Analysis Premium Rookies

[Impromptu]

The main objective of SuperCoach is to obviously get as many points as you can, which in general is achieved by getting the best SuperCoach premiums as fast as you can. The initial SuperCoach salary cap usually allows from 10 to 15 premiums per team, which will vary depending on whether you adopt the Guns and Rookies or Mid-Pricer approach.

To improve your team and gradually increase the number of premiums in your team, you need to generate cash through the selling (ie trading out) and buying (ie trading in) rookies. However, with so many rookies and types of rookies it can be difficult picking the right ones.

This article examines the viability of picking high draft SuperCoach Rookies (Premium Rookies) against the standard SuperCoach Rookies, noting the former is more expensive than the latter rookies

For the purpose of this article, I've examined the top 15 draft midfield rookies against the standard midfield rookies, however note that the same principles will apply to other positions. Furthermore, only a handful of standard SuperCoach rookies are used in this article.

I need to highlight that this article is to analyse the variety of rookies from a Price Strategy point of view rather than the pre-season performance of Rookies, per se. Pre-season performances of rookies will be looked at in the last week.

The following table lists a number of the top 15 draft midfield rookies against some standard rookies.
[TABLE="width: 700"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Draft
[/TD]
[TD]Bye
[/TD]
[TD]Team
[/TD]
[TD]Name
[/TD]
[TD]Value
[/TD]
[TD]B/E
[/TD]
[TD]U/18
[/TD]
[TD]Main Comp
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1
[/TD]
[TD]13
[/TD]
[TD]GWS
[/TD]
[TD]Lachie Whitfield
[/TD]
[TD]$199,500
[/TD]
[TD]37
[/TD]
[TD]141
[/TD]
[TD]134
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2
[/TD]
[TD]13
[/TD]
[TD]GWS
[/TD]
[TD]Jonathan O'Rourke
[/TD]
[TD]$194,500
[/TD]
[TD]36
[/TD]
[TD]107
[/TD]
[TD]108
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4
[/TD]
[TD]12
[/TD]
[TD]MEL
[/TD]
[TD]Jimmy Toumpas
[/TD]
[TD]$184,500
[/TD]
[TD]34
[/TD]
[TD]111
[/TD]
[TD]68*
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6
[/TD]
[TD]11
[/TD]
[TD]WBD
[/TD]
[TD]Jackson Macrae
[/TD]
[TD]$174,500
[/TD]
[TD]32
[/TD]
[TD]117
[/TD]
[TD]117
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7
[/TD]
[TD]11
[/TD]
[TD]PTA
[/TD]
[TD]Oliver Wines
[/TD]
[TD]$169,500
[/TD]
[TD]31
[/TD]
[TD]137
[/TD]
[TD]145
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]11
[/TD]
[TD]BRL
[/TD]
[TD]Sam Mayes [FWD]
[/TD]
[TD]$164,500
[/TD]
[TD]30
[/TD]
[TD]101
[/TD]
[TD]61*
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]11
[/TD]
[TD]RIC
[/TD]
[TD]Nick Vlastuin [MID]
[/TD]
[TD]$159,500
[/TD]
[TD]29
[/TD]
[TD]105
[/TD]
[TD]NA
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11
[/TD]
[TD]13
[/TD]
[TD]CAR
[/TD]
[TD]Troy Menzel [FWD]
[/TD]
[TD]$149,500
[/TD]
[TD]28
[/TD]
[TD]151
[/TD]
[TD]59*
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13
[/TD]
[TD]13
[/TD]
[TD]GCS
[/TD]
[TD]Jesse Lonergan
[/TD]
[TD]$139,500
[/TD]
[TD]26
[/TD]
[TD]127
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]*
[/TD]
[TD]13
[/TD]
[TD]ADE
[/TD]
[TD]Brad Crouch
[/TD]
[TD]$115,900
[/TD]
[TD]21
[/TD]
[TD]77
[/TD]
[TD]68*
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]*
[/TD]
[TD]13
[/TD]
[TD]GCS
[/TD]
[TD]Jaeger O'Meara
[/TD]
[TD]$115,900
[/TD]
[TD]21
[/TD]
[TD]116
[/TD]
[TD]86
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]21
[/TD]
[TD]11
[/TD]
[TD]WBD
[/TD]
[TD]Nathan Hrovat
[/TD]
[TD]$114,500
[/TD]
[TD]21
[/TD]
[TD]117
[/TD]
[TD]121
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]26
[/TD]
[TD]12
[/TD]
[TD]MEL
[/TD]
[TD]Jack Viney
[/TD]
[TD]$109,500
[/TD]
[TD]20
[/TD]
[TD]91
[/TD]
[TD]83
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]M
[/TD]
[TD]12
[/TD]
[TD]MEL
[/TD]
[TD]Matt Jones
[/TD]
[TD]$109,500
[/TD]
[TD]20
[/TD]
[TD]25YO
[/TD]
[TD]20P
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]M
[/TD]
[TD]13
[/TD]
[TD]ESS
[/TD]
[TD]Nicholas Kommer
[/TD]
[TD]$109,500
[/TD]
[TD]20
[/TD]
[TD]22YO
[/TD]
[TD]19P
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Main Comp - * indiates AFL Dream Score not SuperCoach Scores (as not available)

