Opinion Rate My AFL SuperCoach Team

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Herbie, I think your enthusiasm is commendable and your unique approach is refreshing.

And, like with any fantasy competition, I also understand an attachment to a theme (e.g. pro mid-pricers, anti GnR, or lack of rookies) – and that other people’s opinions are merely hurdles disguised as ‘conventional wisdom’. We’re painting a canvas here, and it’s easy to fall in love with certain players or ideas.

However certain wisdom is convention for a reason. OnTopBar running half the number of usual cash-generating rookies definitely frees the team up for a number of list-clogging mid-pricers – while the decision to run without any of those pesky premiums like Brodie Grundy, Jack Macrae, Max Gawn, Patrick Cripps or Patrick Dangerfield is certainly an interesting approach.

I haven’t looked for the post, but I remember giving similar advice to Ironhawk(?) last year who wanted to run with the full mid-pricer team. You’d be better off buying a lotto ticket.

At the end of the day, I’m only trying to assist, and people can take comments on board, or (more likely) tell me where to shove it. But the last thing anyone wants to see, is you (or anyone) saying “Well that didn’t work out, can start early prep for next year” by round 6.
You're starting as late as round 6? :eek:
 
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Thoughts before things get more interesting. Most spots still up in the air.
View attachment 15696
now someone with your record should know a lot better ?

midpricers can't and doesn't work , pure GnR all the way ?

Blakely is the interesting one , wouldn't though he was the most durable going around

good luck
 
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Not at all boyo, those changes could be on the cards over the first 6 rounds or so and those rookie changes will be the ones that have shown themselves rather than me guessing at the start of the year who they could be.. Thanks for the perspective.
No problem at all , enjoy how you approach things and are prepared to look at things differently.

Didn't you say you were close to Top 1000 in your first season last year ? maybe we should be paying more attention to your ideas and asking you for advice ?
 
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No problem at all , enjoy how you approach things and are prepared to look at things differently.

Didn't you say you were close to Top 1000 in your first season last year ? maybe we should be paying more attention to your ideas and asking you for advice ?
Hehe, no way.

But one of the things that got me back up after being ranked around 25k after round 2-3 was swapping McEvoy out for RO'B at round 5. I was then able to use that cash to fund 3 early upgrades (with a mind to the byes) so my team was sorted going into the byes and I could concentrate on upgrading to those players that had come off their byes. Needless to say I chose a couple that weren't the best as in Sloane and Robbie Gray and held Whitfield over all of the byes. I still managed to average over 2k/round over the byes and shot up the rankings. I had planned to get Gawn in for RO'B but with all of the other stuff was never able to and had to rely on Lycett as cover. That backfired when both were dropped (for whatever stupid reason) add Gawn pulling a ridiculous score in round 23 (with most having him C/VC) saw me drop over 500 places in the last round to end up around 1300.

One of the biggest lessons I took out of the year was to not start so slow, after falling behind 1000 or so points after 6 rounds, I never really had the opportunity of catching the leaders so I was always amongst the 'also rans' and just playing for the consolation of being in the top 'whatever'.

I don't play any games to be amongst the 'also rans' I play to win and I'll use whatever means that are at my disposal to reach that goal. So people like yourself that offer insights to what I might do are gold, not just for me but the broader community. It's probably one of the best things about this site, there's so many varying opinions that I enjoy taking notice of. The statistical advice here for me is of the utmost importance, so I like to soak it all up like a sponge (likened to my beer consumption)

I have taken a lot of notice about what Selby (Fantasy) says about how he goes about trading (admittedly he gets 47 trades) but the fella won Fantasy 2 years in a row. One win, yeah ya have a listen, but two wins in a row shows how much ahead of the pack he was. He always bemoaned the fact that he never nailed the midpricers he chose, but I look at the other side of the coin and say that those 'failed' midpricers gave him the opportunity of picking the right players at the right time, both rookies and premos. His analysis and spreadsheets are super comprehensive down to every player in the comp. I'll never have the time to construct that, but the gurus here that do that stuff here are worth their weight in gold for a nuffy like me.

I'm rambling now, so it's time for me to shut my gob and listen.
 

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Hehe, no way.

But one of the things that got me back up after being ranked around 25k after round 2-3 was swapping McEvoy out for RO'B at round 5. I was then able to use that cash to fund 3 early upgrades (with a mind to the byes) so my team was sorted going into the byes and I could concentrate on upgrading to those players that had come off their byes. Needless to say I chose a couple that weren't the best as in Sloane and Robbie Gray and held Whitfield over all of the byes. I still managed to average over 2k/round over the byes and shot up the rankings. I had planned to get Gawn in for RO'B but with all of the other stuff was never able to and had to rely on Lycett as cover. That backfired when both were dropped (for whatever stupid reason) add Gawn pulling a ridiculous score in round 23 (with most having him C/VC) saw me drop over 500 places in the last round to end up around 1300.

