Strategy 2023: Rookies Discussion

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That was the knock on Constable wasn't it? That he wasn't good defensively? Or was it DE as well?
And since he has been dropped he has been tried in the mid field?

Their injury list is short, Lemmens back after the bye according to the AFL injury list
Unsure of Weller on the knee, some swelling ? so maybe he is back after the bye as well?
Who makes way for them maybe Long and Berry? Can't see Ellis out for long(time)
Where's Constable fit into the GC side?
I have held him since pre season for transparency
As an owner myself i give him no chance, not even in the 26.. Ellis can't even get a game, IMO ellis would be in before constable for one, dominating in the vfl won't get him a game either he did that all of last year and didn't get a game, has done it again this year since being dropped and can;t even make the 26.
 

Darkie

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Humphrey v Weddle. Both appear to have pretty good JS. Weddle probably has the better role for consistent scoring. Humphrey the higher ceiling and will make more cash. Humphrey's bye is better.

With an Oliver to Zerrett trade I can can get either with Cincotta.

For those with the same dilemma, remember you only have to trade out Cincotta tonight (eg to Weddle). You can still switch Weddle to Humprhey tomorrow (before the Hawks game starts) without using another trade.
I was actually discussing Humphrey and Weddle earlier …

Humphrey is projected at 64s, which may be a bit low but could definitely happen in an individual game ... at that level he'd make 54k and 16k before slowly going down again. There aren't many rookies that can average, say, 75, so he's probably got a quick 70-100k in him, but I wouldn't be expecting more than that. Obviously if you think he keeps getting 100s he's a no brainer, but that seems unlikely. He has DPP and a good, albeit early, bye. Okay draw.

On Weddle, he's projected at 63s and makes 50 and 36k on that basis before plateauing. He is now averaging 68, so he could make a bit more than that. He also has the last bye, which is good for cash gen, but seems a popular one, so you may need to trade him for that. He also seemed to get lucky last game, I think for both of his goals. Toughish draw.

Overall I feel like they are fairly marginal, unless you're happy with a quick burst of cash (which I've done several times - it's a fine strategy so long as you have trades and reasonable expectations, I think). Both probably have decent JS for rookies. I think Weddle is probably a bigger risk of disappointing.
 

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That was the knock on Constable wasn't it? That he wasn't good defensively? Or was it DE as well?
And since he has been dropped he has been tried in the mid field?

Their injury list is short, Lemmens back after the bye according to the AFL injury list
Unsure of Weller on the knee, some swelling ? so maybe he is back after the bye as well?
Who makes way for them maybe Long and Berry? Can't see Ellis out for long(time)
Where's Constable fit into the GC side?
I have held him since pre season for transparency
Budarick has recently gone from a long running “TBC” to being 3-4 weeks away. May not be a huge issue, but it’s one more in the mix.
 
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Budarick has recently gone from a long running “TBC” to being 3-4 weeks away. May not be a huge issue, but it’s one more in the mix.
Yeah, so 3 or 4 away plus twos games for conditioning, so probably later than sooner?
Still can't see where Constable fits in without some injuries?
And before we know Touk will be up and about! He's been out 5 weeks already, so maybe he'll be coming around the corner soon?
 
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I was actually discussing Humphrey and Weddle earlier …

Humphrey is projected at 64s, which may be a bit low but could definitely happen in an individual game ... at that level he'd make 54k and 16k before slowly going down again. There aren't many rookies that can average, say, 75, so he's probably got a quick 70-100k in him, but I wouldn't be expecting more than that. Obviously if you think he keeps getting 100s he's a no brainer, but that seems unlikely. He has DPP and a good, albeit early, bye. Okay draw.

On Weddle, he's projected at 63s and makes 50 and 36k on that basis before plateauing. He is now averaging 68, so he could make a bit more than that. He also has the last bye, which is good for cash gen, but seems a popular one, so you may need to trade him for that. He also seemed to get lucky last game, I think for both of his goals. Toughish draw.

