Strategy 2022: Round 3 Trades

[Spifflicator]

Surely Gov to Curnow and let the insanity continue?

 

[Bomber18]

Think I disagree that McGovern is the 2022 Daniher.

I held big Joe all through 2021 and knew he was liable for ups and downs, kpp after all. McGovern is supposedly in one of the easiest positions to play and has the requisite skills but hasn't been great. Yes, played against harder teams but got frustrated last night, did dumb things and had skill errors. Low on confidence and I don't think he knows how to play the role. Injury to McDonald won't help him either.

Leaves my team next week methinks.

I think the comment was about trading him for the 2022 Daniher ie Curnow

 

[Montyjnr]

Mitch McGovern for the 2022 Joe Daniher

Completely understand the McGovern frustration but I actually think the positives outweigh the negatives. Role is pretty great it's just production, and countless times we've seen players need a few rounds to find their feet in a changed position.. especially now he's doing the polar opposite of his norm!

Looking at the next few rounds he plays Hawthorn, Gold Coast, Port Adelaide, and Fremantle. We are VERY early into the season, but from what I saw of the GC, Port, and Fremantle game there will be plenty of high long kicks inside 50.. intercepting GOLD! (didn't watch the hawks game so can't comment if the same applies there).

In the absence of a trade that actually brings a player with role + production, I think he's worth holding for a few more rounds. He's unlikely to lose cash, and there will be downgrades in future rounds (Martin, Sinn, Skinner all round 4 but sure there will be others after that) so he can still provide a bail out if needed. Just feel he's largely passed the eye test in terms of role and the upside is definitely still there - was not far off a 100 point game vs the tigers (until he missed a lot of the 4th quarter) and salvaged a 40 in what was a tough night for him.. not saying he's 100% going to work but don't think he's a trade out just yet.

I don't think it matters if Gov becomes the 2022 Joe Daniher and turns it around. There are so many other value options that are actually performing, why do you need to wait around for Gov to get his sh*t together?

I can't fit in all of Hewett, McDonald, Lipinski, Rowell, Caldwell, Coniglio, Gov, Brodie & Xerri for instance, so I have to miss out somewhere anyway. Most of the other value guys are performing better than Gov in roles just as good and it's really not that difficult to find another 100-150k to enable a switch to the more expensive options either.

Martin, Rachele & Hayes have also emerged as possible fieldable options up forward too, so it now just seems unnecessary carrying 3-4 of the Coniglio/Gov/Brodie/Xerri 200-300K types in the forward line now.

In short, Gov has just lost alot of relevance and importance for mine. It's hard to see him really burning you if you moved to an alternative value option that is performing anyway.

 

[Zimmer]

Didn't watch the game. Hewett at an awkward price. Will he maintain the rage/role?

 

[Chumpion]

I don't think it matters if Gov becomes the 2022 Joe Daniher and turns it around. There are so many other value options that are actually performing, why do you need to wait around for Gov to get his sh*t together?

I can't fit in all of Hewett, McDonald, Lipinski, Rowell, Caldwell, Coniglio, Gov, Brodie & Xerri for instance, so I have to miss out somewhere anyway. Most of the other value guys are performing better than Gov in roles just as good and it's really not that difficult to find another 100-150k to enable a switch to the more expensive options either.

Martin, Rachele & Hayes have also emerged as possible fieldable options up forward too, so it now just seems unnecessary carrying 3-4 of the Coniglio/Gov/Brodie/Xerri 200-300K types in the forward line now.

In short, Gov has just lost alot of relevance and importance for mine. It's hard to see him really burning you if you moved to an alternative value option that is performing anyway.

Don't underestimate the cost of an additional trade though - going from McGovern to value pick adds a trade in trying to get a full prem team, or 2 trades to take him straight to a cheaper "keeper'. I would argue that of all the players you have selected, most carry as much risk as McGovern, so trading one problem to another adds to the risk.

