Analysis BBL|09 Player's Price & Break Even Projections by TAILS

Tails

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Round 9 Game 1 update:

Note 1: PER players have another game to play yet so price changes will change yet ... it will actually level out because of the DGW !!
Note 2: Any player that didn't play will not get the predicted price change ...

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THCLT

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So we will get of Livingstone next round but Jhye and Marsh are still on the rise and will make later trades easier for those that have them and can hold on. Boland now becomes a must go unless you want to hang on for the last round double.
The table posted above for Scorchers players is not a 'true' reflection of where they sit after their 1st of a DGR as the calculations are based on the standard 3-Rd rolling method which would be correct outside of a DGR. The reason being is that the site only do the ONE pricing & BE calculations at the END of a particular round, regardless of whether a player plays 1 or 2 games. As such, players on a DGR only get the ONE price increase and NOT the customary 2 if they were to play those 2 games during a SGR. It's one of the vagary in the way they treat and calculate player's pricing & BE during a DGR. It took me a few years to finally crack their code, whether I agree with that approach is another debate.

To provide some examples using the 3 Scorchers players you've mentioned and what their projected prices & BEs will be post their 2nd game scores.

R9 Liam Livingstone $173,800
56 & 50 $172,100 BE 71
56 & 100 $184,200 BE 34

R9 Jhye Richardson $189,500
144 & 50 $203,000 BE 15
144 & 100 $215,100 BE -22

R9 Mitch Marsh $203,800
98 & 50 $231,200 BE 90
98 & 100 $243,300 BE 53
 
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Round 9 Game 1 update:

Note 1: PER players have another game to play yet so price changes will change yet ... it will actually level out because of the DGW !!
Note 2: Any player that didn't play will not get the predicted price change ...

View attachment 14504

View attachment 14505
slim pickings , apart from Short , for the Hurricanes looking at that.

Qais looks like a 40 player.

Boland/Ellis/Rogers all up and down , Faulkner due back (?)

Wade dropping

McDermott out of touch

Miller will be free
 
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The table posted above for Scorchers players is not a 'true' reflection of where they sit after their 1st of a DGR as the calculations are based on the standard 3-Rd rolling method which would be correct outside of a DGR. The reason being is that the site only do the ONE pricing & BE calculations at the END of a particular round, regardless of whether a player plays 1 or 2 games. As such, players on a DGR only get the ONE price increase and NOT the customary 2 if they were to play those 2 games during a SGR. It's one of the vagary in the way they treat and calculate player's pricing & BE during a DGR. It took me a few years to finally crack their code, whether I agree with that approach is another debate.

To provide some examples using the 3 Scorchers players you've mentioned and what their projected prices & BEs will be post their 2nd game scores.

R9 Liam Livingstone $173,800
56 & 50 $172,100 BE 71
56 & 100 $184,200 BE 34

R9 Jhye Richardson $189,500
144 & 50 $203,000 BE 15
144 & 100 $215,100 BE -22

R9 Mitch Marsh $203,800
98 & 50 $231,200 BE 90
98 & 100 $243,300 BE 53
Almost a straight swap from Bison to TC
 
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The projected 24k price rise will cause such an affect ... the higher you are priced the harder it is to maintain ....
While this is true I think the strange BE affect is driven more by the 138 from R7 which will drop out of his rolling average after R10.

It was a low BE this round because of the 8 from R6 exiting his rolling average.

He’s usually a $180k max kind of player. just have look up his scores this season. He’s a bit of a roller coaster which always keeps him generally affordable when you need him.

The 2 two junk time wickets today were very handy for owners. he’s not an elite 20-20 wicket taker but came through today.
 

THCLT

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So Cutting went from a BE of -13 to a BE of 64 with a score of 86... Perhaps it wasn't "now or never"!
The projected 24k price rise will cause such an affect ... the higher you are priced the harder it is to maintain ....
Oh it makes sense, I think it was @Hondo who correctly highlighted this point in game.
He had that 138 from R7 in his 3-Rd rolling average coming into R9 hence the negative BE. That has now dropped out of his 3-Rd rolling average, replaced by the 86 he scored today.

The negative BE helps to boost his price for next round, but since that 138 has been replaced by a 'lower' 86, he'll need to score higher next round to maintain his price.

If he scores 100 next round, he'll go up to around $195K with a BE of 15. Why you may ask...? This is because the next score to drop off his 3-Rd rolling average is a much lower score of 42 back in R8.

In short, the BE is only a guide to how likely a player's pricing is going to increase/decrease for the following round, that is, it shouldn't be viewed as a 'sustained' growth over several rounds as it's really dependent on where that big score sits in the pricing cycle and how big that was. Stoinis for example will be sustained for at least another 2 rounds just by him scoring 50s as that big score is not only his most recent but also very BIG. He'll peak for the start of R11 at $270K by scoring 50s but his BE will be in the order of 150+ as that 244 will no longer be in his pricing cycle. If he scores 100s over his next 2 game, his price will be $300k+ and will need to continue scoring 100s to maintain that price. If he reaches that price, you can buy a Lynn + Wade and still have plenty of change left over.:eek:
 
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Stoinis for example will be sustained for at least another 2 rounds just by him scoring 50s as that big score is not only his most recent but also very BIG. He'll peak for the start of R11 at $270K by scoring 50s but his BE will be in the order of 150+ as that 244 will no longer be in his pricing cycle. If he scores 100s over his next 2 game, his price will be $300k+ and will need to continue scoring 100s to maintain that price. If he reaches that price, you can buy a Lynn + Wade and still have plenty of change left over.:eek:
I got Stoinis in exactly for a hoped for spending spree when he maxes out. I wonder if it will work out like that.
 
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Why can't you bring him in for R12...?
Only have 3 trades

Carey , Finch , Short are my proposed 3 ins although need to check flight times from India.

Could always forego Finch

Week 13 is Richo + 2 Heat

and have to save one just in case

Actually prefer Weatherald to Head to be honest
 
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