Opinion Rate My AFL SuperCoach Team
- Thread starter Ironhawk
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It looks fine presuming the rookies "show up" but I'd probably have a backup side in case the rookies don't "show up". Two basement def and fwd rookies on field seems like a risky play. Traditionally fwd rookies are poor scorers so usually a two fwd rookie structure doesn't work. If Brander gets the right role, he could be a good scorer though but you may need Brander in defence if the def rookies don't show. Doubt Starcevich, Butts or McLennan plays R1. Gould is a chance but that is all.
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Cheers for the feedback bomber, the defence and forward line are both a work in progress pending rookies, I’m just hoping that a few show up over the next two weeks.
I have backup sides in mind with both Roberton and/or Ash in the backline with Hill potentially at F5 or staying in the backline.
I’ve only got one basement priced player on field and I’m hoping he’ll be able to score alright, Hill can also swing forward if the back line rookies look okay, or Brander can slot in.
As far as I’m aware Rankine is more like Rozzee as a player and wins the ball up the ground and is not just a small forward. The concern with him is around injury and being at GC. I still reckon he can be a decent on field rookie at F5 or F6 and then you just need one more player, that can be Hill or Budarick.
Any thoughts on the premo’s?
I have backup sides in mind with both Roberton and/or Ash in the backline with Hill potentially at F5 or staying in the backline.
I’ve only got one basement priced player on field and I’m hoping he’ll be able to score alright, Hill can also swing forward if the back line rookies look okay, or Brander can slot in.
As far as I’m aware Rankine is more like Rozzee as a player and wins the ball up the ground and is not just a small forward. The concern with him is around injury and being at GC. I still reckon he can be a decent on field rookie at F5 or F6 and then you just need one more player, that can be Hill or Budarick.
Any thoughts on the premo’s?
I prefer Macrae/Dusty to Dunkley/Whitfield. Both Macrae/Dusty have more proven scoring histories relative to their prices.
Not so sure on Greenwood, I'm not sure how much you can take out of that Suns v Cats Marsh game. I think GC won't win a game by such a margin during the HA season so Greenwood's Marsh performance may just be a bit of a tease.
Not so sure on Greenwood, I'm not sure how much you can take out of that Suns v Cats Marsh game. I think GC won't win a game by such a margin during the HA season so Greenwood's Marsh performance may just be a bit of a tease.
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Fair enough on Macrae/Dusty, I just think Whitfield has such a big ceiling that I can’t afford to not start him, it’s a defensive move as much as anything else. If he’s not tagged early 150+ scores could happen a few times. Dusty is safe but I don’t think he can hurt me too much. Dunkley is definitely not a proven scorer but an average of 128 in 16 games after a permanent move to the mids also shows some ceiling and I think he’s capable of out averaging Macrae.
On Greenwood I’m not taking much from last weeks game, although it’s a good sign.
I’m thinking that instead of the 52% time spent in the midfield at Adelaide in 2019 he spends another 25% of time in the midfield at GC this year. If he scores .4 more points more per minute in the midfield than he does forward (Danger scores .52 points more) he would have scored 8.5 points extra this year with 25% more time in the midfield based on the minutes he played. Then if his time on ground goes up by 4% that’s an extra 5 points as well. After those calculations he’s averaging 98 based on the way he played last year just with a role change and slightly more time on ground. I then deducted 5 points for him being at GC and estimated he’d average 93 if he plays like he did last year and gets to play midfield. This is all highly hypothetical but it’s one way to estimate how a role change will impact a player.
On Greenwood I’m not taking much from last weeks game, although it’s a good sign.
I’m thinking that instead of the 52% time spent in the midfield at Adelaide in 2019 he spends another 25% of time in the midfield at GC this year. If he scores .4 more points more per minute in the midfield than he does forward (Danger scores .52 points more) he would have scored 8.5 points extra this year with 25% more time in the midfield based on the minutes he played. Then if his time on ground goes up by 4% that’s an extra 5 points as well. After those calculations he’s averaging 98 based on the way he played last year just with a role change and slightly more time on ground. I then deducted 5 points for him being at GC and estimated he’d average 93 if he plays like he did last year and gets to play midfield. This is all highly hypothetical but it’s one way to estimate how a role change will impact a player.
