Defenders Discussion

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Yeah i tend to agree. Although i don't think he necessarily will, Daisy's recruitment could also have an impact on his scoring.
If he can get a gig on the wing, he will be a great pick up. But i don't see im as a pure defender. Needs to learn how to defend when the opposition has the ball and not just running down the wing.
 

Epidemick

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New defenders Mitchell, mcveigh, bartel, hodge. Dual position. 100+ points average. Does everyone agree they are locks to be top 10 defenders for the year? If these blokes are really set n forget why am I not seeing more love for them across this site? Yes they are expensive in your initial squad but you are saving an upgrade trade later on. I rate a trade to be worth $200,000 during the season. So if you apply this discount they are all under $380 k and dead set locks.
They can be afforded by having a midfield of two captain choices, two injury/ value picks & six rookies. When we look at players like Atley, C Pearce, Broadbent, D Swallow etc we are hoping they might by chance(1 in ____) become an Sam Mitchell. If you pick S Mitchell it's 1 in 1 100% A sure
thing!
Please share your thoughts :)
 

TeeButOne

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New defenders Mitchell, mcveigh, bartel, hodge. Dual position. 100+ points average. Does everyone agree they are locks to be top 10 defenders for the year? If these blokes are really set n forget why am I not seeing more love for them across this site? Yes they are expensive in your initial squad but you are saving an upgrade trade later on. I rate a trade to be worth $200,000 during the season. So if you apply this discount they are all under $380 k and dead set locks.
They can be afforded by having a midfield of two captain choices, two injury/ value picks & six rookies. When we look at players like Atley, C Pearce, Broadbent, D Swallow etc we are hoping they might by chance(1 in ____) become an Sam Mitchell. If you pick S Mitchell it's 1 in 1 100% A sure
thing!
Please share your thoughts :)
You're right, it's simply a cost factor. It's worth spending the extra bucks in the MID to get a couple of ULTRA premos (i.e.: Ablett, Pendles) because you can use then for Captaincy Loophole, and they'll be too hard to get later on. But in the FWD & DEF, the likelihood of those players holding their prices are very unlikely. At some point, they're bound to have a dodgy game, and their price will drop just long enough for you to pick them up during upgrade times. Remember, you've got 8 DEF positions to fill by the time your team is completed, so if you start with maybe 1 of these guys, you only need to keep a few spots available for the rest for upgrades:

Mitchell: Started 2013 at $593k ... dropped down to dropped almost $60k by the BYES
McVeigh: Doesn't count, as he only started last year at $526k
Walker: Again, doesn't count, as he only started last year at $423k
Bartel: Doesn't count, as he only started last year at $527k

Even just a cursory inspection of some of the premium players shows the same thing:

Cotchin: One dodgy game in R6, and his price drops $50k from where he started
Jack: Iffy game in R3, and he drops $40k
Kennedy: Low score in R4, and he drops something like $70k

Not the best examples, I know, but the overall point is that they're not value for money (at least not yet anyway).
 

Blacky Rules

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would be very hard to fit those 4 defenders mentioned and still 2 primo's in each other position, that's a lot of rookies(most of whom have gone up in price from previous seasons) to fill the last spots
 

Epidemick

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Thanks teebutone. Yes it's the whole value vs scores on the board before the byes that's doing my head in. The defenders I've mentioned avg more than 100. Your right they can throw in an 80 and drop in price. But they all have form to score the odd 150 plus. The sort of score that can make your week.
 

