Opinion 2020: Super Early Player Discussions

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Is it madness to start Heeney over Dusty at F2?

With Dusty it's probably a safe 100 average for the year but he can start slow and you can pick him up for cheaper later in the year. He still does have the potential to average 110 but you have to feel a high end average of about 105 is more likely at this stage in his career.

With Heeney he's a bit cheaper and I do think he still has a 110 average season in him if he gets the right role in the side and his body is right. He looked on track for this kind of average in the first half of 2018 but he got concussed and then things fell apart from there on.

Heeney has kind of been the Bont of the forward line the past two seasons as we've all expected an increase in the volume of his stats but he has failed to deliver. Heeney has averaged 20 disposals a game for 3 years in a row and despite being damaging with his possessions can't seem to get that number up, which he needs to in order to take another step.

Bont was the same for 2017 and 2018 as we waited to see if Bont could add more volume to his game and he could be a 115 avg type scorer and he finally did that this year. He did this at the exact moment everybody jumped off him and he started in just 4% of teams heading into 2019. Heeney probably doesn't have Bont's ceiling and isn't the same level of player but I can't help but feel its a question of when and not if he averages close to 110 for a season.

I still probably favour Dusty but if Heeney starts the year in less than 15% of teams I could be very tempted to pick him.

Both get niggling injuries that are annoying but come and go like the wind.

Edit: It turns out that Heeney struggled with that ankle injury all year as well as other injuries and he said it was the most "beat up" he'd ever been playing footy, so it definitely didn't go away like the wind. Not sure whether to interpret this as a good sign that he should be better if his body permits him to play good football or whether it only highlights that throughout his career he has the consistent habit of picking up minor and annoying injuries which affect his preparation and performance (see his footywire bio).
 
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Is it madness to start Heeney over Dusty at F2?

With Dusty it's probably a safe 100 average for the year but he can start slow and you can pick him up for cheaper later in the year. He still does have the potential to average 110 but you have to feel a high end average of about 105 is more likely at this stage in his career.

With Heeney he's a bit cheaper and I do think he still has a 110 average season in him if he gets the right role in the side and his body is right. He looked on track for this kind of average in the first half of 2018 but he got concussed and then things fell apart from there on.

Heeney has kind of been the Bont of the forward line the past two seasons as we've all expected an increase in the volume of his stats but he has failed to deliver. Heeney has averaged 20 disposals a game for 3 years in a row and despite being damaging with his possessions can't seem to get that number up, which he needs to in order to take another step.

Bont was the same for 2017 and 2018 as we waited to see if Bont could add more volume to his game and he could be a 115 avg type scorer and he finally did that this year. He did this at the exact moment everybody jumped off him and he started in just 4% of teams heading into 2019. Heeney probably doesn't have Bont's ceiling and isn't the same level of player but I can't help but feel its a question of when and not if he averages close to 110 for a season.

I still probably favour Dusty but if Heeney starts the year in less than 15% of teams I could be very tempted to pick him.

Both get niggling injuries that are annoying but come and go like the wind.

Edit: It turns out that Heeney struggled with that ankle injury all year as well as other injuries and he said it was the most "beat up" he'd ever been playing footy, so it definitely didn't go away like the wind. Not sure whether to interpret this as a good sign that he should be better if his body permits him to play good football or whether it only highlights that throughout his career he has the consistent habit of picking up minor and annoying injuries which affect his preparation and performance (see his footywire bio).
Heeney was flying until JLT 2 I believe where hurt the ankle. If he is fully recovered and I need to spare the cash then i'd probably look at Heeney first. Dusty posted 0 140+ scores last year threw in 4 60-80 scores, theres not doubt you'll get him cheaper. His average tackles should be low again and will keep him down.
 
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Heeney was flying until JLT 2 I believe where hurt the ankle. If he is fully recovered and I need to spare the cash then i'd probably look at Heeney first. Dusty posted 0 140+ scores last year threw in 4 60-80 scores, theres not doubt you'll get him cheaper. His average tackles should be low again and will keep him down.
Yeah a fit Heeney could be a better option if it gives you enough cash to get a better player elsewhere. I still think Dusty can average close to 110 one more time in his career but I’d consider that to be unlikely. He has a history of starting the year slowly as well so he should be a good upgrade target.

The issue with Heeney is those injuries as well as role. He has a long term history of getting the kind of injuries that inhibit your play throughout the season but don’t necessarily make you miss weeks.
 
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So to recap - the potential breakouts outlined by 'The Phantom'

Chayce Jones
Hunter Clarke
Andrew Brayshaw
Jordan Dawson
Will Brodie
On the face of it the only one I like is Dawson and I’d prefer McCluccage or Sam Walsh to any of his midfielders.

You’d be pretty insane to pick Jones, Brodie or Brayshaw.
 
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On the face of it the only one I like is Dawson and I’d prefer McCluccage or Sam Walsh to any of his midfielders.

You’d be pretty insane to pick Jones, Brodie or Brayshaw.
Agreed, you'd really need to see a big JLT from Jones (apparently he didnt do the match practice yesterday (or today, not sure) due to soreness so not a good sign. Brodie looks priced too high for my mind too, as would Clarke and Brayshaw be I would have thought. Mundy being injured perhaps opens up the door for Brayshaw but does Connor Blakely finally make the switch to midfield instead?
 
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Agreed, you'd really need to see a big JLT from Jones (apparently he didnt do the match practice yesterday (or today, not sure) due to soreness so not a good sign. Brodie looks priced too high for my mind too, as would Clarke and Brayshaw be I would have thought. Mundy being injured perhaps opens up the door for Brayshaw but does Connor Blakely finally make the switch to midfield instead?
Yeah with Jones he just has not showed much and wasn’t very good last year, a big JLT could make him a low midpriced cash cow candidate but I don’t believe I’d have room for one in in my team with some value defenders and forwards already available next year.

Clarke showed some signs at the end and is probably the best of those three but I don’t feel like Brayshaw has shown enough yet to give us any confidence.

Will Brodie is too expensive.

Surprised Sam Walsh didn’t feature for him, if anybody is going to do a Clayton Oliver in their second season you’d think it’d be him. I also don’t mind McCluccage but he’s at an awkward price where you could probably pick up somebody a little bit more expensive who is a lot safer
 

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Yeah a fit Heeney could be a better option if it gives you enough cash to get a better player elsewhere. I still think Dusty can average close to 110 one more time in his career but I’d consider that to be unlikely. He has a history of starting the year slowly as well so he should be a good upgrade target.

The issue with Heeney is those injuries as well as role. He has a long term history of getting the kind of injuries that inhibit your play throughout the season but don’t necessarily make you miss weeks.
I didn’t watch a lot of the Swans this year, but I think role has been at least as big an issue for Heeney as his fitness. Buddy being out, or less than 100%, seems to lead to Heeney playing more time forward, which is very frustrating as an owner.

He can score so quickly when he’s in the play, I think he just needs more mid time to go to the next level that he’s clearly capable of. Whether Buddy is fitter/other personnel changes free up Heeney to play in the middle will be the key questions for me in deciding whether to start him.
 
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