Analysis Rnd 5: Anatomy, Daedalus And Sisyphus' Rock.

[Rowsus]

Last year the Anatomy thread successfully suggested in Rnd 11, that Macrae was the biggest sell we had seen in 3 seasons.
This year, the Daedalus and Sisyphus' Rock Defenders and Midfielders threads gave you a lead into when players might be getting too expensive to trade in, based on their best and most recent history.

This thread won't be reproduced each week, but just as time and need dictates.

Keep in mind, the analyses are looking at the remainder of the season. What a player has done up until now, or even in the next 6, 8 or 12 games has no bearing on whether the analyses have been successful or not. It is only when we see the complete figures for the season, that we can judge how well these analyses have gone.

 

[Rowsus]

Patrick Cripps - $682,500 - Ave 142.0 - B/E 73 - Priced at 134

PIT65 history: Best - 2018: 22/119, 2nd Best 2016: 21/106 - most recent 2018: 22/119

Expectation: Coming into 2019 Cripps had played 81 games in 5 seasons, with only one season of 22 games, in 2018. Sitting on 81 games, and coming into his 6th season still leaves the possibility for improvement, as his Scoring Pattern is not necessarily set yet. Against that, you really don't want to be predicting too many players into the 120+ area, as it is really hard to reach, especially if you are looking at PIT65 averages!
My thoughts are Cripps will have a raw figures season of something like 21/121-122. That becomes a PIT65 of 21/119.

Cripps is priced 15 above his best, and most recent season. 15 points is the tipping point for the Daedalus and Sisyphus' Rock range. I would err on the side of caution, and say he is now too expensive to trade in, but as I say, he is sitting right on that tipping point. with his B/E, we can expect he will be firmly pushing the Rock, come Round 6, so maybe this Round is your last chance to get him.

Anatomy: The anatomy analysis uses slightly different processes from Daedalus, so the answers can be slightly different. If you are not familiar with the table below, I suggest you click on the link in the opening post. That will take you to last years Anatomy thread, and will explain the tables, and how we use them to adjust a players expectations for the season.



The table has Cripps overpriced by 17/game. His distribution of scores wouldn't cause me to make any adjustments this Round, so I'm happy to look at a 117 average, from here to the end of the season. If you were into micro managing, you could adjust his season total up by 10, or his weekly up by 0.4. This calculated by looking at his actual scores, and subtracting the average expected scores for each bracket his current scores fall in. So:

(116 + 126 + 157 + 169) - (115 + 128 + 152 + 163) =10

This indicates he's roughly 10 ahead of where he could be, with scores falling into those brackets.

His expected average from here is obviously quite a bit lower than his current 142 average. This table would suggest he is priced too highly to be traded in this week.

Final verdict
One has him right on the tipping point, and the other has him too expensive. My thoughts are, unless you are incredibly bullish on Cripps, and can get him this week, without wrecking your structure, you are best to wait. Given he will rise in price, in all probability, next Round, this means you might have to wait at least 4 Rounds before you consider him again.

Too expensive now = pass/wait

 

[Rowsus]

Lachie Neale - $681,900 - Ave 146.0 - B/E 82 - Priced at 134

PIT65 History: Best 2016: 22/113, 2nd Best 2018: 22/112 - most recent 2018: 22/112.

Expectation: Coming into 2019 Neale was on 135 games, and this is his 8th season. I'm not one that puts great stock in changing clubs, changing a players scoring potential. Outside of a potential spike season, he has an established scoring pattern. He has only missed 3 games in the past 5 seasons, so I will say 22/113 is a reasonable expectation for him.

Neale is now pushing Sisyphus' Rock up that big hill. Priced 21 above his best and expectation means it would be a bit silly to look at trading him now. You will be spending too much money, which means you will be making compromises elsewhere later.

Anatomy:



We can see that Neale has filled 3 of his top 4 expected scores already, and 4 of his top 7. Cripps has only filled 2 of his top 4, and 4 of his top 15. This would lead me to adjust Neale's table and expectations. Remember, where I choose to adjust, and place the adjustment, might be different to you, so we may not come up with the same results. Neale's table now looks like this:



The original table had Neale scoring 22 x 113 = 2,486 points for the season.
By shifting 2 of his scores, and recalculating the points brackets accordingly, we can adjust his expectation like this:

2,486 + (177 + 127 + 140 + 140) - (110 + 122 + 134 + 145) = 2,559
That adjusts his season expected average up to 116.3, and his expected average from here up to
(2,559 - 584) / 18 = 110.3

The good thing with this method is, you are not wildly changing your expectations. You are not suddenly turning Neale from an expected 113 player, to 4 games later, a 120+ player.