The objectives of rookies (in categorical order) are to:

1. Generate Cash
2. Score Points

Now you may ask the question, doesn't 'Generating Cash' and 'Scoring Points' come hand-in-hand? Well the answer is Yes and No. For me, it depends on the starting price of the player and more importantly finding a Value Priced Player.

You may recall the article Loose Change where I discussed Value Priced Players? While not exactly the same, the same concept of Value applies.

When we compare premiums say, Swan v Dal Santo and Waters v Newman we look at value. Do we think Dal Santo can negate, ie average the same as Swan, but with the benefit of saving an extra $100K or so? We can apply the same or similar concept of Value to Rookies, but we just need to make some adjustments.

The adjustment and comparisons when looking at Value for Rookies compared to Premiums are:

1. Premiums have no games security issues, but Rookies do
2. Underperforming Rookies are like to get traded out before underperforming Premiums
3. Rookies need to generate Cash, whereas Premiums need to generate points (and to a lesser extent Cash)

Therefore, when deciding on whether you want premium rookies or a standard rookie, you need to look at your objective. Is it to:

1. Generate Cash
2. Job Security
3. Points

As you all will know the price of all player fluctuates depending on a player's last three games and on the basis of a rolling-average, which will either increase or decrease the price of a player. However, this really depends on the player's breakeven and the player breakeven depends on a player's price at any given time; the same principles apply to Rookies.

If you look at the above table, you can see (for example) the following:

• Lachie Whitfield is priced at $199,500 and breakeven of 37
• Nick Vlastuin priced at $159,500 and breakeven of 29
• Brad Crouch priced at $115,900 and breakeven of 21
• Jack Viney priced at $109,500 and breakeven of 20

Now a question, which coincidentally some people have asked me was what I thought of Whitfield. Looking at his pre-AFL history he has an amazing record 141 and 134; Ablett-type Junior Football statistics! However, is Whitfield worth it from a cash generating point of view?

From a public opinion point of view, it may well possibly worth it as Whitfield is in theory the best player in the competition, yes I know there are different views due to the Father-and-Son rules and Mini Draft etc. However, in theory Whitfield is the best rookie player based on the draft. However, from a SuperCoach point of view, do I think Whitfield is worth it? Probably No.

Now I won't get into detail and work out the exact numbers, but from a high level calculation, Whitfield (B/E 37) needs to average 17 more than Viney (B/E 20) to be par. You need to ask yourself the question, do you think Whitfield will average 17 more than Viney? If so, then Whitfield should be considered and if not then No. Don't think that if Whitfield averages 80 and Viney 65 that choosing Whitfield is better. I reiterate, I'm not going through the expected price changes or anything, but on a high-level calculation, Viney is better.

What you get from Whitfield is perceived or presumed job security and perceived or presumed scoring security as all things being equal Whitfield should score more, especially if you look at his pre-AFL career. For me the best cash cow or rookies doesn't necessary need to play 15 games as all you need is a rookie who plays 6 consecutive to get you to the magical $300K. Naturally, there are cash cows who get to $400K, but there are also cash cows who peak at $200K, therefore, I use the mid-point, namely $300K as the benchmark for a rookie. However, if you have a player at $199K, the most you can make from this cash cow is $100K.

Think like this, Whitfield reaching $300K is the same as Viney reaching $200K in terms of generating cash and if $300K is the notional peak rookie price (excluding exceptions) then it is clearly better to pick Viney.

Note that Whitfield and Viney are simply examples, and you could use Wines, Lonergan and Vlastuin and compare them with Crouch, O'Meara, Matt Jones etc.

For me, I generally have a No High Draft Rookie or No Premium Rookie policy.

