Strategy 2023: Round 4 Trades

[chopsticks]

Considering 4 options at the moment to get me the extra cash to get Cameron > English.

Chesser > Young - Get rid of one bad rookie but probably just bringing in another?

Fergus Greene > VanRooyen - Trading a slow burn rookie before he reaches his peak & requires me to go a week early on JVR

Davey Jnr > Rowston - Again trading a rookie before they've peaked, but Rowston has potential to score well.

Liam Jones > Phillips/Bytel/Rowston/Long - Hesitant to trade Jones with a -ve breakeven but gives me a chance to get a good rookie and cash for English.

Any thoughts SC Scores?

 

[Brookesy]

You make a solid point re JHF's 45 dropping off. This is similar to Jones' 5 dropping off after Rd 3, so I might hold this week.

So I might go

Callghan > Rookie
Goulden > LDU/Kelly/Saad/Dawson/Sicily ??

Goulden's CBA's dropped last week, and Mills' rose, and he has not scored well against his next 2 opponents.

Which Rookie? Amartey/Phillips (if he appears to playing)/Rowsten/Michalanney/Long. Already have Chandler.

At this stage, I am leaning to a LDU or Saad, with Amartey as the rookie. Thoughts?

I think that between Gulden and JHF I would fade JHF. While Amartey should score well against Port's undersized backline I am unsure of his long term job security. If Phillips is named this week alongside LDU and Simpkin he's hard to pass. Long and Michalaney appear to have good job security and decent scoring despite the price rise.

Is 'Old Big 'Ead' a Brian Clough reference?

 

[xanderdom]

More than fine to disagree with the advice, by saying why. With how close things are at the top having Oliver x2 over the next month could make a huge difference. So while I have bont and won't entertain that move, doing it does have its appeal and isn't insulting to have the idea thrown around

100% agree with this. Pre-apologies for getting defensive here, but the people who think going sideways to bring Clarry in now is "unfathomable", "pointless", 9 times out of 10 already have him on field.

Yes, historically he has below par scoring against WCE and chances are it's likely his TOG will decrease against them this week. But I don't see how his price goes below $670k at BEST rest of season. People who already have him now have a distinct advantage over the rest of the comp. An advantage that will be very difficult to catch up on if I play the long game.

I'm going with my gut on:
Neale > Clarry
Cameron > English
Callaghan > T.Young

I'm ranked >77,000. I have 29 trades. I've got all the right cash cows. And great structure for the bye rounds. Stuff it.

 

[OnTopBar]

Considering 4 options at the moment to get me the extra cash to get Cameron > English.

Chesser > Young - Get rid of one bad rookie but probably just bringing in another?

Fergus Greene > VanRooyen - Trading a slow burn rookie before he reaches his peak & requires me to go a week early on JVR

Davey Jnr > Rowston - Again trading a rookie before they've peaked, but Rowston has potential to score well.

Liam Jones > Phillips/Bytel/Rowston/Long - Hesitant to trade Jones with a -ve breakeven but gives me a chance to get a good rookie and cash for English.

Any thoughts SC Scores?

I'll probably get howled down for this, plus I'm coming last in everything, but I'd be inclined to go early on Van Rooyen, yes he had a great 1st up game and I wouldn't expect him to kick 3 goals/week, he did have 5 tackles though so that should underpin his scoring. You do lose the cash gen of Greene for a week but JVR would probably overtake him. The fact that both teams are poles apart would have some bearing on scoring too. If you were already planning on trading Greene > JVR then going early to get your preferred player is probably ok, notwithstanding the inherent risk in doing so.

*Edit.....this is under the assumption that trading Jones would lead to fielding Cowan?

 

[Old Big 'Ead]

I think that between Gulden and JHF I would fade JHF. While Amartey should score well against Port's undersized backline I am unsure of his long term job security. If Phillips is named this week alongside LDU and Simpkin he's hard to pass. Long and Michalaney appear to have good job security and decent scoring despite the price rise.

Is 'Old Big 'Ead' a Brian Clough reference?

Apparently Amartey has pretty good JS. At this stage I am giving JHF one more game and if it doesn't work out, then I'll fade him for Pickett depending on how Pickett goes this week with Viney playing.

Yes, OBE refers to Cloughy. Took Forest to the greatest triumphs of all during his tenure. Only wish he was there now to help Cooper

 

[Chumpion]

More than fine to disagree with the advice, by saying why. With how close things are at the top having Oliver x2 over the next month could make a huge difference. So while I have bont and won't entertain that move, doing it does have its appeal and isn't insulting to have the idea thrown around

100% agree with this. Pre-apologies for getting defensive here, but the people who think going sideways to bring Clarry in now is "unfathomable", "pointless", 9 times out of 10 already have him on field.

Yes, historically he has below par scoring against WCE and chances are it's likely his TOG will decrease against them this week. But I don't see how his price goes below $670k at BEST rest of season. People who already have him now have a distinct advantage over the rest of the comp. An advantage that will be very difficult to catch up on if I play the long game.

