays injury free he will clearly be top 2 even if he reverts to the mean a bit.

Witts is a little bit uninspiring, also carries injury risk (maybe less than English) but also doesn't have any notable upside.

Grundy is value, especially v WC this week, but it just feels like a kick the can down the road and locking in a future ruck trade even if he makes say 100k.

Darcy I'm staying away from, I accept he put up a big score on the weekend but that was against a very weak WC and if that's his best case I think I can live with staying away.

Nank looks like slotting into that bronze medal spot in the rucks, and the only reason I'm considering him is because Witts/English would require a second trade.

The most likely second trade would be Worpel to Phillips/Rowston, but I'm not that bearish on Worpel given the role is still there and the BE still achievable. The upside to the second trade is that it gets McKenzie back on field for me (currently at M9) so maybe fixes some structural issues.

 

[mike89]

Too late to grab Long or still value there?

 

[Monya Meow Meow]

Too late to grab Long or still value there?

Also wondering this myself, in case Phillips does not get named or is the sub

 

[Bermi]

2 unforced trades this week. This is un Professor like, but, I'm on the lookout to improve my team and onfield points.

Out - Pedlar 1 game suspension, Gulden
In - Caminiti cash gen and Oliver.

I don't like chasing points, nor trading out uninjured players. Gulden to Oliver gives me 25 points plus per week and will be a top 5 mid. I may get Gulden back later in the season in my forwards. Pedlar missing 1 game provides the downgrade to get Oliver and ride the cash that Caminiti brings.

The Professor awakes.

View: https://youtu.be/JZRAtIKMmRs

 

[Zimmer]

Have only done one trade so far: Cameron to English. Can't see any others I need to make, but feel as though I need to be a bit more aggressive to climb back from a poor start. Then again, that poor start was mostly bad luck. Any suggestions:

 

[GrainFedBeef]

Have DC, Bruhn, Worpel and Callaghan to work with. Missed Chandler last week. Had Stewart, Gawn, DC, Jones, Fyfe impacts along the way.

Option 1
DarcyC to English
Bruhn to Chandler
Callaghan to Amartey

Option 2

DarcyC to Grundy
Worpel to Josh Kelly/LDU (both look good)
Bruhn to Chandler

Option 3
DarcyC to English
Worpel to LDU
Bruhn to Jacob Van Royen

Doc Daicos Stocker Ginbey Jones Mckenna (Cowan/Constable)

Oliver Bont Green Setterfield Worpel Hopper Ashcroft Mackenzie (Callghan, Baker, Hollands)

DC Marshall (Esava)

Dunkley Taranto Rozee Ziebell Sheezel Bruhn (Pou/FGreene)

 

[aj74]

Cant agree with you there @aj74…whats your logic based on for Oliver?
only went below 100 three times last year….( two of those with the impacted hand after the cats game)..

has a Breakeven of 111…might get down to $650k at worst….…would you really want to wait for that and miss the points as well?

My post did reference it being a matter of how much he punishes non-owners before dropping that game, which actually happened 4 times last year.

It is incredibly difficult to have a 130ppg average. I'll go out on a limb and say that nobody has ever made 135ppg for the year which would suggest that he has the weigh of history against him keeping up his current average.

Remember how Laird has amazing consistency and never puts in a stinker? (sorry to bring it up again) Well Clarry has the more volatile scoring. He will put in some poor scores and at his current price, "poor" is probably anything under 115 as that is 20 points below what you paid for. He did that 6 times last year and 8 times the year before. These will drag down his price.

Obviously, he beat that average by a fair bit a number of times too. So that's the gamble. Will he drop points and cash before he goes on his next tear? (Round 4 last year, round 3 in 2021).

No doubt he's a keeper. He's gotten better every year he's played to date and he's just entering prime age for a midfielder. There is every chance that he goes even better this year than last, breaking records as he goes. But we are getting into uncharted waters now as far as him and supercoach scoring goes. And yes, records are made to be broken but I don't like the idea of dropping 700k on that happening when there's plenty of other places for me to spend my cash that don't require a record breaking run to pay out.

