Strategy 2023: Rookies Discussion
- Thread starter freowho
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I'm looking at my structure and realise it's very dependent on fielding someone like Sheezel in the forward line.
Don't get me wrong, the kid is an absolute jet. In SC terms (price/role/skills) he reminds me most of Connor Rozee in 2019, who was a great selection - heading up past $400k at his bye.
Problem is, Port were 6 and 5 that year and to the same stage I can see us winning at absolute most 3 games (maybe WCE, maybe St Kilda, maybe Hawthorn) to be 3 and 8. So the opportunity as a forward is much leaner.
Feels line ball from an SC sense but it's one of those 'pick the talent, it finds a way' type of selections.
Don't get me wrong, the kid is an absolute jet. In SC terms (price/role/skills) he reminds me most of Connor Rozee in 2019, who was a great selection - heading up past $400k at his bye.
Problem is, Port were 6 and 5 that year and to the same stage I can see us winning at absolute most 3 games (maybe WCE, maybe St Kilda, maybe Hawthorn) to be 3 and 8. So the opportunity as a forward is much leaner.
Feels line ball from an SC sense but it's one of those 'pick the talent, it finds a way' type of selections.
Not sure "dire" is the right word but the depth is not great. Clearly depends on your mid set up. If you go to the Rate My Team Thread nearly every team with a structure of Ashcroft at M6 has a likely non starter or dubious starter on the mid bench. If you have him at M7 (however you set up to do that) then it looks a lot better. But you are still an injury or bad game away from rookie musical chairs. And this year it appears there fewer 123k mid rookies than previous years.
Bastinac was $94.2k aged 18 in 2010
Gibson was $94.7k aged 25 in 2012, but he didn't debut until Round 12. Was a brilliant midseason downgrade option from Magner/McDonald/Coniglio / a plethora of other GWS rookies. He smashed out 6 x 90+ in 12 games
Gibson was $94.7k aged 25 in 2012, but he didn't debut until Round 12. Was a brilliant midseason downgrade option from Magner/McDonald/Coniglio / a plethora of other GWS rookies. He smashed out 6 x 90+ in 12 games
I think i selected him that year he was a highly rated prospect at the time.
Dusty was a rookie that year and I reckon he was about $160k
That was the year that Jay did the all rookie midfield
I think he will be a better scorer than Rachele last season and I don't think Clarko will leave him isolated out of the play for entire quarters. Also his JS seems to be rock solid. F6 is the position I have probably struggled with the most and it's down to him and Flanders, if he's in then Flanders shifts to F5. Another option is to start someone like Bruhn or Flanders at M6, have Alwyn Davey at F7 and if Sheezel fails, you can always cover him with Flanders/Bruhn swinging back to F6 and play Phillips or another mid rookie on field.
It's a team that is starting from a low base so it will be tough to replicate Rozee's scoring I think.
It's a team that is starting from a low base so it will be tough to replicate Rozee's scoring I think.
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Pick the talent - spot on. Feel I am doing that with Flander, Sheezel and Callaghan. whereas Worpel and Bruhn are role dependent solid players.
What worries me with fading Sheezel is it feel like it is a call option on him being a jet. If they lose a few games and Clark throws him back a bit, the ceiling looks high. I know they have plenty of defenders and this may be just an extra player down back, however, I just dont find the North defenders to be inspiring nor know how to clear the ball with speed. In many ways he could be like Chesser, slow burn @ higher price, just at some point they will hit a purple patch.
What worries me with fading Sheezel is it feel like it is a call option on him being a jet. If they lose a few games and Clark throws him back a bit, the ceiling looks high. I know they have plenty of defenders and this may be just an extra player down back, however, I just dont find the North defenders to be inspiring nor know how to clear the ball with speed. In many ways he could be like Chesser, slow burn @ higher price, just at some point they will hit a purple patch.
Agree with this however role dependent players can be valuable if their roles are good. Bruhn played a great role in the pre-season games but who knows what Chris Scott will do with him. Worpel, not sure where else on the ground he is good (and he's not the greatest midfielder to begin with) but at his price could be an alright value pick.
I think if you're selecting Sheezel you don't really want him to be a slow burn as at his price he probably needs to be at F6 and scoring at decent levels.
I think if you're selecting Sheezel you don't really want him to be a slow burn as at his price he probably needs to be at F6 and scoring at decent levels.
From the reports I've read there's a bit of excitement with what he brings and some thought he deserved a crack late last year. Issue is I think he's got to get past a few to earn an opportunity and we could even opt towards guys in other positions first before he gets a crack. So he's relying on some pretty strong footy in the seconds to break through imo.
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In 2006 it was a flat $87.2k so you could pick up top 10 picks like Murphy, Thomas, JJK, Pendles and Ryder for that price.
Thereafter the top picks were given a premium pricing so e.g. in 2010 Scully was $179.2k, Trengove was $174.2k, Dusty was $169.2k sliding down in $5k increments to $94.2k for your non-premium draftees. It wasn't limited to top 4, e.g. pick 17 Daniel Menzel was $99.2k. Being pick 21, Bastinac was $94.2k.
Guys who were already on an AFL list but hadn't debuted like Shuey, Gumbleton, Phil Davis, Robbie Tarrant, Rhys Stanley were priced at $100.2k.
Rookie draft players like Podsiadly, Crameri and our old friend Relton Roberts were $83.4k.
So in 2023 terms:
Top pick $179.2k = $207.3k in 2023
$100.2k = $123.9k in 2023
$94.2k = $117.3k in 2023
$83.4k = $102.4k in 2023
Thereafter the top picks were given a premium pricing so e.g. in 2010 Scully was $179.2k, Trengove was $174.2k, Dusty was $169.2k sliding down in $5k increments to $94.2k for your non-premium draftees. It wasn't limited to top 4, e.g. pick 17 Daniel Menzel was $99.2k. Being pick 21, Bastinac was $94.2k.
Guys who were already on an AFL list but hadn't debuted like Shuey, Gumbleton, Phil Davis, Robbie Tarrant, Rhys Stanley were priced at $100.2k.
Rookie draft players like Podsiadly, Crameri and our old friend Relton Roberts were $83.4k.
So in 2023 terms:
Top pick $179.2k = $207.3k in 2023
$100.2k = $123.9k in 2023
$94.2k = $117.3k in 2023
$83.4k = $102.4k in 2023
At this stage I’ve gone heavy in the mids (Hopper D6), that leaves Ashcroft M7 and MacKenzie M8. Thinking I will run a FDTP at M11 to loop MacKenzie, Phillips, and Baker. Any recommendations on who? Think I’ve seen Gillbee, and maybe Drury? Chesser another if not named round 1 but think I’ve seen he might be a big sub risk as they work him up? Hoping that maybe Davey won’t get picked and he could be an option.