Discussion 2025: AFL SuperCoach Discussion - OPEN

[Herbie66]

Not at all. My current iteration has 11 between 250 and 500k and I still think there's a case to add Perryman.

These sorts of numbers are way too high though and so I'll be cutting right back.

One issue that comes from MPM that hasn't been touched on this year goes as follows.....

Exactly how many mid pricers do you expect to break out by 20+ PPG? The number that will do it is pretty small and not only that, some of those that do aren't on our radars at the moment. Others might not do it till late season. So while I have 11 on my list at the moment, I might expect only 4 or 5 to be useful to us early.

Now.... let's say I go in with 10 MPPs, hoping to cover all options. Only 4 MPPs explode out the gates and I have 3 of them, having missed say Mitch Owens opening brightly when none of us really thought it too likely. I now have 7 MPPs clogging my list and I need to bring in Owens.

List Clogger 1 > Owens = 1 trade. Leaves 6 cloggers to fix. No other MPPs are firing at this stage for me to switch to. I can trade down to a missing rookie 350k > 150k releases 200k that I can add to another non-firing MPP but unless he's already over 400k, I'm not getting a premium back, mid or probably ruck. Chances are he's only 350 and my options are getting limited

And I need to do that for 3 pairs of players to clear out my 6 cloggers. I can't easily find 600k in downgrades for my 3 downs and I need more than that to effect my upgrades. There isn't enough sideways action available that I am confident on (or it would have been in my initial squad).

Another 6 trades used in corrections for a total of 7. I've probably used 2 boosts as the cherry on top as well.

Now instead, let's just pick 5 of those MPPs. I only get 2 or them right and am still missing Owens as in the other example. I have only the 3 list cloggers and need to get the remaining 2 must-have MPPs. I can sideways 2 trades and downgrade to a missed rookie, saving 4 trades and banking 200k for a later upgrade. Maybe I use a boost.

I learned this aspect of MPM from some pretty hard lessons the last couple of years.

Yes, start a selection of MPPs but as I've consistently said: tread warily and don't overdo it. Even with the extra trades, there is a limit to how effective the strategy can be

That made my brain hurts reading all that 😀

I guess the perfect strategy would be to start the mid-pricers that don't need to be upgraded.

At this stage we have no idea who they will (or won't) be.

So far I see the potential in :-

Mills
Oliver
Macrae , Smith , Parker , Daniel

Ideally they don't cause any problems so I can focus on downgrades and upgrades then maybe reassess on their Round 12 - 16 byes.

If we get enough viable Round 1 rookie priced players (at the moment it is all conjecture & speculation as who will/won't play , reading some different best 23 predicted sides and you end up coming up with a combination of 25-28 players per team)

At least Round 0 might give us some players and see what they score.

Enough rookies I like the look of 8-8-7.

The other 2 mid-pricers could be a combo of :-

McKercher / Rivers / de Koning / Coleman
Peatling
.
Flynn

If Flynn was # 1 ruck at the Eagles and stays on the park for the first 6-8 rounds could well be winner winner chicken dinner.

As it is a salary based game we need to start mid pricers to balance everything out

10 x $ $ 600k premiums = $ 6 million
21 x $ 200k rookies = $ 4.2 million (obviously won't be paying this much for everyone)

13 onfield rookies isn't feasible in any case if it is going to be 3 trades for each upgrade = 39 trades

The wait will soon be over , only 42 days to go and we will have solved the starting jigsaw puzzle 🤗

 

[Under The Dome]

Round 0 is only 5 Thursdays away!

A great match to get underway scouting Coleman, Doedee, Smith, Stewart, Holmes, Neale, Ashcroft x2, Zorko, Knevitt, O'Sullivan, Martin and Dunkley.

 

[warewolves]

Not at all. My current iteration has 11 between 250 and 500k and I still think there's a case to add Perryman.

These sorts of numbers are way too high though and so I'll be cutting right back.

One issue that comes from MPM that hasn't been touched on this year goes as follows.....

Exactly how many mid pricers do you expect to break out by 20+ PPG? The number that will do it is pretty small and not only that, some of those that do aren't on our radars at the moment. Others might not do it till late season. So while I have 11 on my list at the moment, I might expect only 4 or 5 to be useful to us early.

Now.... let's say I go in with 10 MPPs, hoping to cover all options. Only 4 MPPs explode out the gates and I have 3 of them, having missed say Mitch Owens opening brightly when none of us really thought it too likely. I now have 7 MPPs clogging my list and I need to bring in Owens.

