More accurately, when you know they can't maintain their form. I think cash gen is still a distant 2nd to points when talking premiums, even in these trade-crazy days. The massive cash that they are generating is just a symptom of their unsustainable form.
The primary payoff for you using this strategy is that all your competitors will be piling into this hot player in the hope that they will continue to smash out 130s and more and they will pay right up to that top dollar - think: those still hopping into Daicos at the moment or Dawson in the next couple of weeks. When they revert to mean with a couple of 90s and then on to low 100s, while your new premo is well into their 110+ ppg run, that is where you really win. Then the cycle repeats with the new player and you win again.
The point about getting money out of the transaction is just in answer to the argument that always gets thrown when you talk about sideways trading premiums. The argument usually is that you are wasting trades. But you clearly aren't. Your bank and premo count are affected in exactly the same way as they are when you trade a rookie and for exactly the same trade cost. That you've preemptively jettisoned your next underperforming premium for the next hot hand is where the edge is. The gravy is that you have some extra cash to upgrade somewhere else.
But it takes cajones. It's like.... Imagine little Nicky D makes it to 700k, based on back to back 150s. He's averaging 135. Who would trade him to say... Sicily who might look like he's snapped his poor streak and just posted back to back 100s? Maybe he's 500k
I'd say that nobody would do that. Would you do that? I probably wouldn't do that.
We will continue to bet on the second year player maintaining a 40ppg ($200k/5000) gap over the seasoned veteran intercept king. We will continue to bet on a 2nd year player averaging 135ppg. We will give up the $200k on offer for that belief, even though that 200k could get us say: a 460k Setterfield > a 580k Macrae and a 400k Pickett > a 480k Coniglio.
Daicos is up to 71% ownership right now, by the way. 13 people traded him out this week. I say we find those guys and find out what it is that they see that the rest of us are missing