Position 2023: Midfield Discussion
- Thread starter KLo30
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I've enjoyed the conversation around the uber premo mids - Laird, Oliver, Neale and Miller. Thought I would do a bit of historical research in to how the top performing mids from the year prior have started the season.
For this analysis, I've looked at the mids that have gone 120+ the year prior and viewed their first 7 scores of the year and their starting price v Post Rd 7 price fluctuation. I've done this for the last 4 years.
2019
Tom Mitchell - $700,800 (avg 129.1) Did Not Play
Jack Macrae $689,700 (avg 127)
First 7 : 132, 127, 139, 110, 97, 85, 107
Average : 114
Price after Rd7 : $582,300 (-107,400)
Patrick Dangerfield $660,500 (avg 121.7)
First 7 : 97, 154, 128, 66, 127, 94, INJ
Average (6) : 111
Price after Rd6 : $584,900 (-75,600)
Patrick Cripps $648,200 (avg 119.4)
First 7 : 126, 116, 157, 169, 110, 93, 123
Average : 128
Price after Rd7 : $650,700 (+2,500)
2020
Jack Macrae $668,900 (avg 123.2)
First 7 : 103, 93, 133, 92, 90, 138, 122
Average : 110
Price after Rd7 : $581,500 (-87,400)
Lachie Neale $658,500 (avg 121.3)
First 7 : 157, 171, 166, 147, 130, 134, 87
Average : 142
Price after Rd7 : $706,300 (+47,800)
Nat Fyfe $651,600 (avg 120)
First 4 : 110, 143, 166, INJ
Average (3) : 140
Price : N/A
2021
Lachie Neale $721,800 (avg 134.3)
First 6 : 77, 75, 89, 85, 157, 96
Average (6) : 97
Price after Rd6 : $578,700 (-143,100)
Jack Steele $658,000 (avg 122.5)
First 7 : 91, 123, 132, 150, 104, 105, 91
Average : 114
Price after Rd7 : $606,600 (-51,400)
Clayton Oliver $656,700 (avg 122.2)
First 7 : 122, 133, 108, 137, 146, 140, 107
Average : 114
Price after Rd7 : $591,700 (-65,000)
Jack Macrae $650,100 (avg 121)
First 7 : 118, 137, 108, 137, 146, 140, 107
Average : 128
Price after Rd 7 : $666,100 (+16,000)
2022
Jack Macrae $699,900 (avg 128.6)
First 7 : 133, 142, 92, 158, 153, 92, 89
Average : 123
Price after Rd7 : $656,000 (-43,900)
Jack Steele $685,800 (avg 126)
First 7 : 87, 111, 121, 125, 131, 140, 122
Average : 120
Price after Rd7 : $658,000 (-27,800)
Touk Miller $677,800 (avg 124.5)
First 7 : 137, 140, 76, 105, 107, 99, 160
Average : 118
Price after Rd7 : $592,100 (-85,700)
Clayton Oliver $672,000 (avg 123.5)
First 7 : 112, 121, 146, 68, 118, 168, 119
Average : 122
Price after Rd7 : $639,400 (-32,600)
Observations
However, if I'm only getting a 50% discount on these guys after 7 rounds on average, it's going to be very hard to trade them all in to your team and not neglect the rest of your team's upgrades.
Not to mention the average from 92 games of 120 for these guys with 12% of those scores being 150+ monsters, that's where that initial boost in the rankings can come from with a 160 captain score.
In saying that, every year there is at least 1 of the top starting price players that you can get for sub 600k before round 8.
Begs the question, how many of these 4 will you start (Laird, Oliver, Neale, Miller?) - For me, none ...... yet.
For this analysis, I've looked at the mids that have gone 120+ the year prior and viewed their first 7 scores of the year and their starting price v Post Rd 7 price fluctuation. I've done this for the last 4 years.