Even with this adjustment, Neale is now heavily overpriced, by 24/game. That is paying far to much, for his expected return.

Final verdict
Both methods have him overpriced. He's pushing the Rock, and well overpriced on his expected average from here.

Too expensive now = pass/wait

 

[Rowsus]

Jack Macrae - $674,900 - Ave 127.0 - B/E 146 - Priced at 133

PIT65 History - Best 2018: 19/119, 2nd Best 2017: 22/107 - most recent 2018: 19/109.

Expectation: Coming into 2019 Macrae had 6 seasons, and 118 games under his belt. That means his scoring pattern is pretty much set, and we were just left to decide if his 2018 effort was his new norm, or if it represented some sort of mini spike. He has missed 10 games in the past 5 seasons, 7 games in the last 3, and 3 games last season. An expectation of 20 games in 2019 is reasonable. My own thought were, he'd struggle to maintain his 127.1 average from last season, and a combination of things like extra attention, Libba back etc, might see him fall to the 122-123 area, so I will set my raw expectation at 20/122.5 and his PIT65 expectation at 20/117.3.

Macrae is now priced at 15.7 higher than his PIT65 expectation, that crosses the threshold, and has him pushing Sisyphus' Rock. The good thing for those that don't have him, is that his B/E is creeping up, and he could be coming down in price soon.

Anatomy



All of Macrae's score fall into the fat part of his table, so no need to adjust anything. The table has him overpriced by 11/game, which is getting to the avoid him stage, but isn't quite there yet. The fact that he has a 146 B/E might give you reason to just wait, and see where his price goes.

Final verdict
One has him overpriced by too much, the other says he is just within the buy range, but using caution might be better.

Highish B/E this week = wait

 

[Bomber18]

Awesome thread. Definitely helps answer my own conundrums I’m facing in my side not owning any of Neale, Macrae or Lloyd. Neale was definitely one that people needed to start but I agree that he’s one to leave alone for the time being given his current price.

I think I can get Lloyd + one of Macrae/Neale pre byes. Hoping that Macrae can fall down to low 600ks with a few <110s and can be one I can bring in prior to his bye (for Walsh). Unless Neale cops some tags and can come back down to a reasonable price point before then. Will look to get the other of Neale/Macrae after their bye (possibly for Brouch).

Oliver/JKelly types are a bit more appealing at this stage for me. I’ve fallen into the trap before of chasing players pushing the Sisyphus Rock out of FOMO (cough Bont 2017 - 120+avg not in my side, 95avg in my side). The value premium route often works because of that regression factor (unless there’s some other red flag involved).

 

[Rowsus]

Jake Lloyd - $620,500 - Ave 123.5 - B/E 124 - Priced at 122

PIT60 History - Best 2018: 22/112, 2nd Best 2017: 21/86 - most recent 2018: 22/112.

Expectation: Lloyd was rolling along at about 90 until Round 8 last season, then just went nuts, coming home his last 15 games at 122. He actually jumped by 26 on his best season ever! The question that needed to be answered was, was it an extended hot streak, like Jordan Lewis, or Leon Davis experienced, or was it a genuine step forward in improvement? History says that players making that sort of improvement in one season rarely back it up, and they drop back a bit the next season. He has 3 games in 4 seasons, but only 1 in the past 3 seasons. Keeping in mind, we need to look at this from a pre-Round 1 point of view, I'm saying coming into the season he was looking at a 22/109 season.

LLoyd is priced at around 13 higher than his expected scoring. That means he's not pushing the Rock, but he's eyeing it off pretty closely. He's not quite in the Daedalus zone, he's stuck between the Rock and a hard place! (c'mon, you knew the joke was coming sooner or later!)

Anatomy



Lloyd's scores fall mainly in the fat area of his table, as such, I don't think we need to change anything. The table has him overpriced by 16/game, which is probably a little more than what you should be aiming for.

Final verdict
One says he's just inside the buy area, the other says just outside. Probably of the big ticket players, he is the safest buy this week, on a price per expected return.

If you have the opportunity for a big ticket player, without stretching too much. Lloyd might be your man this week.

 

[Rowsus]

Lachie Whitfield - $605,200 - Ave 129.25 - B/E 65 - Priced at 119

PIT60 History: - Best 2018: 22/100, 2nd Best 2017: 15/86 - most recent 2018: 22/100.