List Clogger 1 > Owens = 1 trade. Leaves 6 cloggers to fix. No other MPPs are firing at this stage for me to switch to. I can trade down to a missing rookie 350k > 150k releases 200k that I can add to another non-firing MPP but unless he's already over 400k, I'm not getting a premium back, mid or probably ruck. Chances are he's only 350 and my options are getting limited

And I need to do that for 3 pairs of players to clear out my 6 cloggers. I can't easily find 600k in downgrades for my 3 downs and I need more than that to effect my upgrades. There isn't enough sideways action available that I am confident on (or it would have been in my initial squad).

Another 6 trades used in corrections for a total of 7. I've probably used 2 boosts as the cherry on top as well.

Now instead, let's just pick 5 of those MPPs. I only get 2 or them right and am still missing Owens as in the other example. I have only the 3 list cloggers and need to get the remaining 2 must-have MPPs. I can sideways 2 trades and downgrade to a missed rookie, saving 4 trades and banking 200k for a later upgrade. Maybe I use a boost.

I learned this aspect of MPM from some pretty hard lessons the last couple of years.

Yes, start a selection of MPPs but as I've consistently said: tread warily and don't overdo it. Even with the extra trades, there is a limit to how effective the strategy can be

Following up on this part of your post AJ..
+++ Exactly how many mid pricers do you expect to break out by 20+ PPG? The number that will do it is pretty small and not only that, some of those that do aren't on our radars at the moment. Others might not do it till late season. So while I have 11 on my list at the moment, I might expect only 4 or 5 to be useful to us early. +++

This is a list of players as at round 8 last year.
Players to be eligible, had to have
* played 5 games or more
* starting price $250 - $450K
* exceeded their starting value by 18 ppg (Free col)

 

[Vicwood]

I

Not at all. My current iteration has 11 between 250 and 500k and I still think there's a case to add Perryman.

These sorts of numbers are way too high though and so I'll be cutting right back.

One issue that comes from MPM that hasn't been touched on this year goes as follows.....

Exactly how many mid pricers do you expect to break out by 20+ PPG? The number that will do it is pretty small and not only that, some of those that do aren't on our radars at the moment. Others might not do it till late season. So while I have 11 on my list at the moment, I might expect only 4 or 5 to be useful to us early.

Now.... let's say I go in with 10 MPPs, hoping to cover all options. Only 4 MPPs explode out the gates and I have 3 of them, having missed say Mitch Owens opening brightly when none of us really thought it too likely. I now have 7 MPPs clogging my list and I need to bring in Owens.

List Clogger 1 > Owens = 1 trade. Leaves 6 cloggers to fix. No other MPPs are firing at this stage for me to switch to. I can trade down to a missing rookie 350k > 150k releases 200k that I can add to another non-firing MPP but unless he's already over 400k, I'm not getting a premium back, mid or probably ruck. Chances are he's only 350 and my options are getting limited

And I need to do that for 3 pairs of players to clear out my 6 cloggers. I can't easily find 600k in downgrades for my 3 downs and I need more than that to effect my upgrades. There isn't enough sideways action available that I am confident on (or it would have been in my initial squad).

Another 6 trades used in corrections for a total of 7. I've probably used 2 boosts as the cherry on top as well.

Now instead, let's just pick 5 of those MPPs. I only get 2 or them right and am still missing Owens as in the other example. I have only the 3 list cloggers and need to get the remaining 2 must-have MPPs. I can sideways 2 trades and downgrade to a missed rookie, saving 4 trades and banking 200k for a later upgrade. Maybe I use a boost.

I learned this aspect of MPM from some pretty hard lessons the last couple of years.

Yes, start a selection of MPPs but as I've consistently said: tread warily and don't overdo it. Even with the extra trades, there is a limit to how effective the strategy can be

I have Oliver, Smith and Mills as keepers. Both Smith and Mills offer cover in the Midfield late into the season. Oliver has a good bye and would be a easy sideways if you need to.

Really keen on Day making the jump to premium this year, while i am attempting to convince myself Reid can go 105+ until his bye. Maybe Sanders or Kennedy as a FWD but you have Mr Magnets.

Early signs seems to indicate we should have enough rookie price options available to fill the benches and last spots on each line.

 

[warewolves]

This forum is the best for keeping up with footy news and views but it means I keep getting swayed by too many reports.
This is my latest iteration - must be about the maximum possible number of mid-pricers!
Limiting myself to 3 spots for R0 players - Holmes, Day & W. Ashcroft
Nearly $70K in the kitty



DEF
I reckon Holmes will be right at the top of the DEF list. Persuaded by recent article to go with Rivers.
Short is the most vulnerable to my next change of mind.
MID
I havent got any of the high priced stars, but I am hoping to compensate by having a lot more depth here than most others.
I did anticipate having quite a few more rookies in this line, but the consensus now seems to be they might struggle to get strong scoring roles - will obviously re-assess as teams firm up.
RUCK
Pretty standard. If Boyd starts as clear #1 I will have to get him on field - will probably mean a donut R3 and one of the rucks moving to Flex
FWD
Another training report persuaded me to bring in Sam Darcy - he's not as cheap as you might hope, but its hard to imagine that he wont improve. Also a chance to get DPP I would think. The clincher was that I only had one Doggie (Sanders) and I feel I will enjoy watching better if there were more RWB players in my team - crazy that 5 of my fwds would have met that test last year.
Bolton is a punt - we know how well he can score, so hoping he fires up early at Freo.