Rowsus

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New defenders Mitchell, mcveigh, bartel, hodge. Dual position. 100+ points average. Does everyone agree they are locks to be top 10 defenders for the year? If these blokes are really set n forget why am I not seeing more love for them across this site? Yes they are expensive in your initial squad but you are saving an upgrade trade later on. I rate a trade to be worth $200,000 during the season. So if you apply this discount they are all under $380 k and dead set locks.
They can be afforded by having a midfield of two captain choices, two injury/ value picks & six rookies. When we look at players like Atley, C Pearce, Broadbent, D Swallow etc we are hoping they might by chance(1 in ____) become an Sam Mitchell. If you pick S Mitchell it's 1 in 1 100% A sure
thing!
Please share your thoughts :)
I think you might have answered your own question. Not everyone thinks they are locks for top 10 Defender positions. Maybe the better question is, why don't people think they are locks for top 10 Defender positions?
In general, high priced Defenders have a terrible record of justifying their price. There are 3 ways to compare players performances: average/game, total points and PIT score/average. If you've read any of my threads, you know I favour the PIT system, where a players missed games are replaced by a Rookie score to determine their season total/average. For Def Rookies I use 65 points. In 2013 only 4 of the 10 most expensive Defenders made the season ending top 10 PIT list. Goddard was most expensive, and top PIT scorer. Gibbs was 3rd most expensive, and 9th best PIT score. Shaw H was 5th most expensive, and 8th best PIT score. Enright was 8th most expensive, and 7th best PIT score. The other 6 players that started the season in the 10 most expensive Defenders were: Scotland, Hartlett, Waters, Birchall, Duffield and Reilly.
Let's look at the players you think they aren't getting the love they deserve.
Mitchell - priced at 104.2, I think he will be quite popular when push comes to shove, and people have to lock a team in. I think he will be in the top 8 - 10 most popular Defs, when we get to see the "ownership" numbers.
Bartel - priced at 106.1, prior to 2013 was on a very steady decline - 126, 116, 109, 102, 101, 99 then last season bounced back to 106. If his scoring is a trend, he is more likely to average 98 this season, than 108. While 98 will be good enough for a top10 Def finish, no one wants to pay 106 for 98 point player, especially given most high priced players drop by 8% in their first price change.
McVeigh - priced at 106.1, he has had 6 seasons in a row over 90/game, but the 106 looks like a jump. I think people are avoiding him because he is a 96/game player, based on his history, that's priced at 106. It's a little bit like Deledio in 2012. He was 105/game player, that jumped to 116/game. sure enough, he returned to being a 105/game in 2013. Similar to Jimmy, people are hesitant to pay top dollar, for a player they really aren't confident will score at the same level again. They's rather wait for that inevitable price change. Once again, 96/game will probably see him make the top 10 Def list.
Hodge - priced at 96.7, and everyone is pretty sure he will miss games for one reason or another. I'm pretty sure he will get "managed" for 2 or 3 games in 2014, on top of some likely injury misses. Paying high prices for players that you are pretty sure will miss games is not generally a good idea. While he might play 19 or 20 games, everyone is a bit gun shy that he might play 15. It's just considered to high of a risk to pay the 96.7 for him, given the likelihood of missed games. There will be plenty of Coaches willing to leave him out of the expected top 10 Defenders list.
You wonder why Atley, Pearce, Broadbent and Swallow are appearing in teams. To be honest I wonder about why Atley and Pearce do, but I can understand Broadbent and Swallow do. Everyone is just trying to find 2014's Hibberd, Murphy R, Thompson SD, Hanley, Taylor and Adcock, who weren't in the 10 most expensive Defenders in round 1, but all of them finished in the top 10 PIT Defenders by the end of the season. 4 of them weren't even in the top 15 most expensive Defenders.
 