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Is that based off last season's numbers?
IIRC Greenwood was MID only in 2019 so in 2018, where he went 86 SC from 22 games at 75% TOG, he would've spent <35% in the forward line so would've mainly played midfield. Say he improves his TOG to 80% from 2018 numbers, still only pushes low 90s. Plus he plays for GC where outside of Ablett, players averaging above 95 are rare. In the last three seasons at GC, only Witts and Ablett have had averages more than 95. Not sure he has the upside I would want for a 460k pick, seems at best to be low 90s and highly unlikely to push 100. You can get him at 450k odd all year with that low 90s sort of average.
Personally, would rather Jack Steven at 360k who has a more proven scoring history and his injury risk is priced into his lower starting price.
On Whitfield/Dusty, I'd have the opposite view. Dusty has gone 120 in a season before. Averaged 115 from his last 8 games of 2019 (inc finals). Dusty has done 150+ scores before as well so has the ceiling to hurt. Is cheaper so that helps too.
Dunkley did 128 from last 16 but Macrae has done ~125 over the last two seasons and probably would've done more if he wasn't taken out of the CBs briefly in 2019.
IIRC Greenwood was MID only in 2019 so in 2018, where he went 86 SC from 22 games at 75% TOG, he would've spent <35% in the forward line so would've mainly played midfield. Say he improves his TOG to 80% from 2018 numbers, still only pushes low 90s. Plus he plays for GC where outside of Ablett, players averaging above 95 are rare. In the last three seasons at GC, only Witts and Ablett have had averages more than 95. Not sure he has the upside I would want for a 460k pick, seems at best to be low 90s and highly unlikely to push 100. You can get him at 450k odd all year with that low 90s sort of average.
Personally, would rather Jack Steven at 360k who has a more proven scoring history and his injury risk is priced into his lower starting price.
On Whitfield/Dusty, I'd have the opposite view. Dusty has gone 120 in a season before. Averaged 115 from his last 8 games of 2019 (inc finals). Dusty has done 150+ scores before as well so has the ceiling to hurt. Is cheaper so that helps too.
Dunkley did 128 from last 16 but Macrae has done ~125 over the last two seasons and probably would've done more if he wasn't taken out of the CBs briefly in 2019.
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I also think that you need to consider a cutoff price ... at what point do you let them go or are prepared to jump on early ...
- Last year I think Boak, Lycett, Marshall, Daniels, ROB were worthy jump on early options in the FWD line...
- But where did the funds come from .... for me I think it was Dunks, Libba, and someone else (held Milera so it wasn't him) and a rookie failure ... possibly Cousins or Collins
I grabbed a fair few of them but it came at the cost of Hurn, Houli etc in DEF ....
- Last year I think Boak, Lycett, Marshall, Daniels, ROB were worthy jump on early options in the FWD line...
- But where did the funds come from .... for me I think it was Dunks, Libba, and someone else (held Milera so it wasn't him) and a rookie failure ... possibly Cousins or Collins
I grabbed a fair few of them but it came at the cost of Hurn, Houli etc in DEF ....
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Yeah that's based on last years numbers. There's an article that says he played 52% midfield in 2019 and his time on ground was 72% in 2019. Projecting that into 75% midfield and 76% time on ground and he should be averaging high 90's at the Suns, but you need to take into account that he's at the Suns and they score a bit worse. I'm thinking his ceiling is 100 but he should score at least low 90's, which I'll take given that he's got a better bye than Tom Lynch, but I'm still considering Lynch as well. I still see some value in him, it's not dramatic though.
Steven isn't really a starting option is he given his injury, fitness and other issues?
Steven isn't really a starting option is he given his injury, fitness and other issues?
I'm not sure why he's not?
He's expected to play Marsh 2 from what I've read. May start a bit more in the forward line but the coach suggested he would eventually play inside mid. May need to be a bit more patient with him but there could be some reward once he gets that change (bit like Dunkley last season). Consistently copped tags during his time at the Saints which he won't at the Cats. Probably has a floor of 85 with an upside of 100.
