Discussion 2025: AFL SuperCoach Discussion - OPEN
- Thread starter freowho
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That's not covering the bye, you're losing ~60 points to anyone who has a premium playing that round that doesn't have a bye because you're fielding an extra rookie and the likelihood of having 6+ rookies that all score more than 55 is very unlikely. Having Flynn, who everyone will have if he's playing, is not covering the fact that you're down a premium in your 18 to everyone who didn't take on the bye.
Doesn't mean you can't pick them, just that you should only pick them if you're very confident that they will outscore the other options by 60 points over the first 5-6 weeks. For example, Heeney last year was still a great pick despite his bye, ditto Flanders.
Maybe he can push towards 120ppg and be a fantastic pick, I can't say that I thought Xerri had 120ppg in him last year and he absolutely did. Witts a couple of years ago very similar. Briggs could well be the wild card, he's got the ceiling and when he's fit he does score very well. The problem is he hasn't made it past 14 games fit in his 6 year career to date.
Doesn't mean you can't pick them, just that you should only pick them if you're very confident that they will outscore the other options by 60 points over the first 5-6 weeks. For example, Heeney last year was still a great pick despite his bye, ditto Flanders.
Maybe he can push towards 120ppg and be a fantastic pick, I can't say that I thought Xerri had 120ppg in him last year and he absolutely did. Witts a couple of years ago very similar. Briggs could well be the wild card, he's got the ceiling and when he's fit he does score very well. The problem is he hasn't made it past 14 games fit in his 6 year career to date.
I see a lot (almost everyone) fading Gawn mainly because of his age but also his price. To me it's a very risky strategy, just looking at the way he started last year (yes, I had him) where he averaged 147 in his 1st 6 games, excluding round 0. Three of those scores were 162+ and having the C/VC on him proved to be a great base.
He doesn't have a bye until round 15 either. Of course, if he rolls out a couple of lowish scores then misses the odd game through being managed then he'll be a worthwhile fade if he can be picked up at the right time. The 'right time' last year was round 22.
He doesn't have a bye until round 15 either. Of course, if he rolls out a couple of lowish scores then misses the odd game through being managed then he'll be a worthwhile fade if he can be picked up at the right time. The 'right time' last year was round 22.
I think that differentiating between which player is a flop or not will be the toughest part of the strategy. Im going to have to be very judicious with who i trade out and a lot will rely on the eye test as well as looking at scores and BEs. The sequencing of scores will definitely be significant but i might be a bit stubborn with those low-end premiums as i actually think i need to nail them for the strategy to work so i will give them every chance to reach that next level.
Its interesting how i assess risk with this strategy. The fact i have 400k in the bank mitigates risk significantly but then given im going with so many keepers that arent premiums yet as well as lots of mid-pricers is incredibly risky. There wont be much room for error, but i would argue that is the case for other strategies too.
Its interesting how i assess risk with this strategy. The fact i have 400k in the bank mitigates risk significantly but then given im going with so many keepers that arent premiums yet as well as lots of mid-pricers is incredibly risky. There wont be much room for error, but i would argue that is the case for other strategies too.
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I am almost certainly looking to start him. While he definitely could drop of a little in scoring, his ability to go huge is a joy to be a part of. I think I would be comfortable with him still averaging around the 115 mark. It is the bye for me that is most crucial though. It opens up so many more options. If he is looking fatigued towards the byes, it's an easy change to the best performing ruckman/best run home. If it happens before the byes, his cost prob allows me a straight swap. I like DeKoning, but he is injury prone and shares the bye with Xerri. There aren't many premiums that are viable in our team with the round 15 bye. Taking Gawn allows me to use a premium on another player on another line, who has a different bye, which could be really valuable.
