Analysis Premium Point of Difference

[Percination]

Shane Tuck is my premium POD this year. Scored 130+ on ten occasions last year. I think with Cotchin copping a tag most weeks, and with Deledio basically a perma mid Tuck will have more of a free reign to pluck marks and gather possys at will (like the 11 marks he reeled in against Essendon round 22).

He's comin up 32 this year, but really, does age apply to a Tuck? haha

 

[Drew]

Brad Ebert for me. Port's highest averaged player last year at only 100 so he's a cheap mid premium and i have a gut feeling Port will show a bit of improvement this year under Hinkley and priced at an average of 100 he's got plenty of upside (hopefully!).

 

[AngryAnt]

Hasn't Mundy just reinjured his ankle?

 

[MICHELANGELO]

I've gone Jack and Dal Santo. Thinking of downgrading Swan to S Selwood and keeping cash.

 

[Grant]

Hasn't Mundy just reinjured his ankle?

You talking about today? I could only find a january 30 story. Played a few games since then.

 

[bringbackFEV]

Great article again Jay.
I like that you touched on peoples unwillingness to change their minds, or jump ship, from their original decision.
It's a human nature thing that has been exploited by magicians, and games shows, for years.
I read some psychological research on this about 10 years ago. It pretty much boiled down to most people would stay with their original choice in over 90% of cases, even if the logical thing to do to was change their mind. It seems there is greater disappointment attached to changing your mind, and later being proven your first pick was right, than in keeping your first pick and seeing it fail.
Many many years ago, there was a game show that culminated with the nights winner being presented 3 curtains. Their prize for the night was hidden behind the curtain they chose. There was one great prize (car or holiday etc) and 2 pretty average prizes (cooking set or worse) hidden behind each curtain. After the winner chose their curtain, they were then shown one of the "bad" prizes behind one of the two curtains they didn't choose. After seeing that "bad" prize they were offered the opportunity to keep their original curtain, or swap to the other unopened curtain.
History will show that nearly ever contestant kept their original curtain.
Maths will show, if they swapped, they drastically improved their chances of winning the better prize.
Why wouldn't they swap! Human nature is an amazing thing. Sometimes, even if you just have to force yourself to fight it, you are much much better off!

Watch the movie 21 if you don't understand this. This exact theory is fully explained, plus it's a good movie

 

[GrainFedBeef]

I have seen this explained elsewhere, but looks to be an illusion to me.

here's my logic. 2 rooms next to each other (cannot see each other), each with three doors. Contestant A selects Door A. Contestant B selects Door B. Door C is opened for both players (bobby prie 1). Which one has the prize? 50/50 chance. nothing else. There is a saying, you shouldn't believe everything you hear/see in a movie or read in the papers.

 

[Rowsus]

I have seen this explained elsewhere, but looks to be an illusion to me.

here's my logic. 2 rooms next to each other (cannot see each other), each with three doors. Contestant A selects Door A. Contestant B selects Door B. Door C is opened for both players (bobby prie 1). Which one has the prize? 50/50 chance. nothing else. There is a saying, you shouldn't believe everything you hear/see in a movie or read in the papers.

There may be only one possible way to convince the doubters, and that's to long hand every possiblity!

Mr Stickfast plays the game, and never, ever swaps! Here is every single possible combination of events for him:
[table="width: 650"]
[tr]
[td]prize behind[/td]
[td]he chooses[/td]
[td]they reveal[/td]
[td]percentage[/td]
[td]result[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]door 1[/td]
[td]door 1[/td]
[td]door 2 or 3[/td]
[td]11.11%[/td]
[td]win[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]door 1[/td]
[td]door 2[/td]
[td]door 3[/td]
[td]11.11%[/td]
[td]lose[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]door 1[/td]
[td]door 3[/td]
[td]door 2[/td]
[td]11.11%[/td]
[td]lose[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]door 2[/td]
[td]door 1[/td]
[td]door 3[/td]
[td]11.11%[/td]
[td]lose[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]door 2[/td]
[td]door 2[/td]
[td]door 1 or 3[/td]
[td]11.11%[/td]
[td]win[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]door 2[/td]
[td]door 3[/td]
[td]door 1[/td]
[td]11.11%[/td]
[td]lose[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]door 3[/td]
[td]door 1[/td]
[td]door 2[/td]
[td]11.11%[/td]
[td]lose[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]door 3[/td]
[td]door 2[/td]
[td]door 1[/td]
[td]11.11%[/td]
[td]lose[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]door 3[/td]
[td]door 3[/td]
[td]door 1 or 2[/td]
[td]11.11%[/td]
[td]win[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td]wins[/td]
[td]33.33%[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td]loses[/td]
[td]66.66%[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]