Looking through the list:

Hewett - looks good, easily the strongest keeper potential and don't think Cerra returning hurts him too much so can see people wanting to grab him this week.
McDonald - needs a few more weeks for mine. Hall, Ziebell, & McDonald can't all feast on the pie so scoring could be inconsistent. Riding him for 4-5 weeks as a mid is also probably not ideal even if the end goal is DPP.
Lipinski - scored well but personally I think he scored a disproportionate amount of his points on the half forward line. Got more mid opportunity than he did at the dogs, but this was basically his lottery game.. everything went perfectly for him. This won't be the norm, but if he starts to struggle with HF scoring (a huge issue at the dogs) I'm not sure his mid time will compensate enough to be worth a McGovern - Lipinski trade.
Rowell - alongside Hewett as the most likely to be a keeper, albeit less likely in the mid line as the requirement is much higher. Definitely a trade target but using 2 trades to go McGovern - Rowell has risk written all over it.
Caldwell - wouldn't be a target for mine, bombers have far too many players that will rotate through the middle and he will be well behind Merrett, Parish and now Stringer, not to mention Shiel + others. McGovern - Caldwell is a season ender for mind.
Coniglio - if you didn't start Coniglio but started McGovern, you shouldn't be playing SC.
Brodie - the Fyfe injury news certainly adds to his appeal but isn't exactly rolled gold, especially with some obvious tank issues and limited role variety.
Xerri - definitely a start or forget option so far, although that could change after this week. No guarantee that he keeps the #1 ruck spot over Goldy all season, and with the number of talls north has he can't afford to slip up. Not a "must trade in" target.

So of this list, there is probably 2 players that could be worth trading McGovern for, but neither can be done in 1 trade so 2 trades for a "potential" keeper that may require a 3rd trade to upgrade isn't exactly a no brainer. Especially when just last week everyone was saying McGovern looked good and was just an unlucky late injury (missed a lot of scaling potential) from a great score.

Last comment re: Rachele, Martin, Hayes - you also need to consider bench cover. Martin is already missing a game and is a strong chance to get rested at some stage given his pathway into the team. Hayes may not even play when Ryder gets back, and Rachele is no guarantee to score that well in that Crows team.. can't kick 5 in an "almost" comeback every week!

Not saying McGovern is the new jesus and you certainly wouldn't be targeting him to trade in if you didn't start him.. I just don't think he's been so bad that he is an automatic trade out when the trade in options (from 1 trade) aren't exactly screaming "must have" and the trade in options (from 2 trades) still carry risks.

 

[Uncle Drew]

Cripps, I just can't do it to myself. The pain last year hurt real deep or could I??? NOOO "remember this lol"

He could become the ultimate burn man by reverting to 90s after every trades him in this week.

 

[MickyBoi]

Just to throw a spanner in the midfield upgrade target conversation, anyone else thinking Green looks absolutely cherry ripe for a 3rd year breakout?

 

[jel]

Crisp, Steele & Berry under the microscope this round.

If they under-perform I could easily see myself do a 3 way trade to Cripps, Hewett & Miller

 

[Montyjnr]

Don't underestimate the cost of an additional trade though - going from McGovern to value pick adds a trade in trying to get a full prem team, or 2 trades to take him straight to a cheaper "keeper'. I would argue that of all the players you have selected, most carry as much risk as McGovern, so trading one problem to another adds to the risk.

Looking through the list:

Hewett - looks good, easily the strongest keeper potential and don't think Cerra returning hurts him too much so can see people wanting to grab him this week.
McDonald - needs a few more weeks for mine. Hall, Ziebell, & McDonald can't all feast on the pie so scoring could be inconsistent. Riding him for 4-5 weeks as a mid is also probably not ideal even if the end goal is DPP.
Lipinski - scored well but personally I think he scored a disproportionate amount of his points on the half forward line. Got more mid opportunity than he did at the dogs, but this was basically his lottery game.. everything went perfectly for him. This won't be the norm, but if he starts to struggle with HF scoring (a huge issue at the dogs) I'm not sure his mid time will compensate enough to be worth a McGovern - Lipinski trade.
Rowell - alongside Hewett as the most likely to be a keeper, albeit less likely in the mid line as the requirement is much higher. Definitely a trade target but using 2 trades to go McGovern - Rowell has risk written all over it.
Caldwell - wouldn't be a target for mine, bombers have far too many players that will rotate through the middle and he will be well behind Merrett, Parish and now Stringer, not to mention Shiel + others. McGovern - Caldwell is a season ender for mind.
Coniglio - if you didn't start Coniglio but started McGovern, you shouldn't be playing SC.
Brodie - the Fyfe injury news certainly adds to his appeal but isn't exactly rolled gold, especially with some obvious tank issues and limited role variety.
Xerri - definitely a start or forget option so far, although that could change after this week. No guarantee that he keeps the #1 ruck spot over Goldy all season, and with the number of talls north has he can't afford to slip up. Not a "must trade in" target.

