Discussion 2023 Round 6: Teams & In Game Discussion

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Essendon
Yes but need to run the Roberts loop today after Johnson 35pts last night as E

Have shifted Dunkly up to cover Green, now its Greene or Roberts Onfield.?
VFL teams named at 5.00 today. Still won't know for sure, but will give you some idea. I'm wondering the same thing. re Roberts.
Greene plays tomorrow after Bombers/Pies VFL.

Might be able to make an educated guess from that. Davey probably comes in for Menzies IMO. But who knows?
 
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Bont in good. Bont vc good. Johnson in meh. Johnson on field bad. Liam Jones gives away too many frees etc for someone who doesn't get the ball much. He's out next week. Wagner reminds me of Constable.
Johnson reminds me of Oliver. Oliver Hollands that is...Johnson seemed thereabouts and plays similar to Hollands. Reckon he's worth Freo getting a good run of games and experience into him and looks capable of 55-60 games in the near term just didn't quite fall his way last night.
 
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Collingwood
Yeah must admit I havent done it in the past but feel I wasn’t aggressive enough…

I think that’s the gain you can get on the competition if you sell your Premium at the height of price in the hope that they drop off slightly, lose Cash gen and you can gain a significant advantage on other teams where they might be fielding rookies etc towards the end of the season
More accurately, when you know they can't maintain their form. I think cash gen is still a distant 2nd to points when talking premiums, even in these trade-crazy days. The massive cash that they are generating is just a symptom of their unsustainable form.

The primary payoff for you using this strategy is that all your competitors will be piling into this hot player in the hope that they will continue to smash out 130s and more and they will pay right up to that top dollar - think: those still hopping into Daicos at the moment or Dawson in the next couple of weeks. When they revert to mean with a couple of 90s and then on to low 100s, while your new premo is well into their 110+ ppg run, that is where you really win. Then the cycle repeats with the new player and you win again.

The point about getting money out of the transaction is just in answer to the argument that always gets thrown when you talk about sideways trading premiums. The argument usually is that you are wasting trades. But you clearly aren't. Your bank and premo count are affected in exactly the same way as they are when you trade a rookie and for exactly the same trade cost. That you've preemptively jettisoned your next underperforming premium for the next hot hand is where the edge is. The gravy is that you have some extra cash to upgrade somewhere else.

But it takes cajones. It's like.... Imagine little Nicky D makes it to 700k, based on back to back 150s. He's averaging 135. Who would trade him to say... Sicily who might look like he's snapped his poor streak and just posted back to back 100s? Maybe he's 500k

I'd say that nobody would do that. Would you do that? I probably wouldn't do that.

We will continue to bet on the second year player maintaining a 40ppg ($200k/5000) gap over the seasoned veteran intercept king. We will continue to bet on a 2nd year player averaging 135ppg. We will give up the $200k on offer for that belief, even though that 200k could get us say: a 460k Setterfield > a 580k Macrae and a 400k Pickett > a 480k Coniglio.

Daicos is up to 71% ownership right now, by the way. 13 people traded him out this week. I say we find those guys and find out what it is that they see that the rest of us are missing :LOL:
 
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West Coast
With the penalties they dish out these days it is a lottery but I think Brayshaw would be stiff. He takes one step and steps sideways to brace for an impact he knows is coming but on the other side of Libba Walters is pushing him into the Brayshaw contact and Brayshaw has no control over that. The Hughes one on JJ late in the game is the one that should be an issue.
 

Impromptu

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Essendon
Not a Brayshaw nor Libba owner and totally agree, can’t see Brayshaw being out but who knows these days; footage below

View: https://twitter.com/davidzita1/status/1649589555786579968?s=46&t=6BuF2tIOL_753KJQylg1cw


With the penalties they dish out these days it is a lottery but I think Brayshaw would be stiff. He takes one step and steps sideways to brace for an impact he knows is coming but on the other side of Libba Walters is pushing him into the Brayshaw contact and Brayshaw has no control over that. The Hughes one on JJ late in the game is the one that should be an issue.
 
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Carlton
More accurately, when you know they can't maintain their form. I think cash gen is still a distant 2nd to points when talking premiums, even in these trade-crazy days. The massive cash that they are generating is just a symptom of their unsustainable form.

The primary payoff for you using this strategy is that all your competitors will be piling into this hot player in the hope that they will continue to smash out 130s and more and they will pay right up to that top dollar - think: those still hopping into Daicos at the moment or Dawson in the next couple of weeks. When they revert to mean with a couple of 90s and then on to low 100s, while your new premo is well into their 110+ ppg run, that is where you really win. Then the cycle repeats with the new player and you win again.