2019
Tom Mitchell - $700,800 (avg 129.1) Did Not Play
Jack Macrae $689,700 (avg 127)
First 7 : 132, 127, 139, 110, 97, 85, 107
Average : 114
Price after Rd7 : $582,300 (-107,400)
Patrick Dangerfield $660,500 (avg 121.7)
First 7 : 97, 154, 128, 66, 127, 94, INJ
Average (6) : 111
Price after Rd6 : $584,900 (-75,600)
Patrick Cripps $648,200 (avg 119.4)
First 7 : 126, 116, 157, 169, 110, 93, 123
Average : 128
Price after Rd7 : $650,700 (+2,500)
2020
Jack Macrae $668,900 (avg 123.2)
First 7 : 103, 93, 133, 92, 90, 138, 122
Average : 110
Price after Rd7 : $581,500 (-87,400)
Lachie Neale $658,500 (avg 121.3)
First 7 : 157, 171, 166, 147, 130, 134, 87
Average : 142
Price after Rd7 : $706,300 (+47,800)
Nat Fyfe $651,600 (avg 120)
First 4 : 110, 143, 166, INJ
Average (3) : 140
Price : N/A
2021
Lachie Neale $721,800 (avg 134.3)
First 6 : 77, 75, 89, 85, 157, 96
Average (6) : 97
Price after Rd6 : $578,700 (-143,100)
Jack Steele $658,000 (avg 122.5)
First 7 : 91, 123, 132, 150, 104, 105, 91
Average : 114
Price after Rd7 : $606,600 (-51,400)
Clayton Oliver $656,700 (avg 122.2)
First 7 : 122, 133, 108, 137, 146, 140, 107
Average : 114
Price after Rd7 : $591,700 (-65,000)
Jack Macrae $650,100 (avg 121)
First 7 : 118, 137, 108, 137, 146, 140, 107
Average : 128
Price after Rd 7 : $666,100 (+16,000)
2022
Jack Macrae $699,900 (avg 128.6)
First 7 : 133, 142, 92, 158, 153, 92, 89
Average : 123
Price after Rd7 : $656,000 (-43,900)
Jack Steele $685,800 (avg 126)
First 7 : 87, 111, 121, 125, 131, 140, 122
Average : 120
Price after Rd7 : $658,000 (-27,800)
Touk Miller $677,800 (avg 124.5)
First 7 : 137, 140, 76, 105, 107, 99, 160
Average : 118
Price after Rd7 : $592,100 (-85,700)
Clayton Oliver $672,000 (avg 123.5)
First 7 : 112, 121, 146, 68, 118, 168, 119
Average : 122
Price after Rd7 : $639,400 (-32,600)
Observations
- 10,999 points were scored across a data set of 92 games. An average score of 119.6
- 40% of scores were 130+ (32 out of 92)
- 27% of scores were under 100 (25 out of 92)
- 33% of scores were between 101-129 (35 out of 92)
- 53% of scores were 120+ (49 out of 92)
- Average price drop from 13 uber premo's was $50,276 after 7 Rounds (all 4 of this year's crop would still be over 600k on trend. Laird would still be 650k on this pattern).
- 12% of scores were monsters 150+ (12 out of 92)
However, if I'm only getting a 50% discount on these guys after 7 rounds on average, it's going to be very hard to trade them all in to your team and not neglect the rest of your team's upgrades.
Not to mention the average from 92 games of 120 for these guys with 12% of those scores being 150+ monsters, that's where that initial boost in the rankings can come from with a 160 captain score.
In saying that, every year there is at least 1 of the top starting price players that you can get for sub 600k before round 8.
Begs the question, how many of these 4 will you start (Laird, Oliver, Neale, Miller?) - For me, none ...... yet.
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For me, you have to take the 2 players that you think will average the most in SC this year. Oliver is the only lock for me in this group (Macrae my other). His history is the best, he’s the youngest, and his CBA midfield hasn’t really changed, it’s just had another excellent ruck added to it.
Laird has Sloane back, and I also think he’s the least likely to maintain the rage.
Miller has a lot of young mids pushing for more time but he could sustain it. I just never feel like starting him is the right move.
Neale has just had Dunkley and Ashcroft added, so more mouths to feed. I’d want to hold on him too.
Laird has Sloane back, and I also think he’s the least likely to maintain the rage.
Miller has a lot of young mids pushing for more time but he could sustain it. I just never feel like starting him is the right move.
Neale has just had Dunkley and Ashcroft added, so more mouths to feed. I’d want to hold on him too.
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Thanks @Harmonic Nine - A very thought-provoking analysis.
A couple of additional observations..
1 - Last years winner started with 2 of the top 4 from 2021, namely Macrae & Miller
2 - Your point about the average price drop of 50K (you had 50%, but I assume 50K was intended)
Averaging the 4 players may be a bit misleading - unless you wanted to get all of them in by Round 7 - I reckon that would be a very tall order.
You have the price movements at R7 - lets say you just brought in one of them at that point.
Picking the biggest loser each year, would give you a discount of about $106K
Picking the biggest 2 losers each year, would give you a discount of about $70K each (maybe more because there is one player missing in 2020)
A couple of additional observations..
1 - Last years winner started with 2 of the top 4 from 2021, namely Macrae & Miller
2 - Your point about the average price drop of 50K (you had 50%, but I assume 50K was intended)
Averaging the 4 players may be a bit misleading - unless you wanted to get all of them in by Round 7 - I reckon that would be a very tall order.
You have the price movements at R7 - lets say you just brought in one of them at that point.
