Position 2025: RUCK DISCUSSION
- Thread starter KLo30
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But perceiving value at his price range is fraught with danger and wasn’t comprehended last season regarding Liberatore and Stewart when raised, as scores from last season are not automatically transferred to the next season and everyone starts at 0.
It is reliant on Nankervis matching or exceeding the proprotion of 100+ scores that he turned into 120+ and a few high ceiling games such as the 150's along with keeping his floor and limiting the sub 90-100 scores. A few more eighties or less start to creep in and a few 120 drop back to 110 or 150 down to 130, etc, then there is no value or little upside over a full season. He struggles to hit the scoreboard and is not as involved as the top rucks around the ground in terms of marks, intercept marks, etc so a 120+ season avg is a massive stretch unless he improves significantly in a few categories.
It is reliant on Nankervis matching or exceeding the proprotion of 100+ scores that he turned into 120+ and a few high ceiling games such as the 150's along with keeping his floor and limiting the sub 90-100 scores. A few more eighties or less start to creep in and a few 120 drop back to 110 or 150 down to 130, etc, then there is no value or little upside over a full season. He struggles to hit the scoreboard and is not as involved as the top rucks around the ground in terms of marks, intercept marks, etc so a 120+ season avg is a massive stretch unless he improves significantly in a few categories.
While 120 might be the ave of the top 2 rucks for the past 7 years, that ave is dominated by two players -Gawn and Grundy. Of the 14 ave there were 10 that were 120 or more and Gawndy accounted for 8 of them. In that time period only two other players made it to 120. English in 2023 and Xerri 2024 (rounding up but close enough). Grundy is probably not returning to his golden days but Gawn remains the measuring stick with 124 ave last year. Picking someone else to ave 120 however seems to be a lottery. I doubt the people that started or jumped on Xerri early last year thought he would go 120. But you need to be in it to win it. If you want a 120 ruck it looks like it's Gawn and throw a dart.
I'll pick one in the Flex personally. If both are undisputed 1st ruck for their sides then you need them on field but I really like the rucks more than most lines so would rather spend some cash there. Also adds a lot more security if something goes wrong. The R3 is a F/R to keep the flex spot open, ideally someone who is playing pops up. Becomes interesting if it's a Barnett type who is the best R3 choice without the DPP, at least to start the season.
No preseason issues is really narrowing things for me.
Gawn gets an exception because he's Gawn and proven but otherwise Marshall, English and Darcy have all been ruled out. So really down to Xerri and his awful bye, Gawn, Nank and, maybe TDK (although he might also be injured and also has an awful bye).
I think I'm just going to have to accept that the r12 bye is where my season ends and just have fun until then
No preseason issues is really narrowing things for me.
Gawn gets an exception because he's Gawn and proven but otherwise Marshall, English and Darcy have all been ruled out. So really down to Xerri and his awful bye, Gawn, Nank and, maybe TDK (although he might also be injured and also has an awful bye).
I think I'm just going to have to accept that the r12 bye is where my season ends and just have fun until then
I'm toying with the idea of starting TDK (no Pittonet as the rider) because of his draw over the first 6 or 7 rounds then flicking him to Xerri. TDK's draw get's a bit tougher.
Xerri's draw is quite tough over the same period, barring his round one matchup against the Dogs where he scored 141 twice last year. His draw get's quite a bit easier after that.
The $100k saving could see a 20PPG increase somewhere else on the ground, Reid > Coleman for example.
Best case is a $50k increase for TDK where he could match or even outperform Xerri. Combined with a $50k decrease in Xerri. Could be a $200k difference over the first 6 rounds with quite a few more points on field over the first half of the season.
Starting Xerri might see an average of 110 for 6 rounds along with an on field def rookie scoring 70, so, 1080 pts/6 rounds
Starting TDK could be 120/ 6 rounds and Coleman 90/ 6 rounds, so, 1260 pts/6 rounds.
Xerrie could then outscore TDK by 20PPG up to the byes (possibly over the rest of the season), so, 120 pts.
The total gain could be 300 pts up to the byes as well as a possible keeper in Coleman (stepping stone at least) all for the cost of 1 trade.
Quite a few assumptions there, but based on the hardness of the draw and conservative projections I don't think it's unrealistic.
Scale of hardness for rucks.
Xerri's draw is quite tough over the same period, barring his round one matchup against the Dogs where he scored 141 twice last year. His draw get's quite a bit easier after that.
The $100k saving could see a 20PPG increase somewhere else on the ground, Reid > Coleman for example.
Best case is a $50k increase for TDK where he could match or even outperform Xerri. Combined with a $50k decrease in Xerri. Could be a $200k difference over the first 6 rounds with quite a few more points on field over the first half of the season.
Starting Xerri might see an average of 110 for 6 rounds along with an on field def rookie scoring 70, so, 1080 pts/6 rounds
Starting TDK could be 120/ 6 rounds and Coleman 90/ 6 rounds, so, 1260 pts/6 rounds.
Xerrie could then outscore TDK by 20PPG up to the byes (possibly over the rest of the season), so, 120 pts.
The total gain could be 300 pts up to the byes as well as a possible keeper in Coleman (stepping stone at least) all for the cost of 1 trade.
Quite a few assumptions there, but based on the hardness of the draw and conservative projections I don't think it's unrealistic.
Scale of hardness for rucks.
No. Just those players that would be considered ruck only for their team. Did not include forwards or hybrid fwd/ruck players like Cox, Jackson etc as their fwd position would distort the points they score from marks. Given that the comment was "best mark of the options there is" and I took that to be options from pure rucks. But if that isn't the case then I'm happy to be corrected.
Haha, I had to Google that as it was an unknown known
I'd like to think of it as playing the percentages and things like the scale of hardness help me differentiate a 50/50 decision on a starting choice, maybe these are known knowns, but with the uncertainty of the unknowns this year.
Had a similar plan with Green last year, although that was driven by his early bye and the possible availability of Walsh after a few rounds. Green had matchups against North and WCE before his early bye, so the plan was to flick him to Walsh in round 3 when he became available. Walsh was back in round 5 which threw me a little, particularly after Green scored 152 & 137 in those 2 games, which made it extremely difficult to trade him out. The ideal move would have been to trade him to Serong, who I got anyway but by a different route.
I'd like to think of it as playing the percentages and things like the scale of hardness help me differentiate a 50/50 decision on a starting choice, maybe these are known knowns, but with the uncertainty of the unknowns this year.
Had a similar plan with Green last year, although that was driven by his early bye and the possible availability of Walsh after a few rounds. Green had matchups against North and WCE before his early bye, so the plan was to flick him to Walsh in round 3 when he became available. Walsh was back in round 5 which threw me a little, particularly after Green scored 152 & 137 in those 2 games, which made it extremely difficult to trade him out. The ideal move would have been to trade him to Serong, who I got anyway but by a different route.
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Yeh I said he was close to one of the better marks. The part about #1 is if he was main ruck. Marshall is elite at accumulating marks but not a great mark compared to others. If all rucks played the same player then he would be close in the 1v1. I probably should have said better hands
An impact marker.
9th is actually a great sign for a half time ruck.
An impact marker.
9th is actually a great sign for a half time ruck.
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