As with most rules, there are exceptions such as:

• Loading up on midfield rookies where you need the security of a Premium Rookie (as demonstrated in my 2010 SuperCoach team; refer to: 8 Rookie Midfield)
• Non-midfield Premum Rookies

With most of my rookies I hope they get to $300K in price, and thus every $10K difference in the starting price makes a difference. Remember I'm not saying Viney is better than Whitfield or vice-versa, just saying unless you are looking for security , Viney is better in Value or more precisely Cash Generating purposes.

While Vlastuin is priced at 29 and a Premium Rookie, he has the benefit of being categorised as a dual position player and in reality a Defender and therefore meets the 2nd exception. Oliver Wines is the interesting one at $169,500 (B/E 31). At that price, boy it's difficult to have you in your team, but if you have a 4 premium midfield then it's difficult to leave him out, noting my view is he is behind Kane Mitchell from a SuperCoach point of view.

For the record, I don't intend on having any these high draft midfield rookies, with possibly the exception of Vlastuin. Jimmy Toumpas looks decent, but again I just can't justify a rookie priced so high.

Therefore, remember the objective of having Rookies is to Generate Cash and thus NO Premium Rookies, unless there are exceptions!

 

[OzRulesFootball]

Great article. I might go one of these premium rookies but until I see the round one teams there are too many unknowns to lock any in. I've got my idea of the most likely rookies I'll take but once round one is underway I might adjust it up to 4 or 5 different players in that week alone. I find I'm getting much more excited that it is getting close to the time to actually pick a team. I got tired of speculating on my team within myself months ago...lol.. as can change so many times.. just been watching the pre-season to hone in the most likely candidates for my team. I think I entered my team in Supercoach around Feb 1 and changed it once since....

 

[mpollock]

I am unlikely to start any ... there is plenty of value rookies around ... so spend the money elsewhere i think ..

 

[supergirl]

Good read.

I particularly like the concept of treating them as you would a 'value priced player'. I re-read the Loose Change article again today and it was fresh in my mind. The extra 20-60k could also mean you can fit in say a Buddy Franklin or another player you really like but are a tad short and having one of those players plus a 'regular priced' rookie (that will likely score the same amount give or take 5-10 points) would far outweigh picking a runner up player in the food chain coupled with a first round pick rookie. And as mpollock states (below)

there is plenty of value rookies around

makes it that much easier to go with a lower priced rookie.

 

[Jimace The Grimace]

Great article - As you said, I too think think that if you are going with 3-4 midfield premiums having one, maybe two of Ollie Wines/Brad Hill/Whitfield/Stevens type is a must AND a DPP (preferably a defence DPP rookie like Goodes). And then that leaves 4 spots for O'Meara, Crouch, Viney and Mitchell

 

[johno686]

Looking at my team at the moment i have no premium rookies. But have 14 keepers and 1 mid price player. Want to get Vlastuin into my side but.

 

[Goodie's Guns]

Great article - As you said, I too think think that if you are going with 3-4 midfield premiums having one, maybe two of Ollie Wines/Brad Hill/Whitfield/Stevens type is a must AND a DPP (preferably a defence DPP rookie like Goodes). And then that leaves 4 spots for O'Meara, Crouch, Viney and Mitchell

Sort of what I am doing at the moment, I have Oliver Wines as my premium rookie (The first premium rookie I have ever selected in SC) with the other spots currently being filled with the cheaper rookies and Neade atm who is sort of a floating donut. I have had some thoughts across the last two days to improve my side so once I get a chance I will be doing some research and making some changes to my side this arvo, mainly in regard to my DEF and FOR structures and the rookie I will be selecting.

Again nice article Jay.

 

[30BucketsofRo]

Would Koby Stevens be considered as a premium rookie?

 

[Jimace The Grimace]

Would Koby Stevens be considered as a premium rookie?

Price wise, you'd have to say he is. But the added benefit of being in the system for longer + added JS at the Dogs = lock for me.

Can I also just point out, last year, I went out on a limb and picked Toby Greene from the get go (premium rookie), scored like a house on fire and the rest was history. I'd say he could well have been the reason I won my mates league so sometimes the premium rookie can reign supreme.

 

[30BucketsofRo]

Price wise, you'd have to say he is. But the added benefit of being in the system for longer + added JS at the Dogs = lock for me.

Can I also just point out, last year, I went out on a limb and picked Toby Greene from the get go (premium rookie), scored like a house on fire and the rest was history. I'd say he could well have been the reason I won my mates league so sometimes the premium rookie can reign supreme.