Picking the biggest loser each year, would give you a discount of about $106K
Picking the biggest 2 losers each year, would give you a discount of about $70K each (maybe more because there is one player missing in 2020)
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[Q
Laird Averaged 119 in his first 6 games 127 in his next 7 and then 134 in his last 6 games. If anything he continued to improve as the year went on... that said anything can happen. I don't think Sloane coming back in will hurt him tbh, mainly because he is going to play as a 100% perma-mid if Sloane is there or not. 3 times in the 1st 14 games Laird played 80% TOG or more. In his last 6 games he played 80% TOG or more in all of them. As ridiculously good as his yearly average was he got off to a "slow" start probably due to missing the first 2 rounds injured and they eased him back into it a little.
Laird Averaged 119 in his first 6 games 127 in his next 7 and then 134 in his last 6 games. If anything he continued to improve as the year went on... that said anything can happen. I don't think Sloane coming back in will hurt him tbh, mainly because he is going to play as a 100% perma-mid if Sloane is there or not. 3 times in the 1st 14 games Laird played 80% TOG or more. In his last 6 games he played 80% TOG or more in all of them. As ridiculously good as his yearly average was he got off to a "slow" start probably due to missing the first 2 rounds injured and they eased him back into it a little.
Nice data. But I always find it hard to trade up to these guys than you make it sound. Pure Guns and Rooks it would be unlikely you have the cash. To do it within 7 rounds I am assuming you need a mid pricer than has found form or traded down from an inj/failed premium to a rookie and have lots of cash.
Great work @Harmonic Nine!
The things that struck me about this were:
(1) That most players underperformed their price, many of them by 10+. That’s pretty underwhelming. Two notable exceptions were (a) Fyfe in 2020, who improved by 20, but only off a sample of 3 games (ie he likely wasn’t a successful pick regardless), and (b) Neale in 2020, who improved by 21, but that may have been driven by the Covid-shortened games (92% TOG that year!). No one else improved much (10+), with most underperforming their price.
(2) Notwithstanding that, prices didn’t drop much. 50k on a c. 600k player is only an 8% decline, which is in line with the overall shift in the magic number (c. 5,400 to 5,000). To me this indicates that scoring that is down, but not down by much, has quite a modest impact on price declines. Neale and Fyfe in 2020 obviously reduce the average, but not by much.
Taken together, this suggests to me that the bigger risk in starting mids at very high prices may be underwhelming points generation, rather than losing cash.
The things that struck me about this were:
(1) That most players underperformed their price, many of them by 10+. That’s pretty underwhelming. Two notable exceptions were (a) Fyfe in 2020, who improved by 20, but only off a sample of 3 games (ie he likely wasn’t a successful pick regardless), and (b) Neale in 2020, who improved by 21, but that may have been driven by the Covid-shortened games (92% TOG that year!). No one else improved much (10+), with most underperforming their price.
(2) Notwithstanding that, prices didn’t drop much. 50k on a c. 600k player is only an 8% decline, which is in line with the overall shift in the magic number (c. 5,400 to 5,000). To me this indicates that scoring that is down, but not down by much, has quite a modest impact on price declines. Neale and Fyfe in 2020 obviously reduce the average, but not by much.
Taken together, this suggests to me that the bigger risk in starting mids at very high prices may be underwhelming points generation, rather than losing cash.
700k players really tighten up your options. I'd go so far as to say 675k+ players do. I've usually started with a couple and sometimes as many as 4 above 650k. That's over a quarter of my spend on about an 8th of my list. Makes for a pretty long, fragile tail with multiple rookies either missing outright or struggling for months to make it to 250k.
Really, you need 2 players to do the C/VC. These are functions that can't be covered by spreading the spending elsewhere. If you think that a player is worth 700k, you think he will be pumping out captain scores every week. Therefore, even the VC role can be filled by a 620k player for the weeks your stud doesn't come through. Let's face it, gun or uber gun, if the VC scores 130, you'd take it, right?
The money saved, you hope to put to use, getting those 50-60 PPG players onto the bench and replaced by 80 - 100PPG players. This hopefully bridges the gap in points you have created by not having premiums 2 - 6 or whatever.
By the end of the season, the teams at the pointy end will all look similar as everyone trades for the popular/in form players. Assuming the right players chosen, it comes down to who gets that full set of premos first, and who didn't drop too far off the pace early on.
It is easier to catch players who's values are innately falling due to the changing MN than to catch rising players on a breakout.
Therefore I say, get your Clarry or your Laird. Neale if you wanna get a POD. Touk if you think he's permacaptain worthy. Then get your VC from any of Bont, Macrae or Cripps or really anyone capable of pulling out a 130 for a decent price. If your number 1 mid is such a must have, you won't even need that VC score most weeks anyway but it's good to have some sort of insurance. I'll probably go Oliver/Macrae. Then you grab your rookies how you think they'll drop. Then you pick value. I'd even go so far as to say you should get your mid-pricers first if you see any you like. Just be sure to get any and all dribbler rookies out of your starting 22. Try to get to 13 keepers
Leave 100k in the bank. Searching for value makes this easier. Then you can get your Touk or whoever for 600k when it turns up at round 6 for a stagnating value pick and cash
As the years go by and as the community gets more experienced and resources like this site and others become more ubiquitous, you need to find ways to separate yourself from the crowd. At the moment, the fashion is to chase last year's points when it should always, always be about what happens next.