 

[freowho]

Could be a little different this year with the bar for a forward keeper being so low. It makes all of Macrae, Smith, Daniel and potentially Phillipou when he comes back, a good chance of being keepers. Mills and Clarry are high possibilities in achieving the same.

You guys with a bucketload more experience in this game might be able to come up with examples of other years where there's been a high probability of 6 MP's being keepers.

Add in a few like Rivers, Peatling and Flynn as likely stepping stones then it's not hard to come up with 8 legitimate starting options.

2014 winner started Jacobs, Gray, Parker and Swallow who all broke out and became keepers. Gray had been a burn man up to that point. Another winner, I think 2017, started 4 failed mid pricers and traded them to 4 successful mid pricers in the first few rounds. I think Oliver, Yeo, Murphy and Adams were the 4. Adams had been a burn man up to that point and Murphy had been battling injuries for 2 years.
Pin the tail on the donkey doesn't win it, but playing safe rarely wins it either.

 

[Herbie66]

This forum is the best for keeping up with footy news and views but it means I keep getting swayed by too many reports.
This is my latest iteration - must be about the maximum possible number of mid-pricers!
Limiting myself to 3 spots for R0 players - Holmes, Day & W. Ashcroft
Nearly $70K in the kitty

View attachment 83455

DEF
I reckon Holmes will be right at the top of the DEF list. Persuaded by recent article to go with Rivers.
Short is the most vulnerable to my next change of mind.
MID
I havent got any of the high priced stars, but I am hoping to compensate by having a lot more depth here than most others.
I did anticipate having quite a few more rookies in this line, but the consensus now seems to be they might struggle to get strong scoring roles - will obviously re-assess as teams firm up.
RUCK
Pretty standard. If Boyd starts as clear #1 I will have to get him on field - will probably mean a donut R3 and one of the rucks moving to Flex
FWD
Another training report persuaded me to bring in Sam Darcy - he's not as cheap as you might hope, but its hard to imagine that he wont improve. Also a chance to get DPP I would think. The clincher was that I only had one Doggie (Sanders) and I feel I will enjoy watching better if there were more RWB players in my team - crazy that 5 of my fwds would have met that test last year.
Bolton is a punt - we know how well he can score, so hoping he fires up early at Freo.

Certainly interesting to see

Only 3 onfield rookies

Who is to say it can't/won't work

Might end up using less trades to get to full premium than those that are going 6-9 onfield rookies.

VC/C options would be by only query

 

[aj74]

Following up on this part of your post AJ..
+++ Exactly how many mid pricers do you expect to break out by 20+ PPG? The number that will do it is pretty small and not only that, some of those that do aren't on our radars at the moment. Others might not do it till late season. So while I have 11 on my list at the moment, I might expect only 4 or 5 to be useful to us early. +++

This is a list of players as at round 8 last year.
Players to be eligible, had to have
* played 5 games or more
* starting price $250 - $450K
* exceeded their starting value by 18 ppg (Free col)

View attachment 83454

Well bugger me. That's a much bigger number than I expected! Makes me wish I'd typed "30+" instead 😀

Have you got figures for earlier years? If so, did they have similar numbers?

 

[aj74]

In at least the last 3 years, Connor Rozee has hit 150+ on at least 1 occasion. In 2 of those years he had the decency to put that spike score in amongst a run of 4 or 5 tonnes. The one year he didn't (2023) he still hit 150+ on 3 occasions

Gonna roll the dice on the man this year at 529k and keep with the notion of a straight swap to a full premo after he's gone on a tear. He does have a habit of spitting out some shockers, especially when he decides he can play hurt.

If he can go 120 beforehand and make a hundred k it would be a massive win. Just needs to hit 98 to break even

 

[Under The Dome]

In at least the last 3 years, Connor Rozee has hit 150+ on at least 1 occasion. In 2 of those years he had the decency to put that spike score in amongst a run of 4 or 5 tonnes. The one year he didn't (2023) he still hit 150+ on 3 occasions

Gonna roll the dice on the man this year at 529k and keep with the notion of a straight swap to a full premo after he's gone on a tear. He does have a habit of spitting out some shockers, especially when he decides he can play hurt.