Last year he failed to make 100 4 times and he missed a game as well. I understand that injury played a part in that but that's footy. Everybody has an injury risk. So that's 5 times you were getting significant unders for your spend. Same in 2021. I didn't bother checking 2020 because hub life made everything weird and before that was too long ago. He's not infallible. Even Ablett Junior dropped some stinkers

 

[stephen]

Have only done one trade so far: Cameron to English. Can't see any others I need to make, but feel as though I need to be a bit more aggressive to climb back from a poor start. Then again, that poor start was mostly bad luck. Any suggestions:

Team looks good. Structure's right. I wouldn't do another trade.

 

[jaca]

Increasingly tempted to hold Callaghan another week. Only real options for him are 1) a sub risk player and 2) a rookie taken early..

 

[HoleyFrijole$]

My post did reference it being a matter of how much he punishes non-owners before dropping that game, which actually happened 4 times last year.

It is incredibly difficult to have a 130ppg average. I'll go out on a limb and say that nobody has ever made 135ppg for the year which would suggest that he has the weigh of history against him keeping up his current average.

Remember how Laird has amazing consistency and never puts in a stinker? (sorry to bring it up again) Well Clarry has the more volatile scoring. He will put in some poor scores and at his current price, "poor" is probably anything under 115 as that is 20 points below what you paid for. He did that 6 times last year and 8 times the year before. These will drag down his price.

Obviously, he beat that average by a fair bit a number of times too. So that's the gamble. Will he drop points and cash before he goes on his next tear? (Round 4 last year, round 3 in 2021).

No doubt he's a keeper. He's gotten better every year he's played to date and he's just entering prime age for a midfielder. There is every chance that he goes even better this year than last, breaking records as he goes. But we are getting into uncharted waters now as far as him and supercoach scoring goes. And yes, records are made to be broken but I don't like the idea of dropping 700k on that happening when there's plenty of other places for me to spend my cash that don't require a record breaking run to pay out.

Last year he failed to make 100 4 times and he missed a game as well. I understand that injury played a part in that but that's footy. Everybody has an injury risk. So that's 5 times you were getting significant unders for your spend. Same in 2021. I didn't bother checking 2020 because hub life made everything weird and before that was too long ago. He's not infallible. Even Ablett Junior dropped some stinkers

Ablett Jnr averages:

2009: 140.1 from 19
2012: 138.1 from 20
2014: 136.6 from 15

So it has been done!

Oliver is also not your average player, is only 25 and already has 4 B&F, 2 AFLCA Awards and a Premiership. Ablett at the same point of his career had 1 B&F, 2 AFLCA Awards, 2 MVPs and a Premiership.

I'm not saying Oliver is going to become Ablett, but his trajectory is not that far behind, and it was year 8 that saw him breach 135 for the first time.

NB I don't have Ablett averages for his first 4 years...

 

[stephen]

Ablett Jnr averages:

2009: 140.1 from 19
2012: 138.1 from 20
2014: 136.6 from 15

So it has been done!

Oliver is also not your average player, is only 25 and already has 4 B&F, 2 AFLCA Awards and a Premiership. Ablett at the same point of his career had 1 B&F, 2 AFLCA Awards, 2 MVPs and a Premiership.

I'm not saying Oliver is going to become Ablett, but his trajectory is not that far behind, and it was year 8 that saw him breach 135 for the first time.

NB I don't have Ablett averages for his first 4 years...

View attachment 55168

Great post. Fundamentally I agree with @aj74 that there's no point chasing a 700k player as they will inevitably fall in price because even a 120 is a below-par score in value terms. But we shouldn't underestimate the extent to which Oliver's career has been freakish so far.

 

[Connoisseur]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1642389203219779584

 

[Snowman]

Ablett Jnr at his best was the superior player but when it comes to SC Oliver is the GOAT

 

[whiteTiga2k]

English and klandler vs Oscar and Day?

Bringing in day means I stop playing Cowan.

 

[MacBomb23]

Hey all first time posting here, been loving the insights and discussion the last few weeks.

This trade decision isnt getting easier so thought I'd get some views.

Happy with my structure but have Bruhn still in my forward line which I need out this week. I dont have enough cash to go straight Bruhn to Ziebell or another forward option so need to make some cash.

Cash options

Merrett -> LDU or DeGoey
McGrath -> Day

Then upgrade Bruhn to Ziebell. My gut isnt happy with Ziebell there's just few options until you get up to Gulden which stretches past my available cash.

Any thoughts would be great. Cheers