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I think you might have answered your own question. Not everyone thinks they are locks for top 10 Defender positions. Maybe the better question is, why don't people think they are locks for top 10 Defender positions?
In general, high priced Defenders have a terrible record of justifying their price. There are 3 ways to compare players performances: average/game, total points and PIT score/average. If you've read any of my threads, you know I favour the PIT system, where a players missed games are replaced by a Rookie score to determine their season total/average. For Def Rookies I use 65 points. In 2013 only 4 of the 10 most expensive Defenders made the season ending top 10 PIT list. Goddard was most expensive, and top PIT scorer. Gibbs was 3rd most expensive, and 9th best PIT score. Shaw H was 5th most expensive, and 8th best PIT score. Enright was 8th most expensive, and 7th best PIT score. The other 6 players that started the season in the 10 most expensive Defenders were: Scotland, Hartlett, Waters, Birchall, Duffield and Reilly.
Let's look at the players you think they aren't getting the love they deserve.
Mitchell - priced at 104.2, I think he will be quite popular when push comes to shove, and people have to lock a team in. I think he will be in the top 8 - 10 most popular Defs, when we get to see the "ownership" numbers.
Bartel - priced at 106.1, prior to 2013 was on a very steady decline - 126, 116, 109, 102, 101, 99 then last season bounced back to 106. If his scoring is a trend, he is more likely to average 98 this season, than 108. While 98 will be good enough for a top10 Def finish, no one wants to pay 106 for 98 point player, especially given most high priced players drop by 8% in their first price change.
McVeigh - priced at 106.1, he has had 6 seasons in a row over 90/game, but the 106 looks like a jump. I think people are avoiding him because he is a 96/game player, based on his history, that's priced at 106. It's a little bit like Deledio in 2012. He was 105/game player, that jumped to 116/game. sure enough, he returned to being a 105/game in 2013. Similar to Jimmy, people are hesitant to pay top dollar, for a player they really aren't confident will score at the same level again. They's rather wait for that inevitable price change. Once again, 96/game will probably see him make the top 10 Def list.
Hodge - priced at 96.7, and everyone is pretty sure he will miss games for one reason or another. I'm pretty sure he will get "managed" for 2 or 3 games in 2014, on top of some likely injury misses. Paying high prices for players that you are pretty sure will miss games is not generally a good idea. While he might play 19 or 20 games, everyone is a bit gun shy that he might play 15. It's just considered to high of a risk to pay the 96.7 for him, given the likelihood of missed games. There will be plenty of Coaches willing to leave him out of the expected top 10 Defenders list.
You wonder why Atley, Pearce, Broadbent and Swallow are appearing in teams. To be honest I wonder about why Atley and Pearce do, but I can understand Broadbent and Swallow do. Everyone is just trying to find 2014's Hibberd, Murphy R, Thompson SD, Hanley, Taylor and Adcock, who weren't in the 10 most expensive Defenders in round 1, but all of them finished in the top 10 PIT Defenders by the end of the season. 4 of them weren't even in the top 15 most expensive Defenders.
If i'm reading this correctly, the general piece of advice would be to skip the 2/3 most expensive/dual position players and look for value? Rattling a few names off the likes of Hurn, Henderson, Grimes, Duffield, Fisher, D Swallow, etc, who are beyond the top 10 most popular def and picking 1 or 2 of them and hoping for a 10-15ppg increase would be the way to go?
 

Demolished

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1/ Mitchell
2/ Hibberd
3/ Hanley
4/ Bartel
5/ Thompson
6/ McVeigh
Hibberd? He would be a nice POD with a friendly bye. I've had him in and out of my side all pre-season. What makes you so confident he'll be the second top averaging defender?
 

Rowsus

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If i'm reading this correctly, the general piece of advice would be to skip the 2/3 most expensive/dual position players and look for value? Rattling a few names off the likes of Hurn, Henderson, Grimes, Duffield, Fisher, D Swallow, etc, who are beyond the top 10 most popular def and picking 1 or 2 of them and hoping for a 10-15ppg increase would be the way to go?
People tend to think that the higher priced players in any given position are "safe" picks. The truth is, apart from Ablett, Pendlebury, Swan and Goddard when he was a Defender, the higher priced players actually have a pretty poor record of backing up their opening prices/last years scores. They are the only players that are/were consistently in the top section of their playing groups. Interestingly enough, when you get down to the lower end of say, the top 10 PIT Defenders each year, you can find some consistency. Players like Enright and Adcock consistently sneak into the bottom end of the table. If I find time, I will make some tables for the last 4 or 5 years, that demonstrate how much each group changes from year to year.
 

Goodie's Guns

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Interesting to see that after 20 votes in the poll of:

McVeigh vs. Bartel

Both have 10 votes each, so 50% each atm when having to chose one or the other. I wonder what it would look like if it was:

Mitchell vs. McVeigh vs. Bartel :confused:

I would think 50%, 25%, 25% roughly.
 