If he can go 120 beforehand and make a hundred k it would be a massive win. Just needs to hit 98 to break even

The one year he didn't (2023) he still hit 150+ on 3 occasions? You've confused me on that

 

[freowho]

In at least the last 3 years, Connor Rozee has hit 150+ on at least 1 occasion. In 2 of those years he had the decency to put that spike score in amongst a run of 4 or 5 tonnes. The one year he didn't (2023) he still hit 150+ on 3 occasions

Gonna roll the dice on the man this year at 529k and keep with the notion of a straight swap to a full premo after he's gone on a tear. He does have a habit of spitting out some shockers, especially when he decides he can play hurt.

If he can go 120 beforehand and make a hundred k it would be a massive win. Just needs to hit 98 to break even

That's a big hail mary!

 

[aj74]

The one year he didn't (2023) he still hit 150+ on 3 occasions? You've confused me on that

Correction: 2022. Rounds 6, 17 and 23

Even then he kinda had a run of tonnes going at round 17, missing with a 98 and a 91 in amongst 5 tonnes (including a 154)

 

[aj74]

That's a big hail mary!

Hey, some people are paying 50k more for LDU 😀

Yeah i wouldn't want to keep him. Way too inconsistent and I've got round 12 issues as it is.

But I could have another 450k stepping stone and 80k free or say stuff it, let's try to grab some crazy points for a couple of months and hopefully straight swap to a real premium when the time is right (just as everyone else is getting sucked in to picking him up)

 

[Under The Dome]

Correction: 2022. Rounds 6, 17 and 23

Even then he kinda had a run of tonnes going at round 17, missing with a 98 and a 91 in amongst 5 tonnes (including a 154)

Someone similar that is just a percentage off the 150 scores in 2023 was Cerra. Coming from 81k cheaper he has the scope of doing it better with his 130's having done 106, 144, 134, 132 in a row and another 129, 132, 127, 130.

 

[warewolves]

Well bugger me. That's a much bigger number than I expected! Makes me wish I'd typed "30+" instead 😀

Have you got figures for earlier years? If so, did they have similar numbers?

Corresponding table from 2023

 

[aj74]

Thanks Warewolves. A bit to digest, even from just the 2 years of data.

2 things I think i got from it from a quick glance are that 1) Mids and Defs are overrepresented vs forwards and 2) splitting them into 50k cohorts, the 300k to 350k batch might be where you get the best chance of picking a winner

Also perhaps that it might be wise to temper expectations on the 400 to 450k guys, which is fair enough as they are already priced at 80 or so

Anyway, great tables. Thanks!

 

[JoongaJack]

Following up on this part of your post AJ..
+++ Exactly how many mid pricers do you expect to break out by 20+ PPG? The number that will do it is pretty small and not only that, some of those that do aren't on our radars at the moment. Others might not do it till late season. So while I have 11 on my list at the moment, I might expect only 4 or 5 to be useful to us early. +++

This is a list of players as at round 8 last year.
Players to be eligible, had to have
* played 5 games or more
* starting price $250 - $450K
* exceeded their starting value by 18 ppg (Free col)

View attachment 83454


Howd this play out for you last year? you obviously picked a lot of value here and you seem to be onto a similar path this year and i agree with alot of your selections. very interested to know your early season ranking and of course cash gen?

 

[Go Paddy]

I don't think you lose the value of the flex by putting a zero onfield cause the zero is replaced by the scoring player on the bench, flex still replaces the 22nd lowest score.

Good point! I do think there has been a lot of overthinking it. I can’t understand why you’d put anyone there other than someone who def won’t be your lowest scorer barring early injury or concussion. One thing I’m considering if Marshall is out is rolling the dice with it. With flex could go Flynn and Boyd as two rucks. Put Xeri in flex and floating donut ruck forward ruck 3. If Flynn and Boyd score well it could set up season with big advantage of having high scoring cheap players on field. Without the flex this move would be do or die as if one of the two go down it get dropped it’s double trades to turn either into a viable replacement unless you kept 200k in bank. With flex would only cost one trade. Move Xeri back to ruck and whichever one of Boyd or Flynn failed to flex. Then trade them to best rookie you missed. One trade plus get best money maker you are missing. Can make your team look pretty good when only spending 460 for 3 rucks!

 

[Bontempele]

Corresponding table from 2023

View attachment 83463

Love this analysis! So who is the Trent Rivers of this year...

 

[Tamuhawk]

This forum is the best for keeping up with footy news and views but it means I keep getting swayed by too many reports.
This is my latest iteration - must be about the maximum possible number of mid-pricers!
Limiting myself to 3 spots for R0 players - Holmes, Day & W. Ashcroft
Nearly $70K in the kitty

View attachment 83455

Mills & Bailey Smith would make it 5 R0 players. (Unless you're only counting players above Ashcroft's price.)