Strategy 2023: Round 6 Trades

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Currently ranked 41k, not going to sit around and hope Ridley turns out OK.

Ridley, Baker, Chandler 4 Neale, Williams, Roberts

Leaves 136k for next week.

Daicos, Ziebell, Gibney, McKenna, Wilmont (Cowan, Constable)
Oliver, Neale, Petracca, Bontempelli, LDU, Rozee, Hopper, Ashcroft (Long, Chesser, Roberts)
Darcy, Marshall (Madden)
Dunkley, Taranto, Gulden, JHF, Sheezel, Rategulea (Van Rooyen, Williams)

Probably means I have to get Day as a cheap DEF 'keeper' next week.

Dawson, Laird, English the big omissions.
What about...

Baker > Roberts
Chandler > Williams
Long > Coniglio

Then you have 2 premiums (Ridley & Coniglio) on field instead of 1 premium (Neale) & Wilmot...
 
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Am I missing something, isn't this the time of year you should upgrade and downgrade rookies and buy premiums that have FALLEN in price, rather than increased?? That way you gain an advantage over other teams who paid more for them?
This is exactly why selling Sicily now at $555k (154 BE) before he drops to $480k for Touk makes sense to me. It's only a matter of time before Touk takes a Jordan Dawson type of leap. Call me crazy.
 

THCLT

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This is exactly why selling Sicily now at $555k (154 BE) before he drops to $480k for Touk makes sense to me. It's only a matter of time before Touk takes a Jordan Dawson type of leap. Call me crazy.
Crazy but I've been known to do crazier things so don't mind me.
 
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Is it a must to use three trades this week to go one up two down?
I am thinking of only going the two trades this week Roberts and Williams which would give me bank next week to use the three trades to go two up and one down.
Are we really into upgrade season?
Yeah upgrade season officially starts this week.

Mackenzie > Van Rooyen was a popular trade last week which generated 140K.

Doing Baker > Roberts & Chandler > Williams generates another 277K creating a total bank of 417K.

You could then use that 417K to turn Caminiti into Coniglio and still have 162K leftover to turn Ginbey into Day next week.

It is then possible to do McKenna > Seamus Mitchell and boost to get Ashcroft > Sicily next week on top of the Day trade.

3 new premiums in Round 6 & 7.
 
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I'm interested in when "main upgrade season" starts and ends and how many rookies/MPs you or others are expecting to go into and come out of it with both on field and on the bench. Can you or others expand on that?
Not as experienced as others here, but my approach is going to be just plugging those lower scoring rookie spots as best as possible. Currently have Ziebell, Setterfield and Hopper as MPs, two of which that I’m planning on keeping medium-long term (maybe past the bye period if I’m lucky with injuries/suspension).

I was fortunate in round 4 I could swing an ‘upgrade’ of bont through a mid pricer and higher priced rookie I wasn’t happy with. However, I wouldn’t call that the beginning of upgrade season, as not enough cash had been generated.

In an ideal world, this and next round are the beginning of the upgrade season, through to around round 16-18 depending on how lucky or unlucky you are with cash gen (or even how aggressive you are with trades).

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With my team (have reset planned trades for explanation purposes), I’m hoping to carry the premiums I currently have (12 currently if you count Ridley :ROFLMAO:) plus ziebell and Sheezel through for as long as I can (unless scoring or injury hurts my team). Hopper looks like he’s potentially in the same boat if he continues last week’s form as well. Setterfield probably turns into a premium when I can’t find an upgrade via my rookie cows.

Loose plan for next 4 rounds:
Round 6: Two down, one up (defence upgrade)
Round 7: 1-2 trades to pick up best rookie options
Round 8: one down, one up
Round 9: one down, one up (likely setterfield’s time to be upgraded (hoping it’s the week Oliver has come down enough, wishful thinking I know)

9 trades over 4 rounds takes me to 19 left, with potentially 15 premiums, Ziebell, Hopper and Sheezel. That leaves me 7 more upgrades to have full premo, but potentially just 4 to have a strong scoring 22.

I’d be hoping to do an upgrade every 2nd round from there on, and potentially pick up a strong scoring rookie (thinking 65-70 average) I can keep on field for the time being. Currently, one of those rookies for me is Ashcroft, but I’m sure he will plateau soon and I hope I can find another one.

Wrote way more than I was planning, and I’m sure many will think my plan is a bit naive/not taking everything into account, but I’ve got everything crossed it works!
 
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What about...

Baker > Roberts
Chandler > Williams
Long > Coniglio

Then you have 2 premiums (Ridley & Coniglio) on field instead of 1 premium (Neale) & Wilmot...
Thanks, yeah that was similar to my first plan for the week.

Guess it depends on whether one sees Ridley as a premium or not 🤪
 
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What about...

Baker > Roberts
Chandler > Williams
Long > Coniglio

Then you have 2 premiums (Ridley & Coniglio) on field instead of 1 premium (Neale) & Wilmot...
I think if I was going down the road of a true two down one up, I would look at Sinclair/Lloyd type over Coniglio for now.

FWIW the main reason behind a trade of Ridley to Neale/Laird, is that I think this is probably the last chance to get one of them in the short term. Going up in league matches against teams with Dawson/Liard/English etc has been a pain in the butt for the last 2 years, clearly I do not learn...
 

lappinitup

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Who would you prioritise out of Touk, Laird and Neale?
Seen this asked a few times.

