Analysis 2023 Preseason Games
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- Essendon
I could make a team of 16 $500k players and claim I have 16 premiums, but it's not really a fair description of my team is it? As I said, I don't think there's anything wrong with differentiating between players like Sinclair and Daicos who are quite clearly different selections in terms of risk and expectations. But if you think they both deserve to have the same "premium" label then fair enough.
Essendon vs St Kilda
General - Watched 3 quarters. Scrappy, very scrappy but was nice and physical at least, despite the umpires attempts to quell that. Saints just looked much better coached in the conditions, they played to the wind and the Bombers looked like they were going to treat it like Marvel no matter what. Both sides are missing just enough best 22 types to make any predictions really difficult.
Bombers - As mentioned, some real issues with the coaching aspects in this one, just no adapting to the conditions at all, KP were set up 70m from the ball kicking into a huge wind which meant it was just turnover city, which in turn inflates the defenders stats but if they're going to play against conditions at all times it's going to be hard work. Not sure how to read them to be honest, weren't giving much away, had just enough guys out to have no real idea what they're doing. Textbook Scott Brothers' things really.
McGrath - Was really solid down back, got plenty of it. I think they're firmly in the too many chefs region right now but he was the best role wise for them today for mine and looked good. On a positive, if they play this way then supply wont be an issue.
Draper - Was surprised how well he scored as he was smashed around the ground and his ruckwork didn't look decisive, always hard to tell with low definition cameras who got hands on the ruck stuff but wasn't noticeable. Still, you take that score in a really bad game but he wont face many weaker rucks than Marshall so you'd really want to see more. Two games, two crosses on my checklist and I wanted two highlighter worthy checks, so it's a no for me but at least he was one out.
Parish - Had a complete mare, Bytel put minimal attention to him around stoppages but just wasn't out there to find the ball, just trotting basically. Low TOG says he was just getting some run in but not what you want from a unique choice in that price range.
Caldwell - Knee injury in Q3 didn't look great, hopefully alright. Wasn't playing well prior to that either.
Merrett - Was solid, to score 112 in a bit of a nothing game is a strong outcome. Hard to read as his role really wasn't great either, I barely noticed him at the CBA while I was counting but he did seem to be around the ball a lot in general play.
Shiel - Very ordinary game from him.
Weideman - Ordinary game for him, was 2nd ruck in the first half and that was when he did his best work showing mobility around the ground. Looked totally lost up forward.
Setterfield - This one was a shock to me, I was ready to say I barely noticed him and yet he had 25 touches and 6 tackles and a great score. He's that type of player but still a huge disconnect, checking back at scores it wasn't a Q4 special either, I just missed him clearly. If you were thinking about picking him then they were great numbers and to score incognito can often be the best way as when they stand out they're huge, Brodie last year very similar vibe in that regard. Caldwell injured and Shiel trash sure don't hurt him either as those 3 are really fighting for one spot primarily.
Ridley - Hard to read this one also, epic level of supply, no one to defend and "only" 128
He looked to be loose basically all game, which is a big tick, he used it well and was connecting very well with McGrath and Redman on short plays. Definitely a tick for role and scoring. Could well be the right option in his price range if Scott will use him properly. With Laverde and BZT they're fairly undersized though which isn't a great sign as neither of those two have shown much so if they cop a bath he'd be the next man up on a KP lockdown role. Still, it's a big tick from everything he could show this game.
Laverde/BZT/D'Ambrosio/Kelly - All playing defensive roles as expected.
Perkins - Had a really strong role, getting genuine midfield rotations and CBA work, he was one of their best in the 2nd quarter but couldn't find targets to kick to very often. He looked alright but not enough to warrant picking him.
Wright - Had a stinker again, was the biggest proponent of lining up in idiotic spots kicking into the wind, was baffling but both he and Weideman have struggled with footy smarts a lot in their career and this game kind of just highlighted that.
Durham - Wing, solid enough.
Jones - 3rd forward, did a bit but not enough and still not a lot of progress here, lot of physical potential but taking the scenic route on development and still doesn't look like he's found out where the gym is at Windy Hill.