So of this list, there is probably 2 players that could be worth trading McGovern for, but neither can be done in 1 trade so 2 trades for a "potential" keeper that may require a 3rd trade to upgrade isn't exactly a no brainer. Especially when just last week everyone was saying McGovern looked good and was just an unlucky late injury (missed a lot of scaling potential) from a great score.

Last comment re: Rachele, Martin, Hayes - you also need to consider bench cover. Martin is already missing a game and is a strong chance to get rested at some stage given his pathway into the team. Hayes may not even play when Ryder gets back, and Rachele is no guarantee to score that well in that Crows team.. can't kick 5 in an "almost" comeback every week!

Not saying McGovern is the new jesus and you certainly wouldn't be targeting him to trade in if you didn't start him.. I just don't think he's been so bad that he is an automatic trade out when the trade in options (from 1 trade) aren't exactly screaming "must have" and the trade in options (from 2 trades) still carry risks.

Great summary. I just think the importance of trades is overstated a little. Most of us used to be able to reach a full prem team with just 24 trades before 2013, now we have 35!

Do we wait around for Gov to learn how to play half back and miss potential "must-haves" for the sake of saving a few trades? I just see more risk in sitting on your hands before price changes right now.

The 2nd trade for the Hewett or Rowell could also correct another underwhelming pick - like maybe Berry continues to struggle with his shoulder this week for instance? I would have no issue dropping him down to a Nic Martin or Skinner, who suddenly have much better job security than people expected in the pre-season.

 

[stephen]

Don't think you can trade Hewett in given Cerra to come back and likelihood of defensive roles. Probably had his two tons for the year already. Good luck to those who started him, but not worth a trade.

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[Inside50]

Just to throw a spanner in the midfield upgrade target conversation, anyone else thinking Green looks absolutely cherry ripe for a 3rd year breakout?

He certainly does. But how to squeeze them all in? With people running Cripps, Rowell, Berry as speculative picks, he should remain a good unique option.

 

[MickyBoi]

He certainly does. But how to squeeze them all in? With people running Cripps, Rowell, Berry as speculative picks, he should remain a good unique option.

Yeah it’s a challenge! If Berry doesn’t fire this week and Green does then I think that’ll be a trade I make next week. Will be tough to pass up Lipinski or McDonald if they go big again but only got room for one and I think I like Green the most as a keeper, despite the higher price tag.

 

[stephen]

Yeah it’s a challenge! If Berry doesn’t fire this week and Green does then I think that’ll be a trade I make next week. Will be tough to pass up Lipinski or McDonald if they go big again but only got room for one and I think I like Green the most as a keeper, despite the higher price tag.

Doubt i can fit him in but another strong showing would have me looking for ways to do it. Really is only the absolute elite who can break out as mid-only SC premos in their third year, but he has had that smell about him at times.

 

[Uncle Drew]

Great summary. I just think the importance of trades is overstated a little. Most of us used to be able to reach a full prem team with just 24 trades before 2013, now we have 35!

Do we wait around for Gov to learn how to play half back and miss potential "must-haves" for the sake of saving a few trades? I just see more risk in sitting on your hands before price changes right now.

The 2nd trade for the Hewett or Rowell could also correct another underwhelming pick - like maybe Berry continues to struggle with his shoulder this week for instance? I would have no issue dropping him down to a Nic Martin or Skinner, who suddenly have much better job security than people expected in the pre-season.

I never have issues upgrading my team, but I always run out of trades with 30 due to late season injuries, and that's usually while holding a couple short term injuries earlier in the year. Maybe I'm just unlucky or maybe 35 trades is too many now, but even with 35 I can see a lot of teams running out of trades by round 15 and holding on for dear life at the end of the season.

I'd definitely trade Gov for a "must-have", but not sure who the forward line must haves at a similar price are. Xerri/Brodie/Curnow all have question marks, Martin can wait another week. Holding Gov till a good downgrade appears shouldn't hurt too bad, he won't lose money and may even make a little if he fixes his butter fingers. If you have the cash to upgrade him then I wouldn't hesitate, but otherwise the downgrade/sideways trade in options don't look great.

 

[The Experiment]

I never have issues upgrading my team, but I always run out of trades with 30 due to late season injuries, and that's usually while holding a couple short term injuries earlier in the year. Maybe I'm just unlucky or maybe 35 trades is too many now, but even with 35 I can see a lot of teams running out of trades by round 15 and holding on for dear life at the end of the season.

