2023: SC Planning Thread
- Thread starter Gruffles
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Warner and Mills to play mid and forward.
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/aflratingsPete/status/1630090165044781057
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/aflratingsPete/status/1630090165044781057
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There's a reason why a player has high ownership, but it can be easy to fall in to a trap of including them by default. It's important to analyse all 30 selections on their merit and justify every selection. Here's the top 12 highest owned players this year. I wonder if we can work out the top 10/12 from each year and see how many were success vs flops.
I have 10 of the current 12 highest owned (7 on field)
I have 10 of the current 12 highest owned (7 on field)
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My reflection from the past two years results is that you need to balance the risk versus reward. An example from 2021 was intentionally taking the punt on Tex Walker (before price changes) and then cashing him out for a large gain. Getting early on Jiath from the Hawks (when he had low ownership) was another boost that helped upgrade my team. Sometimes these early moves will not be successful but, when they work, they can help you achieve a solid ranking. Compared with last year, I took too much risk with my ruck line and it negatively impacted my results due to number of injuries and forced trades. Looking forward to 2023 season!
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I'm comfortable fading Daicos. Superstar in the making, but don't know he's a SC pick this year - certainly not to the point 48.7% ownership, that's absurd to me.
I'm nervous going against Oliver. His price will drop and I'm banking on my cheaper premo's to do their job early and stay in touch with Oliver's scores and then my plan is to bounce a value pick up to him early after he's had a couple of price drops.
I'm nervous going against Oliver. His price will drop and I'm banking on my cheaper premo's to do their job early and stay in touch with Oliver's scores and then my plan is to bounce a value pick up to him early after he's had a couple of price drops.
Last season I faded Cripps, Hewett & Sicily. Didn't work out to well for me, as I had to move the earth to get them in. Better to just go with the crowd for the most popular guys, and differentiate your team with the less popular picks. It doesn't hurt so much if a guy with 10% ownership goes well, compared to a guy with 40% ownership.
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Difficult to compare ownership at the start of the season with the end. The focus is different. At the start everyone needs the cash cow rookies/bargain players, so no surprise that Daicos, Hornbag, Rachele, TDK and Ward are in that list. At the other end of the scale are the perceived top end locks eg Dunks, Gawn, Neale. By the end every one has ditched almost all the cheaper players for the big points scorers.
At the start the mid range selections are often spread across many coaches who have different opinions of their likely success.
From your original list in your earlier post I suspect only about 3 or 4 players could end up in top ten ownership this year (subject to no injuries of note)- Dunkley, Oliver are most likely, with Taranto and Marshalls maybes. Mainly because their price makes them keepers from the start.
At the start the mid range selections are often spread across many coaches who have different opinions of their likely success.
From your original list in your earlier post I suspect only about 3 or 4 players could end up in top ten ownership this year (subject to no injuries of note)- Dunkley, Oliver are most likely, with Taranto and Marshalls maybes. Mainly because their price makes them keepers from the start.
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Yes and no
If he's named for Rd 1 then he should at least be considered. JS is a factor and should be taken into consideration (as is the case for any rookie).
The greater risk at this stage is including him in your planning and structuring up (particularly in relation to ruck coverage and captaincy loophole) on the basis of him playing Rd 1, then having to unpick that structure if he drifts back into irrelevancy over the next 2 weeks.
If he's named for Rd 1 then he should at least be considered. JS is a factor and should be taken into consideration (as is the case for any rookie).
The greater risk at this stage is including him in your planning and structuring up (particularly in relation to ruck coverage and captaincy loophole) on the basis of him playing Rd 1, then having to unpick that structure if he drifts back into irrelevancy over the next 2 weeks.