Redman - Can't pick him off his preseason. McGrath is a clear negative, Ridley seems more released and took a lot of the kick-ins from my count and Redman just not getting the free and easy ball. He may well be the option but he hasn't showed it to me and too many concerns to start him, imo.
Davey Jnr - Was very solid early, faded a fair bit. Had a solid role pushing up the ground and working back, seemed to get stuck a lot deeper forward after the first quarter. Bench only but a solid option to mine, Walla really doesn't look remotely fit so would think he's the prime sub candidate and first drop as well.
Martin - Played wing today, was solid and one of their best but still not a great fantasy role. Can't start him based on his two games, especially with both Langford and Heppell out of this game who would take the wing slots I'd think.
McDonald-Tipungwuti - There's just not mincing words here, he looks completely out of shape and not AFL ready. Can see sides exposing him. More worrying is that all the extra weight seems to have cost him a chunk of his speed, never seen him look so slow. Skills are still sharp but he'd be sub bait, which is good really for the other two small forwards, if he's there. I'm not sure who Snelling killed at Essendon but I find it unfathomable he's behind Walla right now.
Menzie - Started well, can't see him being worth the premium with his role, I'd say Davey is basically the same pick and 30k cheaper, I do think Menzie is slightly ahead as a player and job security but it's only just and the 30k is better. Personally I'd rather the small forwards in better sides but both are viable options for round 1.
General - Watched 3 quarters. Scrappy, very scrappy but was nice and physical at least, despite the umpires attempts to quell that. Saints just looked much better coached in the conditions, they played to the wind and the Bombers looked like they were going to treat it like Marvel no matter what. Both sides are missing just enough best 22 types to make any predictions really difficult.
Bombers - As mentioned, some real issues with the coaching aspects in this one, just no adapting to the conditions at all, KP were set up 70m from the ball kicking into a huge wind which meant it was just turnover city, which in turn inflates the defenders stats but if they're going to play against conditions at all times it's going to be hard work. Not sure how to read them to be honest, weren't giving much away, had just enough guys out to have no real idea what they're doing. Textbook Scott Brothers' things really.
McGrath - Was really solid down back, got plenty of it. I think they're firmly in the too many chefs region right now but he was the best role wise for them today for mine and looked good. On a positive, if they play this way then supply wont be an issue.
Draper - Was surprised how well he scored as he was smashed around the ground and his ruckwork didn't look decisive, always hard to tell with low definition cameras who got hands on the ruck stuff but wasn't noticeable. Still, you take that score in a really bad game but he wont face many weaker rucks than Marshall so you'd really want to see more. Two games, two crosses on my checklist and I wanted two highlighter worthy checks, so it's a no for me but at least he was one out.
Parish - Had a complete mare, Bytel put minimal attention to him around stoppages but just wasn't out there to find the ball, just trotting basically. Low TOG says he was just getting some run in but not what you want from a unique choice in that price range.
Caldwell - Knee injury in Q3 didn't look great, hopefully alright. Wasn't playing well prior to that either.
Merrett - Was solid, to score 112 in a bit of a nothing game is a strong outcome. Hard to read as his role really wasn't great either, I barely noticed him at the CBA while I was counting but he did seem to be around the ball a lot in general play.
Shiel - Very ordinary game from him.
Weideman - Ordinary game for him, was 2nd ruck in the first half and that was when he did his best work showing mobility around the ground. Looked totally lost up forward.
Setterfield - This one was a shock to me, I was ready to say I barely noticed him and yet he had 25 touches and 6 tackles and a great score. He's that type of player but still a huge disconnect, checking back at scores it wasn't a Q4 special either, I just missed him clearly. If you were thinking about picking him then they were great numbers and to score incognito can often be the best way as when they stand out they're huge, Brodie last year very similar vibe in that regard. Caldwell injured and Shiel trash sure don't hurt him either as those 3 are really fighting for one spot primarily.
