I suspect he is saying is that if you start say four then you need to accept that maybe only one will turn out okay and be a keeper. If that is the scenario then you need to be ruthless moving the other three on quickly. IMO this is the trap with starting some of these players. You don't want to get into a situation where they are not quite producing the scores you want but are scoring good enough to hold while you address other more pressing problems. That becomes a slow bleed in points. I have Day and Oliver and would like to think both turn into keepers. Peatling as well although he is definitely not a keeper unless he really hits it out of the park. Melbourne still seem to be unsettled and Oliver has had his own issues. Day is brilliant on his day and the 2024 Hawthorn resurgence happened within a couple of games of his return from injury. But he has had injury issues so that is a risk. Great value picks but you need a Plan B if they go pear shaped.
Discussion 2025: AFL SuperCoach Discussion
- Thread starter freowho
- Start date
Last years winner value shopped all year. The only overpriced player he had for the whole year was Bont and he only got 2 captains picks out of him. The only other player he probably paid up for was Zorko mid year. He had plenty of misses too. Traded NMartin out and then back in again. Fisher got traded out, then back in, then back out. Rankine played 1 game for him and then got traded out. Steele, Miller, Wines, Oliver, Grundy, Jackson all got traded out.
But he just kept trying his luck. Xerri rnd 3, Neal and Dunkley post bye when Brisbane started winning again, Gawn to Marshall in rnd 18 and Marshall came flying home, Caldwell and Moore on the run home who finished well.
There is a lot of luck in supercoach and his year could have easily gone pear shaped. But he gave himself the chance to get lucky. He wouldn't have won if he'd played a straight bat. He never chased high priced players like Ryan, Serong or Butters.
But he just kept trying his luck. Xerri rnd 3, Neal and Dunkley post bye when Brisbane started winning again, Gawn to Marshall in rnd 18 and Marshall came flying home, Caldwell and Moore on the run home who finished well.
There is a lot of luck in supercoach and his year could have easily gone pear shaped. But he gave himself the chance to get lucky. He wouldn't have won if he'd played a straight bat. He never chased high priced players like Ryan, Serong or Butters.
Interesting chat on value premiums. My main concern is that you are effectively filling your M8 (and maybe M7) spots “first” and banking on nailing your remaining positions.
Personally I prefer to have those M7/M8 spots as a safety net for a genuine premium that didn’t quite hit expectations. Means I can sort of miss on 1 or 2 and not degrade my overall team as much.
So often I see teams with stars in the eyes on all the value premiums and then their final team is filled with 4-5 M8 (or equivalent on other lines) types.
Other thing to keep in mind is how averages work (see Rowsus’ thread for a much better explanation!). But basically, if they score well early you won’t want to trade them and if the score poorly you’re behind the pack.
Personally I prefer to have those M7/M8 spots as a safety net for a genuine premium that didn’t quite hit expectations. Means I can sort of miss on 1 or 2 and not degrade my overall team as much.
So often I see teams with stars in the eyes on all the value premiums and then their final team is filled with 4-5 M8 (or equivalent on other lines) types.
Other thing to keep in mind is how averages work (see Rowsus’ thread for a much better explanation!). But basically, if they score well early you won’t want to trade them and if the score poorly you’re behind the pack.
I 100% agree with what he did, you have to take risks to get ahead some times and luck comes with that. I've said it before here my best year I had was a while back now maybe 7 years I was ranked number 1 for a few weeks, I started with more of these risky 400k picks. Just some bad luck and bad decisions I dropped off still was ranked in the top 200 by season end. I think this is the year to take the risk again with the value that is out there.
Last year's winner team reveal for 2025 was :-
Short , M Roberts , Mills , Schoenmaker , Travaglia * , Allan * / Busslinger , Reid
Bont , Brayshaw , Rozee , Oliver , Cerra , J Smith , Tsatas , Sheldrick / L Ashcroft , Langford , Lombard
Xerri , TDK / Boyd
JHF * , Macrae , B Smith * , Parker * , Sanders * , Daniel * / Hewett * , Bell *
Peatling
6 > $ 500k
0-3-5
4-1-6
2-0-0
1-5-2
0-1-0
Been enough discussion on whether Mills , Oliver , Macrae , B Smith , Parker , Daniel can be season long keepers.
Short , Roberts , Cerra , Peatling as value to start "stepping stones"
Does Rozee finish Top 10-12 mid ?
Short , M Roberts , Mills , Schoenmaker , Travaglia * , Allan * / Busslinger , Reid
Bont , Brayshaw , Rozee , Oliver , Cerra , J Smith , Tsatas , Sheldrick / L Ashcroft , Langford , Lombard
Xerri , TDK / Boyd
JHF * , Macrae , B Smith * , Parker * , Sanders * , Daniel * / Hewett * , Bell *
Peatling
6 > $ 500k
0-3-5
4-1-6
2-0-0
1-5-2
0-1-0
Been enough discussion on whether Mills , Oliver , Macrae , B Smith , Parker , Daniel can be season long keepers.
Short , Roberts , Cerra , Peatling as value to start "stepping stones"
Does Rozee finish Top 10-12 mid ?
Stronger than I thought.
3-4 possible keepers in the F to start ✓
Aside from no Sheezel in defence.
Defence is starting to look more and more intriguing
We can pick 12 from the start that went 100+ last season
Flanders , Whitfield , Zorko , Houston , Martin , Ridley all with the early Bye
Sheezel - does his role change decrease/increase his average
Ryan & Clark - change in game plan
McGovern - durability
Sinclair - injury concern
NWM - where does the increase come from , doesn't get contested ball , intercept marks or tackles.
Beautiful kick but does he "damage" enough ? , teams probably play a defensive forward on him
Next tier down , Holmes , Sicily , Blakey , Stewart , McGrath all with the early Bye.
Hinge back to defence 🤔 (Cumming & Sholl wing with Laird , Milera , Nankervis , Smith all in defence sharing/taking points
Vlastuin & Short
Duggan , McKercher , Rivers , Roberts etc price types
Schoenmaker , Milera , Sinn etc price types all possibly viable for 6-8 weeks.
Plenty of rookies being bandied around on this and other lines but who knows who is playing Round 1 or how they will score in SC.
At this time they are all just names and prices.
Midfield works for 6-10 weeks you could just focus on upgrading the defence (& Curtin) and then sling shot through the Byes.
3-4 possible keepers in the F to start ✓
Aside from no Sheezel in defence.
Defence is starting to look more and more intriguing
We can pick 12 from the start that went 100+ last season
Flanders , Whitfield , Zorko , Houston , Martin , Ridley all with the early Bye
Sheezel - does his role change decrease/increase his average
Ryan & Clark - change in game plan
McGovern - durability
Sinclair - injury concern
NWM - where does the increase come from , doesn't get contested ball , intercept marks or tackles.
Beautiful kick but does he "damage" enough ? , teams probably play a defensive forward on him
Next tier down , Holmes , Sicily , Blakey , Stewart , McGrath all with the early Bye.
Hinge back to defence 🤔 (Cumming & Sholl wing with Laird , Milera , Nankervis , Smith all in defence sharing/taking points
Vlastuin & Short
Duggan , McKercher , Rivers , Roberts etc price types
Schoenmaker , Milera , Sinn etc price types all possibly viable for 6-8 weeks.
Plenty of rookies being bandied around on this and other lines but who knows who is playing Round 1 or how they will score in SC.
At this time they are all just names and prices.
Midfield works for 6-10 weeks you could just focus on upgrading the defence (& Curtin) and then sling shot through the Byes.
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