Analysis A Reflection on AFL SuperCoach Starting Teams - One of our revered coach NT.Thunder provides some insight

[NT.Thunder]

This is a great thread and looking at the teams over the seasons and your comment about how your team can look quite different by round 4, Iike IDIG I am curious about how much cash do your keep on hand for upgrades.

Yeah I don't tend to hold cash. My 'cash' is held in players like Libba last year if I have some spare. This usually gives me flexibility to trade down to a performing rookie I usually miss and someone else up to a bolter. If the player like Libba does start well then I bank the points early like last year and look elsewhere which can be difficult. I know everyone says hold trades, but it's critical to have a good team set going into round 4. Last year I ended up with 2 trades left going into round 23 with no where in my team to really use them even after early team adjustments.

Like I said interesting to look at ... from many perspectives ....

I'll take one as an example .... looking back at the 2019 starting prices compared to this years prices. ...
- Have no motive for doing this but just wanted to see the comparisons ...

DEF: Lloyd (down), Whitfield (up), Crisp (down) ....
MID: MacRae (down), Cripps (down), Oliver (down), Dusty (down)
RUC: Grundy (down), Gawn (up)
FWD: Paddy (down), Heeney (down), Telly (up)

So to me the question is what price are you prepared to pay for early points ... not many players will hold their value IMO .... even if I used a small sample size ...

I block prices out somewhat for premiums. It's irrelevant to me for the top tier players. I try to only select premium players that I think will be top 10 at least in their positions and for those that are top4 or so like Macrae, Grundy, Gawn etc. if they drop in price they usually only do so minimally. Most of these top line players still take some work to get into a team by trading whether it be cash or multiple trades. The ieda of waiting for guys like Grundy or Gawn to drop in price to trade from a Jacobs or even NN is so risky and usually needs a disciplined trade plan over a couple of weeks and in my experience SC throws curve balls each week which can ruin these plans and your season.

I got caught one year in this vicous circle and swore never again.

 

[IDIG]

No problems, I actually forgot I had these teams archived, I pulled them from our SCE Team Reveal threads over the years and is handy because I wanted to see if I had any trends in starting lineups over the years, mainly with structure as I know I preach GnR but wasn't sure I was as staunch as I preached at times.

Crisp was an interesting and late pick. Wasn't a fan of any options and in hindsight I would've moved him to Brodie Smith and moved Libba up to someone closer to $500k. Crisp I remember had a slow pre-season but a cracking final Marsh cup game where he racked up the numbers and i thought he might be a unique smoky. love the way he plays, love watching him and never misses a game so i pencilled him in as a D6 from the start and thought he'd improve. He was frustrating as I really thought he is one of those player CD target each year and score down. Unique yes and frustrating but I was proud of myself to carry him all year, maybe stupid.

Libba as funny as it sounds I never wanted, was just the best option with the left over money I had and I've never been one to hold cash into round 1. Rocky sits on my never again list, I'm too old for the heart pulpatations and SC rage he brings so I try and stay away. libba actually had a good run of games early but then Dunkley moved into the middle and we all know what hapenned there.

Lloyd/Macrae - I read an article a few years ago from someone who won it one year, might have even been Dimma but not sure and it said how they always pick the best on each line and I find myself concious of this when I pick my starting team on each line which is funny as this year I find myself shying away from lloyd due to the emergence of Dawson and flagged changes at Sydney. Lloyds been in and out and I'll watch the Swans set-up over pre-season but sometimes this doesn't show much as everyone knows how good Lloyd is down back so coaches can tend to trial players in unfamiliar areas giving false hope. I'm not scared off by some players with spikes, Macra always looked like that 120+ player and just needed consitency. Fitted the role, age profile well, for me it's more players like Hurn that scare me off after big seasons.