One of the biggest lessons I took out of the year was to not start so slow, after falling behind 1000 or so points after 6 rounds, I never really had the opportunity of catching the leaders so I was always amongst the 'also rans' and just playing for the consolation of being in the top 'whatever'.

I don't play any games to be amongst the 'also rans' I play to win and I'll use whatever means that are at my disposal to reach that goal. So people like yourself that offer insights to what I might do are gold, not just for me but the broader community. It's probably one of the best things about this site, there's so many varying opinions that I enjoy taking notice of. The statistical advice here for me is of the utmost importance, so I like to soak it all up like a sponge (likened to my beer consumption)

I have taken a lot of notice about what Selby (Fantasy) says about how he goes about trading (admittedly he gets 47 trades) but the fella won Fantasy 2 years in a row. One win, yeah ya have a listen, but two wins in a row shows how much ahead of the pack he was. He always bemoaned the fact that he never nailed the midpricers he chose, but I look at the other side of the coin and say that those 'failed' midpricers gave him the opportunity of picking the right players at the right time, both rookies and premos. His analysis and spreadsheets are super comprehensive down to every player in the comp. I'll never have the time to construct that, but the gurus here that do that stuff here are worth their weight in gold for a nuffy like me.

I'm rambling now, so it's time for me to shut my gob and listen.
Interesting point but it is definitely true.

It’s the same with an injured player, it presents an opportunity to potentially grab someone else at the right time.

I think I grabbed Marshall (340k on the bubble) for Fyfe last year (when concussed), did RGray (injured) back to Fyfe and also Rocky (after missing through the byes) to Treloar (averaged 120+ after I got him).
 
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1582121839576.png

This is my latest side. I think I have just squeezed in enough rookie spend (Although Marsh etc etc), whilst being able to pick all the premiums I want on every line. My only real question is over the selection of Heeney at F3 (I think he's the third best forward, but is it worth gambling on potential value, especially as he might start a little slowly.
 
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Interesting point but it is definitely true.

It’s the same with an injured player, it presents an opportunity to potentially grab someone else at the right time.

I think I grabbed Marshall (340k on the bubble) for Fyfe last year (when concussed), did RGray (injured) back to Fyfe and also Rocky (after missing through the byes) to Treloar (averaged 120+ after I got him).
Exactly!

So maybe extrapolate that a bit further and see what options open up?

I keep hearing that G & R's are the sole way to go, but is it really? Does that strategy just keep you 'in the pack' rather than giving you an edge over everyone else? What does you give that edge over everyone else? All I see is the pack mentality.
 
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Like it mate.

One question, any reason for no Whitfield?
No big reason. Think he's a good pick. He would be next. Just really like the value on offer for forwards so can't fit him in at moment. I'm half expecting that one of steven/smith shows themselves to be unpickable in the next few weeks, in which case I would probably find a way to get them up to Whitfield, but for now they stay.
 
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For me Steven is going to be a list clogger first half of the season, so I'd look to make a few rookie adjustments and get in Wingard with that extra cash...
Yeah I don't mind wingard and am keen to see how he looks. Perhaps I just have a soft spot for Steven but even with a bit of mid time early I think he can become a very successful pick. Would need to see him in marsh series to follow through on that though.
 

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Yeah I don't mind wingard and am keen to see how he looks. Perhaps I just have a soft spot for Steven but even with a bit of mid time early I think he can become a very successful pick. Would need to see him in marsh series to follow through on that though.
Yeah that’s a fair call. I’ve had Steven in and out of my team and he will be difficult to overlook if we see him in the Marsh Series and he lines up round 1.

For now I have Roberton instead. As a Saints man, what are your thoughts on him this season?
 
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now someone with your record should know a lot better ?

midpricers can't and doesn't work , pure GnR all the way ?

Blakely is the interesting one , wouldn't though he was the most durable going around

good luck
Thanks Herbie. I have been following these midpricer conversations here and in Rowsus's thread with interest and tried to weigh in a couple of times but was unable to articulate my thoughts in any helpful way. I have always been a bit more pro midpricers than some here but never strayed as far from the holy tree as others. I do think people are often too risk averse. And that they think they are avoiding risk by picking expensive players when often that comes with a different but equally harmful downside risk.

In my opinion (IMHFO) the best argument against midpricers is that they take away the spots for rookies, who are the best and most important picks. And it's just so much easier to pick a successful rookie.

I also think the term 'midpricer' can be useful short-hand to talk about this stuff but isn't that helpful when building a side. All that matters is why you are picking a player - to make money or become a keeper. Jack Steven and Brayden Sier are both 'midpricers' but completely different picks and useful for different reasons.
 