I'm going with my gut on:
Neale > Clarry
Cameron > English
Callaghan > T.Young

I'm ranked >79,000. I have 29 trades. I've got all the right cash cows. And great structure for the bye rounds. Stuff it.

Just throwing my 2 cents in here, but isn't the point of some of the threads on this site to get a wide ranging set of opinions? Yeah some may not like all the options, but the great thing is they don't have to actually do them - but for others, that outside the box thinking can be great.

Wasn't there a famous move by Dimmawitts (I think and apologies about the name spelling as I think that's wrong) where he traded out Cloke who was dominating at a time everyone was breaking their team to get him in? If we only went with the popular safe opinions, that stuf wouldn't happen.

And for the record, at the time I still wouldn't have had the balls to pull that trigger, but doesn't mean it shouldn't be shared and discussed!

 

[donnybuang]

Considering 4 options at the moment to get me the extra cash to get Cameron > English.

Chesser > Young - Get rid of one bad rookie but probably just bringing in another?

Fergus Greene > VanRooyen - Trading a slow burn rookie before he reaches his peak & requires me to go a week early on JVR

Davey Jnr > Rowston - Again trading a rookie before they've peaked, but Rowston has potential to score well.

Liam Jones > Phillips/Bytel/Rowston/Long - Hesitant to trade Jones with a -ve breakeven but gives me a chance to get a good rookie and cash for English.

Any thoughts SC Scores?

I'll probably get howled down for this, plus I'm coming last in everything, but I'd be inclined to go early on Van Rooyen, yes he had a great 1st up game and I wouldn't expect him to kick 3 goals/week, he did have 5 tackles though so that should underpin his scoring. You do lose the cash gen of Greene for a week but JVR would probably overtake him. The fact that both teams are poles apart would have some bearing on scoring too. If you were already planning on trading Greene > JVR then going early to get your preferred player is probably ok, notwithstanding the inherent risk in doing so.

I agree, it's the best of those options. I don't like any of the options as stand alone trades, but if you're he'll Bent on getting English, that's the best way to do it.

 

[Chumpion]

I'll probably get howled down for this, plus I'm coming last in everything, but I'd be inclined to go early on Van Rooyen, yes he had a great 1st up game and I wouldn't expect him to kick 3 goals/week, he did have 5 tackles though so that should underpin his scoring. You do lose the cash gen of Greene for a week but JVR would probably overtake him. The fact that both teams are poles apart would have some bearing on scoring too. If you were already planning on trading Greene > JVR then going early to get your preferred player is probably ok, notwithstanding the inherent risk in doing so.

Personally I think this move has merit, but only if you are planning on playing JVR on field (and would have had to play Greene if you didn't trade) or if you have plans for next weeks trades that mean you need to go early.

Rookies can be fickle, so I don't love the idea of going early for the sake of it only to have JVR ride the pine or unused trades next week. Greene has had a few "almost" games so the spike potential is there, and JVR isn't even guaranteed a third game so it's a bit of unnecessary risk unless there is a strong necessity.

 

[Brookesy]

Apparently Amartey has pretty good JS. At this stage I am giving JHF one more game and if it doesn't work out, then I'll fade him for Pickett depending on how Pickett goes this week with Viney playing.

Yes, OBE refers to Cloughy. Took Forest to the greatest triumphs of all during his tenure. Only wish he was there now to help Cooper

I thought so, was a superb manager in his day. My dad is a Forest fan, one of my earliest memories is of him leaping off the couch and accidentally smashing the the lamp fitting when Forest won the European Cup for the first time.

 

[OnTopBar]

Personally I think this move has merit, but only if you are planning on playing JVR on field (and would have had to play Greene if you didn't trade) or if you have plans for next weeks trades that mean you need to go early.

Rookies can be fickle, so I don't love the idea of going early for the sake of it only to have JVR ride the pine or unused trades next week. Greene has had a few "almost" games so the spike potential is there, and JVR isn't even guaranteed a third game so it's a bit of unnecessary risk unless there is a strong necessity.

I'm interested to know your reasoning about the difference between fielding JVR or having him on the pine? Only reason I ask is that I'm considering doing the same (on the pine for me) to get my preferred players in and respect your opinion.

 

[Old Big 'Ead]

I thought so, was a superb manager in his day. My dad is a Forest fan, one of my earliest memories is of him leaping off the couch and accidentally smashing the the lamp fitting when Forest won the European Cup for the first time.

Yes, what he did, will never happen again.

Get promoted from Div 2, then win Div 1, then Champions League 2 years running - all back to back. Didn't start following Forest until late 80's when Psycho was captain of the club. Wish I did see the European Cup triumphs though.

 

[Johnsy44]

Very much considering Cogs and Callaghan for Clarry and JVR/Brockman. Thoughts?

 

[Chumpion]

I'm interested to know your reasoning about the difference between fielding JVR or having him on the pine? Only reason I ask is that I'm considering doing the same (on the pine for me) to get my preferred players in and respect your opinion.