Expectation: 2019 is Whitfield's 7th season, and he had played 114 games by the end of 2018. That generally means his scoring pattern is set, though there can be exceptions. Looking at those numbers above, a best of 22/100 and a 2nd best of 15/86 makes you want to be cautious of going too high. Keeping in mind he was suspended for the first 6 or 7 Rounds of 2017, the 15/86 is probably unfair, and might rightly read as 15/98. I think a 21/102 expectation is not unreasonable. That gives him a PIT60 of 21/100.

He's got Sisyphus' Rock rolling up that hill, the questions is, how far can he push it? He's priced 19 over his best and expectation, which would generally sound warning bells, and suggest you tread carefully.

Anatomy



Similarly to Neale, Whitfield has filled 3 of his top 4 scores. We need to adjust that, so he has room for more.



We adjust our expectation for Whitfield like this:

102 x 22 + (157 + 105 + 123 + 132) - (99 + 110 + 120 + 131) = 2,301 or a season average of 104.6

That's his original expectation, plus the scores he has recorded already, then subtract the average score from the rows the scores occupy.
It has him overpriced by 20/game still.

Final verdict
Both analyses have him overpriced by 19 or 20/game. His B/E has his price going up further, so it looks like you need to put him aside for 4 Rounds or more.

Too expensive now = pass/wait

 

[Rowsus]

Travis Boak - $561,300 - Ave 128 - B/E 58 - Priced at 111

PIT60 History: - Best 2013: 21/104, 2nd Best 2014: 21/104 - most recent 2018: 22/88.

Expectation: Boak has only missed 3 games in the past 6 seasons, his averages, working back from the most recent, and going back to 2013 are: 88, 85, 91, 99, 106, 107. Those last 2 from 5 and 6 years ago are his career bests, and he is nearly 31 years old now. Let's be generous, and give him an expectation 22/91.

He's now priced 20/game higher than his expectation, which has him fairly and squarely pushing Sisyphus' Rock up that hill.

Anatomy



The table for players expected to average under 100 is different, as we can see. Boak has already overloaded his top scores for the season, so we definitely need to make an adjustment!



Boak has been adjusted up to:

91 x 22 + (119 + 123 + 134 + 136) - (90 + 99 + 109 + 136) = 2080, or 94.5/game.

This still has Boak overpriced by 24/game.

Final verdict
Both say that Boak is overpriced, and you only need to stop and think. Do you really want to pay $561,300 for a player that hasn't averaged over 99 in the past 4 seasons, over 92 in the past 3 seasons, or over 107 ever?
I'll put it in other terms. For close to that price you can get Sloane, Merrett, Treloar or Oliver. Ok, they aren't Fwds, but surely you can see, that they are more likely to give you the correct return on your $560k, than Boak, based on most recent seasons.

He's gone up $82,000 now = Good luck to those that started him, but you'd be crazy to chase him now!

 

[Rowsus]

Awesome thread. Definitely helps answer my own conundrums I’m facing in my side not owning any of Neale, Macrae or Lloyd. Neale was definitely one that people needed to start but I agree that he’s one to leave alone for the time being given his current price.

I think I can get Lloyd + one of Macrae/Neale pre byes. Hoping that Macrae can fall down to low 600ks with a few <110s and can be one I can bring in prior to his bye (for Walsh). Unless Neale cops some tags and can come back down to a reasonable price point before then. Will look to get the other of Neale/Macrae after their bye (possibly for Brouch).

Oliver/JKelly types are a bit more appealing at this stage for me. I’ve fallen into the trap before of chasing players pushing the Sisyphus Rock out of FOMO (cough Bont 2017 - 120+avg not in my side, 95avg in my side). The value premium route often works because of that regression factor (unless there’s some other red flag involved).

Thanks B18,
one of the things people tend to lose sight of is, that money is a finite resource in this game. FOMO tends to lead people to overpay for too many players, which leads to either compromised picks later in the season, or clutching at straws, and hoping for some luck. Quite often the difference between a top 1,000 and a top 10,000 finish, is just the timing of your trades, and the price that you paid. Timing is everything, and FOMO is the devil on your shoulder. Most of us are needing to target 8-10 players to complete our team. Wanting a Macrae, Neale or Lloyd type, if you don't have them is natural, but you are much better targetting the other 5 or 6 players that might complete your team, rather than paying too much for the big ticket items you don't own. Is it possible that leads to you missing out on them? Absolutely. But paying 130 for a player that ends up returning you 110, and then compromising on an 85 player for F6, because you are out of funds is poor economy. Even if he stays up above a 120, which history says not too many do, the combination of that 120+ player and the 85 F6 probably isn't any better than choosing 2 other players, that are more reasonably priced.
Remember, set expectations for your trade in players. Their current season average is quite often a very poor guide to what they'll produce going Forward, particularly early in the season.