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Yeah that’s a fair call. I’ve had Steven in and out of my team and he will be difficult to overlook if we see him in the Marsh Series and he lines up round 1.

For now I have Roberton instead. As a Saints man, what are your thoughts on him this season?
I admit I'm a bit uneasy on Roberton. I am wary of all these DEFs who score well in one particular role but not in others. Looking forward to seeing how he looks and how they want to use him. If he just guns it in Marsh then obviously he's an easy pick. Otherwise I will probably just have him on standby in case I can't fill up with cheaper rookies.
 
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Thanks Herbie. I have been following these midpricer conversations here and in Rowsus's thread with interest and tried to weigh in a couple of times but was unable to articulate my thoughts in any helpful way. I have always been a bit more pro midpricers than some here but never strayed as far from the holy tree as others. I do think people are often too risk averse. And that they think they are avoiding risk by picking expensive players when often that comes with a different but equally harmful downside risk.

In my opinion (IMHFO) the best argument against midpricers is that they take away the spots for rookies, who are the best and most important picks. And it's just so much easier to pick a successful rookie.

I also think the term 'midpricer' can be useful short-hand to talk about this stuff but isn't that helpful when building a side. All that matters is why you are picking a player - to make money or become a keeper. Jack Steven and Brayden Sier are both 'midpricers' but completely different picks and useful for different reasons.
It’s obviously semantics but I don’t really with that – if anything Sier is more of an expensive rookie. The reason I say that, is that in order to make a justifiable amount of $$ to start him, Steven would be averaging 90-95, i.e. forward keeper level, so you’d keep him (theoretically, given his pedigree as a high scorer). Whereas if Sier goes at 90-95 and reaches $400 - $450k, you’re binning him as soon as the opportunity presents itself to a discounted Mid premium. Hence the grey area on the guys priced $300k - $400k

For what it’s worth, Steven has been in and out for me. I have a bad habit as a coach of being swayed by good (or bad) experiences of owning players previously. I had Steven in 2015(?) as mid, when he was priced at around 80 – and traded him out before his bye when he was averaging over 110. So that history says to me he’s an absolute no brainer as a forward eligible player at a team where the mids are disappearing by the week. That being said, I’ve been scared by the injuries and his description of the role – and he’s currently out. He might come back in, but I think D Smith is the better option.
 
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For me Steven is going to be a list clogger first half of the season, so I'd look to make a few rookie adjustments and get in Wingard with that extra cash...
I admit I'm a bit uneasy on Roberton. I am wary of all these DEFs who score well in one particular role but not in others. Looking forward to seeing how he looks and how they want to use him. If he just guns it in Marsh then obviously he's an easy pick. Otherwise I will probably just have him on standby in case I can't fill up with cheaper rookies.
I feel the same with regards to both Steven and Roberton. I'd like to line up without either of them but currently I have both in the team. Sounds like Roberton isn't playing the first Marsh game, this sits a little uneasy with me given how much footy he has missed. He's had a couple of seasons in the 90's, one as far back as 2015 so do we expect him to line up in a similar role to what he was playing then? The game has changed no doubt also but his 92 in 2017 is a positive.

Will be one to watch throughout the Marsh, let's hope he does get a few games.
 
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View attachment 15698

This is my latest side. I think I have just squeezed in enough rookie spend (Although Marsh etc etc), whilst being able to pick all the premiums I want on every line. My only real question is over the selection of Heeney at F3 (I think he's the third best forward, but is it worth gambling on potential value, especially as he might start a little slowly.
I think there's every chance that Dev. Smith takes up where he left off in 2018, all reports suggest he's fit and back in the midfield and you would assume also back to tackling beast he was. He had the highest tackle count in 2018. In 2019 he was battling with his knee problem and spent most games Fwd, finishing the year after round 7. His price is reduced because of that lower average and missed games. the Marsh series might give a clearer insight as to his role, but for me he was 1st picked. Heeney will more than likely be a top 6 Fwd but I can't see his price going up by much at all, with a distinct possibility that it will drop at least until Buddy gets match fit, so He's therefore a prime upgrade target. JMO and I could be completely wrong ( I have been before )
 
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I think it was discussed a bit yesterday but geez teams look better with only 4 mid premiums.

It feels a lot better pushing Doc to D4 but I’m a little bit worried about upgrading 4 mids as we could have potentially 6+ mids going at 120+ this season
Yeah this is risky and not something I'm comfortable with. houston and Dawson are not the sort of picks I lean towards in starting squads and I'm not overly comfortable leaving Macrae out. There could be 14 keepers here but bottom end keepers for each line ecept for maybe Gawn and Grundy.
 
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