The point about getting money out of the transaction is just in answer to the argument that always gets thrown when you talk about sideways trading premiums. The argument usually is that you are wasting trades. But you clearly aren't. Your bank and premo count are affected in exactly the same way as they are when you trade a rookie and for exactly the same trade cost. That you've preemptively jettisoned your next underperforming premium for the next hot hand is where the edge is. The gravy is that you have some extra cash to upgrade somewhere else.

But it takes cajones. It's like.... Imagine little Nicky D makes it to 700k, based on back to back 150s. He's averaging 135. Who would trade him to say... Sicily who might look like he's snapped his poor streak and just posted back to back 100s? Maybe he's 500k

I'd say that nobody would do that. Would you do that? I probably wouldn't do that.

We will continue to bet on the second year player maintaining a 40ppg ($200k/5000) gap over the seasoned veteran intercept king. We will continue to bet on a 2nd year player averaging 135ppg. We will give up the $200k on offer for that belief, even though that 200k could get us say: a 460k Setterfield > a 580k Macrae and a 400k Pickett > a 480k Coniglio.

Daicos is up to 71% ownership right now, by the way. 13 people traded him out this week. I say we find those guys and find out what it is that they see that the rest of us are missing :LOL:
One of those 13 people might be the one winning this year's grand prize
 
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Collingwood
More accurately, when you know they can't maintain their form. I think cash gen is still a distant 2nd to points when talking premiums, even in these trade-crazy days. The massive cash that they are generating is just a symptom of their unsustainable form.

The primary payoff for you using this strategy is that all your competitors will be piling into this hot player in the hope that they will continue to smash out 130s and more and they will pay right up to that top dollar - think: those still hopping into Daicos at the moment or Dawson in the next couple of weeks. When they revert to mean with a couple of 90s and then on to low 100s, while your new premo is well into their 110+ ppg run, that is where you really win. Then the cycle repeats with the new player and you win again.

The point about getting money out of the transaction is just in answer to the argument that always gets thrown when you talk about sideways trading premiums. The argument usually is that you are wasting trades. But you clearly aren't. Your bank and premo count are affected in exactly the same way as they are when you trade a rookie and for exactly the same trade cost. That you've preemptively jettisoned your next underperforming premium for the next hot hand is where the edge is. The gravy is that you have some extra cash to upgrade somewhere else.

But it takes cajones. It's like.... Imagine little Nicky D makes it to 700k, based on back to back 150s. He's averaging 135. Who would trade him to say... Sicily who might look like he's snapped his poor streak and just posted back to back 100s? Maybe he's 500k

I'd say that nobody would do that. Would you do that? I probably wouldn't do that.


We will continue to bet on the second year player maintaining a 40ppg ($200k/5000) gap over the seasoned veteran intercept king. We will continue to bet on a 2nd year player averaging 135ppg. We will give up the $200k on offer for that belief, even though that 200k could get us say: a 460k Setterfield > a 580k Macrae and a 400k Pickett > a 480k Coniglio.

Daicos is up to 71% ownership right now, by the way. 13 people traded him out this week. I say we find those guys and find out what it is that they see that the rest of us are missing :LOL:
Would be a massive POD play to trade Diacos. Is the risk worth it.

I have thought about it.

My Current position 15K it could vault me up the Ladder if Diacos average 90 over the next 5 weeks and Sicily average 110 during the same time. Only 100 points, but if the trade also allowed Cogs to shift into the FWD line for a 65pt rookie and Cogs went 110 during the same time all of a sudden the difference is 325pts over 5 weeks.

It was a trade i considered at the start of the week, and might go for next week.?

Daicos to Sicily / Chandler to Cogs / McKenna to Day

If it fails.......well
 
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West Coast
More accurately, when you know they can't maintain their form. I think cash gen is still a distant 2nd to points when talking premiums, even in these trade-crazy days. The massive cash that they are generating is just a symptom of their unsustainable form.

The primary payoff for you using this strategy is that all your competitors will be piling into this hot player in the hope that they will continue to smash out 130s and more and they will pay right up to that top dollar - think: those still hopping into Daicos at the moment or Dawson in the next couple of weeks. When they revert to mean with a couple of 90s and then on to low 100s, while your new premo is well into their 110+ ppg run, that is where you really win. Then the cycle repeats with the new player and you win again.

The point about getting money out of the transaction is just in answer to the argument that always gets thrown when you talk about sideways trading premiums. The argument usually is that you are wasting trades. But you clearly aren't. Your bank and premo count are affected in exactly the same way as they are when you trade a rookie and for exactly the same trade cost. That you've preemptively jettisoned your next underperforming premium for the next hot hand is where the edge is. The gravy is that you have some extra cash to upgrade somewhere else.

But it takes cajones. It's like.... Imagine little Nicky D makes it to 700k, based on back to back 150s. He's averaging 135. Who would trade him to say... Sicily who might look like he's snapped his poor streak and just posted back to back 100s? Maybe he's 500k

I'd say that nobody would do that. Would you do that? I probably wouldn't do that.