Ridley - Hard to read this one also, epic level of supply, no one to defend and "only" 128
He looked to be loose basically all game, which is a big tick, he used it well and was connecting very well with McGrath and Redman on short plays. Definitely a tick for role and scoring. Could well be the right option in his price range if Scott will use him properly. With Laverde and BZT they're fairly undersized though which isn't a great sign as neither of those two have shown much so if they cop a bath he'd be the next man up on a KP lockdown role. Still, it's a big tick from everything he could show this game.Laverde/BZT/D'Ambrosio/Kelly - All playing defensive roles as expected.
Perkins - Had a really strong role, getting genuine midfield rotations and CBA work, he was one of their best in the 2nd quarter but couldn't find targets to kick to very often. He looked alright but not enough to warrant picking him.
Wright - Had a stinker again, was the biggest proponent of lining up in idiotic spots kicking into the wind, was baffling but both he and Weideman have struggled with footy smarts a lot in their career and this game kind of just highlighted that.
Durham - Wing, solid enough.
Jones - 3rd forward, did a bit but not enough and still not a lot of progress here, lot of physical potential but taking the scenic route on development and still doesn't look like he's found out where the gym is at Windy Hill.
Redman - Can't pick him off his preseason. McGrath is a clear negative, Ridley seems more released and took a lot of the kick-ins from my count and Redman just not getting the free and easy ball. He may well be the option but he hasn't showed it to me and too many concerns to start him, imo.
Davey Jnr - Was very solid early, faded a fair bit. Had a solid role pushing up the ground and working back, seemed to get stuck a lot deeper forward after the first quarter. Bench only but a solid option to mine, Walla really doesn't look remotely fit so would think he's the prime sub candidate and first drop as well.
Martin - Played wing today, was solid and one of their best but still not a great fantasy role. Can't start him based on his two games, especially with both Langford and Heppell out of this game who would take the wing slots I'd think.
McDonald-Tipungwuti - There's just not mincing words here, he looks completely out of shape and not AFL ready. Can see sides exposing him. More worrying is that all the extra weight seems to have cost him a chunk of his speed, never seen him look so slow. Skills are still sharp but he'd be sub bait, which is good really for the other two small forwards, if he's there. I'm not sure who Snelling killed at Essendon but I find it unfathomable he's behind Walla right now.
Menzie - Started well, can't see him being worth the premium with his role, I'd say Davey is basically the same pick and 30k cheaper, I do think Menzie is slightly ahead as a player and job security but it's only just and the 30k is better. Personally I'd rather the small forwards in better sides but both are viable options for round 1.
Saints - I think they'd be pretty happy with this. Adapted well to the conditions after a shocking start, went harder for longer and outworked the Bombers, also kicked really straight when the game was on the line. Neither side really looks destined for much this year but there were plenty of positives.
Gresham - MUCH worse role this week, pretty much permanent HF, I didn't notice a single CBA. He played solidly but not relevant if he'll play that role basically at all this season and there are just better options.
Crouch - He's a real problem for Steele, imo. He played solidly and is just in the way of the things that pushed Steele to the elite level, he's definitely fantasy relevant in DT formats also, can find the pill like few others.
NWM - His kick-in stats are a bit misleading when they come out, took the bulk in Q3 after Sinclair went on ball and the Bombers missed several shots rapidly while this was happening. Was clearly the 2nd/other kick-in taker to Sinclair though so still a big positive to take away. Was solid and the role was good. Like McGrath, I actually think he's more relevant in that he's definitely a concern for Sinclair, he's not a big sideways guy, likes to go long and to take off with the ball. Not dissimilar to Blakey at Sydney and how he impacted Lloyd by constantly removing the ball from the area. Sinclair also does this but last year everyone else would funnel to him and at the premium end it's only a 10% drop off to irrelevance.