I am a little different to most, I would go:

Neale: Highest upside (134 season), 3 of past for over 120, BE90. Probably go up 10k this week, another 20k the following.
Touk: Last two seasons above 120, started under injury cloud, looks to be working way back to best. BE112, might go up 5k.
Laird: : Last season brilliant Gun. Should get back there with closer attention to dawson, higher BE can wait a week.

Is Bont in this convo, or due to never averaging 120 plus.. seen as a level below?
 
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Its the age-old dilemmaa between cash generation and points, hey?

Somewhere between the two philosophies is the sweet spot where you are maximising points over the season and I think that sweet spot moves from year to year, depending on what all the players are doing and when. It also depends on what philosophy you brought to your starting lineup

All I know is that in recent years, when I have gone for a more value based starting 22, I have held my rookies for longer, come home strong and barely made it into the top 10k. In older days, I'd go pure GnR with similar results but the game was different back then with fewer trades and less available information.

This year, I'm really pushing my trading hard early. I'm almost certain that I'm going too hard and if that turns out to be true, then I'll know better for future years.

I'm interested in when "main upgrade season" starts and ends and how many rookies/MPs you or others are expecting to go into and come out of it with both on field and on the bench. Can you or others expand on that?
For me you’re in main upgrade season now. Whether that’s with a set of downgrades or painting the fence (one down, one up) or boosting two down one up or the triple downgrade - the point is you must be doing it from now through to the byes, and depending on hiccups along the way, during the byes. If you’ve taken a more mid price strategy with say 4-6 rookies on field you should be rookie free well before the byes, perhaps as early as round 10. I ran 12 premos and 2 MPs, which is where I’m still at, but next week I’ll look to add a couple more, with the $550k I’ve got from downgrades - you should be averaging one upgrade a week given the access to boosts. With 8 upgrades to be rookie free I’ll be running some of them until well into the byes.
 
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Debating
Ginbey/Baker/Callaghan - Roberts/Williams/Cogs +160k
or
Ginbey/Baker/Callaghan - Roberts/Williams/Cameron +70k
 

THCLT

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Guess it depends on whether one sees Ridley as a premium or not 🤪
Replace the name Ridley with say a Setterfield/Hopper, if they were giving you 90's with the odd 100's thrown in, would you still be in a rush to move them on...? Just treat as a MP for now and deal with him at the appropriate time.

At this stage of a season, the masses are trying to remove the more suspect scoring rookies OTF and replacing them with a better scoring keeper. The quicker one can do this, the better your overall team scoring will be.

Unless he forces you to act sooner, either through LTI or a very low score, then he's a 'fix' when I've removed all rookies OTF or wait to slingshot at the bye.
 
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Replace the name Ridley with say a Setterfield/Hopper, if they were giving you 90's with the odd 100's thrown in, would you still be in a rush to move them on...? Just treat as a MP for now and deal with him at the appropriate time.

At this stage of a season, the masses are trying to remove the more suspect scoring rookies OTF and replacing them with a better scoring keeper. The quicker one can do this, the better your overall team scoring will be.

Unless he forces you to act sooner, either through LTI or a very low score, then he's a 'fix' when I've removed all rookies OTF or wait to slingshot at the bye.
Great advice, I've come to the same conclusion with Ridley and Young. Upgrade around them and get rookies off-field.
 
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Bother. I think I have come back to double down / single up.

Ginbey / Baker / Chandler
Bont / Johnson / Roberts.

Premiums really are expensive!
 

THCLT

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FWIW the main reason behind a trade of Ridley to Neale/Laird, is that I think this is probably the last chance to get one of them in the short term. Going up in league matches against teams with Dawson/Liard/English etc has been a pain in the butt for the last 2 years, clearly I do not learn...
I agree with your concern in isolation, however, I see it as more of a spread or balance of your current Keepers which is the main issue.

Ridley currently occupy D2; Hopper at M5 plus SEVEN forwards (JZ & Sheezle counted for now). I suspect that you've been losing your H2H battle via your Def line as your Ridley has been up against a Dawson type and possibly your D3 (Michalanney) up against another Keeper.

First thing I would do is to use the recent DPP additions to rebalance your structure (by moving players around through their DPPs), then assess where you need to upgrade to best benefit your team. I'll get it to something like the below...

D: Daicos Ziebell* Sheezle* Ridley Michalanney McKenna | Cowan Constable*
M: Oliver Bont LDU Petracca Hopper Ashcroft Ginbey* Wilmot* | Baker Long* Chesser*
R: Darcy Marshall | Madden*
F: Dunkley* Taranto* Rozee* Gulden* JHF* Chandler | Ratugolea* JVR

It doesn't look too bad now with Ridley at D4, Hopper at M5 & JHF at F5.

Chandler, Baker & Long to Roberts & Williams leaves you with $534,500 (based off your proposed trade in post #234) for the upgrade. You can afford LLoyd but have to raise more $$$ (Ginbey over a Baker/Long) to get to Sinclair. As for a forward, you can afford anyone except for Cameron and Moore.

Let's say you use Ginbey in lieu of Long in the above, this will increase your bank to $588,000 for that upgrade which opens up some MID options for you (not the Neale/Laird which you desire): Serong, Cripps, Parish, JKelly, Macrae

Anyways, I feel that your team is not as dire as first thought. Yes, you're missing a couple of blue chip premiums right now, however, the overall balance (after restructuring) is okay PLUS you have a good core group of cash cows to allow you to gradually chip away at improving your team and overall scoring potential.
 
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