 

[Bomber18]

Thanks B18,
one of the things people tend to lose sight of is, that money is a finite resource in this game. FOMO tends to lead people to overpay for too many players, which leads to either compromised picks later in the season, or clutching at straws, and hoping for some luck. Quite often the difference between a top 1,000 and a top 10,000 finish, is just the timing of your trades, and the price that you paid. Timing is everything, and FOMO is the devil on your shoulder. Most of us are needing to target 8-10 players to complete our team. Wanting a Macrae, Neale or Lloyd type, if you don't have them is natural, but you are much better targetting the other 5 or 6 players that might complete your team, rather than paying too much for the big ticket items you don't own. Is it possible that leads to you missing out on them? Absolutely. But paying 130 for a player that ends up returning you 110, and then compromising on an 85 player for F6, because you are out of funds is poor economy. Even if he stays up above a 120, which history says not too many do, the combination of that 120+ player and the 85 F6 probably isn't any better than choosing 2 other players, that are more reasonably priced.
Remember, set expectations for your trade in players. Their current season average is quite often a very poor guide to what they'll produce going Forward, particularly early in the season.

Excellent advice. More important this year as I think just based on gut feel, we don't have as many strong cash generating rookies compared to previous seasons. Even Butters, Parker, Clark types have begun to stall. Hopefully, the Scrimshaw, Duursma, Collins types can keep on going. I don't have Wilkie or Miers : (

 

[Rowsus]

If there are players you want looked at, and IF I have time, AND the player interests me as well, I will be happy to try and get to them for you.

 

[Yasi]

Hi @Rowsus and great read and love the tables. Interested in the GWS mids and in particularly Coggs if you get a chance.

 

[Zoku Pops]

Awesome thread mate, I'm missing all these players but Whitfield so comforting to see that there should be light at the end of the tunnel and history show these players can't keep it up.

 

[Kingkongbunndys]

WOW ROWSUS, super impressive, you put ASH CHEWA TO SHAME...??

 

[Shaahorn]

WOW ROWSUS, super impressive, you put ASH CHEWA TO SHAME...??

Have you ever seen the both of them in the same room? Hmmm...

 

[Rowsus]

Hi @Rowsus and great read and love the tables. Interested in the GWS mids and in particularly Coggs if you get a chance.

Just looking at Cogs figures, I can see there is no need for a full work up.
Price $537,200 - B/E 108 - priced to score 106
PIT65 History - best: 2018 21/106, 2nd best: 2016 21/104
Scores this season: 154, 52, 102, 104 - Ave 103
This is his 8th season, and has played 122 games so far, so Scoring Pattern should be set.
Has a habit of missing games: 21, 7, 21, 18, 14, 18, 12
I would have thought a 20-21/105-107 expectation was reasonable.
Puts him in right in the Daedalus zone. No need to adjust his table with those scores.

 

[Yasi]

Just looking at Cogs figures, I can see there is no need for a full work up.
Price $537,200 - B/E 108 - priced to score 106
PIT65 History - best: 2018 21/106, 2nd best: 2016 21/104
Scores this season: 154, 52, 102, 104 - Ave 103
This is his 8th season, and has played 122 games so far, so Scoring Pattern should be set.
Has a habit of missing games: 21, 7, 21, 18, 14, 18, 12
I would have thought a 20-21/105-107 expectation was reasonable.
Puts him in right in the Daedalus zone. No need to adjust his table with those scores.

Thanks Rowsus,

If Fyfe misses again I may sideways to him. Nice looking draw coming up and the little cash return gives me the option of Butters to Rocky this week.

 

[Ironhawk]

Nice work.

Any chance of having a look at Bontempelli? Looks like his score improvement this year should be sustainable, but I may be wrong.

 

[Blue Dragons]

Not sure if you need more games of data but...Josh Kelly?

 

[TommyGobbler]

Would be keen to see Tom Stewart or Shannon Hurn if either of those interest you @Rowsus