Steele - As mentioned, I think Crouch is an issue. Positives is he looked fit and tackled well, negatives is Crouch really did get in the way and because he rarely gives it to teammates and generally just hack kicks it, he also clears the area that Steele works in and takes away scoring opportunities. It also hurts when he's the guy who kicks to Steele when he's trying to be a linkup option as it rarely will hit the target. Basically I gave a tick physically but I'm not sure his drop off last year was entirely injury related and that he'll bounce back. Still a decent option and concerns may be overblown as he was at 119 before the injury but definitely a question, for mine he's more good option than lock, he doesn't really look like 130 is likely (hat is ready for eating).
Owens - Was actually really good, cheap enough to at least consider. Played as the third tall and looked a lot better with the extra tall to help him, was solid aerially and exceptional in his pressure work at ground level. He wont kick 3 every week, or even most, but his pressure work will be constant and if he's being used around the ground as a marking target that's a very handy extra avenue to points. Definitely should be considered after this game. Disclaimer that obviously wont face Essendon every week and I think the scrappy conditions made it easier to bring the ball to ground and involve him whilst in cleaner conditions probably less contests for him. Solid bet to make cash with good JS, whether he's worth the premium probably comes down to who else makes it round one.
Clark - Solid role in the middle, didn't score well though and needs to at his price. No reason the role can't hold up and Windhager injury can only help if it's long term but he just struggles to put it all together. Think there's better options but couldn't blame someone taking the role over the production as it's a great role for a DEF listed guy and he does have some scoring chops.
Byrnes/Paton - Both played wing, both probably go out for Hill given how well Wood played on the other wing and how nothing they both played.
Stocker - Played really solidly again and definitely shaping as an option for our teams. Couple of guys to come in and I always hate the premium when I don't think the JS comes with it but his role was solid and he'll score ok in it. Will likely be better options but he exists at least.
Butler/Higgins - Small forwards as expected.
Windhager - Hurt his hand very early and was effectively subbed out. Not a great sign and suspect there's a fracture of some kind.
Marshall - He didn't ruck well but everything else was sublime. Basically showed all the things he can do that Campbell can't as a ruck which is good given the ruckwork also highlighted the reverse but he was so good around the ground you have to use him that way. Biggest highlight for me was his positioning behind the ball, he dropped probably 5 more intercept marks which while not ideal is also a fantastic sign that he read the play and positioned for it in the first place. I wish he was better in the ruck as Draper is one of the weakest rucks but ultimately they've got a bunch of bulls under him (literally all they've got) so winning taps is probably secondary, his ability to win the ball back and be an option for long kicks around the ground is worth more than hitouts, imo. That they didn't play Campbell is also a nice factor. Cordy is capable as a 2nd ruck at least as well.
Howard/Wilkie/Battle/Webster - Defensive positions as you'd expect from them.
Cordy - Played FF and 2nd ruck, he's there to bring the ball to ground and he mostly did that, anything he does with the ball is just an added bonus but he'll fight the good fight at least.
Bytel - Came on after Windhager's injury, played a solid game. His tackling intensity was much better than most in this game and a real standout. Depending how long Windhager is out he might be an option. They've got Ross and Jones who didn't play, I'd personally be giving Bytel a shot over Ross, Jones does give them stuff that the rest don't so that's more of a line ball, no idea where those two are at and why they're not playing though.
Phillipou - He was alright, tough role playing as a genuine HF, he's a good marking target for a kid but with Gresham, Higgins and Butler he's definitely getting the best aerial defender of the smalls so probably will end up almost a negative trait in that he gets thwarted on that. Kicking is his standout skill. I feel fairly confident in saying that he's the worst option of the premium priced first year guys, which means he probably ends up the best of them. His role is tough and he shows no interest in tackling or physical contests at ground level right now which are two of the easier ways to create a nice floor for the scoring. He's also definitely going to be sub bait when you look at their side. Really like him as a prospect but definitely the one I would be fading if all make the cut. He was solid though today.
Wood - His game was exceptional. Can't trust his body and he doesn't do it consistently but he's like the poor man's Dawson, when he plays like this you just wonder why he can't do it regularly as he does everything well.