Overall I feel like they are fairly marginal, unless you're happy with a quick burst of cash (which I've done several times - it's a fine strategy so long as you have trades and reasonable expectations, I think). Both probably have decent JS for rookies. I think Weddle is probably a bigger risk of disappointing.
Thanks mate. Bloody good insight.
 
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H/Sun article on the mid season draft rookies

"Here are the six mid-season draftees that coaches should be keeping an eye on.

Ryan Maric (West Coast) FWD
Likely price: $102,400 SC average: 87.5 (VFL, two matches)

Expect Maric to be given opportunity at some stage in the back half of the year after an eye-catching start to the season from the No.1 mid-season pick. The agile and long-kicking 193cm forward posted scores of 148, 97 and 108 in the Coates Talent League for Gippsland Power and raised the bat for a ton in his very first VFL game for Box Hill, where he tallied 15 disposals, eight marks, two goals and 101 points. His 12 touches in his second game yielded 74 points, showing that he doesn’t need a lot of the ball to get points on the board. He also showed some promising signs in defence in the second Young Guns game, racking up 23 disposals, eight rebound-50s and 89 points, but he is more likely to be used up forward for the Eagles. The club’s injury woes should put Maric right in the mix for a debut, but will it come when we need it most during the byes?


Mitch Hardie (Geelong) MID
Likely price: $102,400 SC average: 126 (SANFL)

Geelong’s depleted midfield has been shown up in recent weeks – could the ready-made Hardie be called on to help fill the void left by Patrick Dangerfield and Cam Guthrie? If he does, the 25-year-old looks an attractive proposition after producing some monster scores in a breakout SANFL year for Woodville-West Torrens. The midfielder opened the year with totals of 189, 178 and 132 and has also registered a score of 167, after just averaging 77 points the previous season. Hardie has shown a good inside-outside mix, averaging 25.7 disposals, 16.3 uncontested possessions, 6.4 tackles and 5.6 clearances across his seven matches. But whether he can break into the reigning premier’s side, let alone hold down a midfield spot, remains to be seen.

Quinton Narkle (Port Adelaide) MID
Likely price: TBC SC Ave: 93 (VFL)

If the KFC SuperCoach gods are feeling generous, Narkle could be in for a serious discount at the Power thanks to two sub-affected years that significantly lowered his KFC SuperCoach averages. The former Cat’s average of 52 points last year included two scores of 26 (subbed out) and 27 (subbed in), while he was injected into four games in 2021, where he averaged just 55 from 14 matches. He also had games as the unused sub in both, but they don’t count in SuperCoach price calculations. The 25-year-old has earned a second AFL chance after averaging 20 disposals, five clearances and 93 points for Essendon’s VFL side, and you’d expect him to be called on at some stage. Narkle has noted scoring potential as a midfielder, amassing scores of 123 and 134 inside his first 10 games at AFL level, and averaged 79 points in his first four games of 2020 before injury struck. But to pick him you’d have to be sure of his job security, something that was never in his favour at the Cats, and may not be at the Power, either.


Could Quinton Narkle enter KFC SuperCoach calculations? Picture: Mike Owen/AFL Photos/via Getty Images
Caleb Poulter (Western Bulldogs) MID
Likely price: TBC SC Ave: 75 (VFL)

Poulter was the other ex-AFL player to be taken in the mid-season draft. The former Magpie has averaged 75 SuperCoach points in an outside role for the Bulldogs' VFL side, and could prove to be another of Luke Beveridge’s Footscray role players – think cheapies Anthony Scott, Robbie McComb and Co. Poulter was a SuperCoach rookie for us back in 2021 when he averaged 60 points per game, but he played just the one match for the Pies last year for a score of 55. Even with that discount, he may be too expensive to consider in KFC SuperCoach, especially if his role isn’t fantasy friendly.

Harry Arnold (Sydney) DEF
Likely price: $102,400 SC Ave: 71 (VFL)

The Swans appeared set to pick Oscar McDonald to help fill their key defensive crisis, instead they went with the 24-year-old Arnold. The athletic key defender has averaged 13.8 disposals, 7.8 marks, 4.8 intercepts, 2.5 intercepts marks and 71 SuperCoach points for Brisbane’s VFL side, and has the frame and traits to play right away. He hasn’t been setting the world on fire from a scoring perspective, but it’d be hard to pass up a $102,400 mature-age defender if he gets a run in the byes – especially with the Swans playing in the treacherous round 14-15 period.