Really, you need 2 players to do the C/VC. These are functions that can't be covered by spreading the spending elsewhere. If you think that a player is worth 700k, you think he will be pumping out captain scores every week. Therefore, even the VC role can be filled by a 620k player for the weeks your stud doesn't come through. Let's face it, gun or uber gun, if the VC scores 130, you'd take it, right?
The money saved, you hope to put to use, getting those 50-60 PPG players onto the bench and replaced by 80 - 100PPG players. This hopefully bridges the gap in points you have created by not having premiums 2 - 6 or whatever.
By the end of the season, the teams at the pointy end will all look similar as everyone trades for the popular/in form players. Assuming the right players chosen, it comes down to who gets that full set of premos first, and who didn't drop too far off the pace early on.
It is easier to catch players who's values are innately falling due to the changing MN than to catch rising players on a breakout.
Therefore I say, get your Clarry or your Laird. Neale if you wanna get a POD. Touk if you think he's permacaptain worthy. Then get your VC from any of Bont, Macrae or Cripps or really anyone capable of pulling out a 130 for a decent price. If your number 1 mid is such a must have, you won't even need that VC score most weeks anyway but it's good to have some sort of insurance. I'll probably go Oliver/Macrae. Then you grab your rookies how you think they'll drop. Then you pick value. I'd even go so far as to say you should get your mid-pricers first if you see any you like. Just be sure to get any and all dribbler rookies out of your starting 22. Try to get to 13 keepers
Leave 100k in the bank. Searching for value makes this easier. Then you can get your Touk or whoever for 600k when it turns up at round 6 for a stagnating value pick and cash
As the years go by and as the community gets more experienced and resources like this site and others become more ubiquitous, you need to find ways to separate yourself from the crowd. At the moment, the fashion is to chase last year's points when it should always, always be about what happens next.
Will Setterfield - $348k MID
25 years old and about to cross the 60 game 'breakout' area
One I've not seen discussed a lot at all, even in articles specifically looking at the viability of mid pricers
I think the argument can definitely made that he can be the best mid price pick of the year based on his numbers at Carlton when used predominately as a centre bounce midfielder
In 2020, Setterfield averaged 89.7, however its from rd5 onwards that is most interesting about this year.
Through the first 4 rounds he had 21% cbas for an average of 61.3. From round 5 onwards he had 53% cbas for an average of 99.2, including an average of 104 post bye
This stretch of 12 games is the last stretch of games with regular cbas that he has had
He is now playing on the same team as Merrett and Parish in match sim which would suggest he is part of the starting midfield at the dons
Currently at 1% ownership, is there any interest around here?
25 years old and about to cross the 60 game 'breakout' area
One I've not seen discussed a lot at all, even in articles specifically looking at the viability of mid pricers
I think the argument can definitely made that he can be the best mid price pick of the year based on his numbers at Carlton when used predominately as a centre bounce midfielder
In 2020, Setterfield averaged 89.7, however its from rd5 onwards that is most interesting about this year.
Through the first 4 rounds he had 21% cbas for an average of 61.3. From round 5 onwards he had 53% cbas for an average of 99.2, including an average of 104 post bye
This stretch of 12 games is the last stretch of games with regular cbas that he has had
He is now playing on the same team as Merrett and Parish in match sim which would suggest he is part of the starting midfield at the dons
Currently at 1% ownership, is there any interest around here?
I'm interested in putting him alongside Hopper instead of a Fyfe/Perkins/Milera type in the forward line. Would be handy if he had fwd eligibility
A watch for me in the pre season games along with about 10 other mid pricers. Yeo and Hopper are locked, feel like I need a 3rd mid pricer but no clue who it should be. I like some, hate others, but don't love any of them, find it hard to pick a mid pricer I don't love
A watch for me in the pre season games along with about 10 other mid pricers. Yeo and Hopper are locked, feel like I need a 3rd mid pricer but no clue who it should be. I like some, hate others, but don't love any of them, find it hard to pick a mid pricer I don't love
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I think I'll only take 2 true mid price options. For me Yeo and Ziebell are currently in my team, just feel they're the best option to generate cash and possibly be keepers or at least longer term trades. Does mean I'll miss a stepping stone to a premium which I'll need to think about but does allow me to start 11 true keepers with also the potential of Daicos, Yeo and Ziebell being keepers.