Discussion 2025: AFL SuperCoach Discussion
- Thread starter freowho
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It’s a fair comment - I have now created an RMT thread: https://supercoachscores.com/threads/afl-sc-rate-my-team.5470/
Have moved a few recent RMT type posts into that thread and will continue to do that in this thread.
Agree that this thread should be more focused on preseason game discussion!
We have had standalone threads for preseason game writeups / training reports before, with mods moving posts into a locked thread.
This year we just tried to have separate threads so mods didn’t have to wade through discussion threads to move helpful posts with training reports, game summaries into a locked thread and posters could do this themselves.
Have moved a few recent RMT type posts into that thread and will continue to do that in this thread.
Agree that this thread should be more focused on preseason game discussion!
We have had standalone threads for preseason game writeups / training reports before, with mods moving posts into a locked thread.
This year we just tried to have separate threads so mods didn’t have to wade through discussion threads to move helpful posts with training reports, game summaries into a locked thread and posters could do this themselves.
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Journal article: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5482352/
12+ months post surgery is a positive.
https://www.afl.com.au/news/1211456...e-rehab-time-for-star-midfielder-bailey-smith
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Baz I thought was fine, very busy outing, you couldn't blame anyone for picking him even with his DE issues, as he does get a ton of ball to compensate. I'm just not entirely sure what his defined role is right now + has the early bye. Has to be considered as an option even if I don't currently have him in my team.
Mentioned in another thread but the risk right now with Smith is not picking him rather than picking him.
At 67% he can cook your season if he fires. Even if he doesn't, you've still got to nail the alternative in that ultra risky price range to actually have an advantage and given his r3 bye, you'll probably find everyone jumps to your win anyway so you get 2 weeks of outperformance and a trade. It's not a bad outcome but given that you're probably a less than 50% chance of hitting in that price range on the alternative, it's a ballsy play.
All a moot point with Smith though, we get the round 0 sighter and that will dictate whether he is selected or not. If he goes well, people will jump on, if he goes poorly then everyone will jump off and the above will no longer be relevant. He's really only interesting if he scores say an 85 type score where you've got a genuine decision.
I think people often forget the positional scarcity as well. 90+ is probably a keeper at his price, especially with the flex position making F6 essentially a free shot and Smith is the kind you'd want at F6 with his ability to go huge on the days that he kicks to his teammates or goals.
The forwards in general have a lot of very interesting midprice options but they're mostly interesting because the premium options are pretty terrible.
At 67% he can cook your season if he fires. Even if he doesn't, you've still got to nail the alternative in that ultra risky price range to actually have an advantage and given his r3 bye, you'll probably find everyone jumps to your win anyway so you get 2 weeks of outperformance and a trade. It's not a bad outcome but given that you're probably a less than 50% chance of hitting in that price range on the alternative, it's a ballsy play.
All a moot point with Smith though, we get the round 0 sighter and that will dictate whether he is selected or not. If he goes well, people will jump on, if he goes poorly then everyone will jump off and the above will no longer be relevant. He's really only interesting if he scores say an 85 type score where you've got a genuine decision.
I think people often forget the positional scarcity as well. 90+ is probably a keeper at his price, especially with the flex position making F6 essentially a free shot and Smith is the kind you'd want at F6 with his ability to go huge on the days that he kicks to his teammates or goals.
The forwards in general have a lot of very interesting midprice options but they're mostly interesting because the premium options are pretty terrible.
The round 0 can be a bit of a trap though. If he scores poorly, let’s say a 72, many will drop off, but he could come back and punch out a 162 the next week. Ask me how I know……….
I don't think he's a terrible fade anyway just because the upside is probably not extreme, 105 to me seems like a pretty high end upside target, 95 seems a pretty reasonable mid target point and 85 to me seems a possible low end target. I think he is probably in the low 90s, probably starts a bit hotter as the Cats will want to try and get him involved early in the season.
He's a high risk fade but I don't think he's a bad fade target at the same time.