Jack Buller (Sydney) FWD-RUC?
Likely price: $102,400 SC Ave: 106

There’s a joke here involving cash cows and Buller Creamy Classics but I can’t quite work it out. That aside, the Swans recruit, like Arnold, is capable of playing this year. The Swans’ injury woes aren’t quite as bad up forward, but 209cm ruckman Lachlan McAndrew played a meagre 43 per cent game time against the Blues, and Buller showed great signs as a forward-ruck at WAFL level. Buller has averaged 16 disposals, 7.6 marks, 2.2 contested marks 106 SuperCoach points across his five WAFL matches, but he succumbed to a calf complaint in his most recent clash last weekend, which could delay his push for a senior debut. "
 
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Good rookie performances in the VFL (WAFL&SANFL both had byes):
Deven Robertsen (202k MID, BRL) had 39 disposals (14 kicks), 2 marks, 1 tackle and 1.0 for 106AF. BE of 117.
Jaspa Fletcher (157k MID, BRL) had 30 disposals (16 kicks), 12 marks, 3 tackles and 2.0 for 139AF.
James Madden (148k DEF, BRL) had 25 disposals (14 kicks), 3 marks, 2 tackles and 0.1 for 82AF.
Kai Lohmann (146k FWD, BRL) had 22 disposals (17 kicks), 9 marks, 1 tackle and 7.1 for 130AF.
Blake Coleman (123k FWD, BRL) had 16 disposals (11 kicks), 4 marks, 2 tackles and 3.1 for 82AF.
Jaxon Binns (117k MID/FWD, CAR) had 30 disposals (21 kicks), 4 marks and 5 tackles for 108AF. Get this man a game!
Nick Bryan (200k RUC/FWD, ESS) had 25 disposals (19 kicks), 11 marks, 2 tackles and 37HO for 142AF. Seems to be coming along very nicely this year. At the wrong club though unfortunately with Draper and Phillips in front of him.
Lewis Hayes (117k DEF, ESS) had 21 disposals (18 kicks), 10 marks and no tackles for 84AF.
Patrick Voss (123k FWD, ESS) had 17 disposals (12 kicks), 7 marks, 2 tackles and 3.1 for 95AF.
Charlie Constable (123k DEF/MID, GCS) had 31 disposals (18 kicks), 6 marks, 8 tackles and 1.0 for 130AF. Led the Suns in the tackles column this week. He has to be getting close.
Ned Moyle (123k RUC, GCS) had 21 disposals (10 kicks), 6 marks, no tackles, 38HO and 1.0 for 111AF.
James Tsitas (123k MID/FWD, GCS) had 20 disposals (13 kicks), 3 marks, 5 tackles and 3.0 for 94AF.
Josh Fahey (123k DEF/MID, GWS) had 43 disposals (25 kicks), 14 marks and 3 tackles for 163AF. Huge game and has to be rewarded soon.
Harry Rowston (175k MID, GWS) had 27 disposals (19 kicks), 7 marks and 8 tackles for 124AF.
Wade Derksen (123k FWD, GWS) had 15 disposals (13 kicks), 9 marks, no tackles and 3.3 for 91AF. A few very good performances so far this year for Derksen. I wonder if they give Cadman a run in the 2's and give Derksen an AFL game.
Jason Gillbee (102k DEF/MID, GWS) had 23 disposals (14 kicks), 7 marks, 2 tackles and 0.1 for 90AF.
Henry Hustwaite (117k MID, HAW) had 26 disposals (11 kicks), 5 marks and 6 tackles for 102AF.
Bailey Macdonald (117k DEF, HAW) had 21 disposals (15 kicks), 9 marks and 2 tackles for 89AF.
Daniel Turner (123k DEF, MEL) had 22 disposals (17 kicks), 13 marks and no tackles for 97AF.
Bailey Laurie (123k MID/FWD, MEL) had 23 disposals (11 kicks), 5 marks, 2 tackles and 2.0 for 93AF.
Taj Woewodin (123k MID/FWD, MEL) had 22 disposals (13 kicks), 5 marks, no tackles and 1.1 for 74AF.
Cooper Harvey (117k MID/FWD, NTH) had 20 disposals (10 kicks), 6 marks, no tackles and 5.0 for 98AF.
Jack Bytel (116k MID, STK) had 36 disposals (16 kicks), 3 marks and 2 tackles for 106AF. If he can get some consistent JS, he should score really well at that price.
Leo Connolly (123k DEF, STK) had 30 disposals (15 kicks), 5 marks, no tackles and 0.1 for 91AF.
Corey Warner (123k MID/FWD, SYD) had 26 disposals (14 kicks), 4 marks, 5 tackles and 1.0 for 102AF.
Lachlan Rankin (123k DEF, SYD) had 21 disposals (15 kicks), 6 marks and 5 tackles for 95AF.