I'd definitely trade Gov for a "must-have", but not sure who the forward line must haves at a similar price are. Xerri/Brodie/Curnow all have question marks, Martin can wait another week. Holding Gov till a good downgrade appears shouldn't hurt too bad, he won't lose money and may even make a little if he fixes his butter fingers. If you have the cash to upgrade him then I wouldn't hesitate, but otherwise the downgrade/sideways trade in options don't look great.

We had 30 trades last year plus a couple of additional allotments didnt we? Might've even totalled more than 35 for the year? and Guess what, I ran out with a few rounds to go! haha

So I do agree, the 35 sitting there staring at you can lure you into a false sense of security. It can come undone pretty quickly in the back half of the year as injuries and the general soreness mounts, and I find there is nothing more frustrating than running out of trades in the final few rounds.

 

[Johnsy44]

Seeing some very good arguments for what to do about Gov in here.

Seeing what happens with Omac and his injury will play a big part in my decision about if I hold Gov or not. If Omac can’t get up for next week, expect Lewis young to come in. We are very limited for key defender stocks and if Omac is out for some time, that will likely make Gov much more accountable.

 

[aj74]

I think if youve got obvious things to fix prior to price changes you should just use a boost, everyone is hell bent on saving them for upgrade season but your season could be effectively over before we even get there if you are too stubborn on bringing value and good rookies in while they are there.

Smash that like button.

Every year, the ****ty thing about correction season is that you only get 2 trades and you need to fix 3 issues, or find funds to fix the most glaring 2. I'll be taking the boost this week.

I've got a very cookie cutter team with 23 of the 25 most popular players (and the 2 missing are only Dixon and Gibcus). Time to break that up a little.

In the gun are: Crisp, Ridley, Whitfield, Berry, Ward and Gov. Of interest are Sinn (for finance), Lippa, Green and JDG. Thinking one of those key backs for Sinn and picking up Green and JDG if I can get there should make for an ok differentiation for now. Just depends on who saves his spot this weekend

 

[Deeman1]

Don't think you can trade Hewett in given Cerra to come back and likelihood of defensive roles. Probably had his two tons for the year already. Good luck to those who started him, but not worth a trade.

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Great advise.

But, if Ridley/Whitfield don't give me something this week they will be gone for Hewett next week, I think worst case scenario he makes 70-80k and can be flipped back if he goes bad.

But the other advantage is I can turn McGovern into Heeney aswell.

Happy to run Heeney at a purchase price of 450k at F6 and Hewett at D6 for 400k.

 

[manyproblems]

No one would really be looking at trading capable guys like Berry and Gov if it weren't for the opportunities available, as well as a few of us missing guys like Martin and Hayes, thats where the cash is to get to Cripps/Hewett.

Its quite tough to navigate, with extra trades I'd like to make Cripps happen, provided I project no required unforced trades after using 4 in the first two, but the backfire potential of trading Berry could be costly, but fading Cripps just as problematic.

 

[Chumpion]

Great summary. I just think the importance of trades is overstated a little. Most of us used to be able to reach a full prem team with just 24 trades before 2013, now we have 35!

Do we wait around for Gov to learn how to play half back and miss potential "must-haves" for the sake of saving a few trades? I just see more risk in sitting on your hands before price changes right now.

The 2nd trade for the Hewett or Rowell could also correct another underwhelming pick - like maybe Berry continues to struggle with his shoulder this week for instance? I would have no issue dropping him down to a Nic Martin or Skinner, who suddenly have much better job security than people expected in the pre-season.

I'm still not convinced we won't need more trades allocated to "sideways" moves to dodge covid carnage, especially over winter. Everyone who has had covid likely had it Nov/Dec, with a few over the early parts of this year but that means they are cherry ripe to catch one of the inevitable new strains in the May-August period. Not to say those strains will be bad.. but they will definitely lead to players missing and with the increased indoor time during the cold months, the impacts could be significant. Wouldn't be at all surprised if there are weeks where teams have 2+ donuts or additional rookies covering premiums, and the problem could be compounded if it's the clear C options that miss.

Not say that trading aggressively isn't an option, but I still think it needs to be the right trade(s) as you can actually fall behind everyone else pretty easily if you get it wrong - an average player you started with beats an average player you traded in!