Thanks Jim.
That is so true - the key, like any other rookie, mid-pricer or premium, is to nail them. That's the difficult bit.

 

[Jimace The Grimace]

Thanks Jim.
That is so true - the key, like any other rookie, mid-pricer or premium, is to nail them. That's the difficult bit.

yeah you're right - it's a bit hit and miss but you have 2 matches to fix things before prices change and before you are left behind

 

[hammo42]

The main objective of SuperCoach is to obviously get as many points as you can, which in general is achieved by getting the best SuperCoach premiums as fast as you can.

One factor to also consider is the rate at which the premium rookie scores compared to the standard rookies. Using the example above, Whitfield may reach $400K in value quicker than Viney reaches $300K, in which case Whitfield is ripe for the picking a round or two earlier, helping you trade your Premiums in earlier.

How much quicker the premium rookie reaches trade value compared to a standard rookie will depend on many factors including the draw, job security and midfield opportunities. Given Port's early draw and his NAB Cup performances, Ollie Wines ticks this criteria for me - I'm expecting him to be one of my first rookies downgraded.

 

[Blaze]

I have to agree with Jim as I am setting up a 4 premium midfield this year. The key to the 4 prem approach will be to pick 1-2 of those T Greene type rookies that won't be subbed and therefore score big and go to 400k. If one of the picks fails then cash isn't an issue when trading to the right rookie at R3.

Those that go cheap on the rookies could miss the boat on the premium rookie that is flying if they can't afford the trade before the price rise.

 

[Jimace The Grimace]

I have to agree with Jim as I am setting up a 4 premium midfield this year. The key to the 4 prem approach will be to pick 1-2 of those T Greene type rookies that won't be subbed and therefore score big and go to 400k. If one of the picks fails then cash isn't an issue when trading to the right rookie at R3.

Those that go cheap on the rookies could miss the boat on the premium rookie that is flying if they can't afford the trade before the price rise.

Yeah, the people that go all tight arse on rookies and with little much left in the kitty for Round 1 will struggle to pick up the on fire rooks (who may be a tad more expensive) and wont be able to get him in.

 

[Grant]

In a normal draft O'Meara, Crouch and Viney would have been top 10, hence I will be picking 3 premium midfield rookies at reduced price.

Given Kane Mitchell emulated Priddis in the Sandover he'll probably be my 4th. I watched the WAFL Grand Final replay on ABC2 last season for SC purposes and he showed enough to suggest he can start the season well. Koby Stevens played in that match too and impressed me with the quality of his disposal. I could see him having a great season but I don't have him yet.

 

[Nk29]

Have Wines only atm. Had Lonergan until a couple of days ago when I had to downgrade him to free up cash, but if I can find an extra 10k he'll be replacing K.Mitchell.

 

[frostylane]

Have never picked a premium rookie before this year. But this year I am still sorting out my starting premium mids, if I have 4 premiums I will most likely pick up Stevens or Wines but if I go with my 5 premiums or 4 and a mid Kane Mitchell will be the highest.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

All good points Jay. Last years higher priced rookie at best gave you a breakeven result vs cheaper players or were less cash generative.

However, I do see some differences this year. Extra two mid positions and lack of rookies elsewhere.

I am looking either a 4/1/5 or 4/6 combo for mid. To me, I am rating whitfield not against my first picked midfield rookie but against my last (ie my 5 or 6th rookie). Therefore its Whitfield vs say a Matt Jones or a rookie in the forward line. By picking Whitfield in the mid and a premium in the forward line, I consider it better than a premium in the mid and a rookie in the forward line.

Also flexibility in week 3 to downgrade to a $100k rookie who is smashing it where as its hard to upgrade form a $100k rookie to a $200k rookie unless sitting on spare cash.

My concern of the Whit is whether he plays every 2nd week due to his smaller frame. Hence he ranks behind other premium rookies such as Wines for me.

By the way, thanks for all the analysis on this site from both yourself and others. Off the charts for quality.

 

[Prochard]

I've got this feeling that wines will average 10-15 higher than most rookies. I can see him averaging 80-85 in the 12-18 games he play. His contested to uncontested touch ratio is like 3:1 or 2.5:1 with like 65% efficiency... Definately prefer him over, lets say, matt jones and nathan hrovat?

 

[AngryAnt]

Got Wines and Stevens at the moment, going with a 4-0-6 so want the highest scoring available rookies on the park which is what I see with Wines and Stevens. Not locked in yet with those two but like the two of them more than the rest available for starting purposes.