Sinclair - As mentioned under NWM, I have some concerns here that he will hurt him, they only grew from this game. Sinclair was ordinary and definitely in preseason vibe mode but the sharing of the ball is a concern to me. I love him as a player but I personally have too many questions I want answers to for me to start him, can't fault those that do, ripping player who definitely could be the top defender. I struggle to see much upside potential though so realistically he's fair value and can be had at that price later on with more data to work with.
Caminiti - He was really solid but the scoring is pretty indicative of his role. Played as the deepest forward primarily and showed some really decent traits for the future but he's undersized and will be worked off the ball consistently. If he played with a midfield that could kick I'm not sure that would be an issue but he doesn't so he's going to have to win contests consistently. I actually think he makes good cash in his ~6 weeks but he goes out after that so if he hasn't spiked in that range he's going to be a waste. Saints do get Essendon and Suns early in the season though. To date he's the best 102k option I've seen (I think!) that looks genuinely likely to play, I do expect Cincotta to take that mantle but only seen one game of his so far.
Gresham - MUCH worse role this week, pretty much permanent HF, I didn't notice a single CBA. He played solidly but not relevant if he'll play that role basically at all this season and there are just better options.
Crouch - He's a real problem for Steele, imo. He played solidly and is just in the way of the things that pushed Steele to the elite level, he's definitely fantasy relevant in DT formats also, can find the pill like few others.
NWM - His kick-in stats are a bit misleading when they come out, took the bulk in Q3 after Sinclair went on ball and the Bombers missed several shots rapidly while this was happening. Was clearly the 2nd/other kick-in taker to Sinclair though so still a big positive to take away. Was solid and the role was good. Like McGrath, I actually think he's more relevant in that he's definitely a concern for Sinclair, he's not a big sideways guy, likes to go long and to take off with the ball. Not dissimilar to Blakey at Sydney and how he impacted Lloyd by constantly removing the ball from the area. Sinclair also does this but last year everyone else would funnel to him and at the premium end it's only a 10% drop off to irrelevance.
Steele - As mentioned, I think Crouch is an issue. Positives is he looked fit and tackled well, negatives is Crouch really did get in the way and because he rarely gives it to teammates and generally just hack kicks it, he also clears the area that Steele works in and takes away scoring opportunities. It also hurts when he's the guy who kicks to Steele when he's trying to be a linkup option as it rarely will hit the target. Basically I gave a tick physically but I'm not sure his drop off last year was entirely injury related and that he'll bounce back. Still a decent option and concerns may be overblown as he was at 119 before the injury but definitely a question, for mine he's more good option than lock, he doesn't really look like 130 is likely (hat is ready for eating).
Owens - Was actually really good, cheap enough to at least consider. Played as the third tall and looked a lot better with the extra tall to help him, was solid aerially and exceptional in his pressure work at ground level. He wont kick 3 every week, or even most, but his pressure work will be constant and if he's being used around the ground as a marking target that's a very handy extra avenue to points. Definitely should be considered after this game. Disclaimer that obviously wont face Essendon every week and I think the scrappy conditions made it easier to bring the ball to ground and involve him whilst in cleaner conditions probably less contests for him. Solid bet to make cash with good JS, whether he's worth the premium probably comes down to who else makes it round one.
Clark - Solid role in the middle, didn't score well though and needs to at his price. No reason the role can't hold up and Windhager injury can only help if it's long term but he just struggles to put it all together. Think there's better options but couldn't blame someone taking the role over the production as it's a great role for a DEF listed guy and he does have some scoring chops.
Byrnes/Paton - Both played wing, both probably go out for Hill given how well Wood played on the other wing and how nothing they both played.
Stocker - Played really solidly again and definitely shaping as an option for our teams. Couple of guys to come in and I always hate the premium when I don't think the JS comes with it but his role was solid and he'll score ok in it. Will likely be better options but he exists at least.
Butler/Higgins - Small forwards as expected.
Windhager - Hurt his hand very early and was effectively subbed out. Not a great sign and suspect there's a fracture of some kind.