We will continue to bet on the second year player maintaining a 40ppg ($200k/5000) gap over the seasoned veteran intercept king. We will continue to bet on a 2nd year player averaging 135ppg. We will give up the $200k on offer for that belief, even though that 200k could get us say: a 460k Setterfield > a 580k Macrae and a 400k Pickett > a 480k Coniglio.

Daicos is up to 71% ownership right now, by the way. 13 people traded him out this week. I say we find those guys and find out what it is that they see that the rest of us are missing :LOL:

Dawson is ave 129 from 5 games. Let's assume the pace eases off a little and he ave 120 for the full season. That means from now till rd 23 he ave 117. And a player ave 117 would most likely have at least 3 or 4 games of sub 100 scores till season end.
 
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Essendon
Would be a massive POD play to trade Diacos. Is the risk worth it.

I have thought about it.

My Current position 15K it could vault me up the Ladder if Diacos average 90 over the next 5 weeks and Sicily average 110 during the same time. Only 100 points, but if the trade also allowed Cogs to shift into the FWD line for a 65pt rookie and Cogs went 110 during the same time all of a sudden the difference is 325pts over 5 weeks.

It was a trade i considered at the start of the week, and might go for next week.?

Daicos to Sicily / Chandler to Cogs / McKenna to Day

If it fails.......well
There are better ways to get those 100pts. Save the trade and bring in a key forward toward the end of the season if they have a favourable draw (think Tom Hawkins in previous seasons) and stick the C or VC on them.
 
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Essendon
More accurately, when you know they can't maintain their form. I think cash gen is still a distant 2nd to points when talking premiums, even in these trade-crazy days. The massive cash that they are generating is just a symptom of their unsustainable form.

The primary payoff for you using this strategy is that all your competitors will be piling into this hot player in the hope that they will continue to smash out 130s and more and they will pay right up to that top dollar - think: those still hopping into Daicos at the moment or Dawson in the next couple of weeks. When they revert to mean with a couple of 90s and then on to low 100s, while your new premo is well into their 110+ ppg run, that is where you really win. Then the cycle repeats with the new player and you win again.

The point about getting money out of the transaction is just in answer to the argument that always gets thrown when you talk about sideways trading premiums. The argument usually is that you are wasting trades. But you clearly aren't. Your bank and premo count are affected in exactly the same way as they are when you trade a rookie and for exactly the same trade cost. That you've preemptively jettisoned your next underperforming premium for the next hot hand is where the edge is. The gravy is that you have some extra cash to upgrade somewhere else.

But it takes cajones. It's like.... Imagine little Nicky D makes it to 700k, based on back to back 150s. He's averaging 135. Who would trade him to say... Sicily who might look like he's snapped his poor streak and just posted back to back 100s? Maybe he's 500k

I'd say that nobody would do that. Would you do that? I probably wouldn't do that.

We will continue to bet on the second year player maintaining a 40ppg ($200k/5000) gap over the seasoned veteran intercept king. We will continue to bet on a 2nd year player averaging 135ppg. We will give up the $200k on offer for that belief, even though that 200k could get us say: a 460k Setterfield > a 580k Macrae and a 400k Pickett > a 480k Coniglio.

Daicos is up to 71% ownership right now, by the way. 13 people traded him out this week. I say we find those guys and find out what it is that they see that the rest of us are missing :LOL:
The classic old school example was Neon Leon Davis getting up to ~$600k then the winner trading him out while everyone else piled in (might have been our site overlords year).

I think if you select a streaky KPF, like Lynch / Buddy / Walker, you obviously trade them out. But someone like Disco or Dawson? It's probably more important on who your trading in that your trading them out.

Will they continue averaging 130 ppg? Almost no chance. But you do get a leg up on everyone else selecting them and you upgrading elsewhere
 

Rowsus

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Shout Out, to everyone in my Boognish League.
Hadn't been looking at league rankings, but we're sitting 58th!
Highest ranked league I'm in - and interestingly my lowest H2H and overall rank within a league, lol.
Keep it up guys.

View attachment 55952
Morphetville R6 - 13 Boognish currently $8.50 the win.
 
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Collingwood
The classic old school example was Neon Leon Davis getting up to ~$600k then the winner trading him out while everyone else piled in (might have been our site overlords year).

I think if you select a streaky KPF, like Lynch / Buddy / Walker, you obviously trade them out. But someone like Disco or Dawson? It's probably more important on who your trading in that your trading them out.

Will they continue averaging 130 ppg? Almost no chance. But you do get a leg up on everyone else selecting them and you upgrading elsewhere
Remember the manoeuvre of a certain winner when he traded out Cloke.
 
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