Mr Smartplayer switches every single time. Here is every possible combination of events for him:

[table="width: 650"]
[tr]
[td]prize behind[/td]
[td]he chooses[/td]
[td]they reveal[/td]
[td]percentage[/td]
[td]result[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]door 1[/td]
[td]door 1[/td]
[td]door 2 or 3[/td]
[td]11.11%[/td]
[td]loses[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]door 1[/td]
[td]door 2[/td]
[td]door 3[/td]
[td]11.11%[/td]
[td]win[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]door 1[/td]
[td]door 3[/td]
[td]door 2[/td]
[td]11.11%[/td]
[td]win[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]door 2[/td]
[td]door 1[/td]
[td]door 3[/td]
[td]11.11%[/td]
[td]win[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]door 2[/td]
[td]door 2[/td]
[td]door 1 or 3[/td]
[td]11.11%[/td]
[td]loses[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]door 2[/td]
[td]door 3[/td]
[td]door 1[/td]
[td]11.11%[/td]
[td]win[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]door 3[/td]
[td]door 1[/td]
[td]door 2[/td]
[td]11.11%[/td]
[td]win[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]door 3[/td]
[td]door 2[/td]
[td]door 1[/td]
[td]11.11%[/td]
[td]win[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]door 3[/td]
[td]door 3[/td]
[td]door 1 or 2[/td]
[td]11.11%[/td]
[td]loses[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td]wins[/td]
[td]66.66%[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td]loses[/td]
[td]33.33%[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]

Basically, everytime he switches, he reverses his original result. As his orignal result was 33.3% win/66.7% loss, he has reversed that to 66.7% win/33.3% loss.
Try a practical experiment. Get your brother, mate or anyone that likes a little punt, that doesn't believe the figures above. Get 3 matchboxes, or coffee cups, or what ever can hide some coins. Let him hide $0.30 under one of the three without you seeing which one. You will pick one without ever touching the matchboxes/coffeecups. You pay him $0.10 and get to keep what you pick. He follows the rules, and reveals one of the empty matchboxes/coffee cups after you pick, and allows you to swap if you want. For goodness sakes, swap! Trust me, you'll win 2 out of 3 times. For every 3 times you do this, on average, you'll pay $0.30, and get $0.60 back. If he doesn't believe the figures, he'll think you'll win one in 3, so he thinks you'll pay $0.10 x 3 =$0.30 and get back $0.30.
If you want to sweeten the deal, and give him an "edge", tell him to put $0.25 under the cup. "Surely you must win! I'm a 1 in 3 chance of getting $0.25, so after 3 turns, on average, you'll get $0.30, and I'll only get $0.25 back!" - Pure rubbish, on average you'll get $0.50 back for $0.30 outlay. Try it just for fun with someone, and see if it doesn't work!

 

[OzRulesFootball]

Well explained with the tables Rowus. This makes it clear

 

[Jimace The Grimace]

Mundy.
Cracking end to last year, brilliant pre season (his scores have been great), fit and firing and is at least 120k underpriced.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

I stand corrected Rowus - I bow down in your awesomeness. Well done once again.

Now, if only you can help me with the following probabilities that are giving me headaches.

probability of:

Ablett's returns falling away as playing more in the fwd line (finishing off as McKenna said) and plenty of easy games early where he traditionally underperforms

Franklins returns falling away in initial games due to hard start to year

Pavlich returns falling away due to Judd syndrome (borth of baby causing lack of sleep)

Leuy plays round 1 AND can overcome lack of preseason training

Dangermouse is tagged more and can overcome it (unlike finals)

Murphy is tagged an can over come it (NAB cup)

Bartel can overcome his decline returns

Zorko can play all year like the NAB GF, unlike NAB cup preseason where he was a little more patchy on returns

Cotchin can overcome the tag - unlike reports over the weekend