Marshall - He didn't ruck well but everything else was sublime. Basically showed all the things he can do that Campbell can't as a ruck which is good given the ruckwork also highlighted the reverse but he was so good around the ground you have to use him that way. Biggest highlight for me was his positioning behind the ball, he dropped probably 5 more intercept marks which while not ideal is also a fantastic sign that he read the play and positioned for it in the first place. I wish he was better in the ruck as Draper is one of the weakest rucks but ultimately they've got a bunch of bulls under him (literally all they've got) so winning taps is probably secondary, his ability to win the ball back and be an option for long kicks around the ground is worth more than hitouts, imo. That they didn't play Campbell is also a nice factor. Cordy is capable as a 2nd ruck at least as well.
Howard/Wilkie/Battle/Webster - Defensive positions as you'd expect from them.
Cordy - Played FF and 2nd ruck, he's there to bring the ball to ground and he mostly did that, anything he does with the ball is just an added bonus but he'll fight the good fight at least.
Bytel - Came on after Windhager's injury, played a solid game. His tackling intensity was much better than most in this game and a real standout. Depending how long Windhager is out he might be an option. They've got Ross and Jones who didn't play, I'd personally be giving Bytel a shot over Ross, Jones does give them stuff that the rest don't so that's more of a line ball, no idea where those two are at and why they're not playing though.
Phillipou - He was alright, tough role playing as a genuine HF, he's a good marking target for a kid but with Gresham, Higgins and Butler he's definitely getting the best aerial defender of the smalls so probably will end up almost a negative trait in that he gets thwarted on that. Kicking is his standout skill. I feel fairly confident in saying that he's the worst option of the premium priced first year guys, which means he probably ends up the best of them
. His role is tough and he shows no interest in tackling or physical contests at ground level right now which are two of the easier ways to create a nice floor for the scoring. He's also definitely going to be sub bait when you look at their side. Really like him as a prospect but definitely the one I would be fading if all make the cut. He was solid though today.Wood - His game was exceptional. Can't trust his body and he doesn't do it consistently but he's like the poor man's Dawson, when he plays like this you just wonder why he can't do it regularly as he does everything well.
Sinclair - As mentioned under NWM, I have some concerns here that he will hurt him, they only grew from this game. Sinclair was ordinary and definitely in preseason vibe mode but the sharing of the ball is a concern to me. I love him as a player but I personally have too many questions I want answers to for me to start him, can't fault those that do, ripping player who definitely could be the top defender. I struggle to see much upside potential though so realistically he's fair value and can be had at that price later on with more data to work with.
Caminiti - He was really solid but the scoring is pretty indicative of his role. Played as the deepest forward primarily and showed some really decent traits for the future but he's undersized and will be worked off the ball consistently. If he played with a midfield that could kick I'm not sure that would be an issue but he doesn't so he's going to have to win contests consistently. I actually think he makes good cash in his ~6 weeks but he goes out after that so if he hasn't spiked in that range he's going to be a waste. Saints do get Essendon and Suns early in the season though. To date he's the best 102k option I've seen (I think!) that looks genuinely likely to play, I do expect Cincotta to take that mantle but only seen one game of his so far.
Glad Gulden went on with it. No Mills (or Papley) so still pretty unclear (although Gulden was great last week with Mills anyway)
Considering he never had more than 24% CBA's in any games last year, I guess he's a pretty scary prospect with the FWD status. No doubt he's going to be in the mid rotation (more than 24%) in Round 1.
Considering he never had more than 24% CBA's in any games last year, I guess he's a pretty scary prospect with the FWD status. No doubt he's going to be in the mid rotation (more than 24%) in Round 1.
Glad Gulden went on with it. No Mills (or Papley) so still pretty unclear (although Gulden was great last week with Mills anyway)
Considering he never had more than 24% CBA's in any games last year, I guess he's a pretty scary prospect with the FWD status. No doubt he's going to be in the mid rotation (more than 24%) in Round 1.
Considering he never had more than 24% CBA's in any games last year, I guess he's a pretty scary prospect with the FWD status. No doubt he's going to be in the mid rotation (more than 24%) in Round 1.
Jesus he looks a player though.