Adelaide, Collingwood, Fremantle, Geelong, Port Adelaide, West Coast and Western Bulldogs all had byes.
Good rookie performances in the VFL/WAFL/SANFL:
*This is from 2 weeks ago (round 11 AFL), I'll post this week's after the Swans v Saints game.
Luke Nankervis (123k MID/FWD, ADE) had 19 disposals (11 kicks), 5 marks and 2 tackles for 70AF.
Deven Robertsen (202k MID/FWD, BRL) had 25 disposals (9 kicks), 3 marks and 21 tackles (yes... you read that right) for 144AF.
Harry Sharp (161k MID, BRL) had 23 disposals (15 kicks), 8 marks, 5 tackles and 2.0 for 111AF.
Jaxon Binns (117k MID/FWD, CAR) had 31 disposals (23 kicks), 9 marks, 1 tackle and 1.0 for 123AF.
Edward Allan (126k MID, COL) had 22 disposals (12 kicks), 4 marks and 2 tackles for 74AF.
Rhett Montgomerie (102k DEF, ESS) had 19 disposals (15 kicks), 10 marks and 2 tackles for 91AF.
Corey Wagner (117k DEF/MID, FRE) had 33 disposals (24 kicks), 4 marks and 4 tackles.
Charlie Constable (123k DEF/MID, GCS) had 35 disposals (25 kicks), 8 marks and 2 tackles for 127AF.
Bohdi Uwland (123k DEF/MID, GCS) had 23 disposals (14 kicks), 5 marks and 1 tackle for 76AF.
Connor Blakely (123k MID, GCS) had 23 disposals (10 kicks), 5 marks, 2 tackles and 1.0 for 87AF.
Brodie McLaughlin (102k FWD, GCS) had 20 disposals (16 kicks), 10 marks, no tackles and 2.2 for 100AF.
Ned Long (165k MID, HAW) had 38 disposals (17 kicks), 5 marks, 12 tackles and 3.0 for 169AF. Huge game.
Henry Hustwaite (117k MID, HAW) had 28 disposals (9 kicks), 3 marks, 8 tackles and 0.2 for 103AF.
Joshua Bennetts (102k MID/FWD, HAW) had 17 disposals (9 kicks), 5 marks, 3 tackles and 2.0 for 84AF.
Josh Sinn (123k MID/FWD, PTA) had 24 disposals (18 kicks), 7 marks, 2 tackles and 2.0 for 104AF.
Leo Connolly (123k DEF, STK) had 28 disposals (11 kicks), 2 marks and 4 tackles for 86AF.
Jack Peris (123k MID/FWD, STK) had 19 disposals (10 kicks), 3 marks, 5 tackles and 0.1 for 80AF.
Angus Sheldrick (165k MID/FWD, SYD) had 36 disposals (20 kicks), 5 marks, 4 tackles and 0.1 for 118AF.
Lachlan Rankin (123k DEF, SYD) had 23 disposals (12 kicks), 7 marks and 2 tackles for 89AF.
Caleb Mitchell (117k DEF/MID) had 21 disposals (13 kicks), 6 marks, 2 tackles and 1.1 for 85AF.
Will Gould (152k DEF, SYD) had 21 disposals (18 kicks), 5 marks and 1 tackle for 80AF.
Zane Trew (175k MID/FWD, WCE) had 30 disposals (12 kicks), 2 marks, 4 tackles and 1.1.
Coby Burgiel (117k MID/FWD, WCE) had 21 disposals (19 kicks), 4 marks and 1 tackle.
Toby McLean (175k MID/FWD, WBD) had 30 disposals (11 kicks), 6 marks, 4 tackles and 1.0 for 109AF.