Dusty was gone early, can't remember but might hvae been round 3 or 4 when he copped a 2 week suspension. Think I traded early to Rowan Marshall IIRC. Dusty is all mindset for me, if he doesn't look interested in his footy or carries a niggle it seems to really affect his game and something just looked off, the 2 weeks was enough for me to part ways.

Don't usually leave cash but maybe something i need to think about.

I do get very stubborn on picks and find it difficult to move players in and out of my starting team that I'm bullish on. This year it's some top tier mids and forwards that I'm struggling to move on if I need cash and also the Grundy and Gawn combo, for me to break this combo they would need to miss round 1 and even then..............

Thanks mate. Agree with Crisp. Seemed to be underscored on more than one occasion and one I avoided because it seemed like CD simply didn’t like him.

I was burnt by Libba the year before so passed on him, and of course he smashed it early so I traded him in, for him to then get injured and burn me again. Rocky same story lol. The reason why I asked was because Hanners seems to fit the bill this year. Historically a strong scorer who just can’t get his body right but is nicely priced (maybe not quite cheap enough?) and in an improving team. Are you giving him any thought?

Macrae I feel good about at his price, and obviously Grundy and Gawn* are two others that are near certainties to top their position which leaves Lloyd and Whitfield on the other lines. Like you said, there appears to be enough reasons to not pick Lloyd and Whitfield for me is a wait and see for reasons I mentioned in the fwds thread (noting you have a differing view). Leads me to the question ‘when is the best on each line, no longer the best’...guess that’s the name of the game really!

 

[NT.Thunder]

Thanks mate. Agree with Crisp. Seemed to be underscored on more than one occasion and one I avoided because it seemed like CD simply didn’t like him.

I was burnt by Libba the year before so passed on him, and of course he smashed it early so I traded him in, for him to then get injured and burn me again. Rocky same story lol. The reason why I asked was because Hanners seems to fit the bill this year. Historically a strong scorer who just can’t get his body right but is nicely priced (maybe not quite cheap enough?) and in an improving team. Are you giving him any thought?

Macrae I feel good about at his price, and obviously Grundy and Gawn* are two others that are near certainties to top their position which leaves Lloyd and Whitfield on the other lines. Like you said, there appears to be enough reasons to not pick Lloyd and Whitfield for me is a wait and see for reasons I mentioned in the fwds thread (noting you have a differing view). Leads me to the question ‘when is the best on each line, no longer the best’...guess that’s the name of the game really!

Hanners is someone I'm keeping an eye on. I'll admit his end to 2017 and 2018 season turned me away and his injury concerns since as seen him fall of the RADAR for me but if his role and fitness these next few weeks look promising his price does fit that spot. Trying this season not to have that mid pricer but I know my structure will revert to it.

 

[IDIG]

Hanners is someone I'm keeping an eye on. I'll admit his end to 2017 and 2018 season turned me away and his injury concerns since as seen him fall of the RADAR for me but if his role and fitness these next few weeks look promising his price does fit that spot. Trying this season not to have that mid pricer but I know my structure will revert to it.

Yeah he's definitely one of those types of picks that you'll be kicking yourself for later, when he inevitably misses as week if the last few years are anything to go by. He's on my watchlist too but hoping the rookies show up like they always do, so i don't have to go beyond Devon in the price bracket.

 

[THCLT]

Crisp was an interesting and late pick. Wasn't a fan of any options and in hindsight I would've moved him to Brodie Smith and moved Libba up to someone closer to $500k. Crisp I remember had a slow pre-season but a cracking final Marsh cup game where he racked up the numbers and i thought he might be a unique smoky. love the way he plays, love watching him and never misses a game so i pencilled him in as a D6 from the start and thought he'd improve. He was frustrating as I really thought he is one of those player CD target each year and score down. Unique yes and frustrating but I was proud of myself to carry him all year, maybe stupid.

This made me feel good about my decision to also stick fat with him last season, despite the many urges to rid him from my team.

I don't think I'm stupid so you're definitely not.