Epidemick

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People tend to think that the higher priced players in any given position are "safe" picks. The truth is, apart from Ablett, Pendlebury, Swan and Goddard when he was a Defender, the higher priced players actually have a pretty poor record of backing up their opening prices/last years scores. They are the only players that are/were consistently in the top section of their playing groups. Interestingly enough, when you get down to the lower end of say, the top 10 PIT Defenders each year, you can find some consistency. Players like Enright and Adcock consistently sneak into the bottom end of the table. If I find time, I will make some tables for the last 4 or 5 years, that demonstrate how much each group changes from year to year.
These guys have all been classified as mid only in some years. I feel they are still mids. I appreciate that hodge may only get his 20 games again but with the bye and a couple of split rounds it should not be any less. I'm loving the conversation and I have teams written down without these guys. But as we speak I have them down to between 98-105 plus. I'm trying to sneak them in :)
 
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Not sure if he's been mentioned - but anybody thinking of Jackson Thurlow at 285k?
Very awkwardly priced and only played a handful of games, but with Josh Hunt going to GWS could that mean a potential spot up for grabs that he is likely to take? Had four games in 2013 of 77 (vs Ess), 85 (vs Coll), 31 (vs Port), and 72 (vs GWS).
Did get injured later in the year, although finished off pretty well in the VFL. Very risky pick, but could have good upside in him if he gets regular games which could make him a potential D5 starter - thoughts?
 

Nk29

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Not sure if he's been mentioned - but anybody thinking of Jackson Thurlow at 285k?
Very awkwardly priced and only played a handful of games, but with Josh Hunt going to GWS could that mean a potential spot up for grabs that he is likely to take? Had four games in 2013 of 77 (vs Ess), 85 (vs Coll), 31 (vs Port), and 72 (vs GWS).
Did get injured later in the year, although finished off pretty well in the VFL. Very risky pick, but could have good upside in him if he gets regular games which could make him a potential D5 starter - thoughts?
Love the way he plays and his scoring potential, but I just don't see him getting enough games. Yes, Josh Hunt left, but he was definitely not in our best 22 last year. The only reason he was playing was because Enright was injured (personally I was actually hoping at the time that Thurlow would get the nod, and still reckon it would have been the right decision). The problem for Thurlow is dislodging Enright, Mackie or Guthrie, which is near impossible, if he wants a spot. While he can play up the ground, we are pretty flush for outside mids and forwards so he'll really struggle to get games this year IMO.
 

Bobbie

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Love the way he plays and his scoring potential, but I just don't see him getting enough games. Yes, Josh Hunt left, but he was definitely not in our best 22 last year. The only reason he was playing was because Enright was injured (personally I was actually hoping at the time that Thurlow would get the nod, and still reckon it would have been the right decision). The problem for Thurlow is dislodging Enright, Mackie or Guthrie, which is near impossible, if he wants a spot. While he can play up the ground, we are pretty flush for outside mids and forwards so he'll really struggle to get games this year IMO.
NK, you mention Enright. Just wondering what your thoughts are regarding him this year? He has been in and out of my side a fair bit (swapping between him and Hibberd). I am really after consistency in defence this year.
 

IDIG

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Don't know a great deal about him or if he's even SC relevant but Lee Spurr $390k has been elevated to Freo's leadership group.
2012 - 11 games @ 69
2013 - 20 games @ 72
 
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People tend to think that the higher priced players in any given position are "safe" picks. The truth is, apart from Ablett, Pendlebury, Swan and Goddard when he was a Defender, the higher priced players actually have a pretty poor record of backing up their opening prices/last years scores. They are the only players that are/were consistently in the top section of their playing groups. Interestingly enough, when you get down to the lower end of say, the top 10 PIT Defenders each year, you can find some consistency. Players like Enright and Adcock consistently sneak into the bottom end of the table. If I find time, I will make some tables for the last 4 or 5 years, that demonstrate how much each group changes from year to year.
This would be really useful should you get time!
 

Nk29

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NK, you mention Enright. Just wondering what your thoughts are regarding him this year? He has been in and out of my side a fair bit (swapping between him and Hibberd). I am really after consistency in defence this year.
Can't see him dropping at all. Shown no signs of slipping. Should get a 90-95 average and 20-21 games out of him.
 
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Oh yes, very good points there mate! Cheers for that - maybe in a couple years he could be a very handy selection when he looks to be set into your best 22 :)
 
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