Analysis BBL | 14 Player's Price & Break Even Projections by TAILS

Under The Dome

Under The Dome

#81
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#81
Tails said:
Round 6 / Game 1 update (#25):

- BRI v SYDT @ Gabba(7.15 pm start)

Notes:

- SYDT still has another game to play yet so the price changes will change yet again because of the DGR !!
- so this is not a "true" reflection yet until the next game is completed ... please don't do any trades based on that teams predictions just yet ..

- BRI won the toss and decided to Bowl first ...

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Is the price of Johnson correct? I read 13 BE on your BE table from the day prior. Price should be up and I think Bartlett was under his
 
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Herbie66

Herbie66

#82
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#82
Under The Dome said:
Is the price of Johnson correct? I read 13 BE on your BE table from the day prior. Price should be up and I think Bartlett was under his
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Little bug in the formula , I think Renshaw's BE was 48 so he should have gained 💰.
 
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Tails

Tails

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#83
Under The Dome said:
Is the price of Johnson correct? I read 13 BE on your BE table from the day prior. Price should be up and I think Bartlett was under his
Click to expand...
I have amended the BRI price projections from last night ..
- had to create a new price change formula to deal with DGR's that I will keep an eye on to see how it goes

The BE's posted were correct but how they are calculated uses different formulas which I don't want to explain the complexity of them ...
- I can't control them as they are what they are ...

Johnson will have lost his 148 score out of his last threes scores
- so for price changes he lost a 148 and gained a 61 score (also priced to ave 57 so a slight loss)

Bartlett still has his 137 score in his last three scores
- so for price changes he lost a 9 and gained a 25 score (also priced to ave 66 so a slight gain)

Renshaw will have lost his 66 score out of his last threes scores
- so for price changes he lost a 66 and gained a 63 score (also priced to ave 36 so a slight loss)

I hope that makes sense ..

BE's and price changes are calculated differently depending on some variables which is I use three different formulas for BE's but only one for price changes ... it's the DGR's that complicate the BE's
 
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Tails

Tails

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#84
@Under The Dome

Well if looks like I might have found an additional price change formula ...

- will just have to test it over the next few rounds to see how it goes ...
- this hasn't been a new issue over the years and hopefully this will rectify it

I did some back testing using three PER players (Connolly, Behrendorrf and Agar) and one from ADE player (Overton) to compare ....

- it appears that when the 2nd DGR score is the first score in the three game rolling average that you take the DGR ave score
- I've now back tested it against a previous season and it works :)
 
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Tails

Tails

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#89
Top 20 teams - end of round 6

For those coaches at the pointy end of the overall ranking, this thread may be of some use as you endeavour to craft your way onward and upwards for the remainder of the season.

Notes:
- Below is a listing of players for the Top 20 teams with non-playing players greyed out and injured players in red text for ease of viewing.
- Also included is total points and points behind the leader for subsequent teams.
- There are at least 5 SCS members in it so far: @Dravid (Dads XI) 1st, @All is Wells (DJBravoChampion) 4th, , @Miller is a Steele (Miller is a Steele) 5th, @Beast_Mode (Tarantula) 5th and @JT23 (Tobes Troops) 7th

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