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The conversation on fading popular players is very interesting. I then wondered how many popular players I was fading
I went through and found 17 players with more than 50% ownership and Erasmus at 48%
I own 11 of those 18. Of the 7 missing, 4 were rookies, but the 3 premiums were Xerri, Sheezel and JHF. All Rd12, but I thought all 3 were overpriced.
I then looked at players in my team 10% or under ownership. 7 premos and 1 rookie. For a coach like me who thinks there is some value in starting vanilla, this is a bit frightening! I was surprised by some NWM 8%, Clark 5%. Brayshaw 10%, Rozee 6%, Anderson 3%. Nank 2%, Meek 5%. (the rookie is O’Driscoll at 6%, which will surely change!).
Must be many people waiting before changing their teams - Coleman still has 24% ownership.
The players with more than 50% ownership
Xerri 55%
Bont 50%
Sheezel 56%
JHF 53%
Oliver 51%
Macrae 60%
Smith 67%
Mills 59%
Daniel 70%
Rookies
Smith 66%
Ashcroft 51%
Travaglia 56%
Kako 51%
B Allan 66%
Hewett 63%
El Hawli 55%
Erasmus 48%
Boyd 50%
Not saying you shouldn’t fade popular selections. But there is a competitive play of taking the popular picks because if they work and you bet against them you can give ground to too many other competitors.
I am going to stay with my 3 fades- albeit nervously.
how many 50+% owned premos are you fading?
How many 10% and under premos are you starting? My 7 makes me nervous for sure.
I went through and found 17 players with more than 50% ownership and Erasmus at 48%
I own 11 of those 18. Of the 7 missing, 4 were rookies, but the 3 premiums were Xerri, Sheezel and JHF. All Rd12, but I thought all 3 were overpriced.
I then looked at players in my team 10% or under ownership. 7 premos and 1 rookie. For a coach like me who thinks there is some value in starting vanilla, this is a bit frightening! I was surprised by some NWM 8%, Clark 5%. Brayshaw 10%, Rozee 6%, Anderson 3%. Nank 2%, Meek 5%. (the rookie is O’Driscoll at 6%, which will surely change!).
Must be many people waiting before changing their teams - Coleman still has 24% ownership.
The players with more than 50% ownership
Xerri 55%
Bont 50%
Sheezel 56%
JHF 53%
Oliver 51%
Macrae 60%
Smith 67%
Mills 59%
Daniel 70%
Rookies
Smith 66%
Ashcroft 51%
Travaglia 56%
Kako 51%
B Allan 66%
Hewett 63%
El Hawli 55%
Erasmus 48%
Boyd 50%
Not saying you shouldn’t fade popular selections. But there is a competitive play of taking the popular picks because if they work and you bet against them you can give ground to too many other competitors.
I am going to stay with my 3 fades- albeit nervously.
how many 50+% owned premos are you fading?
How many 10% and under premos are you starting? My 7 makes me nervous for sure.
I'm similar, the depth of midprice forwards has hit a very hard wall early which isn't helping. If guys like Parker, Maric, Phillipou and a couple of others were viable that would help avoid him. The other issue I keep finding is that the other options are such wild cards. Jackson without Reidy would be a strong starting play. JHF has the bye of doom, Rankine is very hard to trust and the rest really don't interest me.
So keep kind of falling into him in my side
Would hazard a guess that not many have actually factored byes yet, hence Clark/NWM being very low, there's also very compelling cases for the Sinclair/Ryan pairing and you can really only take 2 of those 4 at most. FWIW, I think all 4 have great cases to start them.
Fading Sheezel is brave. He's got upside potential, he absolutely could get FWD DPP and he's likely to be the most selected premium back because he's the only one without any real wart outside his bye but even that's not bad as he's the only one down back right now in it that's really strong.
I expect Xerri drops a bit as people start to look at the byes. JHF depends what the cheaper options do, he's definitely the standout forward premium option, bye not ideal though.
Fading super popular guys is just really high risk.
Simple fact is there's 4 possible outcomes.