GWS and Richmond both had a bye.
 
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Good rookie performances in the VFL/WAFL/SANFL:
*This is from 2 weeks ago (round 11 AFL), I'll post this week's after the Swans v Saints game.
Luke Nankervis (123k MID/FWD, ADE) had 19 disposals (11 kicks), 5 marks and 2 tackles for 70AF.
Deven Robertsen (202k MID/FWD, BRL) had 25 disposals (9 kicks), 3 marks and 21 tackles (yes... you read that right) for 144AF.
Harry Sharp (161k MID, BRL) had 23 disposals (15 kicks), 8 marks, 5 tackles and 2.0 for 111AF.
Jaxon Binns (117k MID/FWD, CAR) had 31 disposals (23 kicks), 9 marks, 1 tackle and 1.0 for 123AF.
Edward Allan (126k MID, COL) had 22 disposals (12 kicks), 4 marks and 2 tackles for 74AF.
Rhett Montgomerie (102k DEF, ESS) had 19 disposals (15 kicks), 10 marks and 2 tackles for 91AF.
Corey Wagner (117k DEF/MID, FRE) had 33 disposals (24 kicks), 4 marks and 4 tackles.
Charlie Constable (123k DEF/MID, GCS) had 35 disposals (25 kicks), 8 marks and 2 tackles for 127AF.
Bohdi Uwland (123k DEF/MID, GCS) had 23 disposals (14 kicks), 5 marks and 1 tackle for 76AF.
Connor Blakely (123k MID, GCS) had 23 disposals (10 kicks), 5 marks, 2 tackles and 1.0 for 87AF.
Brodie McLaughlin (102k FWD, GCS) had 20 disposals (16 kicks), 10 marks, no tackles and 2.2 for 100AF.
Ned Long (165k MID, HAW) had 38 disposals (17 kicks), 5 marks, 12 tackles and 3.0 for 169AF. Huge game.
Henry Hustwaite (117k MID, HAW) had 28 disposals (9 kicks), 3 marks, 8 tackles and 0.2 for 103AF.
Joshua Bennetts (102k MID/FWD, HAW) had 17 disposals (9 kicks), 5 marks, 3 tackles and 2.0 for 84AF.
Josh Sinn (123k MID/FWD, PTA) had 24 disposals (18 kicks), 7 marks, 2 tackles and 2.0 for 104AF.
Leo Connolly (123k DEF, STK) had 28 disposals (11 kicks), 2 marks and 4 tackles for 86AF.
Jack Peris (123k MID/FWD, STK) had 19 disposals (10 kicks), 3 marks, 5 tackles and 0.1 for 80AF.
Angus Sheldrick (165k MID/FWD, SYD) had 36 disposals (20 kicks), 5 marks, 4 tackles and 0.1 for 118AF.
Lachlan Rankin (123k DEF, SYD) had 23 disposals (12 kicks), 7 marks and 2 tackles for 89AF.
Caleb Mitchell (117k DEF/MID) had 21 disposals (13 kicks), 6 marks, 2 tackles and 1.1 for 85AF.
Will Gould (152k DEF, SYD) had 21 disposals (18 kicks), 5 marks and 1 tackle for 80AF.
Zane Trew (175k MID/FWD, WCE) had 30 disposals (12 kicks), 2 marks, 4 tackles and 1.1.
Coby Burgiel (117k MID/FWD, WCE) had 21 disposals (19 kicks), 4 marks and 1 tackle.
Toby McLean (175k MID/FWD, WBD) had 30 disposals (11 kicks), 6 marks, 4 tackles and 1.0 for 109AF.