He's expected to play Marsh 2 from what I've read. May start a bit more in the forward line but the coach suggested he would eventually play inside mid. May need to be a bit more patient with him but there could be some reward once he gets that change (bit like Dunkley last season). Consistently copped tags during his time at the Saints which he won't at the Cats. Probably has a floor of 85 with an upside of 100.
I let Boak go all year. Once he got up to 550k+, it wasn't worth jumping on so I targetted other guys. Luckily the guys I got in Dunkley, Marshall were the correct guys to get (but I did get JCameron as well which somewhat cancelled out my good moves).
Anyone, the point with Greenwood is that at 460k, I don't really see him pushing to that 530k / 105 avg range, especially playing at GC so I feel I can get him any time around that 450k-470k range. To provide a comparison, Trac at 440k, I could definitely see a full breakout to a 105+ avg so feels like he's one to start to not miss out. If the breakout doesn't come off and he goes closer to 90-95, so be it.
Anyone, the point with Greenwood is that at 460k, I don't really see him pushing to that 530k / 105 avg range, especially playing at GC so I feel I can get him any time around that 450k-470k range. To provide a comparison, Trac at 440k, I could definitely see a full breakout to a 105+ avg so feels like he's one to start to not miss out. If the breakout doesn't come off and he goes closer to 90-95, so be it.
On Greenwood, he would've gone about 75% midfield in 2018 from 75% TOG for a 86 avg in SC. His career averages have been around that 85 avg mark. At 27 does he really improve to a high 90s SC avg? Or has he already established a scoring pattern around 85? I also wonder if he has the aerobic capacity to push 80%+ TOG for 20+ games. I doubt you would be improving your fitness levels at 27, it's more when you're younger when you would be building those base levels. Basically, my point is that I don't see the high 90s upside which I'd want to see at 460k.
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I just can't see him scoring premium numbers to start the year but I can see him picking up as a player later on in the season.
I don't disagree with your projected ceiling or floor but I think even if he gets going he's probably averaging mid 90's and by seasons end that might not even get him to a 90 average for the season. He got tagged 5 or 6 times a year in 2017 and 2018 so his average probably goes up a few extra points if we remove those tags.
Your point on Greenwood being a MID only based on 2018 is valid and he did have 74% time on ground that year. I'm arguing that he actually improved as a player last year considering he had less mid time and less time on ground and I'm using that season to project 2020. He might regress, which is definitely a concern.
I don't disagree with your projected ceiling or floor but I think even if he gets going he's probably averaging mid 90's and by seasons end that might not even get him to a 90 average for the season. He got tagged 5 or 6 times a year in 2017 and 2018 so his average probably goes up a few extra points if we remove those tags.
Your point on Greenwood being a MID only based on 2018 is valid and he did have 74% time on ground that year. I'm arguing that he actually improved as a player last year considering he had less mid time and less time on ground and I'm using that season to project 2020. He might regress, which is definitely a concern.
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Like I said though in 2019 that number was 52% midfield (I wrote the last post before I saw this response). I'll find the article where that is written. He is 27 and it's hard to trust a guy to improve at that age but he is relatively new to AFL after trying to be a basketballer, so its plausible that his skills are still improving. The aerobic capacity thing is definitely a concern, I'm hoping he can just get to above 75%. Based on how he played last year, I would say he definitely would have scored high 90's with 75% time midfield and 76% time on ground as he scored 85 with 52% midfield and 72% time on ground.
To me and I might be over simplifying things from previous years ...... Whitfield, Dusty, Heeney etc to me aint going to to stay out of reach from their current starting prices ... if anything they might drop a touch ...
So whomever you decide to grab for those potential F/4-6 places need to be a keepers (Greenwood, Dawson, Petracca, Ceglar, Steven, Smith, Lynch etc)
- Possibly scope to upgrade 1 or 2 of them ... but as we know best laid plans rarely work ...
So whomever you decide to grab for those potential F/4-6 places need to be a keepers (Greenwood, Dawson, Petracca, Ceglar, Steven, Smith, Lynch etc)
- Possibly scope to upgrade 1 or 2 of them ... but as we know best laid plans rarely work ...
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