BBL|11 Player's Price & Break Even Projections by TAILS

[AryaBosses]

Hey guys, does anyone know what nabis breakeven is?

 

[Rowsus]

Mrs Rowsus trades
Out: Richo, Inglis, Vince - In: Finch, Wade, Lamichhane

 

[Rowsus]

Hey guys, does anyone know what nabis breakeven is?

You're new here, so we will forgive you this once!
It has been spoon fed to you, in 2 tables above.
It is 91.

 

[Tails]

Mrs Rowsus trades
Out: Richo, Inglis, Vince - In: Finch, Wade, Lamichhane

Thanks ... have just amended it to reflect those trades ...

 

[Tails]

Round 6 / Game 1 update (#22):

- HOB v ADE @ Blundstone Arena (6.05 pm start)

Notes:
- ADE won the toss and decided to Bat first
- HOB players have another game to play yet so price changes will change yet again because of the DGR !!
- So this is not a "true" reflection yet until the next game is completed ... please don't do any trades based on that teams predictions just yet ..
- No X Factor players were used this game

 

[Tails]

Round 6 / Game 2 update (#23):

- BRI v MELS @ Gabba (9.05 pm start)

Notes:
- BRI won the toss and decided to Bowl first
- HOB players have another game to play yet so price changes will change yet again because of the DGR !!
- So this is not a "true" reflection yet until the next game is completed ... please don't do any trades based on that teams predictions just yet ..
- No X Factor players were used this game

 

[Professor]

Round 6 / Game 2 update (#23):

- BRI v MELS @ Gabba (9.05 pm start)

Notes:
- BRI won the toss and decided to Bowl first
- HOB players have another game to play yet so price changes will change yet again because of the DGR !!
- So this is not a "true" reflection yet until the next game is completed ... please don't do any trades based on that teams predictions just yet ..
- No X Factor players were used this game

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Stoinis to warm the bench 😁

 

[AryaBosses]

These breakevens aren’t accurate tho

 

[Rowsus]

These breakevens aren’t accurate tho

Which ones?
And state your source, or reasoning.

 

[Connoisseur]

These breakevens aren’t accurate tho

Neither are the pricing determinations by SC this season as illustrated by @THCLT on the previous page (Post 142).

 

[AryaBosses]

But in the end the BEs r coming from SC and price changes r determined from SC

 

[AryaBosses]

Like I’m actually admiring ur effort and creativity to get proper breakevens tho keep up the great work yall

 

[Bomber18]

But in the end the BEs r coming from SC and price changes r determined from SC

No need to post here and look at these tables if you aren’t interested in them.

FWIW Tails is calculating these breakevens immediately after games using a logical / the “right” approach.

As per THCLT’s post at 142, which I copy below, SC are not using logical or even a consistent method to calculate breakevens. From what I have seen behind the scenes, SC are even applying the calculations differently between players from the same team - so it is an impossible task to predict the breakevens given that there is no consistent method in the way SC applies the DGRs to a player’s price.

I recently completed my usual early season review on the pricings for Heat/Sixers/Strikers players post their respective DGRs and I'm no closer to the truth of what actually goes on at HQ!

In summary, the actual player's pricing (post DGR) is only remotely TRUE if the following assumptions were made for their 3-Rd average score:

• Heat = 1A+3+4
• Sixers = Ave(1A+1B)+2+3
• Strikers = 2A+2B+4

So from the 3 above teams who have had a player's price change post their DGR, we've got THREE DIFFERENT CALCS...!!!

Which one will they pull out from their hat for the Stars & Scorchers players come the end of R5...?

For reference and transparency, the Strikers (2A+2B+4) is the correct calcs which they should be using for ALL players post their DGRs. This is also the calcs which @Tails has adopted for his template, if for whatever reason HQ decides to deviate from this then what is publish on here for player's post their DGRs will not mirror with what actually happens on the SC BBL site.

It's an impossible task for Tails (or anyone for that matter) to consistently forecast the inherent inconsistency of their system. At least Tails is consistent in his approach and for those following Brice Mitchell on twitter then you'll find that what is posted here aligns well with his tweets.

 

[mike89]

I've read that post several times and I still struggle to understand how SC get their calculations that mixed up. At this point I can only assume it's on purpose to prevent people from deriving the formula, which is both self-defeating and quite unfair - you only need to look what happened to Philippe's price nonsensically after round 3.

 

[Jim's Dim Sims]

As mentioned these BEs cannot be 100% accurate because SC's own formula is not consistent. However, they are an extremely good estimate being provided free of charge. A good estimate is all you need to guide your trades anyway. A slight difference in BE will rarely affect your trade strategy.

Edit: affect not effect

 

[Tails]

Round 6 / Game 3 update (#24):

- SYDT v PER @ Manuka Oval (7.15 pm start)

Notes:
- PER won the toss and decided to Bowl first
- PER used an X Factor player (Hatzoglou out for Morris)

 

[Tails]

Round 6 / Game 4 update (#25):

- SYD6 v BRI @ SCG (6.05 pm start)

Notes:
- BRI won the toss and decided to Bat first
- BRI used an X Factor player (Kuhnemann out for Wildermuth)

 

[Tails]

Round 6 / Game 5 update (#26):

- MELR v HOB @ Marvel Stadium (7.15 pm start)

Notes:
- MELR won the toss and decided to Bowl first
- No X Factor players were used this game

 

[Tails]

Round 6 combined summary:

 

[Tails]

Will be seeking the updated BE's for at least 6 SGR players from last round once SC updates ....

SYD6: Phillipe, Abbott, DC
SYDT: Sams, Sangha (J), Gilkes
MELR: Finch

Thanks in advance as it should help us all !!