GWS and Richmond both had a bye.
Good rookie performances in the VFL/WAFL/SANFL:
Jaxon Binns (117k MID/FWD, CAR) had 35 disposals (29 kicks), 9 marks and no tackles for 126AF. Still can't manage to break into the 26 let alone the 22, it's baffling.
Finlay Macrae (123k MID/FWD, COL) had 25 disposals (9 kicks), 2 marks, 4 tackles and 0.1 for 83AF. Thought he might be a chance with De Goey out but with Lipinski and the like coming in I can't see it happening.
Will Kelly (123k DEF, COL) had 23 disposals (11 kicks), 10 marks and 3 tackles for 96AF.
Jakob Ryan (117k DEF, COL) had 20 disposals (11 kicks), 5 marks and no tackles for 57AF.
Kaine Baldwin (172k FWD, ESS) had 21 disposals (17 kicks), 12 marks and 1 tackle for 98AF. Hard to see him returning with Laverde and Kelly back.
Tex Wanganeen (123k FWD, ESS) had 20 disposals (13 kicks), 5 marks, 5 tackles and 2.2 for 103AF.
Nick Bryan (200k RUC/FWD, ESS) had 19 disposals (12 kicks), 2 marks, 2 tackles and 32HO for 94AF.
Karl Worner (123k DEF/MID, FRE) had 19 disposals (11 kicks), 3 marks and 2 tackles.
Sam Sturt (156k FWD, FRE) had 17 disposals (10 kicks), 4 marks, 3 tackles and 2.0. In the 22 for Freo this week.
Charlie Constable (123k DEF/MID, GCS) had 29 disposals (23 kicks), 7 marks and 2 tackles for 110AF.
James Tsitas (123k MID/FWD, GCS) had 27 disposals (20 kicks), 6 marks, 4 tackles and 0.1 for 109AF.
Connor Blakely (123k MID, GCS) had 22 disposals (10 kicks), 3 marks and 4 tackles for 77AF.
Oskar Faulkhead (123k MID/FWD, GCS) had 15 disposals (10 kicks), 9 marks, 6 tackles and 1.0 for 97AF.
Brodie McLaughlin (102k FWD, GCS) had 14 disposals (9 kicks), 4 marks, 2 tackles and 3.1 for 74AF.
Cameron Fleeton (123k DEF, GWS) had 32 disposals (18 kicks), 8 marks and 1 tackle for 110AF. On Sunday's extended bench and will be on the bubble if selected.
Harry Rowston (175k MID, GWS) had 26 disposals (15 kicks), 8 marks and no tackles for 79AF.
Wade Derksen (123k FWD, GWS) had 17 disposals (11 kicks), 5 marks, 4 tackles and 2.2 for 90AF.
Taj Woewodin (123k MID/FWD, MEL) had 24 disposals (12 kicks), 2 marks, 7 tackles and 0.1 for 84AF.
Blake Howes (123k MID/FWD, MEL) had 23 disposals (14 kicks), 8 marks and 1tackle for 79AF.
Bailey Laurie (123k MID/FWD, MEL) had 22 disposals (15 kicks), 3 marks, 7 tackles and 0.1 for 100AF.
Francis Evans (167k FWD, PTA) had 19 disposals (12 kicks), 6 marks, 3 tackles and 2.3 for 92AF.
Bigoa Nyuon (150k DEF, RIC) had 15 disposals (10 kicks), 5 marks, 1 tackle and 2.7 for 89AF. Would want to improve his goalkicking!
Campbell Chesser (139k DEF/MID, WCE) had 19 disposals (7 kicks), 1 mark and 4 tackles. Not enough to be selected this week. Could be sub.
Toby McLean (175k MID/FWD, WBD) had 19 disposals (10 kicks), 3 marks, 6 tackles and 0.1 for 78AF.

Brisbane, Sandringham (St. Kilda) and Sydney all had byes.
 
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