To me it's probably a case of risk - going early on a rookie does increase the risk of a dead weight player clogging up a bench spot, and being fwd only JVR doesn't have much appeal as a donut or use via DPP swing. Getting him on field this week (favourable match up) vs playing a guy like Green could have a 30-40 point boost that sways things a little, but I'm not a massive fan of trading a guy that is playing (and playing well enough) for a guy who may or may not have the same JS and could revert to a similar scoring profile to Green, only for both to be riding the pine.

So I'd be looking to free up the cash with a more optimal trade in if possible, or via a different trade out, and then wait to see what JVR's prospects look like in a week.

If it's the only pathway to the right premo trade in it's certainly not a terrible option - and dare I say it'll be a popular one - but could create some future headaches is all.

 

[Miller is a Steele]

Was going to hold off until next week but should I do Callaghan to Pickett this week?

Goodwin has come out and said he will continue to get midfield minutes. He has WC this week and could feast.

 

[Ben's Beasts]

Was going to hold off until next week but should I do Callaghan to Pickett this week?

Goodwin has come out and said he will continue to get midfield minutes. He has WC this week and could feast.

I guess it depends on how you view Pickett. Are you picking him expecting him to be a keeper or a cash cow? That first round performance and his SC score were immense but that score is gone now and it’s unlikely he replicates it for the remainder of the season.

He is projected to go up a very handy 44k after this week but the following week he is projected to go up by just 3k. So after that initial price jump, he may not have much more cash to make.

Of course if you feel as though he can average 100+ from here then jump on but be warned it will likely be a wild ride.

 

[Shannon]

Very much considering Cogs and Callaghan for Clarry and JVR/Brockman. Thoughts?

Cogs played 3 games at Marvel last year for these scores :-

174, 106 & 116

Last 6 games v Essendon :-

106,114, 102,154,138 & 111

As frustrating as last week was, I am holding - still think he is a top 6 fwd this year.

 

[Eagling]

100% agree with this. Pre-apologies for getting defensive here, but the people who think going sideways to bring Clarry in now is "unfathomable", "pointless", 9 times out of 10 already have him on field.

Yes, historically he has below par scoring against WCE and chances are it's likely his TOG will decrease against them this week. But I don't see how his price goes below $670k at BEST rest of season. People who already have him now have a distinct advantage over the rest of the comp. An advantage that will be very difficult to catch up on if I play the long game.

I'm going with my gut on:
Neale > Clarry
Cameron > English
Callaghan > T.Young

I'm ranked >77,000. I have 29 trades. I've got all the right cash cows. And great structure for the bye rounds. Stuff it.

I will say that I don't have Clarry, I'd love to have Clarry, and I'm giving this advice. If you had an injured player, or two absolutely nothing picks you were splitting into Clarry, then you're only really worrying about Clarry dropping a low score, and when. Sure, there are safer routes, but this strategy is understandable.

When you're ripping up your structure to get in a guy at $700k by trading perfectly serviceable or better players, that's when alarm bells start ringing. Everything has to go right for these moves to work.

 

[Shannon]

With Melb playing a depleted WCE team on Sunday, is this a game where the demons experiment with Oliver at half back like we saw in the last preseason game? Long season, dees will want to manage his loads throughout the year & are mindful of how they ran out of gas at the end of the season last year. Played v 3 of the expected stronger teams so far this year so no real surprise he has been in the middle a lot but this week offers a real chance to look after him... just a thought (full disclosure - this is coming from a non Oliver owner )

 

[Feerits Elf]

With Melb playing a depleted WCE team on Sunday, is this a game where the demons experiment with Oliver at half back like we saw in the last preseason game? Long season, dees will want to manage his loads throughout the year & are mindful of how they ran out of gas at the end of the season last year. Played v 3 of the expected stronger teams so far this year so no real surprise he has been in the middle a lot but this week offers a real chance to look after him... just a thought (full disclosure - this is coming from a non Oliver owner )

Oliver owner

I think when it comes to trading in a player around $700k I don't think you can play the fixtures like that. You'd have to be picking him to be in the top 2 in his position and a captaincy option every week. You're basically picking him to be the best player in the comp for the year. He might drop 89 against WCE because of Goodwin playing about with roles - but that's not likely. By the same token they might keep a good thing going and play him on the ball where he drops 189 - but neither is that likely. What's most likely is that he scores 135.

Watching Oliver on the basis of him playing WCE feels more like hope than anything based on sound logic or probability.

 

[I am Cursed :(]

Chesser > Young
Gulden > Van Rooyen
Callaghan > Laird

I feel like I'm trading for the sake of it because I've only used 2 so far and have avoided basically all of the injury concerns!! I'm carrying Docherty and Brayshaw, but both are getting plenty of the pill so hoping to end up with a couple of high scoring PODs.

Gulden is the one... He had a ripper pre season, and is averaging high as a forward, but I'm a bit meh about keeping him or trading him so again looking for a POD.

I can afford any midfielder, Laird feels like the one after dumping 40k...

In short - giving up a decent mid pricer for an uber premium.. but open to thoughts! Here is my team, ranked around 7k, scored 2,279 last week.