Strategy 2023: Round 5 Trades

[Locky27]

Man I have to check my BEs more closely. Didn't know Setters was up to 97 already. (Edit: it's actually 85)

I'm going by the breakevens on tooserious, as I don't have SC gold

 

[quite ironic]

Don’t really get the love for Day. At 454k he needs to be a keeper or at worst a sideways on his bye (RD 14). I can’t see him averaging any higher than 100 from here. Am I missing something?

Playing pure inside mid last 2 weeks, averaging 114. Was everywhere inside and out on the weekend in an 80pt loss.

23 centre bounce attendances, more than any other Hawk.

If he maintains that role which it looks like he will with how good he's been he looks a clear 100+ player and probably top 6-8 defender outside of the 2 game suspension.

 

[quite ironic]

Doc -> Dawson
Jones -> Michalanney
Boost:
Davey -> JVR

Leaves team as:

 

[stephen]

Buying Michalanney at 244 looks a bad move to me. Needs to average almost 80 to be an unequivocal success. A 50 or under this week and he's instantly in the sell pile again.

 

[quite ironic]

Buying Michalanney at 244 looks a bad move to me. Needs to average almost 80 to be an unequivocal success. A 50 or under this week and he's instantly in the sell pile again.

2 x 65 would make 85k though. That's very good cash gen and may tie in perfectly with an upgrade to a fallen Stewart, Sinclair or Will Day back from suspension.

Also plays Carlton + Hawks next 2 games.

Carlton just conceeded quite a few points to Sheezel, Ziebell etc last round.
Hawthorn have been leaking points to defenders consistently too: Ridley, Redman, Lloyd, Blakey, Sheezel, Duncan. Z.Guthrie all had 100+ against them.

 

[Feerits Elf]

Who writes these anyway

Same types who think it’s fine and dandy to say you bought someone in

 

[HoleyFrijole$]

Doc -> Dawson
Jones -> Michalanney
Boost:
Davey -> JVR

Leaves team as:

View attachment 55461

I am also going Doch to Dawson
and will bring in van Rooyen for Phillipou
I have Jones, but would prefer to wait a week for Ziebell to become a defender option

 

[stephen]

2 x 65 would make 85k though. That's very good cash gen and may tie in perfectly with an upgrade to a fallen Stewart, Sinclair or Will Day back from suspension.

Also plays Carlton + Hawks next 2 games.

Carlton just conceeded quite a few points to Sheezel, Ziebell etc last round.
Hawthorn have been leaking points to defenders consistently too: Ridley, Redman, Lloyd, Blakey, Sheezel, Duncan. Z.Guthrie all had 100+ against them.

I guess so, but if Jones scores a few 65s he's making another 50k as well, so it's not 85k versus nothing. Seems a fairly low upside to be aiming for with a high chance of it being a wasted trade and boost

 

[elzorko16]

I'm going by the breakevens on tooserious, as I don't have SC gold

The b/e's on Footywire are accurate, Too serious not so !

 

[HoleyFrijole$]

I guess so, but if Jones scores a few 65s he's making another 50k as well, so it's not 85k versus nothing. Seems a fairly low upside to be aiming for with a high chance of it being a wasted trade and boost

Michalanney is a gun and could produce a couple of 80's...but it's a high risk move

 

[inwhiterooms]

Thanks for all of the replies to my late night trade idea, feel like I've landed on something a little nicer. Thoughts?

Hopper / Young / Ridley > JVR / Dawson / Stewart

 

[inwhiterooms]

I guess so, but if Jones scores a few 65s he's making another 50k as well, so it's not 85k versus nothing. Seems a fairly low upside to be aiming for with a high chance of it being a wasted trade and boost

Jones has shown he can pump out a random big score as well. Agree, feels like a move with high chance of blowing up.

 

[tso]

Just going to do Doc to Gull now.
Don't want to use an extra trade for no-one else.
Already have Dawgs, Naicos and Day.

 

[quite ironic]

I guess so, but if Jones scores a few 65s he's making another 50k as well, so it's not 85k versus nothing. Seems a fairly low upside to be aiming for with a high chance of it being a wasted trade and boost

Jones wouldn't make 50k with 2 x 65 i wouldn't think. Would be more like 15k. His breakeven is 36 this week with a 68 dropping out and 45 staying in after this week. So a 65 would see him make maybe 8k and have a breakeven of 55 next week.

There's currently 80 points difference in their breakevens with next week Jones 45 still in his 3 round rolling price average and Michalanney a 103 in his 3 round rolling price average too.

So if they score the same Michalanney will make at least 60k more than Jones does.

Same score this week = 40k difference in price movement and likely 20-30k again next week.

If he scores any higher than Jones it could be a 100k difference.

 

[Montyjnr]

Is it time to move Setterfield on? 97 BE. Hard to see a spike game in the next 3 weeks with opponents Melbourne, Collingwood & Geelong.

Setterfield's breakeven is 85, not 97.

I like his role and thought he was unlucky to not go 100+ on the weekend. Potential for improvement as well once his corked quad heals.

Bit of an upgrade for the sake of an upgrade for mine - he still averages more than Laird!

Would rather move worse options off field first.

 

[Miller is a Steele]

Probably not going to do it myself, but one to put out there: Tom Barrass.

With no McGovern he could go 100+ for just 480k.
Last year his average without McGovern in the side was 103. He has the round 14 bye and has a low BE of just 49. He is an alternative for those looking at Duncan, Lloyd, Baker, Redman types and I think he outscores them.

 

[stephen]

Jones wouldn't make 50k with 2 x 65 i wouldn't think. Would be more like 15k. His breakeven is 36 this week with a 68 dropping out and 45 staying in after this week. So a 65 would see him make maybe 8k and have a breakeven of 55 next week.

There's currently 80 points difference in their breakevens with next week Jones 45 still in his 3 round rolling price average and Michalanney a 103 in his 3 round rolling price average too.

So if they score the same Michalanney will make at least 60k more than Jones does.

Same score this week = 40k difference in price movement and likely 20-30k again next week.

If he scores any higher than Jones it could be a 100k difference.

This is where I think too much focus on BEs can lead you astray. If they both posted 65s from here they would both trend towards 325k or so. Michalanney gets there faster because of the spike score, but it's what they score from here that makes the real difference. Both high variance defenders. Michalanney more of an unknown. No doubt it could work but still seems dodgy to me.

 

[Montyjnr]

Thanks for all of the replies to my late night trade idea, feel like I've landed on something a little nicer. Thoughts?

Hopper / Young / Ridley > JVR / Dawson / Stewart

View attachment 55464

I would be hesitant to get rid of Hopper in your situation given it pushes you into fielding Mackenzie, Baker & Phillips M6-M8.

Ideally only one of those midfield rookies is on field at best.

 

[Peter56]

Michalanney is a gun and could produce a couple of 80's...but it's a high risk move

He is taking Dawson's role in defence when Dawson moves into the midfield, so long as Dawson keeps playing like that Michalanney should keep scoring well 🤞

 

[inwhiterooms]

I would be hesitant to get rid of Hopper in your situation given it pushes you into fielding Mackenzie, Baker & Phillips M6-M8.

Ideally only one of those midfield rookies is on field at best.

Yep, agreed. Doesn't feel a great sell. Back to the trade machine I go!

Really need to find 60k to be able to do Young > Stewart. Unfortunately Davey > JVR leaves me 5k short :/