Smith Win, Alternative WIn - No gain
Smith Win, Alt Fail - Massive Loss
Smith Fail, Alt Win - Big win
Smith Fail, Alt Fail - No Gain
So 3 out of 4 you're not ahead and even the 1 where you're ahead, come round 3 everyone will jump on your winner or, worse, an even bigger winner. You're a trade and some points ahead but not sure that's worth it for the downside risk, especially given the herd is generally going to find the best option on paper so you're looking at weaker options and hoping to outproduce the expected outcomes.
FWIW, if you put a gun to my head, I think Graham outproduces Smith over the first 6 weeks at more or less the same price but I'm not sure I'd wager my season on it
So keep kind of falling into him in my side
Would hazard a guess that not many have actually factored byes yet, hence Clark/NWM being very low, there's also very compelling cases for the Sinclair/Ryan pairing and you can really only take 2 of those 4 at most. FWIW, I think all 4 have great cases to start them.
Fading Sheezel is brave. He's got upside potential, he absolutely could get FWD DPP and he's likely to be the most selected premium back because he's the only one without any real wart outside his bye but even that's not bad as he's the only one down back right now in it that's really strong.
I expect Xerri drops a bit as people start to look at the byes. JHF depends what the cheaper options do, he's definitely the standout forward premium option, bye not ideal though.
Fading super popular guys is just really high risk.
Simple fact is there's 4 possible outcomes.
Smith Win, Alternative WIn - No gain
Smith Win, Alt Fail - Massive Loss
Smith Fail, Alt Win - Big win
Smith Fail, Alt Fail - No Gain
So 3 out of 4 you're not ahead and even the 1 where you're ahead, come round 3 everyone will jump on your winner or, worse, an even bigger winner. You're a trade and some points ahead but not sure that's worth it for the downside risk, especially given the herd is generally going to find the best option on paper so you're looking at weaker options and hoping to outproduce the expected outcomes.
FWIW, if you put a gun to my head, I think Graham outproduces Smith over the first 6 weeks at more or less the same price but I'm not sure I'd wager my season on it
You seem to be taking a bit of a scattergun approach to "value" Keepers. Which is great when it works, but rarely does anyone achieve 50+% or better succesful picks when having so many.
Outside of Clark, the other 6 players need to record personal bests to be considered succesful picks. Having so many can often lead to the trap of ending up with a team with too many D5-6, M6-8, F5-6 type players.
People always have the plan to trade out of any potential problems. This can be difficult, as sometimes/often there is more pressing problems to fix. Alternatively, they sometimes don't look like they're a problem until it is either too late, or other players selected with more lofty ambitions don't score to your plan, and join these guys on the lower tiers of your Prem ladder.
It's great to back in some to get new levels, but I think 6 is asking too much. They're too expensive for Stepping Stones, so they are generally either marked as "pass" or "fail".
Just my opinion.
Outside of Clark, the other 6 players need to record personal bests to be considered succesful picks. Having so many can often lead to the trap of ending up with a team with too many D5-6, M6-8, F5-6 type players.
People always have the plan to trade out of any potential problems. This can be difficult, as sometimes/often there is more pressing problems to fix. Alternatively, they sometimes don't look like they're a problem until it is either too late, or other players selected with more lofty ambitions don't score to your plan, and join these guys on the lower tiers of your Prem ladder.
It's great to back in some to get new levels, but I think 6 is asking too much. They're too expensive for Stepping Stones, so they are generally either marked as "pass" or "fail".
Just my opinion.
It's a bit weird and dysfunctional how the only time you can see a player's ownership % is when you're about to trade them in.
Not when you just click on a player's name and not in the 'Players' section, when you'd like to check your own team's ownership.
This is something you need to check before the season starts, not just only after.
It'd be good if they could fix that issue.
Not when you just click on a player's name and not in the 'Players' section, when you'd like to check your own team's ownership.
This is something you need to check before the season starts, not just only after.
It'd be good if they could fix that issue.
